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    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 15, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 15 12:56:54 UTC 2025 (Print Version | 20250215 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20250215 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 151256

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0656 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

   Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of far east Texas into
   much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Several
   tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts should be
   the primary threats. A few strong tornadoes are also possible.
   Intense thunderstorms should develop by late this afternoon and
   continue through the overnight hours.

   ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast...
   Strong low-level warm advection has encouraged elevated
   thunderstorms early this morning from parts of AR into the Mid-South
   and TN Valley. This activity should remain sub-severe, with poor
   mid-level lapse rates hindering updraft strength and hail potential.
   A pronounced upper trough over the Southwest this morning will eject
   eastward across the southern/central Plains today, eventually
   reaching the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast late tonight. A broad area
   of surface low pressure is forecast to consolidate through the day,
   with the primary surface low expected to deepen as it develops
   east-northeastward across the Mid-South and lower OH Valley this
   evening. An attendant cold front will eventually move
   east-southeastward over the lower MS Valley and much of the
   Southeast this evening and overnight.

   Ahead of the approaching upper trough and deepening surface low,
   low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the
   lower MS Valley. While lapse rates aloft should remain fairly
   modest, filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening will aid
   in the development of around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid to late
   afternoon. Current expectations are for robust, surface-based
   thunderstorms to develop by 20-22Z along or just ahead of the cold
   front from far east TX towards the Mid-South. While this activity
   may initially be supercellular, nearly all guidance suggests a quick
   transition to a more linear mode by early evening. Even so, very
   strong 0-3 km shear, aided by a 45-55+ kt low-level jet, will easily
   aid updraft rotation and organized severe thunderstorms.

   Ample low-level shear will support a threat for several
   line-embedded tornadoes from late this afternoon through early
   Sunday morning. The potential for supercells ahead of the line
   remains unclear. But, any supercells embedded within the line could
   produce strong tornadoes given the enhanced low-level shear.
   Otherwise, scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely
   occur with the line of convection as it spreads eastward across the
   Mid-South, TN Valley, and central Gulf Coast states this evening and
   overnight. Isolated significant severe gusts appear possible where
   the best overlap of strong low/mid-level flow and adequate buoyancy
   is forecast, mainly across parts of the ArkLaMiss into western TN.
   Some adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risk
   areas to account for latest guidance trends, including across parts
   of AL/GA where a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds will likely
   continue through the end of the period as the line advances eastward
   in a weak but sufficiently unstable airmass.

   ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/15/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: February 15, 2025
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