ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 011605
SPC AC 011603

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 NE JCT 60 ENE P07 FST 20 S TCC 30 WSW CAO 30 NW TAD FCL
50 N CYS 25 SSE CDR 25 NE VTN 60 E ANW 35 SSE BIE 35 ENE BVO
30 SSW DUA 25 ENE SEP 35 NE JCT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE OLF 15 NW DIK
40 WNW MBG BKX 30 SSW OTG 50 E OMA 50 NW POF MSL 35 ENE 0A8
15 ENE ABY SSI ...CONT... 35 SW GPT 30 SE ESF 25 NNE CLL 15 S SAT
35 NW LRD ...CONT... 40 WSW MRF 50 NNW GDP 25 N DMN 25 E SAD
35 SSE SOW 25 ESE INW 30 ENE PGA 10 N 4HV 55 ESE VEL 20 S LND
40 SE WEY 40 N FCA.



...SYNOPSIS...

WITH RIDGE POSITION TO REMAIN JUST OFF W COAST...A WNWLY FLOW
REGIME WILL PREVAIL FROM THE PAC NW ACROSS  MUCH OF CONUS TO THE
TROUGH JUST OFF E COAST.  EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGH IN WNWLY FLOW
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CO/WY DROPS SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT.  

LEE TROUGH HIGH PLAINS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING THRU TX
INTO OK/KS THRU TONIGHT AS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY WWD
THRU CENTRAL BEGINS TO RETURN NWD.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
WELL DEFINED S/WV TROUGH WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOW CROSSING
CENTRAL WY/NWRN CO WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT WHICH
WILL ENHANCE THE ALREADY INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS.  BY MID AFTERNOON THE AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM
ERN NEB PANHANDLE SWWD TO NEAR PUB SHOULD BE FOCUS FOR RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH APPROACH OF S/WV
TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPWARD MOTION FIELD.  VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES SUPPORT  SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE
EVENT...HOWEVER STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS'S BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THEY PROPAGATE EWD/SEWD INTO THE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW ACROSS WRN TX/OK. PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND CONCERN DURING
THE EVENING AS MCS ORGANIZES.    

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ACROSS WRN TX
OVERNIGHT...WITH VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF TX PANHANDLE...PARTICULARLY SRN PORTION WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING.  MUCAPES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE 3500 J/KG AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS.  PRIMARY
THREAT SHOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS WITH ONLY 
ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THE MARGINAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

   

 
 
..HALES/JEWELL.. 06/01/03
 
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