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    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 15, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 15 00:37:14 UTC 2025 (Print Version | 20250215 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20250215 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 150037

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0637 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

   Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Widely scattered weak thunderstorms remain possible across parts of
   the southern Great Basin into the central High Plains. More
   widespread weak thunderstorm activity is likely across Arkansas into
   the lower Ohio Valley this evening and overnight.

   ...01z Update...

   Strong mid-level jet is digging southeast across the lower CO River
   Valley toward northern Mexico. Cooling/steepening profiles, north of
   this jet, have resulted in a fairly large area of at least weak
   buoyancy from the Four Corners region into southern WY. As a result,
   isolated-widely scattered thunderstorms are currently noted, largely
   aided by diurnal heating. Additionally, weak convection over the
   central High Plains has recently attained heights necessary for
   lightning discharge, immediately ahead of the surging cold front.
   Have adjusted thunder probabilities to account for lightning with
   this activity for the next several hours.

   Downstream, low-level warm/moist advection is contributing to
   increasing elevated instability across east TX into the lower MS
   Valley. Parcels lifted between 1-2km AGL will gradually become more
   unstable overnight, likely exhibiting more than 500 J/kg MUCAPE, and
   more than adequate for lightning.

   ..Darrow.. 02/15/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: February 15, 2025
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