SPC AC 200049

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0749 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

   Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging winds and marginally
   severe hail will be possible in parts of the central and southern
   High Plains this evening.

   ...Central and Southern High Plains...
   The latest water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture
   from the Texas Panhandle northward into western Kansas and central
   Nebraska. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in this plume where
   the RAP is suggesting that low-level winds are maximized.  Although
   large-scale ascent is likely weak across the region, a strengthening
   30 to 40 kt low-level jet this evening will help convection to
   continue for several more hours. The airmass from the Texas
   Panhandle northward into the central High Plains is characterized by
   low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints and weak to moderate instability
   (MLCAPE 1000 to 3000 J/kg) according the observed soundings. In
   addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs at Amarillo, Dodge City and Goodland
   have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 kt range. With this amount of
   shear, storm organization is not expected. However, the instability
   should be great enough for a marginal severe threat with the
   stronger multicells. Wind damage and hail would be the primary
   threats.

   ..Broyles.. 09/20/2019

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