Click-to-scroll-up Image
Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 27, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 27 05:52:11 UTC 2023 (Print Version | 20230327 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20230327 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 270552

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1252 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
   GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
   across Georgia into southern South Carolina.  Large hail and
   damaging gusts are the primary risks.

   ...Synopsis...
   A largely zonal upper-air pattern will extend from northern Mexico
   east to the Southeast states, which will be located latitudinally
   south of a couple of disturbances rotating through cyclonic flow
   over the central High Plains and Great Lakes.  In the low levels, a
   weak surface low will develop east from the central Appalachians
   into the western Atlantic, while an attendant cold front pushes
   southward into the Southeast and central Gulf Coast/TX by Monday
   night.

   ...Southeast...
   Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the
   Carolinas in association with a 50-kt southwesterly LLJ centered
   over NC at daybreak.  An isolated risk for strong to locally severe
   thunderstorms may continue into the mid morning in the coastal
   Carolinas where deep-layer shear and an adequately moist/unstable
   airmass are forecast.  Trailing outflow will likely be draped across
   SC in wake of this early day activity and may serve as a focus for
   additional storm development during the midday/afternoon.  It is
   unclear in the placement of the boundary and whether appreciable
   destabilization will foster stronger storm development.  Farther
   south into GA/AL/FL vicinity, a more pristine and unstable airmass
   will likely destabilize during the day as strong heating results in
   moderate buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE).  Low-level flow will
   weaken during the day but strong mid to high-level flow will
   persist.  Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast with
   organized storms evolving from the more vigorous updrafts.  This
   activity will likely diminish by early evening.

   ...Southeast TX into LA...
   The western extension of the composite boundary will slowly sag
   southward into the northwest Gulf Coast region during the day.  A
   relatively moist boundary layer near/south of the boundary and
   diurnal heating will result in 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE amidst 40-50 kt
   effective shear.  Models continue to show at least isolated to
   widely scattered storms developing near or north of the boundary,
   mainly Monday night.  Isolated large hail appears to be the primary
   risk.

   ..Smith/Weinman.. 03/27/2023

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 27, 2023
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities