SPC AC 070046

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0746 PM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022

   Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with isolated wind damage and hail will be
   possible from parts of the central Plains northeastward into the
   upper Mississippi Valley.

   ...Upper Mississippi and Mid Missouri Valleys...
   Latest water vapor imagery shows west-southwest mid-level flow over
   the north-central states, with a subtle shortwave trough located
   over the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is
   analyzed from western Wisconsin southwestward into eastern Nebraska.
   Surface dewpoints to the southeast of the front are generally in the
   70s, but a few observations have dewpoints in the lower to mid 80s
   F. In response, strong instability is present across the much of the
   mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms are ongoing along the
   northwestern edge of the strongest instability from northern Iowa
   into far southeast Minnesota. These storms will continue to track
   eastward into the stronger instability toward the Mississippi River
   this evening. Ahead of the storms, the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in
   the 4000 to 4500 J/kg range. This combined with 0-3 km lapse rates
   near 7.5 C/km should be enough for isolated damaging winds
   associated with the more intense line segments. The severe threat
   should persist for a few more hours this evening.

   ...Central Plains...
   At mid-levels, an anticyclone is located from the southern High
   Plains east-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. On the
   western edge of the anticyclone, water vapor imagery shows a plume
   of mid-level moisture located from eastern Arizona northeastward
   into eastern Colorado. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in
   eastern Colorado, along the western edge of an axis of strong
   instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg
   range from eastern Colorado northeastward across southern and
   eastern Nebraska. In addition to the strong instability, 0-3 km
   lapse rates are very steep across the central Plains. This should be
   enough for isolated wind gusts associated with the stronger
   multicells. The severe threat should persist for a few more hours
   this evening.

   ..Broyles.. 08/07/2022

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