SPC AC 150059

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0759 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

   Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWESTERN
   NORTH DAKOTA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A brief instance or two of severe wind or hail remains possible this
   evening across portions of northwestern North Dakota.

   ...Synopsis...
   Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should continue into the
   overnight hours across the Intermountain West into the central and
   northern Plains states, in association with a mid-level monsoonal
   moisture plume, which continues to pivot anticyclonically around an
   upper ridge across the central U.S. Across northwestern North
   Dakota, a severe hailstone/gust or two remains possible this evening
   if a right-moving supercell across southeast Saskatchewan can anchor
   along an outflow boundary (extending from Burke to Ward County) and
   propagate southeastward. Marginal hail or wind gusts may continue
   across the central High Plains, but organized severe thunderstorms
   appear unlikely.

   Otherwise, a few thunderstorms may also continue into the overnight
   hours over the central Appalachians in association with modest
   850-700 mb warm-air advection. While a marginally severe hail stone
   or damaging gust can't completely be ruled out, organized severe
   potential appears low. Scattered thunderstorms may continue to
   percolate through 12Z Monday across southern Texas in association
   with a tropical low.

   ..Squitieri.. 08/15/2022

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