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    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 5, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 5 00:59:37 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240305 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240305 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 050059

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0659 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024

   Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST
   INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight from
   parts of the Midwest into the lower/mid Mississippi Valley and
   ArkLaTex region. Isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts will
   continue to be the primary threats.

   ...MO/IL vicinity...
   Scattered strong thunderstorms are ongoing this evening from
   northeast MO into western/northern IL, in the vicinity of a cold
   front. Occasional supercell structures have been noted, though there
   has been a tendency for the front to undercut cells as they move
   northeast, limiting the duration of the severe threat with any
   particular storm. Some upscale growth is possible with time tonight
   as the front continues to move southeastward, which could lead to a
   modest uptick in damaging wind potential, while a threat for
   isolated hail may persist with the strongest individual cells. 

   ...ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley...
   Generally disorganized convection persists this evening across parts
   of AR/LA/MS, though moderate buoyancy (with around 2000 J/kg noted
   on the 00Z LZK sounding) still supports some isolated hail potential
   with any cells that are able to pulse up in intensity. Some guidance
   continues to suggest the potential for a storm cluster to develop
   near the ArkLaTex region overnight, which could pose an isolated
   hail/wind threat given the presence of favorable
   moisture/instability and sufficient deep-layer shear. 

   ...Central TX...
   Isolated thunderstorm development has recently been noted across
   parts of the TX Hill Country, within a moderately unstable but
   weakly forced regime. While a very short-term hail threat could
   evolve with any sustained development, increasing MLCINH should
   generally limit the threat with time this evening.

   ..Dean.. 03/05/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: March 05, 2024
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