Nov 5, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 5 16:19:20 UTC 2024 (20241105 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20241105 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20241105 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 17,739 903,585 Monroe, LA...Alexandria, LA...Opelousas, LA...Natchez, MS...Pineville, LA...
MARGINAL 86,933 7,126,225 Memphis, TN...Madison, WI...Evansville, IN...Lafayette, LA...Clarksville, TN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20241105 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 17,582 926,334 Monroe, LA...Alexandria, LA...Opelousas, LA...Natchez, MS...Pineville, LA...
2 % 29,792 1,999,867 Memphis, TN...Lafayette, LA...Lake Charles, LA...Port Arthur, TX...Southaven, MS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20241105 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 104,936 8,032,125 Memphis, TN...Madison, WI...Evansville, IN...Lafayette, LA...Clarksville, TN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20241105 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 051619

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1019 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024

   Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   LOUISIANA....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur across
   a portion of the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and central to
   southern Wisconsin.

   ...LA/MS...
   A large upper trough is present today over the central US, with the
   primary surface boundary extending from eastern AR southward into
   central LA.  Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring along and
   ahead of this boundary, including several storms exhibiting low and
   mid level rotation.  Winds aloft are expected to weaken through the
   day, but there is a continued chance of isolated tornadoes for a few
   hours late this morning and early afternoon.  Therefore have added a
   small SLGT risk area.  Please refer to MCD #2213 for further details
   on this environment.

   ...AR/TN/KY/IN...
   A narrow line of thunderstorms is noted along the boundary across
   eastern AR.  Several morning CAM solutions suggest this line may
   maintain some character through the afternoon and it tracks
   northeastward across parts of the mid MS Valley.  Visible satellite
   imagery shows breaks in the clouds across this region, providing
   some heating and destabilization.  Also, low level wind fields will
   remain rather strong ahead of the convection.  This may be
   sufficient for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts this afternoon.

   ....WI...
   A few low-topped showers and thunderstorms will likely form later
   this afternoon near a deepening surface low over WI.  Widespread
   clouds will limit destabilization, but there is some potential for
   locally gusty/damaging winds during the peak-heating period.

   ..Hart/Supinie.. 11/05/2024

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z