SPC AC 020044

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0644 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023

   Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL
   GULF COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Some tornado risk will be noted with convection along the central
   Gulf Coast tonight.

   ...01z Update...

   Broad upper ridging will hold across the Gulf Basin tonight, though
   some influence of an approaching upper trough will affect Coastal TX
   late. In response to this trough, a weak surface low should evolve
   along the frontal zone over the western Gulf then advance northeast
   toward the western LA Coast. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to
   increase this evening, strengthening into southern AL/western FL
   Panhandle after midnight.

   Latest radar data suggests low-level warm advection may be
   increasing across the northwestern Gulf, immediately ahead of the
   expected low track. Considerable amount of deep convection has
   evolved across this region and this activity should gradually
   develop/spread northeast into LA. 00z sounding from LCH exhibits
   MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with surface-based parcels buoyant now that
   70F dew points have moved inland. Considerable warm layer is
   currently observed between 2-3km AGL, slightly more than 18z NAM
   suggested would exist at 00z. However, this warm layer is forecast
   to quickly erode over the next several hours and parcels should
   freely convect within the strengthening warm advection regime.
   Deep-layer flow/shear supports supercells, though low-level shear
   will remain a bit weak in the short term, before gradually
   strengthening into the overnight. Current thinking is
   scattered-numerous thunderstorms will ultimately evolve along the
   central Gulf Coast and embedded supercells may pose at least some
   risk for a few brief tornadoes.

   ..Darrow.. 12/02/2023

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