SPC AC 180447

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1147 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN
   GULF COAST...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from
   central/eastern Texas into the Southeast, and over portions of the
   central Plains. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this
   activity.

   ...Central Plains...
   A shortwave trough is forecast to develop southward from the
   Canadian Prairies into the Plains, providing modest northwesterly
   flow aloft along the western periphery of the eastern trough. At the
   surface, modest boundary-layer moisture will reside ahead of a
   south/southeastward-advancing cold front. A lack of better quality
   moisture will limit instability, but heating into the 80s F and
   steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE values of 500-1500
   J/kg. Effective shear around 30 kt will support at least a transient
   supercell threat, along with a few organized clusters during the
   afternoon along/ahead of the front. Strong to severe gusts and
   marginally severe hail will be possible with the strongest cells
   through early evening.

   ...Central TX into the Southeast...
   Substantial boundary-layer moisture will remain ahead of the
   east-west-oriented surface front. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
   to low 70s F and areas of strong heating will result in moderate to
   strong instability, with MLCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg. PWAT
   values will be high at around 2 inches. Vertical shear will remain
   weak, with mostly unidirectional/westerly deep-layer flow over the
   region. The combination of strong instability and weak shear in the
   presence of a surface boundary will mainly support initially intense
   updrafts with limited organization. As a result, the main severe
   threat with thunderstorm clusters through the afternoon will be
   limited to damaging gusts in water-loaded downdrafts.

   ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 08/18/2022

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