ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 281958
SPC AC 281958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2003

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW
HSE 30 E RWI 25 NNW RIC 30 WNW BWI 20 SSE CXY 35 NW ILG 10 ESE PHL
25 S ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 15 SW SAV
40 WSW FLO 50 SE CLT 30 SW CLT 10 NNE HKY 20 ESE PSK 25 NW MRB PSB
20 WSW ELM 35 WSW MSS ...CONT... 75 NW CAR 50 NNE 3B1 45 NE BGR EPM
...CONT... MLB 25 SSE FMY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN NC ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO SERN PA/SRN NJ...

...MID ATLANTIC...
A SHARP COLD FRONT HAS CRESTED THE APPALACHIANS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE RAPIDLY EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND THROUGH MUCH OF NORTH
FL...THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE ISOTHERM ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT
THE FRONTAL ZONE HAS SEGMENTED EAST OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS... OVER
CNTRL NC...WHERE  HIGHER TERRAIN AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WERE INHIBITING
STRONGER LOW LEVEL CAA ON INCREASING WLY FLOW. INTENSE DEEP LAYER
CONVERGENCE AND FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE EWD INTO WEAK...BUT INCREASING
INSTABILITY FROM ERN NC NWD ACROSS DELMARVA. LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE
LINE MAY GAIN INTENSITY AS THIS OCCURS. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS...
50KT WITHIN LOWEST 1KM/75-80KT AT 500MB...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING AND PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO MIX TO
THE SURFACE AND PRODUCE DAMAGE AS THE BROKEN FRONTAL RAINBAND MOVES
EAST.

...ERN PA/NRN NJ TO SRN NEW ENGLAND....
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITH STRONG LIFT SPREADING
 EAST FROM ERN PA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THAT ATLANTIC MOISTURE/MID-UPPER 50S F SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE
SPREADING INLAND ACROSS THE NYC AREA AND LONG ISLAND. INTENSE
DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACCELERATING COLD FRONT MAY
OVERCOME RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN A LOW-TOPPED FRONTAL
SQUALL LINE ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IF THIS OCCURS.

..CARBIN.. 11/28/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$