SPC AC 280100

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0800 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

   Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
   TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over the the northwest
   and central Gulf Coast tonight.

   ...Synopsis...
   A belt of strong and largely zonal flow extends from northern NM
   east to the lower OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic states
   tonight.  Early evening water-vapor imagery shows a disturbance over
   the central High Plains and this feature will move to the lower MO
   Valley by early Tuesday morning.  In the low levels, a residual
   frontal zone is draped west to east across the coastal plain of the
   central Gulf Coast states.  A cold front over the southern Great
   Plains will overtake this boundary later tonight, with the composite
   boundary surging southward into south TX and the northwest Gulf of
   Mexico by daybreak.  Isolated to widely scattered
   showers/thunderstorms will probably develop tonight along the
   boundary from the Edwards Plateau and central TX eastward along the
   central Gulf Coast.  Localized wind damage may occur near the
   central Gulf Coast with the stronger storms.  However, the primary
   severe risk will be isolated large hail.  Removed the Edwards
   Plateau from low-severe probabilities based mainly on a notable
   warming of 500-mb temperatures and weakened mid-level lapse rates
   compared to earlier this morning (i.e., reference the 12 UTC to 00
   UTC DRT lapse rate change).

   ..Smith.. 03/28/2023

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