Apr 12, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Apr 12 00:58:14 UTC 2021 (20210412 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20210412 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20210412 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 2,722 671,129 Cape Coral, FL...Bonita Springs, FL...Golden Gate, FL...Key West, FL...Naples, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20210412 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20210412 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20210412 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 2,692 668,901 Cape Coral, FL...Bonita Springs, FL...Golden Gate, FL...Key West, FL...Naples, FL...
   SPC AC 120058

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0758 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021

   Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
   FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA COASTLINE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   An instance or two of marginally severe hail may accompany the
   stronger storms across the Florida Peninsula over the next few
   hours. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across portions of
   the Mid Atlantic through early tonight.

   ...01Z Update...
   The propagation of an earlier mature MCS across the FL Peninsula has
   overturned the more buoyant airmass. Nonetheless, continued warm-air
   advection and associated gradual ascent of moist parcels ahead of an
   approaching cold front supports continued, mainly elevated
   convection across far eastern portions of the Gulf, with a few
   organized multicellular storms impinging on the western shoreline of
   the Florida Peninsula. The 00z TBW observed sounding depicts an
   absolutely stable tropospheric profile, while the KEY 00Z observed
   sounding, modified for recent convective outflow, suggests up to
   2000 J/kg MLCAPE may still be present across the Florida Keys.
   Thunderstorm probabilities have been continued across the central
   and southern Florida Peninsula as marginal elevated instability may
   still be present to support a few lightning flashes. A Marginal risk
   for large hail also continues along the western coastline, as the
   deeper mid-level lapse rates may not have been diluted from the
   earlier storms to completely eliminate the risk for hail stones
   around 1 inch in diameter. 

   Otherwise, remnant marginal instability remains ahead of ongoing
   convection across the Mid Atlantic. These storms may continue for a
   few more hours, until further nocturnal cooling erodes the remaining
   buoyancy in place, with lightning flash frequency expected to
   decrease.

   ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 04/12/2021

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z