SPC AC 191953

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0153 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

   Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this
   afternoon into early evening, and pose at least some risk for a
   tornado and locally damaging wind gusts.

   ...20z Update...
   The previous forecast remains on track as a line of thunderstorms
   continues to migrate south/southeast across the FL Peninsula. The
   30-40 mph eastward motion of individual convective elements within
   the line is limiting residence time within the warmer/more buoyant
   air mass over land and favoring maximum convective intensity along
   Florida's east coast. Several severe wind gusts and a few 1-inch
   hail stones have been reported in the past couple of hours, and
   consideration was given for introducing 5% hail risk probabilities.
   However, the linear organization of the convection should limit the
   potential for additional supercells, and a general weakening trend
   is anticipated through early evening as the line continues
   south/southeast. It remains somewhat unclear exactly when the severe
   wind threat will fully diminish, especially given recent KMLB VWP
   observations showing 40-50 knot winds within the 2-3 km layer ahead
   of the convective line. To account for this uncertainty, the
   Marginal risk was expanded slightly southward ahead of the line, but
   convection should be sufficiently weak later this evening as it
   moves into south FL to preclude risk probabilities.

   ..Moore.. 01/19/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025/

   ...FL Peninsula...
   Expansive upper troughing covers the entirety of the CONUS this
   morning, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft throughout the base
   of this trough extending from the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico across
   the Mid-Atlantic States and FL. Surface analysis places a low over
   central NC. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through
   southeast GA and the FL Big Bend. Modest troughing precedes this
   front across central FL, with broad low-level confluence in the
   vicinity of this pre-frontal troughing contributing to showers and
   thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy persists over the region, with
   mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 500 to 750 J/kg.

   Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout the
   day as the cold front and pre-frontal troughing both shift gradually
   southward. The environment will remain strongly sheared (i.e.
   effective bulk shear around 50-55 kt) throughout the afternoon,
   supporting the potential for a few more organized storms capable of
   damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado or two. Wind
   fields will weaken with southern extent, with deep-layer vertical
   shear weakening as well. As such, the severe potential will likely
   maximize this morning into the early afternoon across the central FL
   Peninsula.

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