SPC AC 160037
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...
A few tornadoes and locally damaging winds are possible tonight in a
portion of the Florida Panhandle coast and in the early morning
along coastal west-central Florida.
Earlier thoughts regarding the potential for severe along the
central/eastern Gulf Coast remain.
Organized convection has developed over the central Gulf Basin where
higher moisture/buoyancy are more supportive of deep updrafts.
Northern extent of this activity is roughly 150mi southeast of the
MS delta region, extending about 400mi southwest along the surging
frontal zone. Lightning flashes have been sparse with near-coastal
convection this evening and will likely remain quite isolated until
higher-PW air mass advances toward the coast later tonight. Even so,
forecast soundings suggest surface-based buoyancy will remain weak,
but strongly sheared, supporting the possibility for a few
supercells. Severe probabilities have only been adjusted along the
western edge of the outlook to reflect low chances for thunderstorms
in the wake of the frontal passage.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z