SPC AC 121234

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0734 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

   Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely today and tonight.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   Within broad upper troughing over central/eastern Canada, an
   embedded mid-level perturbation will gradually amplify as it moves
   southeastward over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the
   period. At the surface, a weak low will gradually develop eastward
   across the Midwest and eventually reach the northwest OH vicinity by
   late tonight. An associated cold front will continue moving
   southward across the central Plains and upper/mid MS Valley, while a
   warm front extending eastward from the surface low remains across
   northern IL/IN/OH through this evening.

   Limited low-level moisture and weak large-scale forcing across the
   warm sector suggest that surface-based thunderstorm potential should
   remain low today across the Great Lakes/OH Valley region. However,
   most guidance does show some elevated convection developing by late
   afternoon/early evening across southern Lower MI and vicinity.
   00/06Z NAM runs show much more instability present compared to most
   other guidance, with a general consensus that around 500 J/kg of
   MUCAPE may exist when convection initiates.

   Even with strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer, the weak
   instability forecast should tend to limit the threat for severe hail
   with any thunderstorms that can form over Lower MI and subsequently
   spread east-southeastward across northern IN/OH this evening and
   overnight. Still, small hail may occur with the more robust cores.
   Occasional gusty winds may also be able to reach the surface given
   the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow, presence of a
   somewhat dry sub-cloud layer/weak DCAPE, and relatively shallow
   near-surface stable layer.

   ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/12/2024

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