ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 161258
SPC AC 161258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2003

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N GON 25 SE IPT 25
S ROC 50 SSW SLK 15 SE LCI 30 N GON.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE PNC 40 SW PHP
10 SSE PIR 25 N SZL 45 NW CGI 65 E MKL 30 NE CBM 35 NNW ESF 20 NNE
GGG 25 NNW PRX 25 ESE PNC.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL RESULT IN THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD
ACROSS WY TO TRACK SSEWD TODAY TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 12Z
SATURDAY.  MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT SHEARS EWD OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND.

EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL MO TO THE OK PANHANDLE.  THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NERN STATES TODAY...WHILE THE WRN
EXTENT OF THIS FRONT MOVES SWD INTO TX TO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. 

...OZARKS INTO TN VALLEY/NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
AS THE WY SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY...A SURFACE WAVE IS PROGGED TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS NERN OK/SWRN MO BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  IN RESPONSE TO
60-90 M HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING SEWD FROM ERN KS TO NRN AR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND NOSE INTO
NERN OK ADVECTING HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES NEWD. INCREASING UVVS
WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JETS COMBINED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL AID IN DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS.
 WLY COMPONENT TO DEEP LAYER FLOW SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL BE
PRIMARILY ELEVATED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIALLY OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING WAA WITH A STRENGTHENING
LLJ WILL SUPPORT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AR/SRN
MO THIS EVENING.  ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED...WITH INSTABILITY OF
500-1000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR FAVORING AN ISOLATED
HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE EWD INTO NWRN MS/WRN TN OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ VEERS WLY...
ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO THIS REGION FROM THE WEST AND RESULTS IN
WEAKER INSTABILITY.

..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 10/16/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$