SPC AC 261620

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1020 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2022

   Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
   PANHANDLE....

   ...SUMMARY...
   There is a risk of a tornado or two and locally damaging winds this
   afternoon through early tonight from southeast Louisiana to the
   Florida Panhandle.

   ...Central Gulf Coast...
   A deep upper low is moving slowly eastward across TX today, with the
   primary surface low just off the coast of southeast TX.  A warm
   front extends eastward from the low just south of the LA coast. 
   Continued strong southerly low-level winds will help the warm front
   to move slowly northward today, allowing a very moist air mass to
   spread into the Delta region of southeast LA and coastal counties of
   MS/AL and the FL Panhandle.

   A persistent line of thunderstorms currently extending from the LCH
   area southward into the Gulf is moving slowly eastward.  Several
   supercell structures have been noted with this line overnight and
   this morning, and the potential for rotating activity will continue
   through the afternoon and evening.  Low-level shear profiles are
   quite strong, especially in vicinity of the surface warm front. 
   Most of the severe threat should remain offshore.  However, CAM
   guidance suggests a narrow zone where surface-based supercells and
   an attendant risk of tornadoes/damaging wind gusts may threaten
   coastal counties/parishes this afternoon through early tonight. 
   Therefore have added a SLGT risk for this area.

   ..Hart/Bunting.. 11/26/2022

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