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    Day 2 Outlook >
Sep 28, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 28 16:24:19 UTC 2022 (Print Version | 20220928 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220928 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 281624

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1124 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

   Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Tornadoes are expected this afternoon/evening, especially across
   east central Florida, in association with Major Hurricane Ian.

   ...East central FL this afternoon/evening...
   Major Hurricane Ian is approaching the FL Gulf coast near Fort Myers
   and Port Charlotte, and the storm core will continue to move
   northeastward across central FL through tonight (see latest NHC
   advisories for additional information).  Visible satellite imagery
   reveals a zone of filtered surface heating along the Atlantic coast,
   to the east of the thicker clouds with the hurricane core along the
   Gulf coast, as discussion in MD 1841.  Also, low-level flow has
   veered and hodographs have become less favorable for supercells
   across the Keys, while the stronger low-level shear/hodograph
   curvature will persist through the afternoon/evening across east
   central FL.  As new convection forms in the zone of stronger surface
   heating, tornadoes will be possible as supercells move northward
   into the weak baroclinic zone across central/east central FL, with a
   diminished threat farther northwest and deeper into the rain-cooled
   air.  This baroclinic zone may shift slowly northward along the
   Atlantic coast though early tonight, in advance of the hurricane
   core.

   ..Thompson/Weinman.. 09/28/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: September 28, 2022
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