SPC AC 160037

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0637 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022

   Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PORTIONS OF
   THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few tornadoes and locally damaging winds are possible tonight in a
   portion of the Florida Panhandle coast and in the early morning
   along coastal west-central Florida.

   ...01z Update...

   Earlier thoughts regarding the potential for severe along the
   central/eastern Gulf Coast remain.

   Organized convection has developed over the central Gulf Basin where
   higher moisture/buoyancy are more supportive of deep updrafts.
   Northern extent of this activity is roughly 150mi southeast of the
   MS delta region, extending about 400mi southwest along the surging
   frontal zone. Lightning flashes have been sparse with near-coastal
   convection this evening and will likely remain quite isolated until
   higher-PW air mass advances toward the coast later tonight. Even so,
   forecast soundings suggest surface-based buoyancy will remain weak,
   but strongly sheared, supporting the possibility for a few
   supercells. Severe probabilities have only been adjusted along the
   western edge of the outlook to reflect low chances for thunderstorms
   in the wake of the frontal passage.

   ..Darrow.. 01/16/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z