ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 171653
SPC AC 171652

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW LFK 35 E AUS 55 WNW AUS 20 NNW BWD 15 E
CDS 30 W GAG 45 W GCK 25 WNW IML 35 W MHN 25 ENE VTN 40 SSW MHE 15
SSW SUX MKC 20 W HRO 30 SW HOT SHV 35 SW LFK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 W PNS 45 NE MOB 15 S TOI 10 NE ABY 25 W AYS 25 SSW SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE CRP 40 SSE JCT
40 SW ABI 40 SW CDS 35 SSW AMA 30 SSW CVS 20 E CNM 40 SSE ELP
...CONT... 10 SE DUG 40 NE YUM 40 NNW TRM 50 N BFL 30 E RBL
60 N LMT 25 SE RDM 70 NNW BNO 30 SW BKE 65 WNW BOI 50 WNW OWY
10 N EKO 25 SSE ENV SLC RWL 60 SSE GDV 40 SW P24 30 SW JMS
55 N ATY 40 ENE RWF MCW IRK ARG 30 SSW PBF 25 SSE LCH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE MOB
30 ESE MEI 10 SSW TCL 30 S HSV CHA 10 SSW AVL CLT 25 ESE OAJ.



MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE IS THE STRONG VORTEX DEVELOPING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AT THIS TIME AND FORECAST TO MOVE AND DEEPEN OVER
NRN/CENTRAL NM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOW
MOVED NWD OVER SRN AL AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE NWD INTO THE TN/OH
VALLEY REGION TONIGHT.

...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS STATES...
MODELS STILL TRYING TO FOCUS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD ACROSS WRN KS AND THE
ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO W CENTRAL TX AND THE TX BIG BEND.  AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S ACROSS OK AND INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
TX.  MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM EXTREME
S TX NWD INTO CENTRAL TX.  THE MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE MOSTLY OVER ERN OK TURNING SEWD INTO SWRN KS THIS
AFTERNOON.  MUCH OF THIS EFFECT IS FROM THE WEAKENING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NWD OVER SRN AL.

AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SURFACE DRYLINE AS IT
MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN OK/NRN TX.  BOTH THE ETA AND ETAKF SHOWS THAT
CAPES ARE MOSTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1000 J/KG...WHILE THE LATEST
RUC FAVORS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG.  

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SWRN KS SWD THRU WRN OK INTO NWRN TX. 
ANALYSIS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE ETAKF HAS LOWER LCL/LFC
HEIGHTS COMPARED TO THE ETA WITH THE ETA A LITTLE DRIER IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.  THUS...SIDED WITH THE IDEA THAT HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS MAY BE THE BETTER THREAT WITH THIS INITIAL VORTICITY LOBE AS
IT MOVES NWD AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THE LARGE VORTEX.  LINE OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
ERN/NERN OK/TX EARLY TONIGHT.  THERE IS A MINIMAL PROBABILITY OF
TORNADOES MAINLY ACROSS S CENTRAL OK/N CENTRAL TX CENTERED ALONG
THE RED RIVER WHERE THE MAIN DRYLINE SURGE IS EXPECTED.  THIS IS
WHERE THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JETS WILL BE AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE 40-50 KT.  BUT OF CONCERN IS THE LACK OF LOW
LEVEL WINDS INTO TONIGHT.  ETAKF DEVELOPS THE LOW LEVEL JET JUST E
OF THE DFW METROPLEX NWD INTO CENTRAL OK BY 00Z /30-40 KT/.  IF
THIS VERIFIES THERE CAN BRIEFLY BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS EARLY THIS EVENING.

...ERN GULF COAST AND FL...
WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING NWD ACROSS SRN AL...THE
THREAT SEEMS TO BE LESSENING ACROSS FL.  BUT...THE MODELS INDICATE
40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  QUESTION IS ACTIVITY NOW OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL AS
IT LOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT WLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PENINSULA BY LATER TODAY WHICH
WILL ALSO LESSEN THE THREAT.  HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL
DEVELOP AS HEATING DESTABILIZES THE AREA ONCE AGAIN AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA.  STRONG WINDS AND HAIL LOOK TO BE SOME
THREAT ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.
 
..MCCARTHY.. 03/17/03

NNNN