SPC AC 280049

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0749 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

   Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
   AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Tornadoes are possible across southern and central Florida overnight
   tonight with the outer rain bands of Hurricane Ian.

   ...Florida Peninsula...
   The latest National Hurricane Center Advisory as of 00 UTC placed
   the center of Major Hurricane Ian near 24.4N 83.0W, or 180 miles
   south of Punta Gorda, Florida. Several outer rain bands have been
   observed moving across mostly southern portions of the Florida
   peninsula this afternoon/evening. Within these spiral bands,
   semi-discrete supercells with persistent low-level rotation have
   been observed. As Ian continues north this evening, ongoing
   supercells should spread north and west into portions of the central
   peninsula. Forecasted decreases in central pressure (947 mb as of 00
   UTC) and expansion of Ian's wind field inland should support backing
   and enhancement of the low-level easterlies along and south of
   Interstate 4 and the central peninsula overnight. Area model
   soundings show sustained and large low-level hodographs with ESRH of
   250-500 m2/s2 favorable for tornadoes and occasional strong wind
   gusts. While buoyancy will likely remain weaker owing to the lack of
   diurnal heating, the advection of upper 70s F surface dewpoints and
   higher theta-E inland may compensate enough to keep updrafts buoyant
   overnight. 

   The greatest risk for tornadoes will likely remain with the primary
   outer bands of Ian across portions of the southeastern and central
   Florida Peninsula. IR satellite imagery and recent Hi-res HRRR data
   suggest additional offshore development is possible across portions
   of the Florida Straits and west of the Bahamas tonight. Should these
   bands continue to develop and move inland across southeastern and
   eventually central Florida, embedded supercells will remain capable
   of tornadoes and isolated strong wind gusts through the overnight
   hours.

   ..Lyons/Darrow.. 09/28/2022

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