Nov 29, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 29 00:40:57 UTC 2023 (20231129 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20231129 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20231129 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20231129 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20231129 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20231129 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 290040

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0640 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

   Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S.
   through tonight.

   ...01Z Update...
   Some lightning was noted earlier today with convection beneath the
   cold core of a weakening mid-level low, which is now a couple
   hundred miles west-southwest of the northern California coast.  The
   remnant mid-level circulation may shift into coastal areas near
   Eureka by late tonight, but the associated weakening, occluded
   surface low and front are forecast to remain offshore of the
   California coast.  Stronger mid-level forcing for ascent and
   cooling, within the exit region of a digging jet streak (to the west
   of the mid-level trough axis), may approach coastal areas south of
   San Francisco Bay overnight, possibly supporting a developing band
   of frontal convection with some lightning.

   ..Kerr.. 11/29/2023

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z