SPC AC 011620

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1120 AM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021

   Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
   CAROLINAS AND NY/PA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered damaging winds and a tornado or two are most likely across
   portions of the Carolinas into early evening. Scattered damaging
   winds are also possible over parts of New York and Pennsylvania
   through early evening.

   ...Carolinas...
   A few supercells have evolved into a small cluster along the surface
   front across northeast NC. Additional convective development is
   expected farther southwest near the surface cyclone across central
   NC. Air mass ahead of the front/cyclone continues to destabilize in
   the presence of mid to upper 70s surface dew points. While low-level
   SRH should remain modest, slightly backed surface winds across far
   eastern NC may support the threat for a tornado or two. The primary
   hazard will likely be scattered damaging winds as the upstream
   convection develops and evolves into an eastward-moving cluster
   across eastern NC through this afternoon.

   ...NY/PA...
   Lower-topped thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of an
   eastward-progressing cold front in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes.
   More pronounced boundary-layer heating is underway across western to
   northeast PA into southeast/east-central NY, which should aid in
   some intensification of convection this afternoon. However,
   boundary-layer temperatures and dew points will be seasonally subpar
   with the bulk of destabilization occurring through steepening of
   mid-level lapse rates with approach of the shortwave trough. In
   addition, lower-level flow will remain relatively modest with faster
   mid-level flow largely confined to the upper portion of the weak
   buoyancy profile. As such, convection may struggle to become
   substantially deep and organized, which may result in only sporadic
   bouts of damaging winds and isolated marginally severe hail.

   ...Deep South...
   Scattered thunderstorms are expected along a trailing cold front
   that will slowly slide south across the region this afternoon. Weak
   deep-layer shear but large buoyancy will favor pulse to loosely
   organized multicells. Wet microbursts capable of producing locally
   damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard.

   ...West...
   In what is otherwise a weak meridional flow pattern across the West,
   a pair of MCVs, one over southeast NV and the other near the
   OR/ID/WA border area, may help focus weakly organized severe
   potential this afternoon. Relatively high PW values along with steep
   low-level lapse rates will support a threat for microbursts capable
   of isolated severe gusts.

   ..Grams/Squitieri.. 08/01/2021

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