SPC AC 011638

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1138 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023

   Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Large hail along with a severe wind/tornado risk will be focused
   across eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening.

   ...Southern High Plains including Eastern NM/West TX...
   Key mesoscale factors for severe-weather potential later today are a
   composite outflow boundary and zone of differential
   heating/baroclinicity that extends roughly west-east across
   southeast New Mexico and the Texas South Plains. Convection
   continues to redevelop into midday and reinforce the
   aggregate/primary boundary across the aforementioned corridor,
   casting uncertainty/doubts on more northward-aggressive (with
   respect to boundary/destabilization) guidance such as the 12z NAM. 

   Regardless, satellite/surface observations and related trends imply
   that ample heating will occur to the west/south of this boundary
   within an air mass that continues to remain rather moist (upper-end
   of daily climatological values). The strongest destabilization is
   expected to occur across the Texas South Plains and far southeast
   New Mexico, which is where severe potential later today is expected
   to be maximized in vicinity of the modifying outflow boundary. Owing
   to moderately strong mid-level southwesterly winds (and considerably
   stronger high-level winds), wind profiles will be supportive of
   initial supercells capable of large hail. At least some tornado
   potential will be semi-focused in vicinity of the modifying
   boundary, although low-level winds are not expected to be overly
   strong, which should tend to limit the overall tornado likelihood
   and risk magnitude. Storms may again cluster with a somewhat
   localized but increasing potential for severe-caliber winds by early
   evening, potentially toward parts of the Texas Low Rolling Plains.

   Farther to the northwest, somewhat more modest, but potentially
   severe-conducive, destabilization is expected as far northwest as
   east-central/northeast New Mexico, with isolated instances of severe
   hail as the most probable hazard this afternoon and early evening.

   ...North-central High Plains...
   Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into
   early evening, near the dryline/lee trough, from near I-80 northward
   over the Nebraska Panhandle and eastern Wyoming toward the Black
   Hills vicinity. This activity may be associated with a corridor of
   relatively maximized large-scale ascent aloft, ahead of a minor
   shortwave trough ejecting northward out of northern Colorado.
   Although mid/upper-level lapse rates will be seasonally modest over
   this region, surface dewpoints in the mid 40s to mid 50s F may
   support pockets of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level/deep-layer
   shear are forecast, but isolated instances of severe hail and/or
   severe-caliber wind gusts are possible.

   ..Guyer/Weinman.. 06/01/2023

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