SPC AC 280529

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1129 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected Saturday.

   ...East Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley...

   Upper ridging is expected to hold across the Gulf Basin Saturday
   with broad height rises forecast across the Gulf States. Latest
   satellite imagery suggests one notable short-wave trough is digging
   southeast across NV and this feature will translate into the
   southern Rockies before deamplifying as it ejects into the mid MS
   Valley late in the period. Another significant, low-latitude
   short-wave trough will approach south TX late in the period. In both
   cases these features are not expected to provide appreciable
   large-scale forcing to a region (east TX/lower MS Valley) that will
   experience significant moistening through the day1 period.

   The northerly short wave will encourage a strengthening low-level
   jet over the Arklatex later today before translating into the TN
   Valley during the overnight hours. Remnant weak low-level warm
   advection will persist across east TX/lower MS Valley which should
   aid convective development, primarily during the latter half of the
   period. Latest model guidance suggests ample buoyancy will develop
   across this region as modified Gulf air mass advances inland ahead
   of a surging cold front that will extend from southeast MO-northeast
   TX by 29/12z. Forecast soundings suggest updrafts will likely remain
   elevated, but there is some potential for small hail as buoyancy
   increases after midnight. At this time it appears instability will
   prove a bit too meager to warrant probabilities for severe hail (>1
   inch).

   ..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/28/2023

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z