SPC AC 270100

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0800 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

   Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
   SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for tornadoes, severe gusts, and large hail will likely be
   most concentrated and focused across south-central Alabama this
   evening before this activity moves into western Georgia tonight.  A
   strong tornado or two remains possible.

   ...Central Gulf Coast states into the Carolinas...
   Early evening severe thunderstorm activity is progressing generally
   eastward across this general region.  Discussions on the short-term
   severe risk (through 0215 UTC) are detailed in Mesoscale Convective
   Discussions #363-365.  As the low-level winds gradually intensify
   this evening, expect enlarging hodographs to conditionally favor
   both storm-scale rotation with the more dominant supercells, and
   increased large-scale ascent via WAA across AL into GA this evening
   into the overnight.  Have substantially adjusted severe
   probabilities especially in areas where convective overturning has
   occurred (i.e., south-central MS).  However, the Slidell, LA 00 UTC
   raob showed a very moist boundary layer and 2500 J/kg
   MLCAPE--characterizing the unaltered airmass continually advancing
   north into the coastal plain.  As the LLJ intensifies by late
   evening into the overnight, further upscale growth into one or two
   severe clusters will likely translate east into GA and the coastal
   Carolinas with an attendant severe risk.

   ..Smith.. 03/27/2023

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