SPC Day 1 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 20Z 20031015


ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 151938
SPC AC 151938

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2003

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CAR 35 WNW BGR
40 N BML.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS 25 E TUS 45
SSE SAD 30 S DMN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN NEW ENGLAND...

DEEP SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NNEWD ACROSS SRN QUEBEC WHILE
TRAILING LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF ME THIS EVENING.  LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A NARROW
PIE-SHAPED WEDGE OF PARTIAL CLEARING MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER WRN ME AHEAD OF WIND
SHIFT...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT NEWD AND POSSIBLY DEEPEN
SUFFICIENTLY TO OBTAIN LIGHTNING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

...SWRN U.S...

STRONG SFC HEATING BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND SRN AZ
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO RECENT CU DEVELOPMENT...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE U.S. BORDER.  ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS
MAY YET DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SERN AZ OR PERHAPS EXTREME
SWRN NM BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE.

..DARROW.. 10/15/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$