SPC AC 070046
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated wind damage and hail will be
possible from parts of the central Plains northeastward into the
upper Mississippi Valley.
...Upper Mississippi and Mid Missouri Valleys...
Latest water vapor imagery shows west-southwest mid-level flow over
the north-central states, with a subtle shortwave trough located
over the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is
analyzed from western Wisconsin southwestward into eastern Nebraska.
Surface dewpoints to the southeast of the front are generally in the
70s, but a few observations have dewpoints in the lower to mid 80s
F. In response, strong instability is present across the much of the
mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms are ongoing along the
northwestern edge of the strongest instability from northern Iowa
into far southeast Minnesota. These storms will continue to track
eastward into the stronger instability toward the Mississippi River
this evening. Ahead of the storms, the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in
the 4000 to 4500 J/kg range. This combined with 0-3 km lapse rates
near 7.5 C/km should be enough for isolated damaging winds
associated with the more intense line segments. The severe threat
should persist for a few more hours this evening.
At mid-levels, an anticyclone is located from the southern High
Plains east-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. On the
western edge of the anticyclone, water vapor imagery shows a plume
of mid-level moisture located from eastern Arizona northeastward
into eastern Colorado. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in
eastern Colorado, along the western edge of an axis of strong
instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg
range from eastern Colorado northeastward across southern and
eastern Nebraska. In addition to the strong instability, 0-3 km
lapse rates are very steep across the central Plains. This should be
enough for isolated wind gusts associated with the stronger
multicells. The severe threat should persist for a few more hours
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