Click-to-scroll-up Image
Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 11, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Feb 11 00:53:10 UTC 2025 (Print Version | 20250211 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20250211 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 110053

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0653 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025

   Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

   ...01z Update...

   850mb flow is beginning to increase across northern TX into
   southeast OK, partially in response to a weak southern stream
   short-wave trough that is approaching this region. Latest model
   guidance suggests LLJ will strengthen into the late evening hours
   then veer into the Arklatex by 11/12z. The strongest corridor of
   low-level warm advection is currently noted from central OK into the
   Ozarks. This appears to be the primary reason for ongoing elevated
   convection, with scattered updrafts penetrating levels that are
   favorable for lightning. 00z sounding from OUN supports this with
   450 J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel around 2km AGL. With time, as
   temperatures cool aloft, lapse rates should adjust and permit
   convection to develop southwest across north-central TX into the
   Edwards Plateau. Buoyancy appears inadequate for severe hail.

   ..Darrow.. 02/11/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: February 11, 2025
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities