Oct 6, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 6 00:51:39 UTC 2022 (20221006 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20221006 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20221006 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20221006 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20221006 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20221006 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 060051

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0751 PM CDT Wed Oct 05 2022

   Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered thunderstorms are possible through tonight in much of the
   southwestern U.S, the mid to upper Mississippi Valley and in parts
   of southern New England. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   An upper-level low will move slowly across western New Mexico this
   evening. Thunderstorms will be possible this evening near and around
   the low from central and eastern Arizona eastward into New Mexico. A
   few storms may also affect west Texas. Further northeast into the
   mid to upper Mississippi Valley, isolated thunderstorms will be
   possible this evening into tonight ahead of a shortwave trough.
   Isolated thunderstorms may also occur across parts of southern New
   England on the western edge of a low pressure system located in the
   western Atlantic. Instability is expected to be too weak in these
   areas, and across the remainder of the U.S. for a severe threat
   tonight.

   ..Broyles.. 10/06/2022

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z