ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 071629
SPC AC 071629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT THU AUG 07 2003

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW
MOT Y22 10 E SNY 25 SSE AKO 25 NW LIC 25 SE FCL CYS DGW SHR LVM 10
SSW S80 ALW 40 E EPH 35 NNW 63S

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE DRT 50 NE DRT
40 S SJT 35 E BGS 25 SSW AMA 40 SSE LVS 25 WNW 4CR 35 W ELP
...CONT... 10 WSW YUM 25 N IGM 20 NNE SGU 35 E SLC 35 N RKS 50 WSW
CPR 50 ESE WRL 30 NNW WRL 50 SSE 27U 30 SW DLS 50 NW DLS 75 WNW 4OM
...CONT... 60 NNW DVL 35 NNW ABR 35 ENE MHE FLV 25 SSE FYV 60 WSW
MLU 25 NE HEZ 35 NE GWO 30 SSE POF 40 SE OTM 30 ESE CID 40 WSW CMX

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER TROUGHS NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST AND
OVER THE ERN STATES AND AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS.  SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ERN TROUGH: ONE
IS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND A SECOND
DROPPING SEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY.  IN THE WEST...A VORTICITY MAX
MOVING INTO SERN WA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEWD INTO SERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY
FROM THE CAROLINAS ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS WSWWD INTO LA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD/SEWD.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS...
SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND ERN MT MAINTAINING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN.  SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 50S OVER MUCH OF THIS
REGION...INCREASING TO THE LOW 60S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN MT
INTO ERN CO.  STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 - 8.5 C/KM
COUPLED WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IN NEARLY CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION...WITH SBCAPE RANGING FROM
1000-1500 J/KG OVER WRN MT TO 2500-3000 J/KG OVER ERN MT SWD INTO
ERN CO.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER ERN WA AND EXTREME NRN ID IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VORTICITY MAX MOVING ACROSS SERN WA.  THIS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON AFFECTING
PRIMARILY ERN WA/NRN ID/EXTREME NWRN MT.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE STORMS
SUGGESTING THAT NEW UPDRAFTS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE
CURRENT CONVECTION.  STRONG SSWLY WINDS ALOFT /40-45 KT AT 500 MB/ 
ARE PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ENHANCE STORM
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND
GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT WITH VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THE
ETA/ETAKF/RUC AND GFS. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC
ANALYSES INDICATE A VORTICITY MAX/JET STREAK LIFTING NEWD ACROSS
SERN ID ATTM...AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS FEATURE PLACES IT INTO
SWRN/SOUTH CENTRAL MT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY SUPPORT NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN MT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH WINDS THAT VEER AND INCREASE WITH
HEIGHT INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ANY PERSISTENT STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
BECOME SEVERE...INCLUDING POSSIBILITY FOR HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS.
DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATES PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE NEWD/EWD TONIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...SERN WY INTO NERN CO...
MOIST SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS OF 55-60F EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT
WEAKEN SWD WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
WITH HEIGHT WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA.  SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND DRIFT SLOWLY EWD.  STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED
WITH DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER/STEEP LAPSE RATES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS. 
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO SERN STATES...
VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS PRESENT ACROSS THIS REGION WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. A BAND OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SRN GA INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING EWD
TOWARD SERN GA/NRN FL AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MAY DISRUPT THE CIRCULATION STRUCTURE OF THE
EXISTING CONVECTIVE BAND.  IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTIVE BAND...NEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SC INTO LA. 
WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND DIMINISH LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH MAY
TEMPER UPWARD PARCEL ACCELERATIONS.  ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEAK LAPSE RATES/MARGINAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS.

..WEISS/JEWELL.. 08/07/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$