Feb 19, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Feb 19 00:33:00 UTC 2019 (20190219 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190219 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190219 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20190219 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20190219 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20190219 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 190033

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0633 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

   Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms remain possible mainly late tonight from east
   Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley region.

   ...East Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley region...

   Upper level forcing for ascent will remain weak from east TX through
   the lower MS Valley tonight as a low-amplitude 500 mb ridge builds
   downstream from an amplifying upper trough over the southwestern
   states. However, a southerly low-level jet will strengthen tonight,
   and transport higher theta-e air northward above the cool, stable
   layer, resulting in 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Both 00Z observed and
   forecast soundings show a mid-level inversion along the coast,
   suggesting parcels undergoing isentropic ascent will more likely to
   reach their LFCs well inland from northeast TX into northern LA,
   extreme southern AR into central MS, mainly after 08Z.

   ..Dial.. 02/19/2019

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z