SPC AC 020520

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1220 AM CDT Mon Aug 02 2021

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
   OREGON...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few storms with downburst winds will be possible over central
   Oregon this afternoon and early evening.

   ...Oregon...

   With near-surface dewpoints mostly in the 40s F, the atmosphere will
   become marginally unstable later this afternoon (400-800 J/kg
   MLCAPE) supported by strong surface heating in presence of steep
   (7.5-8 C/km) mid-level lapse rates. A shortwave trough currently
   near the northern CA coast will continue into this region today, and
   widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop as the
   boundary layer destabilizes during the afternoon. Storms will be
   high-based with updrafts rooted near 650 mb. Steep lapse rates and
   inverted-v profiles in the sub-cloud layer will support a threat of
   isolated downburst winds through early evening. 

   ...Rockies through the Gulf Coast states...

   Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will once again develop
   from the Rockies through the Gulf Coast states within environments
   characterized by marginal to moderate instability and weak vertical
   shear. While some of these storms will become capable of producing a
   few strong wind gusts, any severe events are expected to remain too
   sparse for a categorical risk area.

   ..Dial/Moore.. 08/02/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z