SPC AC 201610

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1110 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

   Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the
   Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected.

   ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA...

   Strong heating ahead of an eastward-developing surface front will
   allow temperatures to continue climbing into the 70s F this
   afternoon. Boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest,
   with surface dewpoints generally reaching the mid/upper 50s F in a
   narrow corridor just as the surface front arrives. Morning balloon
   observations from GSO, RNK, IAD, and WAL show very dry midlevels as
   well. While some midlevel moistening will occur as strong midlevel
   southwesterlies overspread the region, overall airmass modification
   will remain poor. MLCAPE values are expected to remain stunted,
   generally less than 100-200 J/kg. This may be sufficient for a few
   lightning flashes as convection develops during the mid afternoon
   along the surface front. A well-mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb,
   where 25-40 kt of flow is forecast, is evident in forecast
   soundings. This may support a few strong gusts to 40 kt, but very
   poor thermodynamic profiles suggest potential for severe
   thunderstorms should remain low, precluding severe probabilities.

   ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/20/2025

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