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    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 16, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 16 00:56:45 UTC 2025 (Print Version | 20250216 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20250216 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 160056

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0656 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

   Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN/LOWER
   MS VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning Sunday
   across parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Deep
   South. Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and scattered to
   widespread damaging winds should be the primary threats.

   ...TN/Lower MS Valleys and the Deep South...
   Broken linear convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the Lower
   Sabine Valley, along and just ahead of a surface cold front that is
   expected to move east tonight. A relatively broad warm-moist sector
   heated into the 70s and low 80s earlier, and has supported a plume
   of MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg. As a well-defined shortwave trough over the
   Lower MO Valley to northeast TX progresses east into the Central OH
   Valley and Deep South, an extensive QLCS will evolve from the TN
   Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-QLCS convection across LA
   should persist with eastern extent across the Gulf Coast States. 

   Very strong 850-700 mb winds (65-80 kt) should be prominent from the
   Ark-La-Miss to central parts of MS/AL northward. This flow regime
   should support widespread strong gusts with embedded severe swaths,
   yielding scattered to widespread damaging winds, along with a threat
   for mesovortex tornadoes. After coordination with WFO BMX, have
   expanded the level 3-ENH risk northeastward in AL. The fast-moving
   QLCS will eventually outpace the warm-moist sector in the TN
   Valley/southern Appalachian vicinity.

   Farther south, the 00Z JAN sounding sampled a more deeply mixed air
   mass than progged by operational guidance, with mean-mixing ratios
   near 11 g/kg. Rich boundary-layer moisture closer to the Gulf Coast
   suggests that semi-discrete supercells merging into the southern
   portion of the QLCS would be the more favored scenario for a few
   longer-lasting/strong tornadoes overnight.

   ..Grams.. 02/16/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: February 16, 2025
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