SPC AC 201243

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0743 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

   Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the
   Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected.

   ...Eastern NC/southeast VA this afternoon...
   A midlevel trough and an associated surface cold front will progress
   eastward from the Appalachians to the Atlantic coast by late this
   evening/early tonight.  Only a narrow corridor of low-level
   moistening is expected ahead of the front, as a result of only
   partial air mass modification and poor trajectories from the Gulf
   and western Atlantic.  There could be sufficient heating and
   moistening for very weak buoyancy (100-200 J/kg MLCAPE) and
   convection deep enough to produce isolated lightning flashes in a
   band along the front this afternoon, especially across eastern NC. 
   While there is a low chance for isolated wind damage, the very weak
   buoyancy does not support the addition of severe wind probabilities.

   ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/20/2025

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