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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 26, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 26 01:17:08 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240526 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240526 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 260117

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0817 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

   Valid 260100Z - 261200Z


   Widespread strong to severe storms remain possible tonight across
   parts of the central and southern Plains into southern Missouri. A
   few strong tornadoes, widespread damaging wind, and very large hail
   will be possible.

   ...Central/southern Plains into southern MO/northern AR...
   Extensive and relatively early storm development this afternoon
   across parts of OK and northwest TX has significantly complicated
   the distribution of moisture and instability across parts of the
   central/southern Plains. However, a strong low-level jet will
   continue to transport moisture into the region tonight, and some
   recovery and additional storm development in the vicinity of
   convective outflow remains possible through the evening. Supercells
   capable of very large hail, significant gusts, and a few strong
   tornadoes remain possible where surface-based storms can persist. 

   Later tonight, some upscale growth will be possible from southern MO
   into northern AR, as the low-level jet continues to strengthen into
   the overnight hours. An increasing risk of severe to locally
   destructive wind gusts (60-85 mph) may accompany this upscale
   growth. However, embedded supercells will remain possible, with very
   strong low-level shear/SRH supporting a continued tornado threat,
   including some potential for a strong tornado. A relatively intense
   storm cluster or MCS could reach portions of the MS Valley by the
   end of the period.  

   Farther north, increasing storm coverage is expected from northern
   KS into southern NE. Low-level moisture will continue to surge
   northward in conjunction with a warm front, which may eventually
   reach the KS/NE border region. A few supercells will be possible
   across the region this evening, with a threat of large to very large
   hail. The tornado threat will also increase with cells near and
   south of the warm front, and a strong tornado cannot be ruled out
   with any persistent discrete supercell. Some upscale growth will be
   possible with time from eastern KS into western MO, with a storm
   cluster or small MCS potentially following in the wake of an earlier
   storm cluster into parts of southern MO by the end of the period. 

   ...South FL...
   Isolated strong to locally severe storms remain possible for a
   couple hours this evening across parts of south FL, within a
   moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. Isolated hail
   and strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out before storms weaken later

   ...Parts of MS/AL...
   A few strong storms are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern
   MS into AL. While midlevel lapse rates are generally weak across the
   region, rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE in excess of
   2000 J/kg, in the presence of moderate effective shear (generally
   30-40 kt). Isolated hail and damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with
   the strongest storms this evening, before storms generally weaken as
   MLCINH increases.  

   ...Western PA/northern WV into parts of the Mid Atlantic...
   Strong to occasionally severe storms have been ongoing across parts
   of PA/WV and northern MD this evening, within an environment
   characterized by weak to locally moderate buoyancy and modest
   deep-layer shear. These storms should generally weaken with the
   onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization, though isolated damaging
   gusts and marginal hail cannot be ruled out through the evening.

   ..Dean.. 05/26/2024



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