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    Day 2 Outlook >
Nov 11, 2019 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Nov 11 05:39:03 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20191111 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20191111 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 110539

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1139 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2019

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Oklahoma,
   eastern and south Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley region. No
   severe weather is expected.

   ...Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley...

   In association with an amplifying synoptic trough over the eastern
   half of the country, a strong cold front will surge southward
   through the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley regions
   today. Preceding the front, dewpoints generally in the 50s to near
   60F will advect through the warm sector beneath modest lapse rates
   supporting weak instability (MUCAPE generally near or below 500
   J/kg). Elevated convection will likely be ongoing in frontal zone
   from OK into AR at the start of the period. While most of this
   activity will be too shallow for lightning, the convective layer
   might become sufficient for a few thunderstorms. Additional, mostly
   shallow convection will likely develop along the length of the front
   through TX during the day. Greatest chance for thunderstorms will
   probably be across south TX, especially in post frontal zone late
   today into this evening where a deeper unstable layer is expected to
   evolve.

   ..Dial.. 11/11/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: November 11, 2019
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