SPC AC 011638
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
Large hail along with a severe wind/tornado risk will be focused
across eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening.
...Southern High Plains including Eastern NM/West TX...
Key mesoscale factors for severe-weather potential later today are a
composite outflow boundary and zone of differential
heating/baroclinicity that extends roughly west-east across
southeast New Mexico and the Texas South Plains. Convection
continues to redevelop into midday and reinforce the
aggregate/primary boundary across the aforementioned corridor,
casting uncertainty/doubts on more northward-aggressive (with
respect to boundary/destabilization) guidance such as the 12z NAM.
Regardless, satellite/surface observations and related trends imply
that ample heating will occur to the west/south of this boundary
within an air mass that continues to remain rather moist (upper-end
of daily climatological values). The strongest destabilization is
expected to occur across the Texas South Plains and far southeast
New Mexico, which is where severe potential later today is expected
to be maximized in vicinity of the modifying outflow boundary. Owing
to moderately strong mid-level southwesterly winds (and considerably
stronger high-level winds), wind profiles will be supportive of
initial supercells capable of large hail. At least some tornado
potential will be semi-focused in vicinity of the modifying
boundary, although low-level winds are not expected to be overly
strong, which should tend to limit the overall tornado likelihood
and risk magnitude. Storms may again cluster with a somewhat
localized but increasing potential for severe-caliber winds by early
evening, potentially toward parts of the Texas Low Rolling Plains.
Farther to the northwest, somewhat more modest, but potentially
severe-conducive, destabilization is expected as far northwest as
east-central/northeast New Mexico, with isolated instances of severe
hail as the most probable hazard this afternoon and early evening.
...North-central High Plains...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into
early evening, near the dryline/lee trough, from near I-80 northward
over the Nebraska Panhandle and eastern Wyoming toward the Black
Hills vicinity. This activity may be associated with a corridor of
relatively maximized large-scale ascent aloft, ahead of a minor
shortwave trough ejecting northward out of northern Colorado.
Although mid/upper-level lapse rates will be seasonally modest over
this region, surface dewpoints in the mid 40s to mid 50s F may
support pockets of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level/deep-layer
shear are forecast, but isolated instances of severe hail and/or
severe-caliber wind gusts are possible.
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