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    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 15, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 15 16:42:08 UTC 2025 (Print Version | 20250215 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20250215 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 151642

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1042 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

   Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of far east Texas into
   much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast this afternoon
   through the overnight.  Several tornadoes and scattered to numerous
   damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats. A few strong
   tornadoes are also possible.

   ...Synopsis...
   Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level trough
   over the Permian Basin pivoting east through the base of a larger
   scale trough forecast to shift from the Rockies east into the MS
   Valley.  A complex surface pattern is evident with a low over OK
   with an accompanying trailing cold front, while a maritime
   boundary/residual frontal zone is draped over east TX arcing
   northeastward into the MS/AR/TN border region and then southeastward
   into the northeast Gulf of America.  As the cyclone consolidates and
   moves eastward this afternoon into AR, the aforementioned composite
   boundary will advance northward as a warm front into the Mid South
   and towards the southern Appalachians late.  The cold front is
   forecast to push southeast and overtake the western portion of the
   warm sector late today into tonight and provide a focus for numerous
   developing thunderstorms in the form of a squall line.

   ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast...
   Strong low-level warm advection has resulted in scattered
   showers/thunderstorms mainly north of the warm front from AR east
   into TN.  Southerly flow will promote poleward moist advection with
   60s deg F dewpoints spreading north across the lower MS Valley into
   parts of the Mid South.  The destabilizing warm sector will remain
   capped during the day before stronger large-scale ascent approaching
   from the west results in a extensive thunderstorm development from
   the Ark-La-Tex northeast into eastern AR/western TN/KY.  Filtered
   daytime heating and low-level moistening will aid in the development
   of around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. 
   Surface-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop by mid afternoon
   near or on the cold front from east TX into the Mid South.  Only a
   narrow window of opportunity for supercells will likely occur before
   rapid upscale growth into an extensive squall line by early evening.
   Strong 0-3 km shear, aided by a 45-55+ kt low-level jet, will easily
   aid updraft rotation and organized severe thunderstorms.

   Ample low-level shear will support a threat for several
   line-embedded tornadoes beginning from late this afternoon through
   early Sunday morning. The potential for supercells ahead of the line
   will likely remain limited but will be greatest perhaps over the
   southern parts of MS/AL tonight.  However, if cellular structures
   are maintained in the large-scale thunderstorm band, an accompanying
   risk for tornadoes may focus there and with any bowing inflections
   in the line.  Given the low CAPE/high shear setup with relatively
   modest lapse rates and moist profiles, scattered to numerous
   severe/damaging winds will likely occur with the squall line as it
   matures.  Have increased damaging wind probabilities from parts of
   MS into AL where confidence is greatest for damaging gusts later
   tonight.  A continued tornado/damaging wind risk will become
   increasingly confined to the Gulf coastal plain late tonight into
   the early Sunday morning hours.

   ..Smith/Supinie.. 02/15/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: February 15, 2025
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