Dec 11, 2019 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Dec 11 05:16:52 UTC 2019 (20191211 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20191211 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20191211 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20191211 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20191211 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20191211 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 110516

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1116 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large-scale mid-level trough will move off of the Atlantic
   Seaboard today, with high pressure ushering in behind a cold front
   across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Farther west, a
   mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the Rockies into the Plains
   states by the end of the period, with a more potent mid-level wave
   and associated surface trough approaching the Pacific Northwest.
    
   ...Florida Peninsula...
   The trailing portion of a cold front will gradually move
   southeastward across the Florida Peninsula, where at least modest
   instability (up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in spots) will be in place.
   Convergence along the cold front, coupled with diurnal heating, will
   encourage at least isolated thunderstorm development through the
   late morning and afternoon hours. 

   ...Louisiana/Mississippi Coastline and adjacent waters...
   Despite the passage of the surface front, 850 mb frontogenesis will
   support banded-precipitation, perhaps with a few convective elements
   along and just offshore the Louisiana/Mississippi Coastlines. Though
   instability is quite meager, enough elevated MUCAPE in the -20 to
   -30C layer may support a couple lightning strikes early in the
   period.

   ...Portions of the Washington Coastline...
   The approach of the aforementioned mid-level wave later in the
   period will result in steepening mid-level lapse rates (7.5+ C/km)
   across portions of the Washington Coastline and adjacent waters.
   Here, deep-layer ascent will also increase with the approach of a
   surface trough by 00Z. Multiple guidance members hint at some
   instability across the area, with the 03Z RAP being the most
   aggressive member (depicting up to 400 J/kg MUCAPE). In addition,
   adequate deep-layer and low-level shear may support an isolated gust
   or two.

   ..Squitieri.. 12/11/2019

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z