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    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 5, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 5 06:00:10 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240305 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240305 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 050600

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1200 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   EAST TX/OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible through the
   day across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi
   Valley. Hail and damaging winds should be the main threats.

   ...East TX/OK into the lower MS Valley...
   Convection will likely be ongoing during the morning somewhere from
   east TX into the ArkLaTex region, though uncertainty remains
   regarding the evolution of this convection during the overnight
   hours prior to the start of the forecast period. In general, one or
   more clusters may develop and move southeastward through the
   morning. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear could support some
   storm organization, though instability may remain limited near the
   lower MS Valley due to the influence of extensive convection on
   Monday, and increasing overnight convection over the Gulf of Mexico.
   Some threat for damaging gusts and perhaps some hail could accompany
   the morning storms if organized convection can be sustained. 

   Most guidance suggests severe potential will wane across the region
   in the wake of the morning convection. However, depending on the
   strength and extent of convective outflow, moderate destabilization
   may be possible during the afternoon from east TX/OK into portions
   of AR/LA. While large-scale ascent will be weak in the wake of a
   shortwave trough associated with the morning convection, isolated
   redevelopment cannot be ruled out along any remnant outflow
   boundary. Should this occur, MLCAPE potentially in excess of 1500
   J/kg and modest deep-layer shear could be sufficient to support an
   isolated hail and damaging wind threat with any sustained
   afternoon/evening storms.

   ...Florida...
   Most guidance suggests that an MCS will develop over the Gulf of
   Mexico and move eastward through the day. Guidance also suggests
   that the MCS (or its remnant) will not reach the FL Peninsula until
   later in the evening, though there is some potential it will
   progress eastward faster than expected. In advance of the MCS,
   isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible over
   the Peninsula as low-level moisture gradually increases. With
   instability expected to remain rather weak, severe potential appears
   relatively limited with both the MCS and any earlier convection.
   However, with modestly favorable low-level and deep-layer shear
   potentially overspreading parts of the Peninsula, the severe
   potential will continue to be monitored in subsequent outlooks. 

   ...OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes...
   Scattered convection will be possible through the day from parts of
   the OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes, in association with a cold
   front. Large-scale ascent and deep-layer flow/shear is expected to
   be rather weak, since the region is located between a departing
   northern-stream shortwave trough, and the southern-stream system
   affecting the Gulf Coast states. Modest preconvective heating and
   cool temperatures aloft could support gusty winds and small hail
   with the strongest storms, though the organized severe-thunderstorm
   threat appears limited.

   ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/05/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: March 05, 2024
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