SPC AC 130040

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0740 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

   Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

   ...Discussion...
   A swath of elevated thunderstorms across the southern Great Lakes
   region will shift east-southeast tonight. Variably decreasing and
   increasing wind speeds with height in the LCL-EL layer will limit
   effective bulk shear. This suggests potential for elevated supercell
   structures will be low. On the west-southwest periphery of the
   convective swath, small hail will be possible given a modest
   buoyancy plume and steep mid-level lapse rates (as sampled by the
   00Z ILX sounding) emanating northeast from the Mid-MS Valley.

   Very isolated thunderstorms will be possible within the left-exit
   region of a shortwave trough and attendant mid-level jet, amplifying
   from MB into the Upper Midwest. Despite scant elevated buoyancy at
   most, the strengthening forcing for ascent could support a narrow
   swath of lightning flashes downstream of ongoing convection over the
   Red River Valley.

   Potential for isolated thunderstorms should slowly expand north
   overnight across the south FL Peninsula from the FL Straits.
   Redevelopment of convection should remain mostly confined to the
   nearshore and adjacent offshore waters through 12Z Sunday.

   ..Grams.. 10/13/2024

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