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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jun 14, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 14 12:32:58 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240614 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240614 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 141232

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0732 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

   Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS AND NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph
   will be possible from mid-afternoon through evening along the Front
   Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with
   sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible
   across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening.

   ...Central Plains including Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas...
   A mid/upper-level low over the Lower Colorado River Valley early
   this morning will continue northeastward, reaching the
   central/southern High Plains by evening. An outflow-reinforced front
   is expected to slowly shift north-northeastward across the central
   High Plains through the day, with low-level southeasterly flow
   maintaining a relatively moisture-rich airmass across the central
   High Plains toward the Front Range.

   Thinking continues to be that at least scattered thunderstorm
   development is expected by mid/late afternoon across parts of
   Colorado/New Mexico including the Front Range and Raton Mesa
   vicinity, influenced by differential heating and the approaching
   shortwave trough. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable
   deep-layer shear (30-40 kt) will support large hail potential with
   initial discrete storm development, along with some risk for a brief
   tornado or two.

   A tendency toward more of a clustered mode is expected with time,
   as storm coverage increases. As this occurs, isolated to widely
   scattered wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible, especially in
   areas where stronger pre-storm heating/mixing occurs. A loosely
   organized MCS could eventually evolve near/north of the surface
   boundary, which would result in some severe-wind potential spreading
   eastward across Nebraska and western/northern Kansas tonight.

   ...Northern High Plains/northern Rockies...
   Moderate diurnal destabilization will be possible near/east of a
   weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest
   instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies.
   Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late
   afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to
   support a few stronger storms capable of producing isolated hail and
   strong-to-severe wind gusts.

   ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England...
   A mid/upper-level trough will move across the Mid-Atlantic and New
   England later today into tonight. Weak to moderate buoyancy will
   develop along/ahead of a cold front, with scattered thunderstorm
   development expected from Pennsylvania into New England, and more
   isolated development possible farther south into parts of the
   central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Moderate deep-layer shear
   will support some storm organization, and few stronger clusters
   and/or marginal supercells will be possible, with an attendant
   threat of locally damaging winds and hail.

   ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/14/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: June 14, 2024
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