SPC AC 210507
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 PM CST Sun Jan 20 2019
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Probability of lightning is less than 10% across the country today.
Intense 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across the southern
Great Basin into the southern Rockies by the end of the period. As a
result, cooling profiles will lead to steep mid-level lapse rates
across the Four-Corners region during the day as a strong jet
settles into southern AZ/NM. While absolute moisture content will be
scant from northern AZ into CO, forecast soundings suggest weak
buoyancy will develop as profiles cool/moisten. Weak convection will
likely evolve along a pronounced front as it surges across the
Four-Corners, and while an isolated lightning strike cannot be ruled
out, the probability for thunderstorms should remain less than 10%
due to cold profiles and weak buoyancy.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z