SPC AC 231929

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0129 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2020

   Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST
   KANSAS...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
   south-central Great Plains late this afternoon into early evening.

   ...Discussion...
   No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook.

   ..Smith.. 02/23/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020/

   ...TX Panhandle into western OK/KS...
   An upper trough is progressing eastward across the Four Corners
   region today.  At the surface, a low currently over the OK Panhandle
   will deepen this afternoon and move slowly northeastward into
   southwest KS.  Southerly low-level winds in the associated warm
   sector will help to transport an increasingly moist air mass
   (dewpoints in the lower 50s) into the vicinity of the low.  Visible
   imagery suggests this region will see considerable sunshine today,
   helping to steepen low-level lapse rates and yield afternoon MLCAPE
   values of around 500 J/kg.

   Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the low during
   the mid-late afternoon as midlevel heights fall and surface heating
   weakens the cap.  Most 12z CAM solutions suggest isolated storms
   will develop sufficient organization to pose a risk of small to
   marginally severe hail as they track northeastward into southwest KS
   and eventually weaken.

   Farther south in western OK, slightly more moist/unstable conditions
   may aid in an isolated strong storm or two continuing after dark. 
   While the overall risk of severe storms appears marginal, hail or a
   brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

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