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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jun 13, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jun 13 12:15:39 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240613 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240613 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 131215

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0715 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

   Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN IOWA...AND
   NORTHERN ILLINOIS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are most likely across southern Iowa into
   northern portions of Missouri and Illinois during the late afternoon
   to early evening. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a
   couple tornadoes are possible.

   ...Great Lakes...
   Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough
   over the Dakotas, with an associated cluster of showers and
   thunderstorms over eastern SD.  This feature will track eastward
   through the day, with large scale forcing for ascent overspreading
   parts of southern WI/northern IL and Lower MI by early afternoon. 
   Strong daytime heating in this area will likely result in
   intensification of thunderstorms along an approaching cold front, in
   an environment of steep low and mid level lapse rates and moderate
   CAPE.  Activity will spread across Lake Michigan and southern Lower
   MI through early evening with a risk of hail and damaging winds.

   ...Middle MS Valley...
   The aforementioned surface cold front will extend southwestward
   across southern IA and into northeast KS by mid afternoon.  Strong
   daytime heating will yield afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s
   to mid 90s ahead of the front, along with a corridor of dewpoints in
   the mid-upper 60s.  Forecast soundings in this zone show large
   MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg along with steep low and mid level
   lapse rates.  Convective initiation along the front may be delayed
   until late afternoon or early evening due to warm temperatures in
   the 800-700mb layer, but eventually discrete supercells are expected
   to form along the front.  Storms will track east-southeastward
   across the ENH risk area posing a risk of very large hail, damaging
   winds, and perhaps a tornado or two.  Upscale organization into one
   or more bowing structures is also expected this evening with an
   increased risk of damaging winds.

   ...Western KS to TX Panhandle...
   A hot and deeply mixed boundary layer will develop this afternoon
   from the northeast TX Panhandle into western KS, with temperatures
   over 100F.  Most CAM solutions suggest scattered coverage of
   high-based thunderstorms in this region.  Forecast soundings show
   inverted-v profiles, but also sufficient winds aloft to pose a risk
   of locally damaging wind gusts for a few hours during the evening.

   ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/13/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: June 13, 2024
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