Dec 14, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Dec 14 00:52:44 UTC 2018 (20181214 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20181214 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20181214 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 9,191 1,232,386 Mobile, AL...Pensacola, FL...Panama City, FL...Ferry Pass, FL...Wright, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20181214 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 9,191 1,232,386 Mobile, AL...Pensacola, FL...Panama City, FL...Ferry Pass, FL...Wright, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20181214 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 9,191 1,232,386 Mobile, AL...Pensacola, FL...Panama City, FL...Ferry Pass, FL...Wright, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20181214 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 140052

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0652 PM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

   Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur over parts of the
   central Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle tonight.

   ...ArkLaTex...
   The potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across the
   ArkLaTex appears to have diminished this evening with the loss of
   daytime heating and meager low-level moisture limiting instability.
   Have therefore removed the Marginal risk for this region. 

   Additional convective development may occur across northern LA into
   southern AR late in the period (09-12Z) as a surface low occludes
   and strong large-scale forcing associated with an upper low over
   central/east TX overspreads this region. Even though 700-500 mb
   lapse rates should steepen as mid-level temperatures decrease
   beneath the upper low, weak effective bulk shear and poor low-level
   lapse rates will likely preclude a meaningful severe threat.

   ...AL/FL Gulf Coast...
   00Z surface analysis indicates a warm front extending across
   southern LA to just offshore the coast of MS/AL and the western FL
   Panhandle. As a surface cyclone occludes over east TX/western LA
   overnight, the warm front should slowly advance northward along the
   central Gulf Coast. Even so, surface dewpoints moving onshore will
   probably remain in the low to mid 60s through 12Z, and only weak
   surface-based instability is expected. Strong shear in the 0-3 km
   layer associated with a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet will likely
   support updraft rotation with low-topped thunderstorms, and the
   threat for a tornado or two occurring along/near the coast through
   early Friday remains sufficient to justify a Marginal risk. Isolated
   strong to locally damaging winds could also occur.

   For more information on the severe threat this evening along the
   immediate coast/barrier islands of AL and the far western FL
   Panhandle, see Mesoscale Discussion 1708.

   ..Gleason.. 12/14/2018

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z