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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 19, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 19 16:26:55 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240719 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240719 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 191626

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

   Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN
   KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered to numerous severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible this
   afternoon into tonight across portions of the central Great Plains.

   ...Central/southern Great Plains...
   Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows several clusters
   of sub-severe thunderstorms over central/northern NE into SD ahead
   of a southeastward-migrating mid-level shortwave impulse.  The
   disturbance is evident in water-vapor imagery and approaching the
   Black Hills vicinity.  The mid- to upper-level anticyclone over the
   Great Basin/Desert Southwest will move little during the period, and
   aid in allowing the aforementioned disturbance to move southeastward
   into eastern NE/western IA later tonight.  

   Morning surface analysis places a moist axis from western KS
   northward into west-central NE and SD with lower 60s deg F surface
   dewpoints.  This adequately moist airmass will become moderately
   unstable by mid afternoon across southwest NE southward into extreme
   eastern CO and western KS (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE).  It seems
   plausible a southward-moving cluster will emerge from the midday
   ongoing thunderstorm activity over central NE and move into a
   boundary layer featuring steep 0-3 km lapse rates.  Veering flow
   with height will support 35-45 kt effective shear and promote storm
   organization.  Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the
   stronger storms over mainly parts of NE and SD.  As additional
   storms develop, a coalescing into one or more clusters will likely
   evolve by late afternoon over the central Great Plains. 
   Additionally, scattered storm development is expected near/east of
   the Front Range with coverage forecast to increase as storms move
   into a more moist environment over eastern CO.  Upscale growth into
   one or more linear clusters is expected before an MCS evolves
   (perhaps from a merging of thunderstorm clusters) over western KS by
   this evening.  Severe gusts will be the primary hazard later this
   afternoon through the late evening.  As storms move farther
   southwest into central KS and parts of northwest OK/TX Panhandle
   later this evening, weaker instability and greater CINH will likely
   lead to a gradual decrease in storm intensity and severe risk.

   ..Smith/Squitieri.. 07/19/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: July 19, 2024
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