SPC AC 180042
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019
Valid 180100Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States today and tonight.
Convection, capable of producing lightning, will be sparse across
the CONUS the remainder of the period.
00z soundings across the Pacific northwest exhibit steep
low-midlevel lapse rates with weak surface-based buoyancy capable of
supporting weak convection. However, lightning has remained mostly
offshore and this activity should die off as the upper trough moves
Large-scale forcing for ascent will spread into the central Rockies
later tonight which should aid mid-level moistening/buoyancy as
profiles cool. While lapse rates will be supportive of convection it
appears lightning should be limited and mostly near the San Juan
mountains of CO.
Lightning will also remain sparse along the Gulf Coast as
forcing/buoyancy remain at very low latitudes through 12z.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z