SPC AC 101619

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1019 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024

   Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
   EVENING FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to severe thunderstorms may affect portions of central
   Alabama into west-central Georgia through this evening.

   ...AL/GA...
   The subtropical jet extends across the Gulf Coast region today, with
   several subtle shortwave troughs suggested in water vapor imagery
   that will affect parts of FL/AL/GA.  Ample low-level moisture is
   present across central/southern AL/GA with dewpoints in the
   mid-upper 60s - yielding MUCAPE around 500 J/kg.  Several 12z CAM
   solutions indicate a mesoscale low-level jet max that will intensify
   ahead of the cluster of showers/thunderstorms over west-central AL. 
   This will lead to enhanced low-level vertical shear and forcing,
   providing  support for a few supercell/bowing storm structures and
   the risk of  a tornado or two and damaging wind gusts.  Given these
   trends, have opted to upgrade this corridor to SLGT.  Refer to MCD
   #2256 for further short-term details.

   ...Carolinas...
   Late tonight, the rapidly amplifying upper jet over the TN valley
   will lead to an organizing band of showers and low-topped
   thunderstorms along the cold front over SC/NC.  It still looks like
   the main intensification of this line will occur after 12z, so will
   not expand the MRGL risk farther east.  However, this area will
   continue to be re-evaluated in later outlooks.

   ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/10/2024

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