SPC AC 060531

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1231 AM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...SOUTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH
   FLORIDA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, with hail and strong winds,
   are expected today over parts of the Intermountain West, southern
   Rockies and South Carolina. A few marginally severe gusts will also
   be possible in south Florida.

   ...Intermountain West...
   An upper-level low will move slowly inland across California today.
   Mid-level flow ahead of the system will be southeasterly across much
   of the Intermountain West. At the surface, an east-to-west surface
   trough will be in place from northern California to northern Utah. A
   pocket of moderate instability may develop by afternoon, along and
   to the north of the surface trough. Although deep-layer shear is
   forecast to be at or below 30 knots in most areas, low to mid-level
   lapse rates will be steep, which should support a hail and marginal
   wind-damage threat with the stronger multicells.

   ...Southern Rockies...
   An upper-level ridge will be in place across the southern Rockies
   today. Beneath the ridge, moderate instability is expected to
   develop by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day,
   scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in and along the edges
   of the higher terrain. Although deep-layer shear will be relatively
   weak, steep low to mid-level lapse rates could be sufficient for
   strong wind gusts and hail.

   ...South Carolina...
   A broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place today across much of
   the eastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance
   southeastward into the Carolinas. Isolated to scattered
   thunderstorms are expected to develop along and near the boundary as
   surface temperatures warm during the day. Although deep-layer shear
   will be relatively weak, low-level lapse rates will become steep
   during the afternoon, which could support a marginal wind-damage
   threat.

   ...South Florida...
   At mid-levels, flow will be from the west-southwest across south
   Florida today. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place,
   where dewpoints will be mostly in the lower to mid 70s F. Isolated
   thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon along sea
   breeze boundaries. These storms could move slowly inland and pose a
   threat for strong gusts, mainly near and around peak heating.

   ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 06/06/2023

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