SPC AC 260534

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1134 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2022

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
   CENTRAL GULF COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday from far
   southeast Texas to parts of the the central Gulf Coast states.
   Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado should be the main threats.

   ...Gulf Coast...

   Pronounced upper low has shifted into the Big Bend region of west TX
   late this evening. This feature is forecast to advance into
   north-central TX by early afternoon before ejecting into southern IL
   by the end of the period. Intense 12hr mid-level height falls (270m)
   will spread downstream ahead of this feature, but only glance the
   Gulf Coast with more modest 30-60m falls. In response to this
   dynamic, ejecting system, surface low should be drawn north across
   east TX then into MO during the evening. This will allow a modified
   Gulf air mass to advance a bit inland with mid 60s to near 70F
   surface dew points expected within 30-50mi of the central Gulf
   Coast. While surface heating will be limited across this region,
   forecast soundings suggest moisture advection will contribute to
   weak surface-based buoyancy where dew point values can approach
   68-70F.

   Latest model guidance suggests the primary cold front will approach
   the Sabine River Valley by sunrise, then surge into the lower MS
   Valley by 27/00z, and the western FL Panhandle by daybreak Sunday.
   LLJ is forecast to intensify across east TX early in the period and
   this will aid a considerable amount of convection in association
   with the front. Strongest convection should be noted south of the LA
   Coast at this time, though robust updrafts may ultimately evolve
   within a strongly sheared environment as upper 60s surface dew
   points advance inland. A few supercells will likely evolve within
   this moistening environment and there appears to be at least a
   marginal risk for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado if favorable
   thermodynamic conditions materialize inland. Low severe
   probabilities will be maintained at this time due to the limited
   buoyancy and stronger dynamics/forcing lifting well north of the
   coast.

   ..Darrow/Thompson.. 11/26/2022

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