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    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 22, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 22 16:08:21 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190322 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190322 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 221608

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1108 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

   Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
   OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS....

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
   Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and South Plains regions, this afternoon
   into early evening.  Large hail, locally severe wind gusts, and a
   tornado or two are possible.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Latest visible satellite imagery shows gradual clearing is occurring
   across eastern NM and west TX.  This will encourage boundary-layer
   heating and mixing, allowing low-level moisture to rapidly return to
   this corridor.  Surface dewpoints are expected to rise into the
   lower 50s by early afternoon.  Meanwhile, water vapor imagery shows
   a well-defined shortwave trough rotating across northwest NM. 
   Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature will overspread the
   discussion area by mid-late afternoon, helping to initiate scattered
   thunderstorms.

   Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and
   sufficient MLCAPE for robust updrafts.  Strong deep-layer shear and
   favorable low-level hodograph structures also support a few discrete
   supercells capable of large hail (possibly very large) and perhaps a
   tornado or two.  Storms are expected to congeal into one or more
   linear structures capable of gusty/damaging winds as they move
   eastward into a progressively more stable environment and weaken.

   ..Hart/Gleason.. 03/22/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: March 22, 2019
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