SPC AC 070553

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1253 AM CDT Sun Aug 07 2022

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE UPPER MIDWEST...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND ARIZONA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms capable of marginally severe winds are possible across
   parts of Upper Midwest, central High Plains and Arizona this
   afternoon and evening.

   ...Upper Midwest...
   A shortwave trough will move across the northern High Plains today
   as west-southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the Upper
   Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will move southeastward across
   eastern Nebraska and Iowa. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints
   should be mostly in the 70s F, which will contribute to a pocket of
   moderate instability by afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to reach the
   2000 to 3000 J/kg range across parts of Iowa, where scattered
   thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon. Although
   deep-layer shear will be on the weak side, low-level lapse rates
   will become steep in the mid to late afternoon. This may be enough
   for a marginal wind-damage threat with multicells that form within
   the stronger instability.

   ...Central High Plains...
   An anticyclone at mid-levels will be in place today from the Four
   Corners eastward into the central Plains. Beneath this feature, an
   axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop from central
   Colorado extending eastward into western Kansas. As surface
   temperature warm, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
   Front Range and across the Palmer Divide. Forecast soundings along
   the Palmer Divide at 00Z have MLCAPE peaking near 2500 J/kg. 0-6 km
   shear is forecast to be about 30 knots with 0-3 km lapse rates
   exceeding 7.5 C/km. This environment should be sufficient for a
   marginal wind-damage threat late this afternoon and early this
   evening.

   ...Arizona...
   A moist airmass will be in place across much of southern and central
   Arizona today. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability is
   forecast by afternoon across much of this airmass. Isolated to
   scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon along the
   Mogollon Rim and southward into central and southern Arizona. Steep
   low-level lapse rates evident on forecast soundings, are forecast to
   exceed 7.5 C/km, which should be enough for a marginal wind-damage
   threat near and after peak heating.

   ..Broyles/Karstens.. 08/07/2022

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