SPC AC 270537

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1237 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of central and
   southern Florida Tuesday into Tuesday night, in association with
   Hurricane Ian.

   ...Synopsis...
   A fairly amplified upper-level pattern will exist across the CONUS
   today. A broad upper trough will be positioned within the lower
   Great Lakes into parts of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. A large
   western ridge will shift eastward into the High Plains with another
   shortwave trough impacting the Northwest. At the surface, a cold
   front will be situated in the northern Gulf into northern Florida
   and arcing northeastward just off the eastern coastline. Per the
   latest NHC forecast, Hurricane Ian will continue to move
   north-northeastward closer to the western Florida coast by early
   Wednesday.

   ...Central/Southern Florida...
   Ahead of the cold front that is not expected to move out of north
   Florida, ample tropical moisture will already be in place across
   central and southern Florida. This very moist airmass will not need
   much heating to promote on the order of 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Low-level
   wind fields/shear will increase through the day and into the evening
   as Ian approaches. Given the track of Ian, perhaps multiple bands of
   semi-discrete convection will impact parts of central and southern
   Florida. Enlarged low-level hodographs and sufficient buoyancy will
   support a threat for a few tornadoes.

   ..Wendt/Darrow.. 09/27/2022

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