SPC AC 071622

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1022 AM CST Wed Dec 07 2022

   Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

   ...Discussion...
   Around the northwest periphery of the persistent mid-upper ridge
   over the Gulf of Mexico, a shortwave trough over the Great Basin
   will eject eastward to the southern Rockies. A cool air mass
   entrenched from much of OK and northwest TX northward will yield
   muted lee cyclogenesis downstream of the ejecting trough, such that
   the surface baroclinic zone will move little from north TX to the TN
   Valley through tonight. 

   Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, mainly through this
   afternoon, along the front from the Mid-South into the
   TN Valley, and over the Four Corners vicinity in association with
   the Great Basin trough. Scattered thunderstorms are most likely this
   evening into tonight as low-level warm theta-e advection strengthens
   from west TX towards the Ozarks. Much of this activity should remain
   on the cool side of the baroclinic zone. Marginal mid-level lapse
   rates resulting in weak elevated buoyancy should preclude
   appreciable severe potential.

   ..Grams/Squitieri.. 12/07/2022

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