SPC AC 200055
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will be noted across portions
of the lower/mid-Mississippi Valley and central Plains. Strong winds
will be the primary severe threat, though hail is possible across
the central Plains.
Northwesterly flow is beginning to deepen across the MS Valley
Region as mid-level short-wave trough shifts east across MN/IA/MO
region. Earlier supercell activity that developed immediately ahead
of the surface low over IA has congealed into a cluster of storms
near the IA/IL/MO border. This convection should drive southeast
along the MS River along the eastern edge of steeper lapse rate
plume. Strong winds may accompany this activity as it spreads toward
Another cluster of severe storms has evolved over the Ozark Plateau.
This convection is gradually evolving into a small MCS with a
well-developed squall line along the leading edge. 00z sounding from
LZK exhibited extreme buoyancy with 5900 MUCAPE and sfc-6km shear on
the order of 35kt. With northwesterly flow expected to strengthen a
bit across AR, it appears this activity may spread farther southeast
than earlier anticipated. For these reasons have expanded higher
severe probs into extreme northeast LA and northwestern MS. Damaging
winds are the primary risk with this convection.
Strong heating has contributed to isolated severe thunderstorm
development along the trailing front across southwest KS. Large hail
and damaging winds may be noted with this activity as it spreads
toward northwest OK later this evening. Have extended severe probs
into northern OK to account for this possibility, although this
convection will be strongly diurnally modulated.
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