SPC AC 031607
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 AM CST Fri Dec 03 2021
Valid 031630Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon through overnight
across parts of the southern Plains to Mid-South.
...Southern Plains to Mid-South...
Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough
moving across TX. A large shield of low and mid clouds is
associated with the area of large-scale lift ahead of the trough.
Observed and forecast soundings across this area show a pronounced
capping inversion, limiting surface-based parcels from convecting.
However, considerable moisture is noted above the inversion, which
has led to marginal elevated CAPE and occasional clusters of
lightning flashes this morning. This scenario will likely persist
through the forecast period, with showers and sporadic thunderstorm
activity possible from central TX into portions of OK/AR/LA/MS.
Coverage of flashes will be quite limited.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z