SPC AC 070531

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1131 PM CST Tue Dec 06 2022

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe weather is not forecast across the U.S. on Wednesday.

   ...Discussion...

   Dominant upper ridge will remain anchored over the Gulf of Mexico
   region for the next few days, which will encourage short waves that
   bottom out over the southwestern US to eject northeast into the
   middle of the country. One such feature will advance across the
   southern Rockies into the central High Plains by the end of the
   period. In response, LLJ should increase across west TX into western
   KS. While the surface front may briefly lift north across TX as this
   short-wave trough approaches, the vast majority of deep convection
   will develop north of the boundary and remain elevated, primarily
   driven by low-level warm advection. Any convection that tries to
   initiate near the surface front should struggle due to weak
   low-level convergence.

   Warm advection is expected to aid scattered convection along a
   corridor extending from the southern Plains, across AR into the TN
   Valley. Robust updrafts are not expected across this zone due to
   inadequate instability.

   Some elevated thunder potential also exists across coastal New
   England Wednesday evening in advance of a surface front that should
   move off all but Downeast Maine by 08/06z. Weak buoyancy precludes
   any threat of strong updrafts.

   ..Darrow/Moore.. 12/07/2022

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