SPC AC 260548

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1248 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF NM AND FAR WEST TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of far
   west Texas into southwestern New Mexico.

   ...NM/West TX...

   Late-evening model guidance is in general agreement regarding the
   evolution of large-scale features across the southwestern US through
   the day1 period. Upper ridging currently located along the AZ/NM
   border is expected to shift east to near the TX border by 27/00z
   which will allow somewhat stronger southwesterly mid-high level flow
   to materialize by peak heating. Downstream, dominant Plains surface
   ridge has forced higher-quality boundary-layer moisture into deep
   south TX and adjacent regions of northern Mexico east of the
   Orientals. As the upper ridge flattens across the southern Rockies,
   low-level trajectories will become more favorable for higher-PW
   airmass to surge northwest across far west TX into southern NM.
   Latest surface analysis at 05Z suggest this is underway as surface
   dew points have risen into the mid 40s across southern Presidio
   county over the last few hours.  There is increasing confidence that
   mid 40s-lower 50s dew points will advance into the MRGL Risk region
   by peak heating. While there is no evidence for a meaningful
   mid-level disturbance upstream of this region, strong boundary-layer
   heating and orographic influences should contribute to thunderstorm
   development as surface readings breach convective temperatures,
   likely by 21-22z. Forecast shear profiles favor supercell
   development and slow-moving storms should evolve from northern
   Mexico northward into central NM by late afternoon. Latest CAMs
   support this scenario and large hail should be the primary risk with
   eastward-moving convection. At this time there is some concern that
   storm coverage may be somewhat limited; however, if it becomes more
   clear that scattered storms will develop then higher severe probs
   may be warranted.

   ..Darrow/Nauslar.. 03/26/2019

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