SPC AC 150539

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1139 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND CENTRAL GULF
   STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe weather is expected from East Texas and Mid-South into much
   of the Southeast. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a
   few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late
   afternoon through the overnight hours.

   ...Discussion...

   Strong 500mb jet is currently digging southeast across the lower CO
   River Valley. This feature is forecast to translate into far West TX
   early in the period, then increase in intensity as it ejects into
   the downstream side of the upper trough during the overnight hours.
   Strong 12hr mid-level height falls are forecast to overspread much
   of the lower MS/TN Valley region, with upwards of 210m expected
   across northern areas by the end of the period. This evolution will
   induce a surface low across north-central TX early which will track
   into eastern AR by late afternoon, then deepen as it lifts into the
   OH during the overnight hours.

   LLJ should respond markedly and focus across the lower MS Valley
   during the first half of the period. Boundary-layer air mass is
   currently cool/stable across this region with modified Gulf air just
   now approaching the upper TX coast and southern LA. Until this air
   can advance inland any thunderstorm activity should be elevated in
   nature, and likely sub-severe.

   Latest thinking is boundary-layer recovery will occur across east TX
   into southern AR by late morning, then further destabilization
   should contribute to surface-based buoyancy that will support
   potentially robust thunderstorms ahead of the aforementioned surface
   low/cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong shear across
   this region with 0-3km SRH on the order of 500 m2/s2. Supercells are
   expected to develop along a corridor from northern LA into western
   TN from the afternoon into the early evening. Damaging winds and
   tornadoes are expected. Additionally, given the strength of the wind
   fields, and very dynamic, fast-moving trough, there is a risk for
   strong tornadoes. Frontal convection should expand in areal coverage
   as the boundary surges southeast.

   During the latter part of the period, a secondary corridor of
   concentrated severe may evolve from southeast LA, across southern MS
   into southern AL. Strong LLJ will shift east overnight, and somewhat
   higher theta-e air mass should have advanced inland into this region
   ahead of the surging cold front. While damaging winds can be
   expected with the more linear convection, some risk for strong
   tornadoes does exist with more discrete supercells.

   ..Darrow/Thornton.. 02/15/2025

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