SPC AC 221604

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1104 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

   Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered thunderstorms, some with damaging to severe gusts and
   large hail, are expected today over parts of the Mid-Atlantic region
   and New England.

   ...New England into Mid-Atlantic region...
   Morning surface analysis shows a cold front extending from Quebec
   into eastern OH, then southward into the TN Valley.  Relatively
   strong daytime heating is occurring ahead of the front across much
   of New England into the Mid-Atlantic states, with temperatures
   expected to climb into the 80s and low 90s.  Ample low level
   moisture is in place across the region with dewpoints in the upper
   60s, yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of up to 2000 J/kg.  Scattered
   clusters of thunderstorms are expected throughout the region by
   mid-afternoon.  Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid-level winds
   will be present today from VA northward, helping to organize
   convection, with stronger cells capable of locally damaging wind
   gusts.  Parts of northern/western New England will have the
   strongest low and deep layer shear profiles, suggesting a better
   chance of supercell storm structures along with a risk of hail and
   perhaps a tornado or two.

   ...Southeast States...
   Similar to yesterday, widespread hot/humid surface conditions and
   cool temperatures aloft will be coincident across much of the
   southeast US.  Scattered slow-moving afternoon thunderstorms will
   pose a risk of locally strong/damaging wind gusts across the region
   today.

   ..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/22/2022

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