SPC AC 220534
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Thunder potential is less than 10% across the United States today.
Strong positive-tilt short-wave trough will eject across the
southern High Plains early in the period as 100kt+ 500mb speed max
translates across northwest TX into central IL by 23/12z. This
feature is expected to induce a weak surface low along a pronounced
cold front over OK which will track northeast toward the Chicago
area by the end of the period. While strong 12hr mid-level height
falls will spread across the mid MS Valley region, forecast
soundings do not exhibit appreciable instability ahead of the trough
as lapse rates should be on the order of 6 C/km through the
potential convective layer. Model guidance does suggest elevated
buoyancy may be just enough for weak convection between 1-6km but EL
temperatures are somewhat marginal for more than just a few
lightning strikes with the strongest convection. For these reasons
thunderstorm potential appears to be less than 10%.
Farther south near the TX coast, large-scale forcing for ascent will
be much weaker and frontal ascent/instability appear inadequate for
any meaningful threat for thunderstorms.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z