SPC AC 270552

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1252 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
   GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
   across Georgia into southern South Carolina.  Large hail and
   damaging gusts are the primary risks.

   ...Synopsis...
   A largely zonal upper-air pattern will extend from northern Mexico
   east to the Southeast states, which will be located latitudinally
   south of a couple of disturbances rotating through cyclonic flow
   over the central High Plains and Great Lakes.  In the low levels, a
   weak surface low will develop east from the central Appalachians
   into the western Atlantic, while an attendant cold front pushes
   southward into the Southeast and central Gulf Coast/TX by Monday
   night.

   ...Southeast...
   Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the
   Carolinas in association with a 50-kt southwesterly LLJ centered
   over NC at daybreak.  An isolated risk for strong to locally severe
   thunderstorms may continue into the mid morning in the coastal
   Carolinas where deep-layer shear and an adequately moist/unstable
   airmass are forecast.  Trailing outflow will likely be draped across
   SC in wake of this early day activity and may serve as a focus for
   additional storm development during the midday/afternoon.  It is
   unclear in the placement of the boundary and whether appreciable
   destabilization will foster stronger storm development.  Farther
   south into GA/AL/FL vicinity, a more pristine and unstable airmass
   will likely destabilize during the day as strong heating results in
   moderate buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE).  Low-level flow will
   weaken during the day but strong mid to high-level flow will
   persist.  Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast with
   organized storms evolving from the more vigorous updrafts.  This
   activity will likely diminish by early evening.

   ...Southeast TX into LA...
   The western extension of the composite boundary will slowly sag
   southward into the northwest Gulf Coast region during the day.  A
   relatively moist boundary layer near/south of the boundary and
   diurnal heating will result in 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE amidst 40-50 kt
   effective shear.  Models continue to show at least isolated to
   widely scattered storms developing near or north of the boundary,
   mainly Monday night.  Isolated large hail appears to be the primary
   risk.

   ..Smith/Weinman.. 03/27/2023

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