ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 011254
SPC AC 011254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST MON DEC 01 2003

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE UPPER-TROUGH ACROSS SERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EWD TODAY. AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY.

...ERN GREAT LAKES...
WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE LAKES WITH 850 MB WINDS INCREASING TO ABOUT 45 KT. THIS COMBINED
WITH NEARLY SATURATED MOISTURE PROFILES AT LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY
AROUND LAKE ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS
SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE LOW-LEVELS BY
LATE AFTERNOON SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES. HOWEVER...WILL NOT OUTLOOK A THUNDER AREA BECAUSE
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10%.

...SOUTH TEXAS...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD THROUGH NRN TX. WELL
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S F
MAINLY ACROSS SRN TX. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON...MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE A FEW LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE CELLS. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD KEEP THE
CONVECTION ISOLATED AND BELOW THUNDER OUTLOOK CRITERIA.

..BROYLES/GUYER.. 12/01/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$