ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 231625
SPC AC 231625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2003

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CZZ 20 SSW TRM
20 SSW BLH 30 WNW GBN 50 NW TUS 10 WSW DUG ...CONT... 40 NW CTY 20
WSW SAV 35 E SAV ...CONT... 15 SW ISP 30 ENE POU 40 SSW ALB 25 N AVP
IPT 30 SE PSB 20 W AOO 10 N LBE 20 NNW PIT 30 NE CLE ...CONT... 40
NW PLN 25 ENE GRR 25 SSE HUF 10 ESE SLO 10 NE STL 50 WNW STL 25 NNW
COU 40 SW IRK 30 ENE LWD 30 ENE DSM 25 WNW ALO 25 SSW RST 30 SE STC
30 W DLH 90 NW CMX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD
THROUGH TONIGHT AS NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES SEWD FROM
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...T.S. MARTY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NRN
GULF OF CA.  SEE LATEST TCPEP3 FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
FOR DETAILS.


...NEW ENGLAND AND THE FL PENINSULA...

STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD ACROSS ERN NY STATE AND THE NJ COAST
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/NEWD TODAY.  LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS SWD FROM SERN VT/SWRN NH THROUGH CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ATTM
AND WILL BRING A THREAT OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO SERN ME INTO ERN MA
 THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE LINE IS MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...BUT SOME DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS OCCURRING WITH
THIS LINE AND MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WINDS NEXT FEW
HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SWD/SEWD THIS AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS ACROSS FL IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG.  LACK OF
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED SHEAR AND DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ACTIVITY
BELOW SEVERE LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.

...IA/NRN MO AND IL...

STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET 45-55 KT FORMS IN
ADVANCE OF ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN MID/UPPER TROUGH.  MORNING RAOB
ANALYSIS SHOWED 850 MB DEW POINTS OF 10/11C OVER THE TX HIGH PLAINS
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE ADVECTED NEWD TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS NRN
MO/IA. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
THETA-E ADVECTION WHICH WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
BETWEEN 6.5 TO 7.5C/KM TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.  ELEVATED...ISOLATED
 THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL.

...EXTREME SRN CA AND MUCH OF SRN AZ...

BANDS FROM T.S. MARTY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY. 
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S.

..MCCARTHY.. 09/23/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$