SPC AC 020520
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Mon Aug 02 2021
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
A few storms with downburst winds will be possible over central
Oregon this afternoon and early evening.
With near-surface dewpoints mostly in the 40s F, the atmosphere will
become marginally unstable later this afternoon (400-800 J/kg
MLCAPE) supported by strong surface heating in presence of steep
(7.5-8 C/km) mid-level lapse rates. A shortwave trough currently
near the northern CA coast will continue into this region today, and
widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop as the
boundary layer destabilizes during the afternoon. Storms will be
high-based with updrafts rooted near 650 mb. Steep lapse rates and
inverted-v profiles in the sub-cloud layer will support a threat of
isolated downburst winds through early evening.
...Rockies through the Gulf Coast states...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will once again develop
from the Rockies through the Gulf Coast states within environments
characterized by marginal to moderate instability and weak vertical
shear. While some of these storms will become capable of producing a
few strong wind gusts, any severe events are expected to remain too
sparse for a categorical risk area.
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