SPC AC 280455

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1155 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA...AND
   SOUTH TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of
   the Gulf Coast and Southeast, and in a separate area over south
   Texas.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level shortwave trough will quickly move from the lower MO
   Valley eastward to VA/NC by late evening.  Located to the south
   across the Gulf Coast states, a belt of strong 500-mb westerly flow
   will persist across the southern U.S.  In the low levels, a largely
   stalled front will be draped across the central Gulf Coast eastward
   through the GA/FL border region during the morning.  The western
   extension of this boundary will quickly push southward as a cold
   front during the morning across much of south TX, while the eastern
   portion moves southeast during the day.

   ...Central Gulf Coast to southern Georgia and north Florida...
   Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across
   the central Gulf Coast near the surface boundary.  A moisture-rich
   airmass and strong deep-layer shear will aid in some organization to
   the more vigorous storms.  A risk for localized damaging gusts
   and/or marginal hail may accompany the stronger storms.  Additional
   storm development is indicated by model guidance during the day
   coincident with diurnal heating to the east of the activity.  Long
   hodographs and moderate buoyancy (1500 J/kg MLCAPE) may yield a
   slightly higher coverage for severe (i.e., eastern FL Panhandle into
   north FL).  However, uncertainty in the evolution of the morning
   storms evolving into one or two clusters may negate some
   destabilization via cloud cover.  The scattered thunderstorms will
   likely push east-southeast across this region during the day with
   the severe risk subsiding by early evening.

   ...South Texas...
   Moderate elevated instability will exist across South Texas during
   much of the period Tuesday.  Forcing will be nebulous, but a
   southward-surging front in the morning, and an approaching
   subtropical mid-level jet streak in the evening may both be
   sufficient for some elevated thunderstorms.  A stronger storm or two
   may pose an isolated risk for large hail.

   ..Smith/Weinman.. 03/28/2023

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