ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 051959
SPC AC 051959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SUN OCT 05 2003

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW
JCT 65 WSW SJT 10 SW INK 10 NW CNM 20 SSW ROW 30 NE ROW 35 SSE CVS
25 ESE PVW 50 SSE CDS 35 ENE SEP 15 NNE TPL 35 WSW TPL 15 NW JCT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW FHU 80 WNW TCS
30 WSW GNT 50 NNW GUP 30 E NFL 20 NNE SVE 25 N LMT 25 NNW RDM 15 N
PDT 30 SE S80 55 SSW JAC 25 SW CSM 30 SSE FSI 20 NNW DUA 35 SE FSM
JBR 20 SW CKV 30 W CSV 40 ESE CHA 15 SW ATL 20 NE MGM 30 NNW LUL 10
S ESF 40 NW BPT 55 SSE AUS 20 WSW HDO DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND
NCNTRL TX...

...WEST AND NCNTRL TX...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED FROM JUST SOUTH OF
ACT WWD TO LBB AND NWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. MTN CONVECTION IS
ONGOING ACROSS SERN NM AND FAR W TX. OTHER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN W TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS
MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY AROUND 1500 J/KG NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WILL AID
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS IT DRIFTS EWD INTO WCNTRL TX THIS EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 30 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. SFC HEATING AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION AT THE MID-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES MAKING LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION. A STORM CLUSTER IS EXPECTED AFTER DARK
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO NCNTRL TX. DECREASING INSTABILITY AND
LESSENING LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE THE SEVERE THREAT TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 10/05/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$