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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 4, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jul 4 00:56:13 UTC 2022 (Print Version | 20220704 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220704 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 040056

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0756 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

   Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The most concentrated corridor of severe storms, including potential
   for significant severe wind/hail and a few tornadoes, is forecast
   across parts of Montana into southwest North Dakota through this
   evening.

   ...01z Update...

   Latest satellite imagery and diagnostic data suggest a weak
   short-wave trough is topping the ridge over central MT. Scattered
   convection has developed ahead of this feature with multiple
   thunderstorm clusters now evident from south-central into eastern
   MT. Easterly low-level is maintaining moisture across the northern
   High Plains which is contributing to MUCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg
   across much of eastern MT, south of a front draped from west of
   GDV-into the Dakotas. With LLJ expected to increase across the
   central High Plains into the Dakotas after sunset, a continued
   eastward propagation of the overall convective field is likely.

   Another notable short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across CO
   toward western NE. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms have
   developed ahead of this feature within a favorable zone of low-level
   warm advection from north of SNY-west of CNK. This corridor will
   remain active, especially as LLJ strengthens over the next few
   hours.

   ..Darrow.. 07/04/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: July 04, 2022
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