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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jun 25, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 25 00:58:37 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240625 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240625 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 250058

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0758 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

   Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
   OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper
   Midwest this evening and overnight. A corridor of potentially
   widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of
   Minnesota into Wisconsin.

   ...01z Update Upper Midwest...
   Much of the previous forecast remains unchanged with only minor
   modifications. Several areas of scattered thunderstorms are ongoing
   over the northern Red River Valley and upper Midwest. Scattered
   supercells ahead of the occluded front over northern MN should
   continue eastward with a risk for damaging gusts and hail this
   evening before slowly weakening as they encounter decreasing
   buoyancy near Lake Superior. 

   Farther south, complexities surrounding the isolated ongoing
   convection in southern WI and additional convective initiation of
   elevated storms near and north of the effective warm front remain
   substantial. Storms over southern WI appear likely to continue
   southeast on the fringes of the better ascent and buoyancy with a
   risk for damaging gusts and hail this evening. Observational data
   shows increasing low-level warm-air advection and upper-level ascent
   could support additional storm development this evening over
   portions of west-central MN with the potential for rapid upscale
   growth into a bowing MCS. Substantial spatial uncertainty is also
   evident in late afternoon CAM guidance, but most guidance now does
   indicate some form of relatively intense MCS forming along the front
   in the 02-04z time frame. With 5000-6000 J/kg MUCAPE and moderate
   effective shear in place, a swath of significant damaging winds
   remains possible over parts of eastern MN, and much of
   central/southern WI, though with substantial uncertainty. Will
   maintain level-3 Enhanced wind probabilities as is with minor
   adjustments to the level-2 Slight over lower MI where storms may
   persist through the end of the convective period.

   ...Carolinas...
   The cold front over the eastern US is slowly moving offshore this
   evening. Remaining storms have undergone a gradual decrease in
   coverage and intensity this evening with the cessation of diurnal
   heating and the weakening of broader-scale forcing for ascent. An
   isolated damaging gust could occur with the stronger storms centered
   near the NC/SC border, but the broader severe risk should continue
   to decrease below MRGL criteria after sunset.

   ..Lyons.. 06/25/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: June 25, 2024
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