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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 22, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 22 05:31:42 UTC 2022 (Print Version | 20220522 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220522 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 220531

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1231 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe storms with wind damage and hail will be possible
   across parts of the Northeast on Sunday. A marginal severe threat
   may also develop from the Carolina Piedmont to the Gulf Coast
   states.

   ...Northeast...

   Upper ridge will flatten across New England Sunday as strong
   mid-level flow translates across ON into QC ahead of a short-wave
   trough. As a result, large-scale ascent will primarily remain north
   of the international border. Even so, in response to the Canadian
   short wave, some semblance of a LLJ will evolve ahead of the front
   with southwesterly 850mb flow expected to increase to near 40kt
   along the Maine/QC border. Latest guidance suggests a weak surface
   low will track across southern QC which will encourage the warm
   sector to recover a bit across northern ME, ensuring adequate
   buoyancy for robust updrafts.

   Latest model guidance suggests much of the northeastern US will
   experience seasonally strong boundary-layer heating ahead of the
   front. Scattered convection should readily develop across the warm
   sector in advance of the wind shift. Forecast soundings support
   supercells along with organized multicell clusters. 

   Early this morning, a substantial amount of convection has
   progressed into the TN Valley and there is some indication a weak
   disturbance could evolve from the middle TN activity by sunrise. If
   so, this feature would progress northeast and likely contribute to
   renewed convection over the middle Atlantic later today. At this
   time will not extend SLGT Risk into MD/VA to account for this
   threat, as this feature may be more readily ascertained by late
   morning.

   ...Lower Latitudes...

   A substantial amount of deep convection has evolved and propagated
   into the central Gulf Basin. Latest model guidance suggests somewhat
   stronger mid-level flow will evolve across the eastern Gulf which
   could extend toward the FL Big Bend region. Forecast soundings
   exhibit substantial low-level turning and this may contribute to
   some weak rotation at times within stronger updrafts.

   Extensive frontal convection continues from middle TN-southern
   AR-south TX. This activity is expected to propagate southeast toward
   the middle/upper TX/southwestern LA coast toward the beginning of
   the period. Any daytime robust convection should evolve ahead of
   this activity. Gusty winds would be the primary severe threat.

   ..Darrow/Moore.. 05/22/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: May 22, 2022
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