SPC AC 090552

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1152 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging gusts and a brief tornado
   are possible across south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the
   Florida Panhandle/Big Bend region today. Isolated severe gusts may
   accompany showers and isolated thunderstorms across parts of
   Indiana, Ohio, and southern lower Michigan this morning and
   afternoon.

   ...Synopsis...
   A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to
   eject northeastward from the mid MS Valley toward the lower Great
   Lakes and Northeast by tonight. A related surface cyclone will move
   from central Illinois toward Ontario and southern Quebec, as an
   attendant cold front moves through parts of the Southeast, TN/OH
   Valleys, and Northeast.  

   ...South AL...Southeast GA...FL Panhandle/Big Bend region...
   A band of convection may be ongoing across parts of south AL and FL
   Panhandle at the start of the period, with sufficient low/midlevel
   flow/shear for an isolated damaging-wind threat. A general weakening
   trend is expected through the morning, as the primary large-scale
   ascent moves away from the region and convergence along the cold
   front weakens near the Gulf Coast. Modest diurnal
   heating/destabilization may allow for some intensification or
   redevelopment of deep convection along/ahead of the cold front this
   afternoon. Deep-layer flow/shear will tend to weaken with time, but
   may remain sufficient for a few organized cells/clusters capable of
   locally damaging gusts through the afternoon. Low-level shear may
   remain sufficient to support a brief tornado threat as well, if any
   supercell can be sustained within the weakly forced regime. 

   Some redevelopment of primarily elevated convection is possible
   later tonight from southeast LA toward the AL/FL Gulf Coast region,
   but generally weak instability is expected to limit the severe
   threat with the overnight storms. 

   ...East-central IL into IN/OH and southern lower MI...
   As the negatively tilted mid/upper-level trough and surface low/cold
   front move quickly northeastward, low-topped convective showers will
   be possible along/ahead of the front from eastern IL into IN early
   this morning, spreading into parts of OH and southern lower MI by
   mid/late morning into the afternoon. Low ELs and very weak buoyancy
   will preclude lightning production with most or all of this
   convection, but with very strong low-level flow (65+ kt at 1 km
   AGL), even modest convective gust enhancement may result in
   localized strong/damaging winds across the region.

   ..Dean/Weinman.. 02/09/2023

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