SPC AC 251556

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1056 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

   Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND
   NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible this
   afternoon/evening, focused in northern Illinois, southeast Iowa, and
   northeast Missouri.

   ...IA/IL/MO...
   A large upper ridge is centered over the lower MS Valley today, with
   the primary westerlies extending across the northern Plains into the
   Great Lakes.  Water vapor imagery and model guidance hint at a
   subtle shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max over
   northern KS.  This feature will track eastward into IA this
   afternoon, with weak large scale forcing overspreading the mid MS
   Valley.  Parts of IA/MO/IL were affected by overnight and morning
   convection, but that activity is moving out of the area and will
   allow strong afternoon heating/destabilization to occur.  This will
   yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg over eastern
   IA/western IL and northeast MO.

   Thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon along a weak cold
   front over eastern IA/western IL and build westward into northeast
   MO.  These storms will track southeastward along the instability
   gradient across parts of central IL and eastern MO during the
   evening before slowly weakening after dark.  Wind fields are
   relatively weak, but strong buoyancy values and organization into a
   QLCS will result in a risk of strong/damaging wind gusts.

   ...KY/TN/AL/FL...
   Morning surface analysis shows an axis of low-mid 70s dewpoints from
   the FL Panhandle into much of AL, middle/east TN and eastern KY. 
   Strong heating will aid in the development of scattered afternoon
   thunderstorms.  Low and mid level winds are relatively weak, but
   sufficient upper-level flow, strong CAPE, and favorable low-level
   lapse rates support a risk of pulse and multicell severe wind
   events.

   ..Hart/Jirak.. 06/25/2022

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