Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 290040
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
Valid 290100Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S.
through tonight.
...01Z Update...
Some lightning was noted earlier today with convection beneath the
cold core of a weakening mid-level low, which is now a couple
hundred miles west-southwest of the northern California coast. The
remnant mid-level circulation may shift into coastal areas near
Eureka by late tonight, but the associated weakening, occluded
surface low and front are forecast to remain offshore of the
California coast. Stronger mid-level forcing for ascent and
cooling, within the exit region of a digging jet streak (to the west
of the mid-level trough axis), may approach coastal areas south of
San Francisco Bay overnight, possibly supporting a developing band
of frontal convection with some lightning.
..Kerr.. 11/29/2023
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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