SPC AC 261222

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0622 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

   Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   No thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the continental
   United States today or tonight.

   ...Synopsis/Discussion...
   In mid/upper levels, gently cyclonic to zonal flow will exist across
   the southern tier of the CONUS, south of a strongly positively
   tilted mean trough from the Great Lakes to northwestern MX.  A
   surface cold front was drawn at 11Z from Atlantic waters offshore of
   the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, across southern FL, to the
   southeastern Gulf.  As this front proceeds across the remainder of
   southeastern FL through the next few hours, some diurnal/diabatic
   destabilization in the moist boundary layer to its east may boost
   MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg.  However, weakness of both frontal lift
   and midlevel lapse rates, in tandem with strong drying/entrainment
   likely in midlevels, will mitigate updraft strength more than
   parcel-theory CAPE alone may indicate.  Lightning potential, while
   non-zero, appears too isolated and conditional for a 10%
   general-thunder area.

   ..Edwards.. 01/26/2023

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z