SPC AC 040433
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
today through tonight.
...Discussion...
Seasonably high moisture content will generally remain confined to
where the low-level easterlies prevail, across the southwestern
Atlantic through the Gulf Basin during this period. The boundary
layer does remain relatively moist across much of the southeastern
U.S., but this region, and most areas east of the Mississippi
Valley, are forecast to remain under the influence of surface high
pressure. Still, weak to modest destabilization and orographic
forcing with daytime heating may contribute to some thunderstorm
development today across parts of the upper Tennessee Valley and
Cumberland Plateau into the Blue Ridge. Otherwise, higher
thunderstorm probabilities likely will remain focused across
southern portions of the Florida Peninsula and immediate
northwestern through north central Gulf coastal areas. An area of
thunderstorm development, largely aided by ascent associated with
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may be ongoing at 12Z this
morning across parts of southeastern Iowa and adjacent northeastern
Missouri/west central Illinois. But this appears likely to
gradually diminish while slowly spreading southeastward across west
central/central Illinois through mid to late morning.
The stronger westerlies remain confined to the northern
mid-latitudes, with one rather vigorous embedded short wave trough
forecast to rapidly accelerate inland of the Pacific Northwest coast
and across the northern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Models indicate
that this will be accompanied by cyclogenesis to the lee of the
Canadian Rockies, and strong pre- and post-frontal
lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields across the northern U.S. Rockies
into Great Plains. Despite rather dry initial conditions, strong
mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to at least weak
high-based convection, near or above/to the cool side of the surging
cold front. While it is possible that this could coincide with
strong/gusty surface conditions, forecast soundings suggest minimal
potential for these gusts to be related to moist convective
processes, and it still appears unlikely that this convection will
be accompanied by much, if any, lightning.
..Kerr/Squitieri.. 10/04/2024
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