Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 051300
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Sun Feb 05 2023
Valid 051300Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...Florida/Southeast States...
A low-amplitude trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley will reach
the coastal Southeast this evening. Across Florida, sufficient
moisture and supportive wind profiles could allow for a few
weak/transient supercells, mainly near east/southeast coastal areas
in vicinity of the northward-shifting boundary/moist sector.
However, poor mid-level lapse rates and a residual flow weakness
generally between 1-3 km AGL suggests that organized severe
potential should remain low. Late tonight, a few strong storms could
graze the North Carolina coast; however, appreciable moistening and
destabilization is not currently expected inland.
...West...
Very cold mid-level temperatures (<-30C at 500mb) will overspread
northern California into Nevada later today as a pronounced upper
trough advances inland. The steepest mid-level lapse rates will be
observed north of the jet as it digs toward the lower Colorado River
Valley during the latter half of the period. While a few flashes of
lightning may be noted with convection along the northern California
coast, a greater risk for isolated thunderstorms will be in upslope
regions of the Sierra Nevada during the afternoon.
..Guyer/Leitman.. 02/05/2023
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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