ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL COR
ACUS01 KWNS 152009
SPC AC 152009 COR...COR OTLK GRAPHICS


STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SE MOB 60 N PNS DHN 40 NE CTY 30 SE JAX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NE BFL 40 W BFL 50 N PRB 25 E SJC SCK 30 NE SCK 50 NNE MER
30 NE FAT 65 ESE FAT 10 NE BFL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW MOB 35 SE MEI
BHM 10 NNW ATL 10 NNW AGS 35 N CHS 35 N CRE OAJ 30 WSW HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW EKA MHS LMT
RDM PDT 65 SE S80 20 SW PIH 30 ESE U24 55 WSW PRC 70 ESE YUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP CVS 40 NNW LBL
EAR SUX FOD LWD 30 ESE ICT DUA SHV POE BTR 25 NNW BVE.

...CALIFORNIA...
CORE OF INTENSE...ZONAL MID/UPPER PACIFIC JET CONTINUES TO NOSE
TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...JUST UPSTREAM OF
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...WHICH IS GRADUALLY MIGRATING INLAND.   
EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER-SCALE TROUGH...AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS ALREADY SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.  VAD WIND
DATA INDICATE LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES.  50+ KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...HOWEVER...STILL
PROVIDES SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION...ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. 

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO
DAYTIME HEATING OF RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS BENEATH MID-LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH /WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -25C/.  PACIFIC FRONT WILL
NOT CLEAR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY UNTIL EARLY EVENING...SO SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS
CONTINUES...PARTICULARLY NEAR FRESNO WHERE VAD WIND DATA SUGGEST
LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ACTUALLY BACKED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.

...FLORIDA...
IN MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...LATEST OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 2000 J/KG.  MID-LEVELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY COOL/LAPSE RATES
SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN STRONGEST CONVECTIVE CELLS...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  SEA BREEZES WILL PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...MAINLY SOUTH OF
WEAK SURFACE FRONT WHICH NOW EXTENDS SOUTH OF MELBOURNE INTO THE
TAMPA AREA.

IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO COLD UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA...
BENEATH MODERATE MID-LEVEL JET...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT INCREASING MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THIS REGION MAY PROVE
INHIBITIVE.

...TEXAS...
STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH /EMBEDDED
WITHIN BELT OF WESTERLIES CURVING ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO/ IS SHIFTING OFF THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF.  MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY
TO SHIFT EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
MOIST MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
TEXAS.  FORCING ON TAIL END OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ARE WEAK...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT.
 
..KERR.. 03/15/03

NNNN