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    Day 2 Outlook >
Sep 28, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 28 12:53:55 UTC 2022 (Print Version | 20220928 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220928 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 281253

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0753 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

   Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Tornadoes are expected across the central and southern Florida
   Peninsula today in association with Hurricane Ian.

   ...Florida...
   Major Hurricane Ian will continue to move slowly northeastward and
   approach the southwest/west-central coast of Florida today.
   Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest track,
   intensity, and forecast details.

   A north-northeastward translation of Ian-related eastern-peripheral
   winds will continue to occur across the southern/central Peninsula,
   with appreciably elongated hodographs and robust SRH coincident with
   outer bands of convection across/near the Peninsula. Even with a
   thick overcast per early day visible satellite imagery, diurnal
   heating influences will boost SB/MLCAPE within a moisture-rich
   environment, with a related uptick in updraft intensity expected
   through late morning into afternoon.

   The east-central Florida Peninsula including the Space Coast
   vicinity would appear to have the longest duration of
   tornado-favorable ingredients particularly this afternoon through
   evening. This will be as strengthening low-level winds coincide with
   the modifying remnant frontal zone across the region to result in a
   long duration of regionally maximized low-level SRH. While not
   overly common in tropical cyclone-related situations, a strong
   (EF2+) tornado could occur, particularly across the east-central
   Florida Peninsula.

   ..Guyer/Gleason.. 09/28/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: September 28, 2022
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