SPC AC 150454

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1154 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

   ...Four Corners States...
   Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon,
   downstream of a weak mid-level low drifting southeast from the Lower
   CO Valley across AZ. Weak deep-layer shear will limit severe-storm
   potential. 

   ...Southern Great Lakes to the central Appalachians...
   A broad and amplified mid-level trough will pivot southward across
   the East. A swath of cold 500-mb temperatures around -30 C will
   accompany this trough, supporting steep 700-500 mb lapse rates. With
   a shallow tropopause and meager surface-based buoyancy, low-topped
   showers will abound. The deepest of these should produce sporadic
   lightning flashes, mainly this afternoon. Weak lower-level winds
   will preclude organized cells.

   ...FL to far southeast LA...
   Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are most probable across the
   southern tip of the peninsula where low-level moisture will be
   sufficient for deep convection. Modest deep-layer shear and weak
   mid-level lapse rates should mitigate a severe risk.

   Farther north, pockets of low-level convergence along a
   quasi-stationary front over the northeast Gulf and across the north
   FL Peninsula may be sufficient for around a 10-percent thunderstorm
   probability during the late afternoon. This front will accelerate
   south tonight, but any convection along it should remain offshore.

   ..Grams/Bentley.. 10/15/2024

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