SPC AC 221604
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022
Valid 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
Scattered thunderstorms, some with damaging to severe gusts and
large hail, are expected today over parts of the Mid-Atlantic region
and New England.
...New England into Mid-Atlantic region...
Morning surface analysis shows a cold front extending from Quebec
into eastern OH, then southward into the TN Valley. Relatively
strong daytime heating is occurring ahead of the front across much
of New England into the Mid-Atlantic states, with temperatures
expected to climb into the 80s and low 90s. Ample low level
moisture is in place across the region with dewpoints in the upper
60s, yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of up to 2000 J/kg. Scattered
clusters of thunderstorms are expected throughout the region by
mid-afternoon. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid-level winds
will be present today from VA northward, helping to organize
convection, with stronger cells capable of locally damaging wind
gusts. Parts of northern/western New England will have the
strongest low and deep layer shear profiles, suggesting a better
chance of supercell storm structures along with a risk of hail and
perhaps a tornado or two.
Similar to yesterday, widespread hot/humid surface conditions and
cool temperatures aloft will be coincident across much of the
southeast US. Scattered slow-moving afternoon thunderstorms will
pose a risk of locally strong/damaging wind gusts across the region
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z