SPC AC 220534

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1134 PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunder potential is less than 10% across the United States today.

   ...Discussion...

   Strong positive-tilt short-wave trough will eject across the
   southern High Plains early in the period as 100kt+ 500mb speed max
   translates across northwest TX into central IL by 23/12z. This
   feature is expected to induce a weak surface low along a pronounced
   cold front over OK which will track northeast toward the Chicago
   area by the end of the period. While strong 12hr mid-level height
   falls will spread across the mid MS Valley region, forecast
   soundings do not exhibit appreciable instability ahead of the trough
   as lapse rates should be on the order of 6 C/km through the
   potential convective layer. Model guidance does suggest elevated
   buoyancy may be just enough for weak convection between 1-6km but EL
   temperatures are somewhat marginal for more than just a few
   lightning strikes with the strongest convection. For these reasons
   thunderstorm potential appears to be less than 10%.

   Farther south near the TX coast, large-scale forcing for ascent will
   be much weaker and frontal ascent/instability appear inadequate for
   any meaningful threat for thunderstorms.

   ..Darrow/Gleason.. 01/22/2019

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z