Click-to-scroll-up Image
Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Jun 25, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 25 15:56:46 UTC 2022 (Print Version | 20220625 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220625 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 251556

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1056 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

   Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND
   NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible this
   afternoon/evening, focused in northern Illinois, southeast Iowa, and
   northeast Missouri.

   ...IA/IL/MO...
   A large upper ridge is centered over the lower MS Valley today, with
   the primary westerlies extending across the northern Plains into the
   Great Lakes.  Water vapor imagery and model guidance hint at a
   subtle shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max over
   northern KS.  This feature will track eastward into IA this
   afternoon, with weak large scale forcing overspreading the mid MS
   Valley.  Parts of IA/MO/IL were affected by overnight and morning
   convection, but that activity is moving out of the area and will
   allow strong afternoon heating/destabilization to occur.  This will
   yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg over eastern
   IA/western IL and northeast MO.

   Thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon along a weak cold
   front over eastern IA/western IL and build westward into northeast
   MO.  These storms will track southeastward along the instability
   gradient across parts of central IL and eastern MO during the
   evening before slowly weakening after dark.  Wind fields are
   relatively weak, but strong buoyancy values and organization into a
   QLCS will result in a risk of strong/damaging wind gusts.

   ...KY/TN/AL/FL...
   Morning surface analysis shows an axis of low-mid 70s dewpoints from
   the FL Panhandle into much of AL, middle/east TN and eastern KY. 
   Strong heating will aid in the development of scattered afternoon
   thunderstorms.  Low and mid level winds are relatively weak, but
   sufficient upper-level flow, strong CAPE, and favorable low-level
   lapse rates support a risk of pulse and multicell severe wind
   events.

   ..Hart/Jirak.. 06/25/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 25, 2022
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities