SPC AC 271932

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0132 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021

   Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   An isolated strong storm may continue to pose a risk for severe wind
   gusts and/or an additional tornado or two across parts of
   northeastern Florida through about 4-5 PM EST.

   ...20Z Outlook Update...
   Primary lingering severe weather potential appears in association
   with the small, organized cluster of thunderstorms (with a sustained
   significant embedded mesoscale vortex) currently propagating
   eastward near the Interstate 10 corridor of northeastern Florida. 
   This probably will include a continuing risk for damaging wind
   gusts, and perhaps an additional brief tornado or two, as it passes
   near/west and southwest of the Jacksonville area through 21-22Z.
   (For further details see SPC Mesoscale Discussion 40)

   This cell may be near the southern periphery of the stronger
   mid-level height falls, with warmer temperatures aloft and weaker
   large-scale forcing for ascent limiting convective potential farther
   to the west and south.

   Otherwise, adjustments to the categorical and probabilistic lines
   have been mostly to account for the progression of the synoptic and
   subsynoptic features.

   ..Kerr.. 01/27/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Wed Jan 27 2021/

   ...FL/GA...
   Morning surface analysis shows a boundary extending from the FL
   panhandle east-northeastward to the GA coast.  Scattered showers and
   occasional thunderstorms have been occurring in vicinity of this
   boundary, including a few rotating/bowing structures.  Local VAD
   profiles suggest that low level winds are relatively veered,
   limiting the convergence along the boundary and the near-surface
   vertical shear profiles.  Abundant cloud cover will also likely
   persist through the day, limiting substantial destabilization.  CAM
   solutions suggest that deep convection will track across southern
   GA/northern FL through the afternoon. A severe storm or two is
   possible in this corridor, with locally damaging wind gusts the main
   threat.  An isolated tornado is also possible, but the overall
   severe threat appears to remain marginal.

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