Oct 15, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Oct 15 00:38:32 UTC 2018 (20181015 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20181015 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20181015 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 38,884 6,947,509 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
MARGINAL 92,714 7,916,791 San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Laredo, TX...Shreveport, LA...Killeen, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20181015 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 59,456 7,809,681 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Arlington, TX...Garland, TX...Shreveport, LA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20181015 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 29,992 6,456,665 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
5 % 96,636 8,171,134 San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Shreveport, LA...Killeen, TX...Denton, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20181015 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 18,140 654,228 Del Rio, TX...Kerrville, TX...Uvalde, TX...Fredericksburg, TX...Hondo, TX...
5 % 110,499 14,001,240 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...
   SPC AC 150038

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0738 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

   Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
   NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TX AND THE WESTERN TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe storms are possible tonight across parts of
   north-central and northeast Texas as well as western Texas Hill
   Country. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards.

   ...01Z Update...

   ...North-Central/Northeast TX...
   Thunderstorm coverage and intensity has increased over the past hour
   or so as the front moves through north-central TX. Given the
   favorable shear profiles, organized updrafts are anticipated, with
   an attendant threat for hail and damaging wind gusts. Expectation is
   for these storms to continue northeastward in northeast TX along and
   just behind the front. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415 was recently
   issued to address this severe threat. 

   ...Edwards Plateau/TX Hill Country...
   Thunderstorms are still expected to develop along and ahead of the
   front across the Edwards Plateau and into the western portions of
   the TX Hill Country. 00Z DRT sounding sampled an environment
   supportive of supercells and all severe hazards, although the
   undercutting nature of the front should keep any tornado threat
   relatively low.

   ..Mosier.. 10/15/2018

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z