Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Aug 2, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Aug 2 05:20:56 UTC 2021 (Print Version | 20210802 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20210802 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 020520

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1220 AM CDT Mon Aug 02 2021

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
   OREGON...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few storms with downburst winds will be possible over central
   Oregon this afternoon and early evening.

   ...Oregon...

   With near-surface dewpoints mostly in the 40s F, the atmosphere will
   become marginally unstable later this afternoon (400-800 J/kg
   MLCAPE) supported by strong surface heating in presence of steep
   (7.5-8 C/km) mid-level lapse rates. A shortwave trough currently
   near the northern CA coast will continue into this region today, and
   widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop as the
   boundary layer destabilizes during the afternoon. Storms will be
   high-based with updrafts rooted near 650 mb. Steep lapse rates and
   inverted-v profiles in the sub-cloud layer will support a threat of
   isolated downburst winds through early evening. 

   ...Rockies through the Gulf Coast states...

   Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will once again develop
   from the Rockies through the Gulf Coast states within environments
   characterized by marginal to moderate instability and weak vertical
   shear. While some of these storms will become capable of producing a
   few strong wind gusts, any severe events are expected to remain too
   sparse for a categorical risk area.

   ..Dial/Moore.. 08/02/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 02, 2021
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities