SPC AC 081616

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1116 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024

   Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   Recent surface observations show a nearly stalled front over north
   FL. Daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass south of this
   boundary will likely encourage the development of scattered to
   numerous thunderstorms this afternoon over the northern and central
   FL Peninsula. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with any
   downdrafts, the presence of poor mid-level lapse rates should hinder
   updraft acceleration and overall convective intensity.

   Even with upper ridging remaining prominent over much of the West,
   high-based convection may develop this afternoon over the
   southern/central Rockies, and perhaps into the adjacent High Plains
   along/near a weak lee surface trough. Limited low-level moisture and
   generally weak effective bulk shear over these regions will likely
   preclude an organized severe threat, although strong winds may occur
   with any convection that can be sustained.

   Water vapor satellite imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough
   over the Pacific Northwest this morning. This feature will move
   generally east-northeastward towards the northern Rockies through
   the period. Isolated thunderstorms may occur across interior
   portions of the Northwest this afternoon ahead of the shortwave
   trough. But, rather modest low-level moisture (surface dewpoints
   generally in the 30s/40s F) should hinder the development of any
   more than weak instability. Along with only modestly enhanced
   mid-level flow, the limited instability is expected to keep any
   severe wind threat with convective downdrafts across eastern WA/OR
   into ID and northern NV/UT quite sparse.

   ..Gleason/Halbert.. 09/08/2024

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