SPC AC 100054

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0654 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024

   Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected overnight across
   the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast
   states.

   ...Discussion...
   As an upper trough continues digging southeastward across the Plains
   and southern Rockies, a weak surface frontal wave, now over the
   Arklatex region, is forecast to shift into the Tennessee Valley.  As
   this occurs, a trailing cold front will progress southeastward
   across the south-central states.

   Ahead of the front, a moist low-level airmass has advected northward
   into the central Gulf Coast states/Lower Mississippi Valley area. 
   However, weak lapse rates aloft continue to hinder convective
   intensity, with lightning activity now having nearly ceased.  Still,
   as the front advances, additional convective development is expected
   to occur, along with potential for additional/occasional
   thunderstorms.  While deep-layer shear is sufficient for organized
   convection, it appears that weak CAPE should preclude appreciable
   risk for severe weather overnight.  Therefore, will remove the MRGL
   risk that was in effect for a few diurnally enhanced storms over
   southern Louisiana.

   ..Goss.. 12/10/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z