SPC AC 070544

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHWEST...NORTHERN PLAINS...LOWER TO
   MID MISSOURI VALLEY...CAROLINAS...AND FLORIDA....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Marginally severe thunderstorms, associated with strong winds and
   hail, will be possible today across parts of the southern High
   Plains, Northwest, northern Plains, lower to mid Missouri Valley,
   Carolinas, and Florida.

   ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard...
   A cyclonic flow pattern will be in place today across much of the
   eastern U.S., with an upper-level low located in northern New
   England. At the surface, a trough will deepen along the Atlantic
   Seaboard as a cold front advances southward through the southern
   Appalachians. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the
   mid to upper 60s F across much of the Southeast into the eastern
   Carolinas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to
   develop this afternoon along the surface trough. Additional storms
   may form near sea-breeze boundaries in the coastal Carolinas, and
   along the east coast of Florida. Steep low-level lapse rates near
   peak heating may be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat with
   the stronger multicells.

   ...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Northern Plains...
   A quasi-stationary front will be located from the eastern Dakotas
   south-southeastward into the lower Missouri Valley today. Along and
   to the east of the boundary, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid
   60s F will contribute to a somewhat narrow corridor of moderate
   instability by afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm
   development is expected during the mid to late afternoon as
   instability and low-level convergence become maximized near the
   front. Marginally severe winds and hail will be possible, especially
   in areas were low-level lapse rates become the steepest.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   An upper-level ridge will remain in place today across the southern
   High Plains. Beneath the ridge, warm surface temperatures and steep
   lapse rates will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon.
   Thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain of eastern
   New Mexico and far West Texas, with the storms moving slowly into
   the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. The
   instability, along with steep lapse rates, will likely support a
   threat for strong winds and hail.

   ...Northwest...
   An upper-level low will move slowly northeastward into the Sierra
   Nevada of eastern California today. To the north and east of the
   low, mid-level flow will be from the south and southeast across much
   of the Intermountain West. Scattered thunderstorms will likely
   develop this afternoon in the higher terrain, and in the lower
   elevations where temperatures sufficiently warm. Steep low to
   mid-level lapse rates will likely support a marginal wind-damage and
   hail threat.

   ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 06/07/2023

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