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    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 4, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 4 16:00:18 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240304 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240304 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 041600

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024

   Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
   FORECAST PERIOD OVER A LARGE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
   afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower
   Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest.
   Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds
   and even a tornado may also occur.

   ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today...
   Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today
   across the southern states, with several weak perturbations
   affecting the area.  A warm and moist surface air mass is in place
   across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s
   will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg.  Weak low-level warm
   advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm
   development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread
   eastward toward southwest MS.  Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at
   least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level
   winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the
   strongest cells.

   ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL...
   A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this
   morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass.  All 12z
   model guidance agrees on the development of showers and
   thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many
   solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and
   slightly elevated.  Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep
   mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. 
   Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some
   marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as
   well.

   ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley...
   Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of
   thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any
   particular area.  Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a
   conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably
   warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail.
    However, considerably uncertainty exists.

   ..Hart/Moore.. 03/04/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: March 04, 2024
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