SPC AC 020043
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CST Wed Feb 01 2023
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.
Current water-vapor imagery depicts a weak upper low over northern
Mexico, roughly 150 mi south of FHU. This positive-tilted feature
will advance into far west TX as the 500-mb speed max translates
across northern Mexico/southern tip of the Big Bend region by
02/12z. The majority of lightning, and it's currently quite
isolated, is located in the cold-core region of this trough south of
the international border. Downstream, weak elevated convection is
noted within the warm conveyor from west TX into the Arklatex,
though little lightning has been observed recently. Even so, 00z
sounding from FWD exhibited a moist profile through 4 km with steep
mid-level lapse rates. Lifting a parcel from this level yields
around 150 J/kg MUCAPE, likely enough to warrant at least some
lightning potential within the most robust updrafts.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z