SPC AC 040433

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1133 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
   today through tonight.

   ...Discussion...
   Seasonably high moisture content will generally remain confined to
   where the low-level easterlies prevail, across the southwestern
   Atlantic through the Gulf Basin during this period.  The boundary
   layer does remain relatively moist across much of the southeastern
   U.S., but this region, and most areas east of the Mississippi
   Valley, are forecast to remain under the influence of surface high
   pressure.  Still, weak to modest destabilization and orographic
   forcing with daytime heating may contribute to some thunderstorm
   development today across parts of the upper Tennessee Valley and
   Cumberland Plateau into the Blue Ridge.  Otherwise, higher
   thunderstorm probabilities likely will remain focused across
   southern portions of the Florida Peninsula and immediate
   northwestern through north central Gulf coastal areas.  An area of
   thunderstorm development, largely aided by ascent associated with
   lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may be ongoing at 12Z this
   morning across parts of southeastern Iowa and adjacent northeastern
   Missouri/west central Illinois.  But this appears likely to
   gradually diminish while slowly spreading southeastward across west
   central/central Illinois through mid to late morning.

   The stronger westerlies remain confined to the northern
   mid-latitudes, with one rather vigorous embedded short wave trough
   forecast to rapidly accelerate inland of the Pacific Northwest coast
   and across the northern Rockies by 12Z Saturday.  Models indicate
   that this will be accompanied by cyclogenesis to the lee of the
   Canadian Rockies, and strong pre- and post-frontal
   lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields across the northern U.S. Rockies
   into Great Plains.  Despite rather dry initial conditions, strong
   mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to at least weak
   high-based convection, near or above/to the cool side of the surging
   cold front.  While it is possible that this could coincide with
   strong/gusty surface conditions, forecast soundings suggest minimal
   potential for these gusts to be related to moist convective
   processes, and it still appears unlikely that this convection will
   be accompanied by much, if any, lightning.

   ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 10/04/2024

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