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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 21, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jul 21 00:45:20 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180721 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180721 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 210045

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0745 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

   Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   TN AND KY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The greatest threat for severe thunderstorms is shifting into the
   Tennessee Valley regions and the Mid-South. Damaging gusts, large
   hail and a few tornadoes remain possible.

   ...Discussion...

   Early-evening water vapor imagery depicts a well-defined region of
   ascent/moistening across MO ahead of a pronounced short-wave trough.
   This feature is digging southeast toward the western TN Valley and
   associated 500mb speed max is forecast to spread into northern AL by
   morning. A large reservoir of buoyancy is noted ahead of this
   feature from the lower MS Valley into the western part of the TN
   Valley where MUCAPE is in excess of 4000 J/kg across much of the
   region.

   While severe thunderstorms have been primarily focused across the
   OH/TN Valley region this afternoon, there remains concern that
   severe thunderstorms could develop ahead of the aforementioned short
   wave over the next few hours then spread southeast into the
   north-central Gulf States later tonight. Large hail has been common
   with supercells across KY/TN and soundings across this region remain
   supportive of hail/wind. 00z soundings at BNA, BMX, and LZK all
   exhibit strong instability with unusually strong deep-layer shear
   for this time of year. Given these concerns will maintain
   substantial severe probs along a corridor from the mid-South into
   the TN Valley.

   ..Darrow.. 07/21/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: July 21, 2018
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