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    Day 2 Outlook >
Oct 3, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Oct 3 05:59:45 UTC 2023 (Print Version | 20231003 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20231003 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 030559

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 AM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z


   Thunderstorms, associated with large hail, wind damage, and a few
   tornadoes, will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts
   of the Great Plains.

   ...Southern and Central Plains...
   An upper-level trough will move into the High Plains today, as an
   associated mid-level jet on the eastern side of the system moves
   through the central Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen and
   move across the northern Plains, as a cold front advances eastward
   into the central and northern High Plains. Strong low-level moisture
   advection in the central Plains will replenish low-level moisture
   ahead of the front. Surface dewpoints will likely reach the lower to
   mid 60s F by afternoon from northwest Texas northward into central
   Kansas and southern Nebraska. As surface temperatures warm during
   the day, moderate instability will develop along and near the moist
   axis. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. As
   low-level convergence increases ahead of the front, scattered
   thunderstorms will form from west Texas north-northeastward into
   west-central Kansas and central Nebraska. These storms will move
   northeastward into the stronger instability during the late
   afternoon and evening. MCS development will be possible.

   RAP forecast soundings at 00Z/Wednesday along the moist axis from
   northwest Texas to south-central Nebraska have 0-6 km shear
   generally in the 45 to 55 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates
   near 7.5 C/km. This will support supercell development with large
   hail and wind damage likely in and around the stronger cores.
   Hailstones of greater than 2 inches will be possible in association
   with the more intense supercell updrafts along this corridor during
   the late afternoon. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is
   forecast to increase into the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range by early
   evening, suggesting that tornadoes will be possible with the more
   intense supercells as well. Wind damage will also be likely with
   supercells and with short bowing line segments. The severe threat is
   expected to continue into the mid to late evening, as the low-level
   jet gradually strengthens across the region.

   Further south-southwest into parts of west Texas, isolated to
   scattered thunderstorm development will be likely late this
   afternoon into the evening. The environment will favor supercell
   development, with a potential for large hail and wind damage.

   ...Northern Plains...
   An upper-level trough will move into the northern Plains today, as
   an associated belt of strong mid-level flow on the eastern side of
   the system translates eastward. At the surface, a low will deepen
   and move north-northeastward across North Dakota during the day, as
   a cold front advances eastward in the northern High Plains. Surface
   dewpoints will initially be in the 50s F over much of the northern
   Plains, but a dry slot will cause drier air to advect into the
   region from the southwest. Due to this, a corridor of maximized
   low-level moisture will setup further east across eastern South
   Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Moderate instability may develop
   along the western edge of the moist corridor, where isolated to
   scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the late afternoon
   and early evening. In addition to the moderate instability, 0-6 km
   shear is forecast to be in the 50 to 60 knot range near the
   instability axis suggesting the environment will support supercells.
   There is some question concerning which mode will be favored. If
   supercell mode is favored, then large hail and wind damage can be
   expected with the cells. If linear mode becomes favored, then the
   wind-damage threat could be the greater of the two threats. The most
   likely corridor for severe storms will be across eastern South
   Dakota and far southwest Minnesota, where severe weather parameters
   are forecast to become maximized.

   ..Broyles/Lyons.. 10/03/2023



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