SPC AC 200042

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0742 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

   Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
   NE...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN...NORTHWEST IA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms posing a risk for isolated severe hail may occur later
   this evening and overnight across parts of northern Nebraska,
   southeast South Dakota, northwest Iowa, and southwest Minnesota.

   ...Northern NE...Southeast SD...Northwest IA...Southwest MN...
   A closed mid/upper level low near the CO/WY border this evening is
   forecast to move northeastward towards the Sand Hills region of NE
   overnight, as an attendant surface low moves into eastern NE.
   Steepening midlevel lapse rates and increasing moisture in the
   850-700 mb layer will support MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg (locally
   higher) late this evening into the overnight hours. Increasing
   large-scale ascent will support scattered elevated thunderstorm
   development through late tonight, generally near and north of a
   surface boundary draped from northeast NE into northwest
   MN/southwest MN. Effective shear of greater than 30 kt may favor
   some storm organization, and isolated large hail will be possible
   with the strongest cells.

   ..Dean.. 10/20/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z