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    Day 2 Outlook >
Nov 8, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Nov 8 00:38:22 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20241108 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20241108 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 080038

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0638 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

   Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   WEST TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes
   remain possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas.

   ...01z Update...

   Strong upper low has settled into southeast AZ, in line with model
   guidance. This feature will soon begin to eject east as the main
   mid-level speed max rotates through the base of the trough across
   northern Mexico into far West TX/southeast NM by sunrise.
   Considerable number of thunderstorms have developed well ahead of
   this feature across the Southern Plains, driven in large part by
   low-level warm advection. LLJ will strengthen markedly this evening
   across northwest TX into southwest KS, aiding widespread elevated
   thunderstorms within a diffluent high-level flow regime. Leading
   edge of large-scale forcing, with the upper trough, is spreading
   across eastern NM, and this will eventually spread across the high
   Plains, further aiding convection.

   00z sounding at MAF exhibited substantial MUCAPE (1300 J/kg) along
   the cool side of the boundary, as did FWD but with weaker mid-level
   lapse rates. Primary corridor for surface-based convection is
   expected from near the international border (DRT), across the
   Edwards Plateau, into the Big Country tonight. A few supercells are
   currently noted along this zone, and this should persist much of the
   night. Earlier thoughts regarding the potential for severe continue.

   ..Darrow.. 11/08/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: November 08, 2024
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