ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 051627
SPC AC 051626

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW ADM
45 NNW FTW 10 W MWL 20 S ABI 50 E BGS 45 NNE BGS 35 E LBB 15 N CDS
20 SSW CSM 40 E CSM 30 SSW OKC 35 NW ADM 20 WSW ADM.

...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SWWD INTO
SWRN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD. STRONG SRN STREAM FLOW
EXTENDS FROM SRN AZ NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES EWD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. 

...SWRN OK/TX...
WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SEWD FROM NV
INTO AZ...WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LOCATED IN THE SRN
STREAM ACROSS NRN BAJA. ETA MODEL ALSO PICKS UP ON THESE TWO
SYSTEMS AND EJECTS THE SYSTEMS EWD OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
RESULTING IN BROAD LOW LEVEL ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE 850 MB WARM THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NM SEWD TO NEAR
HOU. CURRENTLY...THE AIR MASS IS DRY...BUT BRO/CRP SHOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SURGING NWD. THE THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL MOISTENING ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW LESS THAN 100 J/KG
OF ELEVATED MUCAPE...BUT THE DEGREE OF LIFT FROM APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SUGGEST
THE INSTABILITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN SHOWN ON THE MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BEST THREAT OF THUNDER WILL BE AFTER 06Z ACROSS
SWRN OK/NWRN TX WHERE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN ADVANCE
OF EWD MOVING 850 MB LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN
STEEP.
 
SOME CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TX THIS
AFTERNOON IN STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION...BUT STABLE LAYER
ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT DEPTH OF CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING THREAT.
     
..IMY.. 02/05/03
 
NNNN