SPC AC 200055

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0755 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

   Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will be noted across portions
   of the lower/mid-Mississippi Valley and central Plains. Strong winds
   will be the primary severe threat, though hail is possible across
   the central Plains.

   ...Discussion...

   Northwesterly flow is beginning to deepen across the MS Valley
   Region as mid-level short-wave trough shifts east across MN/IA/MO
   region. Earlier supercell activity that developed immediately ahead
   of the surface low over IA has congealed into a cluster of storms
   near the IA/IL/MO border. This convection should drive southeast
   along the MS River along the eastern edge of steeper lapse rate
   plume. Strong winds may accompany this activity as it spreads toward
   southwest IL.

   Another cluster of severe storms has evolved over the Ozark Plateau.
   This convection is gradually evolving into a small MCS with a
   well-developed squall line along the leading edge. 00z sounding from
   LZK exhibited extreme buoyancy with 5900 MUCAPE and sfc-6km shear on
   the order of 35kt. With northwesterly flow expected to strengthen a
   bit across AR, it appears this activity may spread farther southeast
   than earlier anticipated. For these reasons have expanded higher
   severe probs into extreme northeast LA and northwestern MS. Damaging
   winds are the primary risk with this convection.

   Strong heating has contributed to isolated severe thunderstorm
   development along the trailing front across southwest KS. Large hail
   and damaging winds may be noted with this activity as it spreads
   toward northwest OK later this evening. Have extended severe probs
   into northern OK to account for this possibility, although this
   convection will be strongly diurnally modulated.

   ..Darrow.. 07/20/2018

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