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    Day 2 Outlook >
Nov 30, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 30 05:52:42 UTC 2022 (Print Version | 20221130 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20221130 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 300552

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1152 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

   Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
   GEORGIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging winds and a
   tornado or two will be possible across parts of the Southeast,
   mainly this morning.

   ...Southeast...
   A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at
   the start of the period later this morning from near the mouth of
   the MS River northeastward into GA. This line is expected to
   continue moving quickly southeastward across southern AL, the FL
   Panhandle, and central/southern GA through midday. A sufficiently
   moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the line
   across these areas, with weaker instability with northward extent
   into GA. Given the linear convective mode, scattered damaging winds
   should be the primary severe threat this morning. Low-level flow is
   forecast to gradually veer and weaken with time as a southerly
   low-level jet shifts northward and away from the surface warm
   sector. This should result in slowly weakening low-level shear
   through the morning. Still, a tornado or two embedded within the
   line may occur before the low-level flow veers/weakens too much.
   Convection should diminish in coverage and intensity through the
   afternoon across southeast GA and north FL as it encounters a less
   unstable airmass and becomes displaced from the stronger forcing
   aloft.

   ...Mid-Atlantic/New England...
   A pronounced mid/upper-level trough initially over the Great Lakes
   and OH Valley will move east-northeastward over the Mid-Atlantic and
   New England by this evening. A strong cold front will develop
   eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through the day, with
   rather meager low-level moisture return expected along/ahead of the
   front. Still, the gradually increasing moisture, favorable low-level
   convergence along the front, and strong large-scale ascent may
   support the development of a low-topped frontal band within the
   larger precipitation shield. Strong wind gusts could accompany any
   such convective band. But, with surface-based instability forecast
   to remain negligible, the potential for convectively enhanced gusts
   appears too limited to include severe wind probabilities at this
   time.

   ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 11/30/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: November 30, 2022
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