SPC AC 221608
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019
Valid 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS....
A few severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and South Plains regions, this afternoon
into early evening. Large hail, locally severe wind gusts, and a
tornado or two are possible.
...Southern High Plains...
Latest visible satellite imagery shows gradual clearing is occurring
across eastern NM and west TX. This will encourage boundary-layer
heating and mixing, allowing low-level moisture to rapidly return to
this corridor. Surface dewpoints are expected to rise into the
lower 50s by early afternoon. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery shows
a well-defined shortwave trough rotating across northwest NM.
Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature will overspread the
discussion area by mid-late afternoon, helping to initiate scattered
Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and
sufficient MLCAPE for robust updrafts. Strong deep-layer shear and
favorable low-level hodograph structures also support a few discrete
supercells capable of large hail (possibly very large) and perhaps a
tornado or two. Storms are expected to congeal into one or more
linear structures capable of gusty/damaging winds as they move
eastward into a progressively more stable environment and weaken.
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