Click-to-scroll-up Image
Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 21, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jul 21 16:26:26 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240721 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240721 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 211626

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1126 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

   Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AND FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO TO EASTERN
   NEW MEXICO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the
   evening across parts of central and southern Arizona, and from
   southern Colorado to eastern New Mexico.

   ...Synopsis...
   Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level disturbance
   moving south-southeast across WY/CO to the east of a mid-level ridge
   located over the Interior West.  A mid-level shortwave trough will
   move northward along the Pacific Northwest coast into British
   Columbia by tonight.  Farther east, a mid-level trough/low centered
   over the lower MO/mid MS Valleys will meander slowly eastward.  

   ...Sangre de Cristos and adjacent escarpment/plains...
   Scattered orographically favored thunderstorm development is
   forecast by early to mid afternoon across the mountains ahead of the
   aforementioned weak upper disturbance.  A seasonably moist airmass
   (reference 12 UTC Albuquerque raob data) is in place across the
   region with considerable cloud breaks and partly sunny skies noted
   in visible-satellite imagery.  Strong heating will foster upwards of
   500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating.  Modest deep-layer shear will
   limit overall convective organization potential, but the stronger
   multicells (becoming numerous in coverage) will likely be capable of
   an isolated hail/wind risk through the early evening before this
   activity dissipates. 

   ...AZ...
   A weak PV anomaly was noted in upper-layer water-vapor imagery this
   morning over northern AZ.  This upper feature may aid in storm
   development near the Mogollon Rim later this afternoon with
   scattered thunderstorms forecast.  A hot and a deeply mixed
   sub-cloud layer in the lower desert will likely support some risk
   for severe gusts via evaporatively cooled downbursts as this
   activity slowly pushes southward late this afternoon through the
   evening.  Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are
   possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges.  

   ...Central/eastern Oregon into northwest NV...
   Model guidance indicates scattered thunderstorms are forecast to
   develop later this afternoon on the southeast periphery of the
   mid-level shortwave trough glancing the region.  Inverted-V profiles
   per forecast soundings suggest gusty winds may accompany the
   stronger downdrafts.  The overall severe risk appears too limited in
   time/space to include a 5-percent severe wind highlight.

   ..Smith/Jirak.. 07/21/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 21, 2024
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities