SPC AC 010519

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1119 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few lightning flashes may occur across the lower Ohio Valley late
   this morning into mid afternoon.

   ...Lower Ohio Valley...

   Strong short-wave trough is expected to dig across the mid-MS Valley
   into the lower OH valley by 18z before translating into the southern
   Appalachians and off the Southeast Coast by the end of the period.
   Large-sale forcing, and subsequent cooling/moistening mid levels,
   will contribute to weak buoyancy across the lower OH Valley region
   later this morning into mid afternoon despite weak moisture return.
   Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb could yield
   around 300 J/kg MUCAPE and weak warm advection ahead of the short
   wave should prove sufficient for weak convection. Strongest updrafts
   may produce a few flashes of lightning; however thunderstorms should
   remain mostly isolated.

   ..Darrow/Moore.. 12/01/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z