SPC AC 280100
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
Valid 280100Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over the the northwest
and central Gulf Coast tonight.
...Synopsis...
A belt of strong and largely zonal flow extends from northern NM
east to the lower OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic states
tonight. Early evening water-vapor imagery shows a disturbance over
the central High Plains and this feature will move to the lower MO
Valley by early Tuesday morning. In the low levels, a residual
frontal zone is draped west to east across the coastal plain of the
central Gulf Coast states. A cold front over the southern Great
Plains will overtake this boundary later tonight, with the composite
boundary surging southward into south TX and the northwest Gulf of
Mexico by daybreak. Isolated to widely scattered
showers/thunderstorms will probably develop tonight along the
boundary from the Edwards Plateau and central TX eastward along the
central Gulf Coast. Localized wind damage may occur near the
central Gulf Coast with the stronger storms. However, the primary
severe risk will be isolated large hail. Removed the Edwards
Plateau from low-severe probabilities based mainly on a notable
warming of 500-mb temperatures and weakened mid-level lapse rates
compared to earlier this morning (i.e., reference the 12 UTC to 00
UTC DRT lapse rate change).
..Smith.. 03/28/2023
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