SPC AC 230524

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1124 PM CST Sat Jan 22 2022

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible across southeast Arizona
   and southwest New Mexico.

   ...Southwestern US...

   00z model guidance continues to suggest the upper low currently
   located along the AZ/Sonora border will shift east later today as
   500mb speed max rotates through the base of the low toward the Big
   Bend region of west TX by the end of the period. Steep lapse rates
   and cold temperatures north of the mid-level jet will contribute to
   weak buoyancy beneath the upper low. This should be more than
   adequate for weak convection aided by diurnal heating. Forecast
   sounding for DUG later this afternoon suggests MUCAPE in excess of
   200 J/kg which would permit cloud tops well above levels necessary
   for lightning discharge. For these reasons will continue with low
   thunderstorm probabilities for portions of southern AZ and NM.

   ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/23/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z