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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 22, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jul 22 05:59:42 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240722 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240722 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 220559

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND WESTERN ARIZONA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible over portions of the
   mid-Atlantic region, and western Arizona on Monday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A broad upper-level trough will remain in place from the Great Lakes
   southwest into northern Texas on Monday, while an embedded impulse
   within the flow around the trough moves across the mid-Atlantic
   states. Another impulse will move southeast across the upper Midwest
   and northern Great Lakes, while an upper-level anticyclone remains
   anchored in the vicinity of the southern Great Basin.

   ...Mid-Atlantic...
   A very moist air mass will be remain in place across the region,
   characterized by PW values in excess of 2 inches. As the embedded
   mid-level impulse lifts northeast across the TN Valley and
   mid-Atlantic region during the day, lower/mid-level wind fields will
   strengthen and result in 30-40 kts of deep-layer shear by afternoon.
   Despite poor lapse rates, 70s dew points will contribute to pockets
   of moderate buoyancy.  Thunderstorms should redevelop during the
   afternoon, aided by ascent with the approaching impulse.  NAM/RAP
   forecast soundings Monday afternoon suggest notable low-level
   hodograph curvature, suggesting some potential for a tornado or two
   across northeast NC and eastern VA, especially with any cells that
   remain relatively discrete.

   ...Western AZ Vicinity...
   Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Mogollon Rim Monday
   afternoon, with hi-res guidance depicting the greatest coverage
   across western AZ.  Northeast mid-level flow of 15-20 kts should be
   sufficient for storms to move into lower elevations characterized by
   a hot/well-mixed boundary layer.  Merging outflows should result in
   clusters of storms with the potential for strong to severe gusts.

   ...Upper Midwest...
   Thunderstorms should re-develop along a southward-moving cold front,
   reinforced by convective outflows, across central/northern MN and
   northwest WI during the day, with the potential for gusty winds and
   perhaps small hail.  Overall thunderstorm intensity should be
   tempered by relatively weak shear, precluding severe probabilities
   with this outlook.

   ..Bunting/Lyons.. 07/22/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: July 22, 2024
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