SPC AC 040040

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0640 PM CST Fri Dec 03 2021

   Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple of flashes of lightning may be noted from northeast Texas
   into Arkansas overnight.  However, this activity will be very
   sparse.

   ...01z Update...

   Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough ejecting
   northeast into the Arklatex region. Extensive mid-high cloudiness
   ahead of this feature reflects the large-scale forcing that will
   spread across the lower MS Valley into western TN late. A few
   lightning strikes were noted with elevated convection earlier today
   but 04/00z soundings ahead of this feature are not particularly
   buoyant, though steep lapse rates are noted. FWD/SHV/LZK are all
   capped and any convection capable of producing lightning will be
   rooted near/above 850mb. Will maintain 10% probability for
   thunderstorms ahead of the short wave but the prospect for lightning
   will remain low given the observed soundings.

   ..Darrow.. 12/04/2021

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