SPC AC 141248

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0648 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

   Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A large-scale upper trough over the western CONUS will further
   amplify today as it moves over the Southwest and southern/central
   Rockies. In association with this feature and related cold mid-level
   temperatures, isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of
   the southern Great Basin and Four Corners vicinity. But, overall
   coverage/intensity of this convection should be limited by meager
   low-level moisture.

   As a surface low eventually consolidates from the central into
   southern High Plains through tonight, low-level moisture will
   continue to stream northward across parts of TX and the lower MS
   Valley. Even though mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain
   modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE should eventually develop
   over these areas late this evening into the overnight hours.
   Large-scale ascent with the upper trough should generally remain to
   the west of this developing warm sector. But, strong low-level warm
   advection and related lift should encourage showers and
   thunderstorms to develop, especially after 06Z across portions of
   the Ozarks/Mid-South. Some of these elevated thunderstorms could
   produce hail, but this should generally remain sub-severe given the
   marginal thermodynamic environment forecast.

   ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/14/2025

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