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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jan 19, 2021 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 19 16:31:10 UTC 2021 (Print Version | 20210119 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20210119 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 191631

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1031 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021

   Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

   ...Eastern/central Texas...
   Showers persist at midday along the cool side of a surface front,
   with a low but non-zero potential for lightning within a marginally
   supportive environment. Additional development should occur
   southwestward over time into other parts of south-central Texas,
   although thermodynamic profiles appear rather marginal for charge
   separation and thunder probabilities should remain minimal. 

   ...Far southern California/southwest Arizona...
   A closed upper low will continue to transition south-southwestward
   toward off the Baja coast through tonight. Related steep mid-level
   lapse rates and forcing for ascent may support isolated
   thunderstorms, although most of this activity should tend to be
   focused offshore and/or across northwest Mexico.

   ..Guyer.. 01/19/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: January 19, 2021
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