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    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 29, 2020 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 29 00:58:55 UTC 2020 (Print Version | 20200329 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20200329 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 290058

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0758 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

   Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION
   OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE MIDWEST REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe storms posing a threat for tornadoes, damaging wind
   and large hail will continue this evening into the overnight from a
   portion of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys into the Midwest region.

   ...Midwest region...

   The warm sector is in the process of being pinched off across
   northeast IA suggesting the tornado threat in this region should end
   by 02Z. However...additional storms are developing farther south
   across northwestern and west central IL and will move eastward into
   central and eastern IL where the 00Z RAOB from Lincoln indicated
   around 800 J/kg MLCAPE, large low-level hodographs and 80 kt
   effective bulk shear. This environment will continue to support
   organized storms incuding supercells capable of producing tornadoes,
   a couple of which could be strong this evening.  

   ...Tennessee and Ohio Valleys...

   A secondary branch of the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen
   tonight from middle TN into the OH Valley in association with a
   strong upper jet moving through the base of a progressive trough
   situated across the Midwest. This will contribute to modest
   low-level theta-e advection with MUCAPE from 500 to 1000 J/kg as
   well as large hodographs with 300-400 m2/s2 0-1 km storm-relative
   helicity within an otherwise strongly sheared environment. The band
   of scattered storms developing along the warm conveyor belt from
   southwest IN into western TN and northwest MS will likely maintain
   embedded organized structures including supercells and bowing
   segments capable of tornadoes, damaging wind and large hail as they
   develop eastward into the overnight.

   ..Dial.. 03/29/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: March 29, 2020
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