SPC AC 161950

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0250 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

   Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN
   ARKANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The greatest concentration of severe-storm potential appears to be
   this afternoon and evening over portions of central/eastern
   Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

   ...20Z Update...
   A well-defined MCV over western/central OK is noted on radar and
   visible satellite imagery as of 1950Z. This MCV will continue moving
   east-northeastward with time, and the better severe hail/wind
   potential will likely remain along and to the east of this low-level
   circulation. Have therefore adjusted the Slight risk eastward across
   western/central OK. The Slight Risk has also been expanded slightly
   northward across northeastern KS and northwestern MO where a weak
   front/boundary will likely focus additional convective development
   and an isolated large hail/damaging wind risk this afternoon. For
   more information on the short-term severe potential across parts of
   central/eastern OK and eastern KS, see Mesoscale Discussion 1301.

   ..Gleason.. 08/16/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018/

   ...Central Plains...
   Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined MCV moving eastward
   into western OK.  Strong heating is occurring ahead of this feature
   across much of OK and eastern KS, where dewpoints in the 70s and
   steep mid level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of
   2000-3000 J/kg and little CIN.  Model guidance is consistent in the
   development of scattered thunderstorms by mid afternoon throughout
   this area.  A potent shortwave trough over NE is also digging
   southeastward toward the region, resulting in strengthening
   mid/upper level wind fields.  This will promote increased convective
   organization and the potential for a few supercells capable of large
   hail and damaging winds.  One negative factor for a more robust
   severe event is that low level wind fields are weak (generally less
   than 15 knots in the lowest 2km).  This region should remain active
   through the evening, with storms spreading eastward into western MO.


   ...OR...
   A fast-moving shortwave trough off the coast of northern CA will
   track inland later today, with large-scale lifting beginning to
   affect OR before dark.  12z CAM solutions suggest the development of
   a few convective cells over central OR later this afternoon,
   tracking east-northeastward across the MRGL risk area.  Forecast
   soundings show inverted-v profiles with sufficient CAPE to pose a
   risk of damaging winds in the most intense downdrafts.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z