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    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 21, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Feb 21 16:30:34 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240221 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240221 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 211630

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1030 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024

   Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER
   PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Areas of strong thunderstorm development are possible across parts
   of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains and across central
   Illinois to far western Indiana late Wednesday evening into early
   Thursday, with some risk for severe hail.

   ...Southern MO...
   Morning water vapor loop shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over
   southern CA.  This feature and its associated mid-level jet max will
   track across the southern Plains and into the mid MS valley by late
   tonight.  Ahead of this system, strengthening southwesterly
   low-level winds will enhance warm/moist advection into parts of
   MO/IL, leading to a zone of modest instability after dark from
   southeast KS across much of southern MO.  Forecast soundings from
   several 12z models indicate the boundary-layer remains capped,
   suggesting the prospects for robust thunderstorm development are
   rather low.  However, a few morning CAM solutions do show a storm or
   two overnight, which given the steep mid-level lapse rates and
   strong shear would be capable of hail.  Therefore, will maintain the
   ongoing MRGL risk area to denote the conditional risk.

   ...Northern IL/IN...
   A surface warm front is expected to become established from central
   MO into central IL later today.  Low-level winds are expected to be
   rather weak in vicinity of the boundary, but flow into the
   mid-levels should result in elevated warm-advection and the
   initiation of a few thunderstorms after midnight.  Forecast
   soundings suggest the potential for hail in the strongest cells,
   although the potential for severe-caliber hail appears marginal.

   ..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/21/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: February 21, 2024
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