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    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 14, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 14 16:16:11 UTC 2025 (Print Version | 20250214 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20250214 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 141616

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1016 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

   Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight across the
   contiguous United States.

   ...Synopsis...
   Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough
   over the West.  This feature will amplify through late tonight as a
   100-kt 500mb speed max moves through the base of the trough and into
   northern Sonora and Chihuahua.  A belt of strong southwesterly
   mid-level flow will extend downstream of this upper trough into the
   southern Great Plains northeastward through the OH Valley.  The
   gradual moistening of a low-level conveyor belt from the northwest
   Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley will facilitate
   shower/thunderstorm development beginning late this evening but
   mainly into the overnight.  

   Despite lee cyclone development initially over eastern CO today but
   evolving into western OK tonight, a cool low-level airmass of
   continental origin will only slowly modify across the Mid South.  As
   a result, the poleward transport of moisture atop a cool boundary
   layer will promote elevated buoyancy ranging from around 1000 J/kg
   MUCAPE over southeast OK to 250 J/kg in the lower OH Valley. 
   Relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates will probably limit
   overall updraft vigor and thereby limit hail potential (perhaps
   locally sub severe) with the strongest storms.

   ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/14/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: February 14, 2025
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