SPC AC 040520

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1120 PM CST Fri Dec 03 2021

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are expected from the Arklatex to the
   northern Gulf States.

   ...Arklatex to northern Gulf States...

   Weak short-wave trough over northeast TX is forecast to advance
   slowly across the lower MS Valley later today before ejecting into
   the central Gulf States overnight. In its wake, broad short-wave
   ridging is forecast across TX ahead of the Baja Peninsula upper
   trough. This flow regime will result in moist warm sector holding
   across much of eastern TX/lower MS Valley. With the weak short-wave
   trough forecast to advance across the lower MS Valley, low-level
   flow will veer a bit and deep-layer flow is forecast to actually be
   seasonally weak, though cool at mid levels. While large-scale
   forcing for ascent is not expected to contribute appreciably, weak
   low-level warm advection should be the primary forcing mechanism for
   elevated convection. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near
   850mb across the Arklatex could yield MUCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg.
   However, effective shear will be weak and NAM sounding at PRX around
   20Z suggests only 10kt at 500 mb. While some elevated convection is
   expected across this region, weak shear and short-wave ridging will
   not prove particularly favorable for large hail. Cool mid-level
   temperatures may contribute to small hail in the strongest updrafts,
   but the probability for severe appears too low to warrant a risk
   this period.

   ..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/04/2021

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