SPC AC 190033
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019
Valid 190100Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
A few thunderstorms remain possible mainly late tonight from east
Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley region.
...East Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley region...
Upper level forcing for ascent will remain weak from east TX through
the lower MS Valley tonight as a low-amplitude 500 mb ridge builds
downstream from an amplifying upper trough over the southwestern
states. However, a southerly low-level jet will strengthen tonight,
and transport higher theta-e air northward above the cool, stable
layer, resulting in 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Both 00Z observed and
forecast soundings show a mid-level inversion along the coast,
suggesting parcels undergoing isentropic ascent will more likely to
reach their LFCs well inland from northeast TX into northern LA,
extreme southern AR into central MS, mainly after 08Z.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z