SPC AC 291628

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1028 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

   Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
   EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across
   parts of the upper Texas Coast/east Texas eastward along the middle
   Gulf Coast states. Some hail may occur with thunderstorms in east
   Texas. Otherwise, locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or
   two could occur across the region.

   ...Gulf Coast including Southeast Texas to Florida Panhandle...
   Recent satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough
   entering TX Hill Country/South TX. This lead shortwave is expected
   to continue east-northeastward throughout the day, moving across
   central and east TX and into the Lower MS Valley. A broad area of
   low-level warm-air advection precedes this shortwave, supporting
   elevated showers and thunderstorms from southeast TX across much of
   the Lower MS Valley and into the central Gulf Coast. 

   Recent surface analysis places the main frontal low near TYR in
   northeast TX, but another more subtle secondary low appears to be
   centered about 20 mi north of VCT. A warm front arcs northeastward
   and then eastward from this second low, delineating a more maritime
   air mass characterized by low/mid 70s temperatures and upper 60s
   dewpoints. This warm and moist air mass would be more supportive of
   surface-based storms with any storms to its north expected to remain
   elevated. Inland penetration of this more maritime air mass will be
   tempered by abundant cloud cover and continuing precipitation,
   likely confining the risk for surface-based storms to the middle and
   upper TX Coast, and perhaps the immediate coastal portions of
   southwest LA, this afternoon and into this evening. Damaging wind
   gusts associated with bowing line segments are the primary severe
   risk with these surface-based storms, but a brief tornado or two is
   also possible.

   The maritime air mass is expected to continue moving inland this
   evening father east across portions of the central Gulf Coast and
   the FL Panhandle. Warm-air advection will likely remain the primary
   forcing mechanism, keeping the majority of storms elevated north of
   more buoyant air mass. That being said, mesoscale ascent attendant
   to the eastward-progressing secondary low could still support a few
   surface-based storms. The environment is expected to remain
   favorable for bowing line segments capable of damaging wind gusts
   and perhaps a tornado or two.

   ..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/29/2023

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