SPC AC 091257

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0657 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024

   Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into
   much of the Southeast States today and tonight. The potential for
   severe thunderstorms currently appears low.

   ...Southeast States...
   Neutral height tendencies will tend to prevail over the region as a
   low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Lower Ohio Valley and
   Tennessee Valley races east-northward toward the Mid-Atlantic
   seaboard. Convergence will tend to remain weak diurnally near a
   northward-shifting warm front across the Tennessee Valley, until
   modest surface cyclogenesis occurs tonight across the ArkLaMiss and
   Mid-South, coincident with a stronger secondary cold front
   accelerating southeastward across the ArkLaMiss/East Texas.
   Semi-steady warm/moist advection will persist in/near the warm
   sector spanning parts of Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama into
   eventually nearby portions of Georgia and Tennessee. 

   The persistent warm advection regime over the middle Gulf Coast will
   maintain isolated thunderstorm chances through the day. Despite
   40-50 knot mid-level flow, weak low to mid-level lapse rates will
   modulate updraft intensities and tend to limit the likelihood of
   overly organized convection for much of the day. 

   The potential for thunderstorms should regionally increase tonight
   as the aforementioned upstream cold front/modestly deepening surface
   low interact with higher theta-e air. Even with favorable low-level
   moistening/destabilization trends, the scenario may not provide
   sufficient destabilization for robust deep convection tonight. As
   mentioned in the prior outlook discussion, most convection-allowing
   guidance remains rather subdued as far as severe attributes, with
   the typically aggressive FV3 being a modest exception.

   Subsequent outlooks will closely reevaluate this scenario and the
   potential need for low wind/tornado probabilities, as more favorable
   destabilization trends could prompt more of a severe risk given the
   severe-conducive deep-layer/low-level shear.

   ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/09/2024

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