SPC AC 270100
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023
Valid 270100Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for tornadoes, severe gusts, and large hail will likely be
most concentrated and focused across south-central Alabama this
evening before this activity moves into western Georgia tonight. A
strong tornado or two remains possible.
...Central Gulf Coast states into the Carolinas...
Early evening severe thunderstorm activity is progressing generally
eastward across this general region. Discussions on the short-term
severe risk (through 0215 UTC) are detailed in Mesoscale Convective
Discussions #363-365. As the low-level winds gradually intensify
this evening, expect enlarging hodographs to conditionally favor
both storm-scale rotation with the more dominant supercells, and
increased large-scale ascent via WAA across AL into GA this evening
into the overnight. Have substantially adjusted severe
probabilities especially in areas where convective overturning has
occurred (i.e., south-central MS). However, the Slidell, LA 00 UTC
raob showed a very moist boundary layer and 2500 J/kg
MLCAPE--characterizing the unaltered airmass continually advancing
north into the coastal plain. As the LLJ intensifies by late
evening into the overnight, further upscale growth into one or two
severe clusters will likely translate east into GA and the coastal
Carolinas with an attendant severe risk.
..Smith.. 03/27/2023
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z