ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 301946
SPC AC 301946

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CST THU OCT 30 2003

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW OGD 50 NNE EVW
10 S RWL 30 WSW EGE 15 SSE U28 40 ESE U24 20 WSW OGD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OTH 50 ESE CEC 25 NNE
UKI 40 NW SFO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW YNG 35 SW CMH
25 S MTO 10 SSW BMI 25 N GRR 65 NNE MTC.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN ORE/NWRN CA...
COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN STEEP LOW
TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  VISIBLE SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A FEW LOW-TOPPED STORMS INVOF SWD-MOVING CYCLONIC
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NW OF CEC. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING WILL
FURTHER DESTABILIZE ONSHORE AIRMASS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONE TRACK EWD TO THE COASTAL RANGE.

...SRN GREAT LAKES...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS TRANSLATING NEWD. AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP DATA CURRENTLY SHOW THE
PRESENCE OF A 40-50KT SWLY LLJ IN PLACE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NWD
INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT WITH TIME STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG LLJ AXIS...EFFECTIVELY CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK
INSTABILITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSTMS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG NOSE OF 50-60KT LLJ WHERE
MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

...CNTRL ROCKIES...
FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM DEEPENING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5C/KM
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE MOST INTENSE
PRECIPITATION BANDS FROM NERN UT INTO SWRN WY/NWRN CO. PLEASE REFER
TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2476 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

..MEAD.. 10/30/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$