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    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 13, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 13 12:30:10 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240413 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240413 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 131230

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0730 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

   Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   OREGON...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms with isolated severe hail and strong wind gusts will
   be possible this afternoon and early evening across parts of Oregon.

   ...Oregon...
   An upper low off the coast of northern CA this morning will move
   slowly east-southeastward today towards central CA. South-
   southeasterly low/mid-level flow on the northeast side of this
   cyclone will help advect modest mid-level moisture and steep lapse
   rates over OR through this afternoon. With daytime heating, around
   500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop. Thunderstorms that initially
   form over the higher terrain of central OR around 20-22Z should have
   some organization, with 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear supporting a
   mix of multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two. Isolated
   severe hail may occur with the more discrete convection. Occasional
   strong/gusty winds also appear possible given steep low-level lapse
   rates and a well-mixed boundary layer (inverted-v type soundings).
   These thunderstorms should spread north-northwestward through the
   early evening before gradually weakening with the loss of daytime
   heating.

   ...Great Lakes...
   Isolated thunderstorms may develop this evening and overnight across
   the Great Lakes region as a weak mid-level shortwave impulse
   embedded with a northwest flow regime moves southeastward. This
   activity will likely remain elevated on the northeast periphery of
   capping associated with an EML extending across much of the Plains
   and Upper Midwest. Weak MUCAPE is generally expected where
   convection should occur, which should keep the overall severe threat
   low. Still, some small hail may occur given the presence of steep
   mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear in the
   cloud-bearing layer.

   ..Gleason/Grams.. 04/13/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: April 13, 2024
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