SPC AC 280507
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK...
Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern
Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast.
A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley
across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday
morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east
side of the trough, with meridional orientation.
At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves
from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A
fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from
KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon.
Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will
extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS
southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt
southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal
passage and drying.
...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest
Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold
front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is
expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a
somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings
ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective
potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the
strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down
of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low
probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts.
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