SPC AC 010502
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected after sunrise.
Mid-level height falls will strengthen across the southern Plains
during the latter half of the period ahead of a notable short-wave
trough that should advance into OK/north TX during the overnight
hours. As a result, meaningful large-scale ascent will remain
focused well north of the surface front which should surge of the TX
Coast early in the period. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates
will remain conducive for elevated convection ahead of the short
wave. There is some concern that a few robust updrafts may be
ongoing at the start of the period across south-central TX, in
closer proximity to a bit more buoyancy; however, any hail
production should remain mostly sub-severe. Downstream, weak
low-level convergence along the southward-advancing front will not
be particularly advantageous for more than isolated lightning
flashes within the strongest convection.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z