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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jun 25, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 25 06:01:23 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240625 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240625 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 250601

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0101 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z


   Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
   central/southern Great Plains and Midwest late this afternoon and
   evening. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a tornado or two may
   are possible.

   ...Central Plains and Midwest...
   A complex and highly uncertain forecast scenario is likely to evolve
   today, as the remnants of one or more convective clusters interacts
   with a broadly moist and unstable air mass over the Midwest and
   central Plains. Early in the period, an MCS may be ongoing across
   parts of the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley. Near the eastern
   extent of the buoyancy plume reintensification of the eastern most
   convection/remnants thereof appears unlikely through the morning
   across the mid to upper OH Valley.

   Farther west across IL and IN, any ongoing storms or remnant
   outflow, should continue south and may reintensify/reinvigorate over
   the mid MS Valley by mid morning. While mid-level flow decreases
   with southern extent, moderate buoyancy may sustain a risk for
   damaging gusts with a loosely organized cluster/MCS, potentially as
   far south as the lower OH/Mid MS Valley this evening.

   A greater focus for severe convection appears likely to evolve along
   the slow-moving synoptic cold front drifting south across the
   central Plains. Strong heating along the front ahead of a subtle
   shortwave trough will allow for isolated storm development this
   afternoon. Model soundings show enhanced mid and upper-level shear
   profiles, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. Supercells may
   evolve with an initial risk for large hail, given MLCAPE of
   4000-5000 J/kg and the discrete mode. A brief tornado or two may
   also be possible with enhanced vertical voritcity and low-level
   shear near the front.

   With time, mostly front-parallel flow will favor upscale growth into
   clusters and potentially an MCS over eastern NE and IA. With
   plentiful MLCAPE (2000-3000 J/Kg) in place over the region, damaging
   winds will remain possible as storms track east/southeast into the
   eastern central Plains and the mid MS Valley. The exact
   eastern/southern extent of any severe risk remains quite uncertain,
   given the tendency for storms to outrun the stronger upper-level
   support. Still, a few CAM members suggest a coherent line of storms
   will continue overnight reaching southern MO/IL and eastern KS
   before the start of the Day2 period.

   ...KS OK and the TX Panhandle...
   On the northern fringes of the subtropical ridge over the southern
   third of the CONUS, robust diurnal heating should support very hot
   daytime temperatures along and east of dryline from west-central KS,
   into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. As the western portion of
   the ridge intensifies, flow aloft should gradually veer to
   northwesterly as a weak mid-level perturbation traverses the
   periphery of the ridge and moves out of the central Rockies. Weak
   ascent should overlap with near-convective surface temps in the low
   100s F during the later afternoon, supporting isolated to widely
   scattered thunderstorm development along and east of the dryline.
   Moderate buoyancy within the well-mixed but moist surface air mass,
   along with enhanced mid and upper-level flow, will favor a mixed
   mode of high-based multicell clusters and perhaps transient
   supercells capable of damaging gusts and isolated hail. The
   longevity of these storms is somewhat questionable, given the
   tendency for weakening upper-level support and warming mid-level
   temperature to the south, but at least an isolated severe risk may
   persist into parts of central OK/KS into the early evening.

   ...Dakotas and western MN...
   Behind the main synoptic front, daytime heating over residual
   boundary-layer moisture should support the development of moderate
   buoyancy ahead of a second weaker cold front moving out of southern
   Canada. A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to
   intensify as it moves southeast into the Plains. Modest forcing for
   ascent coupled with weak low-level warm advection may support
   isolated storm development late in the afternoon, eventually moving
   into the eastern Dakotas and western MN by early evening. Relatively
   long and straight hodographs suggest the potential for a few
   elevated supercells with a risk for isolated large hail.

   ..Lyons/Barnes.. 06/25/2024



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