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    Day 2 Outlook >
Sep 29, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Sep 29 16:19:21 UTC 2022 (Print Version | 20220929 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220929 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 291619

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1119 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

   Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN UT INTO WESTERN MT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Utah
   and western Wyoming into western Montana this afternoon and evening.

   ...Northern UT into MT this afternoon/evening...
   A midlevel low will move slowly east-southeastward over the northern
   Rockies, as midlevel height rises occur upstream over the northeast
   Pacific.  Ascent preceding the midlevel low/trough, and an
   associated low-midlevel baroclinic zone, will provide an environment
   to support thunderstorms this afternoon/evening from northern UT
   into MT.  Regional 12z soundings revealed modest low-midlevel
   moisture and the potential for steep low-level lapse rates and weak
   surface-based buoyancy with surface heating/mixing.  Thus,
   high-based thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon, with
   the potential for isolated strong outflow gusts based on inverted-v
   profiles and some downward momentum transfer.  Isolated, marginally
   severe hail may occur in MT, closer to the midlevel cold core.

   ...Southeast Atlantic Coast through early Friday...
   The core of Tropical Storm Ian, which has some hybrid/baroclinic
   characteristics, is moving off the east central FL coast and is
   forecast to strengthen some while gradually turning more northward
   toward the Carolinas on Friday (see latest NHC forecasts for
   details).  A cool/dry, continental air mass is entrenched across the
   Carolinas now, with widespread rainfall offshore.  It will take
   until Friday during the day to bring richer moisture and
   surface-based buoyancy inland across northeast SC and coastal NC, so
   any severe/tornado threat should remain offshore until the day-2
   forecast period.

   ..Thompson/Weinman.. 09/29/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: September 29, 2022
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