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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jun 15, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 15 05:58:42 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240615 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240615 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 150558

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1258 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
   NE/WESTERN IA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST
   MO...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHERN MN...AND ALSO FROM EASTERN MT INTO THE
   WESTERN DAKOTAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail
   are possible from the late afternoon into the evening, both across
   the Mid-Missouri Valley and also from eastern Montana to central
   North Dakota. A couple of tornadic storms may occur in eastern
   Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and
   wind possible across parts of the northern Great Plains.

   ...Eastern NE/northeast KS into western IA...
   A weakening or decayed MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of
   the period somewhere from extreme eastern NE into western IA. In the
   wake of this feature, an outflow-reinforced front will likely begin
   lifting northward across some part of eastern NE into western IA
   through the day. Diurnal heating will support moderate to strong
   destabilization, both within a richly moist environment near/north
   of the front, and within a somewhat hotter and more well-mixed
   environment south of the front. As a mid/upper-level trough (with
   multiple embedded vorticity maxima) approaches the mid MO Valley,
   and MLCINH diminishes during the afternoon, isolated to widely
   scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. 

   Along and immediately north of the front, favorable instability,
   seasonably strong low-level flow, and a favorably veered wind
   profile in the lowest 3 km will be favorable for tornadic
   supercells, though rather modest flow above 3 km may result in a
   tendency for a cluster or complex storm mode with time. Any
   supercells that can be sustained within this regime would pose a
   tornado threat, in addition to hail and damaging-wind potential.
   However, considerable uncertainty remains, both regarding the
   frontal position during the time of storm initiation, and also the
   longevity of a more discrete supercell mode. The 5% tornado area has
   been expanded somewhat to account for the spatial uncertainty. 

   Some modest upscale growth will be possible later in the storm
   evolution, which could result in a threat for damaging wind and
   possibly a line-embedded tornado or two spreading east-northeastward
   into parts of central IA and southern MN during the evening. 

   ...Northern Great Plains...
   A rather strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across
   the Northwest and northern Rockies later today, and begin
   approaching the northern High Plains tonight. A surface cyclone is
   forecast to deepen near the MT/WY border during the day, and then
   move northeastward across the western Dakotas vicinity this evening.
   Near and east of the surface cyclone, MLCAPE is forecast to increase
   into the 1500-2500 J/kg range from parts of eastern MT into the
   Dakotas, while stronger deep-layer flow/shear attendant to the
   approaching shortwave will begin impinging on the warm sector by
   late afternoon into the evening. 

   Storm development is expected by late afternoon from eastern MT/WY
   into the western Dakotas, with development of one or more intense
   storm clusters possible by early evening. Large to very large hail
   could accompany any sustained supercells within this regime,
   especially from eastern MT into western ND. Isolated significant
   severe gusts will also be possible, especially in areas where
   stronger heating/mixing occurs, and also in association with any
   more organized upscale growth. A tornado or two will also be
   possible, especially if any supercell across western ND can be
   sustained into the evening, when a notable increase in low-level
   flow/shear will be possible. 

   ...Southern High Plains vicinity...
   Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this
   afternoon and evening across parts of the southern High Plains, and
   also across the higher terrain of southwest TX. Moderate buoyancy
   and marginally favorable deep-layer shear could support a couple of
   modestly organized storms. Isolated severe gusts will be possible
   within a generally hot and well-mixed environment, along with some
   potential for hail.

   ..Dean/Thornton.. 06/15/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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