ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 072004
SPC AC 072004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT THU AUG 07 2003

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW
OLF 55 SSE Y22 20 SE PHP 25 SSE AKO 25 NW LIC FCL 30 E DGW 30 W GCC
15 WNW BIL DLN 45 SW 3DU 45 NNE MSO 20 N CTB

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW YUM 25 N IGM
20 NNE SGU 35 E SLC 35 N RKS 50 WSW CPR 50 ESE WRL 30 NNW WRL 50 SSE
27U 55 NE BKE 30 N PUW 35 NNE 4OM

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE LCH 30 S ESF
25 WSW JAN 20 SSE VIH CID 15 N EAU IMT 15 SE ANJ

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N MOT 50 SSE 9V9
15 WNW MHK 45 ENE TXK 35 S SHV 15 ENE TPL 50 WSW ABI 15 S LBB 35 S
CVS 25 ENE ALM 10 W SAD 35 ESE DUG

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MT INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...MT INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...
SEVERAL WEAK / SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN INTO SERN ID / NWRN WY / S CENTRAL MT IN STRONGER BELT OF SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH...WHILE STRONGEST VORT MAX CONTINUES
MOVING NNEWD ACROSS NERN WA / NRN ID INTO SERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. 

AIRMASS HAS BECOME MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE ACROSS MT WHERE 500 TO 1000
J/KG 100 MB MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED...ALTHOUGH DRY AIR AND
ASSOCIATED CIN EVIDENT AT LOW- TO MID-LEVELS IN ETA / ETAKF
POINT-FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAS SUPPRESSED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT 
THUS FAR.

HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSAGE OF WEAK FEATURES
ALOFT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING -- WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT. WITH 30 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW
FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION...SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
/ ROTATING HIGH-BASED STORMS.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CAN
BE EXPECTED AS STORMS MOVE NEWD TOWARD W CENTRAL / CENTRAL MT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FURTHER SEWD ACROSS ERN WY / NERN CO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WRN SD /
THE NEB PANHANDLE...AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL FLOW DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS AREA
DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER RIDGE.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...THEY SHOULD REMAIN LESS ORGANIZED / MULTICELLULAR...WITH
THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT LIKELY TO BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN
25-PLUS DEGREE F LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.

OVERNIGHT...STORMS MAY SPREAD EWD INTO WRN SD / WRN NEB AS LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.

...THE SOUTHEAST...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING EAST OF THE MS VALLEY BENEATH
LARGE UPPER TROUGH.  WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DISORGANIZED.  GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT -- IN THE FORM OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR
MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL -- APPEARS TO EXIST FROM THE GULF COAST OF LA
/ MS / AL NWD ACROSS ERN AL AND THEN EWD ACROSS NRN GA / WRN SC
ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY / NEAR UPPER VORT MAX MOVING INTO NRN
AL.

..GOSS.. 08/07/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$