ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 231958
SPC AC 231958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2003

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE TLH 35 N AYS 35
NNW CHS 25 S ILM ...CONT... 15 WSW ISP 25 N MSV 25 WSW SYR 45 N BUF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW ANJ TVC 15 NW
AZO 30 NNW IND 35 SSW HUF 10 W SLO 10 NE COU 45 SW IRK 30 ENE LWD
MCW 30 E STC 25 W INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 35 N IPL
50 E BLH 25 WSW PHX 25 NNE TUS 10 SSW DUG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER MIDWEST...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
F ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE WILL GET TRANSPORTED NWD AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE SWIFTLY SEWD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT. LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE WEAK BUT LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE WILL MARGINAL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD BAND OF
50 TO 60 KT MID-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST
AND OH VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT
WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL THE
MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MAKE THE SEVERE THREAT
MARGINAL AND A SLIGHT RISK IS NOT WARRANTED ATTM.

..BROYLES.. 09/23/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$