Nov 22, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Nov 22 00:48:44 UTC 2019 (20191122 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20191122 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20191122 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20191122 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20191122 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20191122 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 220048

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0648 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

   Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are possible tonight across parts of Arizona and from
   the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   The latest water vapor imagery shows southwest mid-level flow over
   the southern Plains with a shortwave ridge from the central High
   Plains extending southwestward into the Arklatex. An upper-level low
   is located across the Desert Southwest. Isolated thunderstorms will
   be possible tonight to the south of the upper-level low across parts
   of Arizona. Thunderstorms may also occur tonight from west Texas
   eastward into the Arklatex and the mid Mississippi Valley where warm
   advection is ongoing. Instability should be insufficient for severe
   thunderstorms tonight across the CONUS.

   ..Broyles.. 11/22/2019

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z