ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 151954
SPC AC 151953

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HLC
20 W CNK MHK PNC 20 NE FSI 65 SE CDS 25 WSW CDS 25 SE GCK HLC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 W P07 15 WSW LBL GLD 50 ESE AIA 9V9 AXN RHI 55 ENE GRB
30 ESE OSH 20 NW CID JLN ADM 40 NNW DRT 30 W P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE TOL
35 SSE SBN 40 SE MMO 35 WNW SPI 35 SE UIN 25 ESE VIH 15 NW HOT TXK
35 WSW TYR 10 E TPL 25 W AUS 25 NW SAT 40 WNW HDO 25 E DRT
40 NW DRT 10 S P07 30 ESE FST 25 NW MAF 25 NE CNM 10 WSW ELP
45 SW DMN 75 E DUG 20 SW DUG 30 S U17 30 NW 4HV 55 WNW VEL
25 S WEY 25 NNE LVM 65 SW GGW 25 ENE GDV 40 ENE BIS 40 ESE BJI
40 NE CMX ...CONT... 25 SE AUG 20 S LEB 25 NW BUF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE GPT
30 NNW LUL 15 SSE TUP 40 NNW MSL 50 ENE BWG 15 SE 5I3 40 NE HKY
50 ESE AGS 30 WSW AQQ.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
POWERFUL MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM...PER CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED 90KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL
TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE TX PNHDL INTO OK...WHILE SUBTROPICAL JET
NOSES EWD ACROSS WRN AND NRN TX. AT THE SURFACE...RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS IS IN PROGRESS OVER CNTRL/NERN CO WITH A SHARPENING
DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD THROUGH WRN KS INTO THE CNTRL TX PNHDL AND
WRN TX. CONCENTRATED AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS FROM ERN CO SWD INTO
ERN NM/WRN TX SUGGEST THAT FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS.

MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH HAS INHIBITED HEATING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE TX PNHDL/W TX INTO OK SO FAR TODAY CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EWD...WITH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING OCCURRING FROM CNTRL
NEB SWD THROUGH WRN KS INTO THE TX PNHDL. AIRMASS TO THE E OF THE
DRYLINE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 1000-2000
J/KG. AS ONGOING TSTMS OVER THE WRN TX PNHDL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD
INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS...INTENSIFICATION WILL
OCCUR WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY FARTHER E ALONG TCU FIELD
FROM S OF HLC TO DDC SWD TO NEAR LBB. 

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT FROM CNTRL NEB
SWD THROUGH WRN/CNTRL KS INTO WRN OK/WRN TX WILL BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FOR SEVERE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. THE BACKED NATURE OF THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
NEB SWD INTO NRN KS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE INTO A
LINEAR MODE SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION. FARTHER S ACROSS SRN KS INTO
THE ERN TX PNHDL/WRN OK INTO WRN TX...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
ERN TX PNHDL INTO NWRN OK/SWRN KS WHERE HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS/GREATER BOUNDARY-LAYER RH ARE CO-LOCATED WITH STRONG LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES.

AS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK EJECT INTO THE PLAINS
THIS EVENING...EXPECT TSTM COVERAGE TO INCREASE RAPIDLY ALONG
SURGING DRYLINE FROM WRN/CNTRL NEB SWD THROUGH CNTRL KS INTO WRN OK
AND WRN N TX. AN ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST AT
THIS TIME ACROSS NRN OK INTO SRN KS BENEATH MID-LEVEL JET AXIS.   

...SD/MN/WI...
EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER ERN NEB TRANSLATING NEWD. AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM A WEAK LOW OVER SERN/S-CNTRL SD ENEWD ACROSS SRN MN
INTO CNTRL WI. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER E-CNTRL WI ALONG
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS/POINT FORECASTS
SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS CAPPED...HOWEVER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY EXISTS ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION WITH MUCAPES OF
1000-2000 J/KG. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ADDITIONAL TSTMS
/PRIMARILY ELEVATED/ SHOULD DEVELOP WWD ALONG AND N OF THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
AS FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND 30-40KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME DAMAGING WINDS.  
 
..MEAD.. 04/15/03

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