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    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 2, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 2 00:43:56 UTC 2023 (Print Version | 20230202 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20230202 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 020043

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0643 PM CST Wed Feb 01 2023

   Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
   contiguous United States.

   ...01z Update...

   Current water-vapor imagery depicts a weak upper low over northern
   Mexico, roughly 150 mi south of FHU. This positive-tilted feature
   will advance into far west TX as the 500-mb speed max translates
   across northern Mexico/southern tip of the Big Bend region by
   02/12z. The majority of lightning, and it's currently quite
   isolated, is located in the cold-core region of this trough south of
   the international border. Downstream, weak elevated convection is
   noted within the warm conveyor from west TX into the Arklatex,
   though little lightning has been observed recently. Even so, 00z
   sounding from FWD exhibited a moist profile through 4 km with steep
   mid-level lapse rates. Lifting a parcel from this level yields
   around 150 J/kg MUCAPE, likely enough to warrant at least some
   lightning potential within the most robust updrafts.

   ..Darrow.. 02/02/2023

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: February 02, 2023
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