SPC AC 070058
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 PM CST Tue Dec 06 2022
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...
A severe thunderstorm or two is possible this evening across western
portions of Kentucky and Tennessee.
Weak surface low, that evolved along a weakly convergent cold front,
has progressed into northeast AR early this evening. This feature
will translate downstream across the Bootheel of MO before tracking
into northern KY late this evening. Lower 60s surface dew points
have advanced across western TN into southwestern KY, which is
contributing to near-surface-based buoyancy along the frontal zone.
Scattered showers have evolved along this corridor from the
Arklatex-western TN-western KY; however, deepest updrafts/lightning
are primarily noted along the lower OH River where low-level warm
advection appears to be maximized. It's not entirely clear how
organized/intense convection will be this evening, given the
relatively weak forcing and limited buoyancy. Even so, will maintain
MRGL Risk for gusty conditions with this activity, but overall
severe threat does not currently appear to be that significant.
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