Aug 14, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Aug 14 12:51:17 UTC 2022 (20220814 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220814 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220814 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 91,527 1,164,332 Fort Collins, CO...Greeley, CO...Rapid City, SD...Loveland, CO...Cheyenne, WY...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220814 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220814 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 91,249 1,164,066 Fort Collins, CO...Greeley, CO...Rapid City, SD...Loveland, CO...Cheyenne, WY...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220814 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 89,603 1,155,349 Fort Collins, CO...Greeley, CO...Rapid City, SD...Loveland, CO...Cheyenne, WY...
   SPC AC 141251

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0751 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

   Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTH DAKOTA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered convection capable of isolated/marginally severe
   thunderstorms will spread across portions of the central High Plains
   region, as well as parts of North Dakota, this afternoon and
   evening.

   ...Central High Plains...
   Upper ridge-peripheral disturbances and moderately strong winds
   aloft will influence the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies into
   the central High Plains into this afternoon and tonight. Scattered
   convection will likely initially develop and increase across
   Wyoming/northern Colorado this afternoon as boundary layer warming
   aids destabilization. Weak deep-layer flow/shear suggest updrafts
   will struggle to organize; however, sufficiently steep lapse rates
   and adequate instability favor gusty winds and perhaps marginally
   severe hail with the strongest cores as storms develop
   east-northeastward. Model guidance suggests a notable increase to
   the low-level jet this evening across the central High Plains
   including western portions of Kansas/Nebraska, which should support
   eastward storm propagation after sunset.

   ...Western/northern North Dakota and vicinity...
   Have introduced low severe probabilities for the potential of a few
   strong/severe storms across the region, primarily late this
   afternoon and evening. In the wake of some early day cloud cover and
   isolated thunderstorms, a moist/potentially unstable air mass will
   persist near/east of a surface low/front-related triple point.
   Subsequent development toward/after peak heating may remain fairly
   isolated. Regardless, the environment would seemingly support some
   semi-sustained multicells and possibly a few slow-moving supercells
   particularly across western/northern Dakota if/where storms do
   develop. Localized severe-wind gusts and hail may occur.

   ...South Texas...
   Low-level southeasterly winds may modestly strengthen today in
   proximity to a westward drifting area of low pressure centered
   across Deep South Texas. A few weak/transient supercells are
   conceivable near the coast, but even so, destabilization inland
   should be hindered by cloud cover/precipitation and any low-level
   shear/SRH increase should remain modest overall. Thus, current
   thinking is the tornado/wind gust-related severe potential will
   remain negligible across the region.

   ..Guyer/Broyles.. 08/14/2022

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z