ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 021256
SPC AC 021256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST SUN NOV 02 2003

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW MFE 30 SSW ALI
20 E CRP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N SRQ 15 NNW DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW MSS 20 SSE SYR
10 E FKL 25 SSE UIN 50 S EHA 25 WNW LAA 10 S ANW 25 NNW LSE 15 ESE
APN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION...


LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO LITTLE CHANGE TODAY WITH A RIDGE
DOMINATING THE SERN STATES AND A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IN
THE W. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH AND WILL SERVE TO MODULATE THE OCCURRENCE OF
CONVECTION FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NERN U.S. SWWD THROUGH
CNTRL KS AND INTO SRN CO WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM NERN KS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. BACK EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY NEWD TODAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH BACKING LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. ENHANCED FRONTAL LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE PROCESSES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER EPISODE
OF ELEVATED STORMS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
MUCAPE ALONG/N OF THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL IN MOST AREAS. AN
EXCEPTION IS OVER WRN KS WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES EXIST AND THE 12Z
DDC SOUNDING SHOWS 1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED 5%
PROBABILITIES FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ELEVATED STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN KS THIS EVENING.

..DIAL.. 11/02/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$