SPC AC 080540
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Sat May 08 2021
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
Scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central
Plains. Some of these storms will pose a risk for very large hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes.
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a notable mid-level
short-wave trough approaching the lower CO River Valley. This
feature is forecast to eject across the southern Rockies this
afternoon, then into the central Plains during the evening. In
response, focused lee trough/dry line will establish itself across
the TX/OK Panhandle region where very strong boundary-layer heating
and steep low-level lapse rates will develop this afternoon.
Forecast soundings along the dry line suggest surface temperatures
will soar into the mid 90s across the eastern TX Panhandle with near
90F possible into southwestern KS. As a result, convective
temperatures will be breached by 22z and isolated thunderstorms
should develop near DDC vicinity, then spread/develop northeast
ahead of the surface low, along/ahead of an advancing cold front.
Forecast shear strongly supports supercells and very large hail
appears possible with this activity. As these storms spread
northeast, more moist low-level environment would seem to support
some potential for tornadoes...especially if storms are not undercut
by the advancing cold front. Earlier thoughts regarding the tornado
potential across this region remain focused across portions of
central/north-central KS along the northern edge of strongest
boundary-layer warming. Upscale growth into an MCS is possible
during the evening across northeast KS and this complex should
propagate toward central MO, aided by an increasing LLJ into this
region after sunset.
It's not entirely clear how many storms, if any, will form south
along the dry line, especially south of I-40 despite the intense
surface heating. However, isolated supercells are expected to
develop across eastern CO as the cold front surges south during the
evening. These storms should spread southeast toward southwest KS/OK
Panhandle with an attendant threat for mainly hail/wind.
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