SPC AC 250525

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1125 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated weak thunderstorms are expected across portions of central
   and southern Florida.

   ...Florida...

   Weakening mid-level short-wave trough over east TX is forecast to
   deamplify further over the next 24-36hr as it tracks across the Gulf
   States and off the SC/GA Coast Tuesday night. This feature will
   prove partly responsible for forcing a weak surface low across the
   northern Gulf Basin where it will be shunted southeast and further
   weaken, well west of the southern FL Peninsula. Air mass over FL is
   currently cool and dry, and significant moistening is required
   before sufficient buoyancy will be in place for potential
   thunderstorm development. While low levels need considerable
   moistening before SBCAPE can develop, mid-level saturation is
   forecast by early evening such that elevated convection appears
   possible after sunset. Where surface dew points can rise into the
   upper 60s along the southern Gulf Coast, there is some potential for
   a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE by the end of the period. Regardless,
   weak surface-3km flow does not look particularly conducive for any
   meaningful threat of severe, especially given the weakening offshore
   surface low.

   ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/25/2022

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