SPC AC 020100

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0800 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024

   Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail
   will be possible this evening across parts of the southern High
   Plains, Ohio Valley, southern Appalachians, and western Great Lakes.

   ...Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians...
   Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough over the
   north-central U.S., with another weaker shortwave trough over the
   Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing
   ahead of the lead shortwave trough from Ohio into parts of Kentucky.
   Ahead of the storms, the RAP is analyzing a narrow corridor of
   moderate instability, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1500 to
   2500 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWPs near Wilmington, Ohio
   and Morristown, Tennessee have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots,
   suggesting that isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with any
   multicells that can become organized. The severe threat is expected
   to persist for a couple more hours, as the convection moves into the
   southern Appalachians.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   At the surface, a weak front is located from the northern Texas
   Panhandle eastward across northern Oklahoma. Low-level moisture is
   greatest to the north of the front, where surface dewpoints are in
   the 60s F. This is contributing to an east-to-west axis moderate
   instability to the north of the front, with the RAP estimating
   MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Small clusters of strong
   storms are ongoing on either side of the boundary, from the northern
   Texas Panhandle into southeastern Colorado. WSR-88D VWPs in the
   southern High Plains have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range.
   In addition, the Amarillo 00Z observed sounding has an 850 to 500 mb
   lapse rate of 8.5 C/km. This environment could support isolated
   severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells for a few more hours
   this evening.

   ...Western Great Lakes...
   An upper-level low, associated with a shortwave trough, is currently
   analyzed across far southwest Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorms are
   ongoing to the east of the low over eastern Wisconsin. The storms
   are located along the northern edge of a corridor of moderate
   instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg
   range. Although forecast soundings have weak lapse rates in this
   area, 0-6 km shear is in the 20 to 25 knot range, according to
   regional WSR-88D VWPs. This suggests that a marginal severe threat
   will be possible this evening. A few strong wind gusts and hail will
   be possible.

   ..Broyles.. 08/02/2024

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