Fort Collins, CO...Greeley, CO...Rapid City, SD...Loveland, CO...Cheyenne, WY...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
91,249
1,164,066
Fort Collins, CO...Greeley, CO...Rapid City, SD...Loveland, CO...Cheyenne, WY...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
89,603
1,155,349
Fort Collins, CO...Greeley, CO...Rapid City, SD...Loveland, CO...Cheyenne, WY...
SPC AC 141251
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered convection capable of isolated/marginally severe
thunderstorms will spread across portions of the central High Plains
region, as well as parts of North Dakota, this afternoon and
evening.
...Central High Plains...
Upper ridge-peripheral disturbances and moderately strong winds
aloft will influence the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies into
the central High Plains into this afternoon and tonight. Scattered
convection will likely initially develop and increase across
Wyoming/northern Colorado this afternoon as boundary layer warming
aids destabilization. Weak deep-layer flow/shear suggest updrafts
will struggle to organize; however, sufficiently steep lapse rates
and adequate instability favor gusty winds and perhaps marginally
severe hail with the strongest cores as storms develop
east-northeastward. Model guidance suggests a notable increase to
the low-level jet this evening across the central High Plains
including western portions of Kansas/Nebraska, which should support
eastward storm propagation after sunset.
...Western/northern North Dakota and vicinity...
Have introduced low severe probabilities for the potential of a few
strong/severe storms across the region, primarily late this
afternoon and evening. In the wake of some early day cloud cover and
isolated thunderstorms, a moist/potentially unstable air mass will
persist near/east of a surface low/front-related triple point.
Subsequent development toward/after peak heating may remain fairly
isolated. Regardless, the environment would seemingly support some
semi-sustained multicells and possibly a few slow-moving supercells
particularly across western/northern Dakota if/where storms do
develop. Localized severe-wind gusts and hail may occur.
...South Texas...
Low-level southeasterly winds may modestly strengthen today in
proximity to a westward drifting area of low pressure centered
across Deep South Texas. A few weak/transient supercells are
conceivable near the coast, but even so, destabilization inland
should be hindered by cloud cover/precipitation and any low-level
shear/SRH increase should remain modest overall. Thus, current
thinking is the tornado/wind gust-related severe potential will
remain negligible across the region.
..Guyer/Broyles.. 08/14/2022
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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