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    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 16, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 16 05:43:42 UTC 2025 (Print Version | 20250216 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20250216 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 160543

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1143 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE
   SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible through
   midday from north Florida to the Savannah River Valley. Isolated
   damaging winds and a brief tornado are also possible northward into
   parts of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon.

   ...FL/GA...
   An extensive QLCS ongoing from parts of the TN Valley to the central
   Gulf Coast should reach the Savannah Valley to the FL Panhandle by
   12Z. Ahead of this line, buoyancy will remain weak inland from the
   northeast Gulf and progressively minimal with northern extent. But
   the latter will be compensated by rather strong low-level
   shear/winds. As such, uncertainty exists on where the strongest
   portion of the line will persist before moving off the South
   Atlantic Coast. Large-scale ascent will subside over north FL during
   the day as the shortwave trough pivots east-northeastward across the
   southern Appalachians. This suggests the severe threat should
   diminish after late morning.

   ...Carolinas to Lower Mid-Atlantic...
   The northern portion of a slowly decaying QLCS should initially be
   elevated atop stable surface air in the lee of the Appalachians and
   parts of the Piedmont in the Carolinas to VA. It should eventually
   impinge on scant surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across
   the coastal Carolinas to perhaps the VA Tidewater. Amid extreme
   low-level shear/winds, any intensification to the thinning
   convective line may yield sporadic damaging winds and even a brief
   tornado. Still, bulk of guidance indicates this potential remains
   too low to warrant higher probabilities at this time.

   In the wake of this initial line, a minority of guidance does
   suggest that modest boundary-layer heating may occur from
   north-central NC into central MD. As a lobe of strong forcing for
   ascent accompanies the basal portion of the vigorous shortwave
   trough crossing the central Appalachians, a few low-topped cells may
   develop in the mid to late afternoon. With such intense lower-level
   flow, locally damaging gusts could accompany this activity. The
   level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded northwestward to account for
   this scenario, but spatial confidence is low with where a
   thunderstorm wind threat may begin.

   ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/16/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: February 16, 2025
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