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    Day 2 Outlook >
Sep 20, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Sep 20 16:15:51 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190920 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190920 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 201615

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1115 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

   Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe storms capable of producing wind damage, isolated
   large hail and a couple tornadoes are possible today across the
   northern Plains, with more isolated severe storms possible in parts
   of the southern High Plains.

   ...Northern and Central Plains...
   Morning water vapor loop shows a large upper trough over the western
   US, with southwesterly midlevel flow strengthening across the
   Rockies and High Plains.  Several weak impulses are noted from CO
   northeastward into the Dakotas, with clusters of showers and
   thunderstorms occurring at this time.  The timing and effects of
   this ongoing convection will result in a rather complex forecast for
   this afternoon and evening.

   Activity currently over the western Dakotas is expected to intensify
   later today as air mass destabilizes and winds aloft strengthen. 
   Occasionally severe storms are expected to affect parts of central
   and northeast ND into central SD through the mid-late afternoon,
   with damaging winds, hail, and a couple of tornadoes possible.

   Later this afternoon, forcing associated with the a stronger
   shortwave trough will help to initiate thunderstorms from southern
   MT into eastern WY.  These storms will be in a favorable environment
   for supercells early in the convective life cycle, capable of large
   hail and a couple of tornadoes.  These storms will likely congeal
   and grow upscale during the evening as they track across parts of
   NE/SD with a continued threat of damaging winds and hail.

   ...Southern Plains...
   A weak remnant outflow boundary extends from near LBB into southern
   OK.  Thunderstorms are expected to develop in vicinity of this
   boundary this afternoon in a moist and very unstable air mass. 
   Deep-layer shear will be marginal for convective organization. 
   However, convergence along the boundary coupled with slightly
   enhanced low-level shear may be sufficient for a few supercell
   storms capable of hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado.

   ..Hart/Dial.. 09/20/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: September 20, 2019
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