SPC AC 070058

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0658 PM CST Tue Dec 06 2022

   Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
   TENNESSEE AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A severe thunderstorm or two is possible this evening across western
   portions of Kentucky and Tennessee.

   ...01z Update...

   Weak surface low, that evolved along a weakly convergent cold front,
   has progressed into northeast AR early this evening. This feature
   will translate downstream across the Bootheel of MO before tracking
   into northern KY late this evening. Lower 60s surface dew points
   have advanced across western TN into southwestern KY, which is
   contributing to near-surface-based buoyancy along the frontal zone.
   Scattered showers have evolved along this corridor from the
   Arklatex-western TN-western KY; however, deepest updrafts/lightning
   are primarily noted along the lower OH River where low-level warm
   advection appears to be maximized. It's not entirely clear how
   organized/intense convection will be this evening, given the
   relatively weak forcing and limited buoyancy. Even so, will maintain
   MRGL Risk for gusty conditions with this activity, but overall
   severe threat does not currently appear to be that significant.

   ..Darrow.. 12/07/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z