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    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 28, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Feb 28 05:07:11 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240228 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240228 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 280507

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern
   Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast.

   ...Synopsis...
   A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley
   across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday
   morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east
   side of the trough, with meridional orientation. 

   At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves
   from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A
   fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from
   KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. 

   Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will
   extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS
   southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt
   southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal
   passage and drying. 

   ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest
   New England...
   Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold
   front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is
   expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a
   somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings
   ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective
   potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the
   strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down
   of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low
   probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts.

   ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: February 28, 2024
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