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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jun 27, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 27 12:24:49 UTC 2022 (Print Version | 20220627 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220627 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 271224

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0724 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022

   Valid 271300Z - 281200Z


   The threat for severe thunderstorms will remain quite low through

   ...New England to the Carolinas today...
   A midlevel shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will move eastward
   over New England through tonight, along with an associated surface
   cold front.  Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s across New
   England and low 70s across the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic will precede
   the cold front today, but clouds will slow surface heating and
   midlevel lapse rates will be poor, which will limit buoyancy and
   downdraft potential.  Vertical shear will also remain rather modest
   in the warm sector across New England and will be very weak farther
   south toward the Carolinas, which suggests that the threat for
   severe storms appears too low for any outlook areas.

   ...South TX this afternoon...
   The trailing cold front will continue to sag southward to near the
   Gulf Coast, aided on the mesoscale by outflow with convection. 
   Gusty outflow winds will be possible from the middle TX coastal
   plain into south central TX with storms along the front this
   afternoon, in conjunction with steep low-level lapse rates and
   moderate buoyancy.  However, storms will tend to remain pulse-like
   in nature and the threat for severe/damaging outflow winds appears
   too low to add 5% wind probabilities.

   ...Eastern SD into MN through tonight...
   Low-level moisture is limited in the wake of the Great Lakes
   midlevel trough and associated cold frontal passage.  An upstream
   shortwave trough over SK/MB will progress southeastward toward
   northeast ND/northern MN overnight, and will be accompanied by a
   reinforcing cold front.  Prior to the next frontal passage, some
   local moistening will occur through evapotranspiration, but this
   moisture will tend to get redistributed upward through mixing this
   afternoon.  This will leave rather modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of
   500-1000 J/kg), driven mainly by surface heating and cool midlevel
   temperatures (near -17 C at 500 mb).  The threat for thunderstorm
   development during the day will be limited by the poor moisture and
   (at best) weak forcing for ascent.  Ascent will increase some early
   tonight with the approach of the SK/MB shortwave trough/cold front,
   and with warm advection on the nose of a weak low-level jet from
   eastern SD into southwestern MN.  With the majority of the
   convection likely to be elevated tonight in a weakly buoyant regime,
   the threat for severe storms appears too low for any wind/hail
   probability areas.

   ..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/27/2022



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