SPC AC 270544

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1244 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A risk for organized severe thunderstorms is not expected today.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will traverse the Northeast as a surface cold
   front, extending from New England to central Texas, drifts southward
   through the day. Meanwhile, upper ridging will prevail across the
   western half of the CONUS while a second mid-level trough impinges
   on the West Coast. Isolated to potentially scattered pulse cellular
   thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front in a
   weak shear environment as insolation destabilizes the boundary
   layer. A strong/damaging gust or two may accompany the stronger
   downdrafts, but the severe coverage should be too sparse to warrant
   any severe highlights this outlook.

   Meanwhile, mid-level moisture will continue to linger across much of
   the interior west into the northern Plains in association with the
   upper ridge. By afternoon peak heating, high-based thunderstorms are
   expected to develop. A stronger downdraft core may support a
   damaging wind gust or two, but the lack of stronger flow aloft/shear
   in the Southwest suggests that the overall severe threat should
   remain limited. Across central South Dakota, some of the latest
   guidance depicts inverted-v soundings typical for dry thunderstorms.
   7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates atop a well-mixed boundary layer in
   the presence of modest speed/directional shear could also support a
   sparse damaging gust threat.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/27/2022

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