SPC AC 090059

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0659 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

   Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
   PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND WESTERN PARTS OF
   THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
   tornadoes will continue shifting across the Gulf Coast region
   through early Tuesday morning, from southern Louisiana eastward to
   the western Florida Panhandle.  Strong tornadoes are possible.

   ...Discussion...
   Strong/occasionally severe thunderstorms are ongoing this evening --
   near and ahead of a cold front that currently stretches from the
   Ozarks southward across north-central Louisiana, and then
   southwestward along the Texas Coast.  Ahead of the cold front,
   warm/moist air continues streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico,
   with a warm front draped west-northwest to east-southeast across
   southern Louisiana.

   The warm front continues to make gradual northward/northeastward
   progress in tandem with the eastward advance of the cold front,
   which will allow the narrow warm sector between the two boundaries
   to shift across the central Gulf Coast region through the remainder
   of the period.

   While some risk for hail will persist overnight even north of the
   warm front, the primary severe risk will remain focused near and
   south of this boundary, where dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s
   continue to support an amply unstable airmass for strong updrafts.

   The main contributor to the degree of wind/tornado potential
   currently forecast remains the very strong -- and intensifying --
   deep-layer wind field preceding the main upper system (that is now
   advancing into/across the central/southern Plains).  As the
   southerly low-level jet further strengthens across this region, atop
   southeasterly surface winds in proximity of the warm front, shear
   highly favorable for strongly rotating supercells is evident.  While
   weak boundary-layer stability even within the warm sector --
   especially with eastward extent overnight -- should place some limit
   on the overall tornado/wind risk, the offsetting high-end wind field
   across this region will support potential for significant severe
   weather locally, both in the form of damaging winds, and strong
   tornadoes.  Risk should extend as far east as central portions of
   the Florida Panhandle through latter stages of the period.

   ..Goss.. 01/09/2024

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