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    Day 2 Outlook >
Oct 18, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 18 00:42:55 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20191018 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20191018 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 180042

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0742 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

   Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
   States today and tonight.

   ...01z Update...

   Convection, capable of producing lightning, will be sparse across
   the CONUS the remainder of the period.

   00z soundings across the Pacific northwest exhibit steep
   low-midlevel lapse rates with weak surface-based buoyancy capable of
   supporting weak convection. However, lightning has remained mostly
   offshore and this activity should die off as the upper trough moves
   inland.

   Large-scale forcing for ascent will spread into the central Rockies
   later tonight which should aid mid-level moistening/buoyancy as
   profiles cool. While lapse rates will be supportive of convection it
   appears lightning should be limited and mostly near the San Juan
   mountains of CO.

   Lightning will also remain sparse along the Gulf Coast as
   forcing/buoyancy remain at very low latitudes through 12z.

   ..Darrow.. 10/18/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: October 18, 2019
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