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    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 14, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 14 00:56:37 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240414 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240414 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 140056

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0756 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

   Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong thunderstorm development remains possible into this
   evening across parts of south central Oregon, to the north and east
   of the Klamath Falls vicinity, posing at least some risk for severe
   wind and hail.

   ...01Z Update...

   ...Southern Oregon...
   As a deep surface low migrates northward to the lee of the northern
   Sierra Nevada, forcing for ascent, aided by downstream low-level
   warm advection, may maintain vigorous thunderstorm development to
   the north and east of the Klamath Falls vicinity into the 02-04Z
   time frame.  Based on latest objective analysis, at least a small
   pocket of moderate boundary-layer instability persists across this
   region, in the presence of marginally sufficient shear for
   occasional supercell structures posing at least some risk for severe
   hail and wind.

   ...Great Lakes...
   In advance of a digging low-amplitude short wave trough and
   associated developing surface low, models suggest that warm
   advection along a strengthening frontal zone may contribute to weak
   destabilization tonight.  Forecast soundings suggest that moisture
   return within and/or above elevated mixed-layer air emanating from
   the northern Great Plains will be sufficient to support convection
   capable of producing lightning, which may commence across northern
   Wisconsin/adjacent upper Michigan by 04-05Z, before spreading
   east-southeastward overnight.  Although southwesterly to westerly
   wind fields are forecast to strengthen in excess of 50 kts in the
   dry sub-cloud air, potential for downward mixing of this momentum to
   the surface will tend to be inhibited by a near-surface inversion
   layer.  This will remain more pronounced with eastward extent across
   northern lower Michigan toward the eastern Lake Erie/western Lake
   Ontario vicinity, but occasional gusts approaching severe limits
   might not entirely be out of the question.

   ...Black Hills vicinity into mid Missouri Valley...
   In advance of a developing, southward advancing cold front,
   a seasonably warm and deeply-mixed boundary-layer became
   sufficiently unstable to support widely scattered weak thunderstorm
   activity late this afternoon.  This continues in spots, but appears
   to be diminishing with the loss of daytime heating, and thunderstorm
   probabilities will be maintained at less than 10 percent through the
   remainder of the period.

   ..Kerr.. 04/14/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: April 14, 2024
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