SPC AC 281238

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0738 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024

   Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

   ...Synopsis/Discussion...
   The mid/upper-level pattern features mean ridging over the West and
   troughing in the East. The pattern is anchored by a large, nearly
   stacked cyclone -- resulting from the combination of an antecedent
   midlatitude low with the post-tropical remnants of Helene.  The
   cyclone should remain centered over the lower Ohio Valley region,
   drifting/wobbling erratically eastward over northern KY through the
   period, while continuing to fill.  The strongest associated mid/
   upper-level winds should remain mostly behind a low-level frontal
   zone extending from the northern Gulf across northern FL to the
   coastal Carolinas.  South of the boundary across parts of peninsular
   FL, sufficient low-level moisture remains -- amid weak to negligible
   MLCINH and a deep troposphere with modest but sufficient lapse rates
   for convection.  This will support scattered thunderstorms today
   over FL, with isolated thunderstorm potential over coastal areas of
   GA/Carolinas near the boundary.  Dry midlevel air and lack of
   greater flow/shear should keep severe potential too isolated and
   disorganized for an outlook. 

   Elsewhere, just east of the mean ridge and amid northerly flow very
   peripheral to the cyclone, a patch of marginally favorable low/
   middle-level moisture should combine with diurnal heating of higher
   terrain over parts of northern NM and southern CO.  Scattered
   showers are expected this afternoon, with isolated to widely
   scattered convection extending above a mid/upper-level stable layer
   and into icing regions suitable for lightning generation.  Isolated
   thunderstorms also are possible amid weak but sufficient low-level
   moisture and instability around parts of the eastern Great Lakes.

   ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/28/2024

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