SPC AC 291628
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across
parts of the upper Texas Coast/east Texas eastward along the middle
Gulf Coast states. Some hail may occur with thunderstorms in east
Texas. Otherwise, locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or
two could occur across the region.
...Gulf Coast including Southeast Texas to Florida Panhandle...
Recent satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough
entering TX Hill Country/South TX. This lead shortwave is expected
to continue east-northeastward throughout the day, moving across
central and east TX and into the Lower MS Valley. A broad area of
low-level warm-air advection precedes this shortwave, supporting
elevated showers and thunderstorms from southeast TX across much of
the Lower MS Valley and into the central Gulf Coast.
Recent surface analysis places the main frontal low near TYR in
northeast TX, but another more subtle secondary low appears to be
centered about 20 mi north of VCT. A warm front arcs northeastward
and then eastward from this second low, delineating a more maritime
air mass characterized by low/mid 70s temperatures and upper 60s
dewpoints. This warm and moist air mass would be more supportive of
surface-based storms with any storms to its north expected to remain
elevated. Inland penetration of this more maritime air mass will be
tempered by abundant cloud cover and continuing precipitation,
likely confining the risk for surface-based storms to the middle and
upper TX Coast, and perhaps the immediate coastal portions of
southwest LA, this afternoon and into this evening. Damaging wind
gusts associated with bowing line segments are the primary severe
risk with these surface-based storms, but a brief tornado or two is
also possible.
The maritime air mass is expected to continue moving inland this
evening father east across portions of the central Gulf Coast and
the FL Panhandle. Warm-air advection will likely remain the primary
forcing mechanism, keeping the majority of storms elevated north of
more buoyant air mass. That being said, mesoscale ascent attendant
to the eastward-progressing secondary low could still support a few
surface-based storms. The environment is expected to remain
favorable for bowing line segments capable of damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a tornado or two.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/29/2023
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