Apr 20, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 20 01:04:22 UTC 2025 (20250420 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20250420 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20250420 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 36,927 829,210 Abilene, TX...San Angelo, TX...Sherman, TX...Ardmore, OK...Denison, TX...
SLIGHT 111,706 10,644,283 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
MARGINAL 113,313 20,684,343 San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Oklahoma City, OK...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20250420 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 9,681 350,229 Sherman, TX...Ardmore, OK...Denison, TX...Gainesville, TX...Durant, OK...
10 % 9,845 357,061 Sherman, TX...Ardmore, OK...Denison, TX...Gainesville, TX...Durant, OK...
5 % 79,507 8,407,028 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
2 % 68,679 6,896,628 San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Springfield, MO...Waco, TX...Killeen, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20250420 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 148,288 11,464,507 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
5 % 113,816 20,716,926 San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Oklahoma City, OK...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20250420 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 77,552 6,399,084 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
30 % 28,884 508,128 Abilene, TX...San Angelo, TX...Mineral Wells, TX...Sweetwater, TX...Graham, TX...
15 % 119,405 10,956,379 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
5 % 87,845 8,872,711 San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Little Rock, AR...
   SPC AC 200104

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

   Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS
   INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into
   tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma.
   Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west
   Texas as additional thunderstorms develop.

   ... 01Z Update ...
   The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk
   (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into
   southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along,
   southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield
   an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong
   tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The
   observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind
   of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380
   m2/s2. 

   Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and
   damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across
   portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject
   into the Plains.

   ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z