Jun 16, 2019 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jun 16 12:53:36 UTC 2019 (20190616 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190616 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190616 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 35,102 1,802,287 Waco, TX...Killeen, TX...Round Rock, TX...San Angelo, TX...Temple, TX...
SLIGHT 187,269 42,454,797 Houston, TX...Philadelphia, PA...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Columbus, OH...
MARGINAL 495,140 60,942,765 New York, NY...Indianapolis, IN...Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Nashville, TN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20190616 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 45,738 3,859,158 Austin, TX...Waco, TX...Abilene, TX...Killeen, TX...Round Rock, TX...
2 % 164,924 36,439,776 Houston, TX...Philadelphia, PA...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20190616 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 34,935 1,796,054 Waco, TX...Killeen, TX...San Angelo, TX...Temple, TX...Cedar Park, TX...
30 % 35,102 1,802,287 Waco, TX...Killeen, TX...Round Rock, TX...San Angelo, TX...Temple, TX...
15 % 179,948 42,075,046 Houston, TX...Philadelphia, PA...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Columbus, OH...
5 % 499,348 60,527,651 New York, NY...Indianapolis, IN...Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Nashville, TN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20190616 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 41,135 2,466,325 Fort Worth, TX...Waco, TX...Abilene, TX...Killeen, TX...San Angelo, TX...
15 % 82,796 11,975,342 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...
5 % 423,832 76,634,556 New York, NY...Houston, TX...Philadelphia, PA...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...
   SPC AC 161253

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0753 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

   Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TX...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OH VALLEY TO LOWER
   MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are most likely across parts of central Texas during
   the late afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes along with damage
   from both wind gusts and hail are possible.

   ...Central TX...
   Primary change is to increase both tornado and wind probabilities,
   yielding an upgrade to Enhanced Slight Risk.

   Gravity waves and convective outflow from a decaying MCS over
   northeast TX have reached roughly a Midland to San Angelo to
   Corsicana line as of 12Z. While some recovery north of this line
   will occur through the day, a strong to extremely unstable air mass
   will develop south of it. Beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates
   (as sampled by 12Z Midland and Del Rio soundings), a plume of MLCAPE
   above 3500 J/kg is expected by peak heating. Late afternoon storms
   should initiate along the dryline bulge near the Concho Valley and
   east-northeast along residual outflow boundaries. A belt of modest
   mid-level westerlies (20-30 kt at 500 mb) will be adequate for a few
   supercells and multicell clusters amid the large buoyancy reservoir.
   All severe hazards will be possible, including destructive hail and
   wind, as storms consolidate into a potentially massive MCS this
   evening with embedded bows and supercells. A severe threat may
   persist tonight southeast towards the Gulf Coast despite increasing
   MLCIN.

   ...Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the OH Valley...
   Primary change is to increase wind probabilities, yielding an
   expansion of Slight Risk west.

   A weak MCS is ongoing across northern KY to southern OH within a
   broad warm conveyor. Remnant MCV will likely cross the central
   Appalachians during the early afternoon, with increase in convective
   intensity possible through peak heating. Some uncertainty does exist
   in the Lower Mid-Atlantic region given that the MCV may outpace
   greater low-level moisture return. With weak mid-level lapse rates,
   this moisture increase will be critical to the degree of
   destabilization.

   Farther west in the OH Valley, adequate separation is anticipated
   between the ongoing MCS and the remnants of an MCS in MO/AR to yield
   much more substantial destabilization relative to the Mid-Atlantic
   region. Here, 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE should become common and will
   support intensifying convection that probably emanates from the
   remnants of the MO/AR activity. A belt of enhanced mid-level
   westerlies beneath weaker upper-level flow should foster several
   multicell clusters with scattered damaging winds as the primary
   hazard. 

   ...Central High Plains...
   No change to previous forecast.

   A deep mixed boundary-layer amid a combination of modest buoyancy
   and shear could foster a few storms capable of marginally severe
   hail and wind for a few hours during the late afternoon and early
   evening.

   ..Grams/Dial.. 06/16/2019

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z