ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 021943 SPC AC 021943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CST SUN NOV 02 2003 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW MFE 30 SSW ALI 20 E CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N SRQ 15 NNW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW MSS 20 ENE ALB MSV 40 NNW DNV 25 NNE END 35 NE PVW 45 SW CVS 15 W LHX 20 SE ANW LSE 10 SW OSC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES... LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE SWD-MOVING SURFACE FRONT FROM N OF TAD ESEWD INTO THE OK PNHDL AND THEN NEWD INTO E-CNTRL KS /S OF OJC/. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SOME AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER THE ERN OK PNHDL/NERN TX PNHDL INTO NWRN OK WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 500 J/KG. THE CHARACTER OF CLOUDS OBSERVED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A CAP STILL EXISTS ACROSS THIS AREA...WHEREAS BOUNDARY-LAYER APPEARS MORE BUOYANT FARTHER NW ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE CNTRL OK PNHDL/FAR SWRN KS/NRN TX PNHDL. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL REMAINS WELL TO THE W /OVER WRN AZ/. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT ANY INITIATION OF SURFACE-BASED DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN FRONTAL ZONE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING ALONG FRONT FROM THE OK PNHDL INTO NWRN OK/SWRN KS WHERE AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED. VERTICAL SHEAR OBSERVED ON CURRENT VWPS/PROFILERS AND IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION AND INHERENT HAIL LARGE HAIL THREAT GIVEN STORM INITIATION. WITH THE APPROACH OF AZ SHORTWAVE TROUGH TONIGHT...LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO 40-50KT FROM WRN TX INTO CNTRL KS...EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER FRONTAL ZONE. MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 500-800 J/KG. ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NRN KS/SRN NEB EWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. ANY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO WRN KS...POSSIBLY INTO S-CNTRL NEB WHERE THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. ...FL PENINSULA... CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION /CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 23N 79W/ WILL TRANSLATE WWD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE NRN EXTENSION OF FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PENINSULA MAINLY AFTER 00Z. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS TIME INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1000 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ..MEAD.. 11/02/2003 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED. $$ |