SPC AC 270100

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0800 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

   Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
   EASTERN NM INTO SOUTHWEST TX...AND ALSO NEAR THE ARKLATEX
   VICINITY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms may continue over eastern New Mexico
   into parts of west Texas through the evening.  A threat for large to
   very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks.
   Scattered strong to severe storms also remain possible across parts
   of western/central Arkansas and vicinity.

   ...Eastern NM into west/central TX...
   Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening from
   east-central NM into the TX Permian Basin region, near and to the
   south of a remnant outflow boundary that earlier moved into the
   region from the east. MLCINH will increase through the evening
   across the region, and the eastward advance of the NM storms may be
   limited by a less unstable and increasingly capped airmass to the
   cool side of the remnant outflow. However, a modest increase in
   low-level flow through the evening may help to maintain a couple of
   these supercells, which will tend to propagate southeastward along
   the instability gradient. Backed low-level flow and modestly
   enlarged hodographs may continue to support tornado potential with
   these cells for as long as they persist and remain surface-based.
   Otherwise, large to very large hail and localized severe gusts will
   remain a threat with the strongest storms. 

   Farther east, an isolated strong storm or two may yet develop within
   a persistent cumulus field across parts of central TX. Moderate
   instability and deep-layer shear could support at least briefly
   organized storms if initiation occurs, with a threat of isolated
   hail and strong gusts.  

   ...Western/central AR and vicinity...
   Moderate instability and modestly enhanced midlevel flow attendant
   to an MCV over eastern OK have supported occasional supercell
   structures early this evening from western AR into the ArkLaTex
   region. A few stronger cells may persist through dusk, accompanied
   by a threat of hail, isolated damaging wind, and possibly a tornado
   or two. A gradual weakening trend is expected later this evening
   after the onset of nocturnal cooling, though relatively rich
   low-level moisture may delay this process somewhat and allow for
   some severe threat to spread into parts of central AR with time. 

   ...Parts of the Carolinas/southeast VA...
   Widely scattered storms are ongoing this evening from the eastern
   Carolinas into southeast VA, along/ahead of a cold front. MLCAPE
   around 1000 J/kg and modest deep-layer shear could support
   occasionally strong storms with potential for locally gusty/damaging
   winds, before storms weaken later this evening.

   ..Dean.. 04/27/2025

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