SPC AC 161628

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1028 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022

   Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH FL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple tornadoes and locally damaging winds remain possible across
   south Florida through mid-afternoon. A tornado or two and locally
   damaging winds are also possible across portions of the Carolina
   coast through this evening.

   ...South FL...
   A squall line with embedded LEWP structures will spread across the
   rest of the peninsula and Keys through mid-afternoon. While buoyancy
   will remain meager, surface temperatures will continue to slowly
   warm through the 70s while dew points creep through the 60s ahead of
   the line. Low-level shear will be greater with northern extent,
   generally overlapping with the fringe of the scant surface-based
   buoyancy. Some potential will exist for a couple tornadoes with an
   embedded supercell and transient mesovortex structures. Locally
   damaging winds are also possible.

   ...Carolina Coast...
   A rather pronounced baroclinic zone just offshore will attempt to
   advance inland as the triple-point surface cyclone near Savannah
   tracks along the Carolina coastal plain. However, expansive
   antecedent precipitation will inhibit inland destabilization near
   and east of the triple point. A narrow sliver of surface-based CAPE
   to about 250 J/kg is possible from the Cape Fear to Outer Banks
   vicinity. If this buoyancy develops over land, it should be confined
   mostly below optimal lightning-generation layers by poor
   mid/upper-level lapse rates. More probable convective development is
   expected just off the coast and this may graze any narrow warm
   sector on land with some risk for a tornado or two and isolated
   damaging winds.

   ..Grams/Lyons.. 01/16/2022

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