SPC AC 200446

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1146 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the
   Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A strong upper trough will move rapidly across the eastern states
   today, with primary midlevel speed max sweeping across the Gulf
   Coast states and nosing into the Carolinas during the afternoon.
   Cooling aloft with this system will be substantial as a band of
   strong meridional flow approaches the East Coast late in the day.

   At the surface, a trough will deepen slightly ahead of a cold front
   with strongest afternoon push from GA into the Carolinas where 850
   mb winds will exceed 40 kt out of the west/southwest.

   While an elongated north-south band of precipitation is likely to
   accompany the cold front, instability is forecast to be quite weak.
   MUCAPE of 100-200 J/kg may develop near the front, perhaps
   effectively elevated as the front undercuts meager moisture return
   and lapse rates steepen aloft. A plume of steeper low-level lapse
   rates will accompany the dry slot from GA into the Carolinas, but
   forecast soundings indicate little severe potential due to limited
   moisture.  As such, severe storms are not forecast, but locally
   gusty winds are expected with the band of showers and due to
   vertical mixing considerations.

   ..Jewell/Moore.. 03/20/2025

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