Click-to-scroll-up Image
Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 21, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Feb 21 05:51:59 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240221 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240221 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 210551

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1151 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
   MISSOURI INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS
   CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Areas of strong thunderstorm development are possible across parts
   of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains and across central
   Illinois to far western Indiana late Wednesday evening into early
   Thursday, with some risk for severe hail.

   ...Synopsis...
   05 UTC water-vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough lingering off
   the southern California coast. This feature is expected to
   accelerate eastward over the next 24 hours, reaching the
   mid-MS/lower-OH River Valley by early Thursday. Thunderstorm
   potential will be focused with this wave as colder temperatures
   aloft, along with an subtle influx of mid-level Pacific Moisture,
   overspreads the Great Basin/Four Corners. Further east into the
   Plains, moisture return ahead of this feature and an attendant
   surface low will promote isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms
   late tonight into early Thursday morning. 

   ...Ozark Plateau and central Illinois...
   05 UTC surface observations show limited moisture return across
   eastern TX within a weak southerly flow regime. However, poleward
   moisture advection will strengthen through the day as a lee cyclone
   deepens over the central Plains. A low-level thermal ridge in place
   across the southern Plains will prohibit surface-based convection
   along a tightening dryline/Pacific front; however, warm advection on
   the northeastern periphery of the thermal ridge, coupled with some
   low-level moistening/cooling associated with meager Gulf moisture
   return and dynamic ascent within the left-exit region of the
   approach upper jet, should promote isolated to scattered elevated
   thunderstorms after 00 UTC across MO and IL. Elongated hodographs
   within the MUCAPE bearing layer will promote 30-40 knots of
   effective bulk shear, favorable for storm organization. This
   environment will be in place across much of MO, IL and western IN,
   but storm coverage is uncertain owing to the somewhat nebulous/weak
   forcing for ascent within the warm advection regime and/or along the
   mid-level trough axis. However, discrete to semi-discrete storms
   that can reach maturity within this environment should pose a hail
   threat. Hail risks areas are maintained/introduced where latest
   guidance suggests the highest probability of convective initiation.

   ..Moore.. 02/21/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: February 21, 2024
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities