Click-to-scroll-up Image
Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 8, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 8 12:44:06 UTC 2025 (Print Version | 20250208 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20250208 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 081244

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0644 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025

   Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across
   parts of the Ohio Valley today.

   ...Ohio Valley...
   A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently extends from western ND
   southwestward through western/central WY. This shortwave is expected
   to progress quickly eastward throughout the day, moving across the
   Great Lakes and reaching the Northeast by early tomorrow. In
   response, the surface low currently over central OK is forecast to
   rapidly translate northeastward through the Mid MS and OH Valleys,
   moving along the leading edge of low-level moisture advection.
   Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector
   preceding this low will help moisten the low- to mid-levels enough
   to support limited buoyancy, particularly as mid-level temperatures
   cool. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be
   augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and more mesoscale
   lift near the surface low. The resulting combination of lift and
   buoyancy should support deeper convective structures capable of
   lightning production. Most likely time frame for these deeper storms
   is between 21Z to 04Z, with the highest coverage anticipated over
   the Middle and Upper OH Valley. 

   Strengthening mid-level flow is also expected, with a belt of 100+
   kt 500-mb winds spreading across the region after 21Z. This could
   result in rotation and potentially some hail production within any
   deeper, more persistent updrafts. However, the scant buoyancy is
   expected to limit the number and duration of any deeper updrafts,
   with the overall severe potential remaining low as a result.

   ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/08/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: February 08, 2025
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities