SPC AC 220055

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0755 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

   Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
   US...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong, to occasionally severe, thunderstorms capable of
   producing both damaging winds and large hail should continue this
   evening from parts of the southern Plains into the lower Ohio
   Valley, lower Great Lakes and Northeast.

   ...01z Update...

   Deep southwesterly flow at mid-high levels persists along a corridor
   from southern CO-mid MS Valley-QC. Associated surface front lies
   along the southern fringe of this stronger flow and is expected to
   move very little across the OH Valley tonight. Strongest frontal
   surge will be noted across TX with the boundary forecast into deep
   south TX by sunrise. In the absence of meaningful large-scale ascent
   along the entirety of the frontal zone, convective momentum from
   long-lived clusters and line segments will be most responsible for
   gusty winds and hail this evening. One elongated MCS has matured and
   currently extends from southeast MO, across central AR. Leading edge
   of this bowing segment should propagate into western TN over the
   next few hours with an attendant and more concentrated corridor for
   possible wind damage. More discrete storms extend southwest into
   central TX ahead of the front and are likely producing hail.

   Another MCS, with robust convection along the leading edge, is
   progressing across northwestern PA into western NY. This activity
   should propagate along a corridor of instability that currently
   extends through upstate NY, just south of the overturning from the
   intense Canadian MCS. Ample shear/buoyancy along this corridor will
   continue to support this organized cluster. Wind and some threat for
   hail continue.

   ..Darrow.. 05/22/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z