Click-to-scroll-up Image
Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Dec 4, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Dec 4 05:35:29 UTC 2022 (Print Version | 20221204 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20221204 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 040535

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1135 PM CST Sat Dec 03 2022

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are probable across parts of northwest
   California and the far southern Oregon coast through tonight.
   Sporadic lightning flashes are also possible across the Desert
   Southwest this afternoon.

   ...Synopsis...
   Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a broad upper ridge over the Gulf
   of Mexico/southern CONUS with an upper low off the northern
   California coast. This regime is expected to evolve slowly over the
   next 24 hours as the upper wave gradually moves onshore. As this
   occurs, cold temperatures aloft will overspread deep Pacific
   moisture sampled by 00 UTC soundings along the West Coast. This
   thermodynamic regime is already supporting sporadic lightning
   flashes off the CA coast under the low, and will likely maintain
   adequate buoyancy for thunderstorms through tonight across northwest
   CA and perhaps the far southern OR coast. Despite the shallow nature
   of the convection, strong speed shear within the CAPE-bearing layer
   may support weakly organized cells capable of sub-severe hail this
   afternoon; however, the potential for intense, severe convection
   appears low.

   Across the Desert Southwest, a persistent stream of Pacific moisture
   from Baja California will maintain nearly saturated profiles across
   southern AZ and southwest NM. Weak isentropic ascent combined with
   muted daytime heating and modest cooling aloft will likely yield
   sufficient buoyancy for sporadic lightning flashes this afternoon
   and early evening. Slim CAPE profiles and weak ascent will limit the
   overall intensity and longevity of convection.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 12/04/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: December 04, 2022
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities