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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 22, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed May 22 06:00:23 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240522 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240522 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 220600

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z


   Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes will
   be likely today across parts of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex.
   Isolated severe storms will be possible today from parts of the mid
   Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley and Lower
   Great Lakes.

   ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex...
   West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place over a moist and
   unstable airmass today across much of the southern Plains and
   Ark-La-Tex. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward
   into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Texas by afternoon. As surface
   temperatures and low-level convergence increase along and near the
   front, convective initiation will become likely around midday.
   Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move
   east-southeastward across the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex during
   the afternoon. The development of a large severe MCS appears likely.

   Ahead of the front, moderate to strong instability is forecast by
   afternoon, with MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In
   addition, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the
   moist airmass. At 21Z along and near the axis of greatest convective
   potential, forecast soundings from the northern Texas Hill Country
   northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60
   knot range. This suggests that supercells will be possible, mainly
   early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete and
   cell interactions are less likely. In addition, forecast soundings
   near the axis of strongest instability, have 700-500 mb lapse rates
   in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for
   large hail with supercells, with hailstones of greater than 2 inches
   in diameter possible with the strongest of storms. In areas where
   cells congeal into a line, wind damage will become likely. The
   greatest potential will be with the faster-moving bowing segments. A
   few tornadoes are also expected, mainly with supercells and or bow

   The severe threat is expected to persist into the early to mid
   evening, as the linear MCS moves across parts of central and east
   Texas into northern Louisiana.
   ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes...
   A shortwave trough will move northeastward into the western Great
   Lakes today, as a northeast-to-southwest oriented pre-frontal trough
   advances eastward through the Ohio Valley. A narrow corridor of
   instability will develop near the pre-frontal trough from the mid
   Mississippi Valley northeastward to the lower Great Lakes. As
   surface temperatures warm along the front during the day, isolated
   to scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate. Multiple
   thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop and move eastward
   through the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings at
   21Z along the axis of instability from western Kentucky
   northeastward into central Ohio generally have 0-6 km shear in the
   35 to 45 knot range. This, combined with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, will
   support a potential for organized severe storms. Although supercells
   will be possible, there may be a tendency for storms to organize
   into short line segments due to flow that will be oriented parallel
   to the convective axis. Wind damage will be the primary threat,
   although hail and a marginal tornado threat will be possible in the
   lower Great Lakes, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be the
   strongest. The severe threat could persist into the early evening,
   as cells move into the central Appalachians.

   ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/22/2024



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