SPC AC 210507

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1107 PM CST Sun Jan 20 2019

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Probability of lightning is less than 10% across the country today.

   ...Discussion...

   Intense 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across the southern
   Great Basin into the southern Rockies by the end of the period. As a
   result, cooling profiles will lead to steep mid-level lapse rates
   across the Four-Corners region during the day as a strong jet
   settles into southern AZ/NM. While absolute moisture content will be
   scant from northern AZ into CO, forecast soundings suggest weak
   buoyancy will develop as profiles cool/moisten. Weak convection will
   likely evolve along a pronounced front as it surges across the
   Four-Corners, and while an isolated lightning strike cannot be ruled
   out, the probability for thunderstorms should remain less than 10%
   due to cold profiles and weak buoyancy.

   ..Darrow/Karstens.. 01/21/2019

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z