Oct 3, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Oct 3 05:06:42 UTC 2022 (20221003 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20221003 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20221003 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20221003 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20221003 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20221003 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 030506

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1206 AM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast for today across the
   contiguous United States.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will gradually progress eastward across the
   northern Rockies and overspread the northern Plains as an upper low
   continues to meander over the Mid Atlantic today. Building surface
   high pressure and associated large-scale subsidence should limit
   thunderstorm potential across much of the central Plains and
   Mississippi Valley eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. Moisture
   advection ahead of the northern Rockies upper trough should
   encourage some thunderstorm development from late morning into the
   evening hours across the northern Plains southwestward into the
   central Rockies and desert Southwest. Buoyancy appears meager across
   the central U.S., with mid-level flow and associated shear expected
   to gradually weaken with the progression of the upper trough. While
   a couple of strong storms with sub-severe wind gusts and hail are
   possible from the northern Plains to the Southwest, any severe
   threat that manages to materialize should be very isolated at best,
   with no severe probabilities introduced this outlook.

   ..Squitieri/Kerr.. 10/03/2022

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z