SPC AC 161948

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0248 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

   Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe risk appears likely to remain minimal today and tonight.

   ...Discussion...
   No changes to the outlook are required at this time, as prior
   reasoning and thunder areas continue to reflect the latest thinking.
    While a briefly strong/possibly severe storm cannot be ruled out
   over the Gulf Coast of Texas/Louisiana, parts of the West, including
   Arizona, this afternoon, and over the Minnesota vicinity tonight,
   risk appears too minimal in all areas to require addition of
   probability area.

   ..Goss.. 09/16/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/

   ...Synopsis...
   A deep midlevel trough, with associated cool midlevel temperatures
   and steep lapse rates, will continue to progress inland over the
   Pacific Coast today and the Great Basin tonight.  Isolated to widely
   scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the
   Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin as the trough moves eastward.
   Elsewhere, multiple shortwave troughs will eject northeastward from
   the southern Rockies into the northern Plains, resulting in the
   potential for widely scattered thunderstorms from the High Plains
   today into portions of the Dakotas/Minnesota late tonight. A weak
   mid/upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf will produce
   widespread convection, with some of this activity spreading inland
   into coastal portions of LA/TX later today and tonight. 

   While a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out across the Interior
   Northwest/Great Basin into the Intermountain West, near the TX/LA
   Gulf Coast, and also across the eastern Dakotas into MN late
   tonight, the potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to
   generally remain low through the period.

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