ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 291954
SPC AC 291954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CST WED OCT 29 2003

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ORF 50 SSW RIC
25 E CHO AVP POU 45 NNE BML.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HQM 25 SSE 63S GTF
Y22 STC 25 WNW RST SPW VTN BFF LAR SLC 60 N ENV 65 SSW BOI 45 N LMT
OTH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN TRANSITION UNDERWAY ACROSS CONUS AS NERN TROUGH
EJECTS FROM GREAT LAKES REGION...AND PACIFIC NW TROUGH CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY.  THIS IS RESULTING IN STRONG SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS WRN NEB TONIGHT.  DESPITE
VIGOROUS FRONTOGENESIS...ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER IS EXPECTED N AND NW
OF SFC FRONT FROM NRN PLAINS TO PACIFIC NW.  MEANWHILE...SFC LOW
OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NNEWD THEN NWD INTO ERN QUE...AS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

...COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDS OF MAINLY
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NEW ENGLAND.  SEVERE
GRADIENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SFC WITH OCCASIONALLY DAMAGING
NONCONVECTIVE WIND REACHING GROUND.  A FEW CONVECTIVE GUSTS MAY BE
SUPERIMPOSED ON THIS WIND FIELD...HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF LIMITED
NEAR-SFC INSTABILITY...SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE BELOW
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK CRITERIA.  DOWNWARD TREND ALSO EXPECTED IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

WARM SECTOR IS NARROW...BUT NEUTRALLY TO MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. 
ELEVATED MUCAPE E OF COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG
OVER LAND AND NEAR 600 J/KG JUST OFFSHORE...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS.  LIFTED PARCELS FOR COASTAL MAINE WILL BE ROOTED ATOP
ROUGHLY 2000 FT DEEP STABLE/MARINE LAYER...MINIMIZING BUT NOT
ENTIRELY ELIMINATING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUSTS TO
REACH SFC.  CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SUBSIDE FROM W-E ACROSS AREA
THROUGH 00Z AS SFC CYCLONE CONTINUES TO EJECT NEWD TOWARD CANADIAN
MARITIMES...YIELDING COLD FROPA.  AS LOW MOVES AWAY...SO WILL
ASSOCIATED MAX OF ISALLOBARIC FORCING...WEAKENING CONVERGENCE INVOF
TRAILING FRONT AND NEAR COAST.

..EDWARDS.. 10/29/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$