Dec 3, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Dec 3 15:37:54 UTC 2022 (20221203 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20221203 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20221203 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20221203 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20221203 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20221203 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 031537

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0937 AM CST Sat Dec 03 2022

   Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

   ...Discussion...
   A shortwave trough over the Lower Great Lakes will quickly move east
   across the Saint Lawrence Valley. An attendant surface cold front
   will push east across the Northeast and off the New England coast
   this evening, with its trailing portion lagging southwestward in the
   Southeast. Low-level moisture will remain greater over the
   central Gulf Coast, but forcing for ascent will continue to weaken
   along the slowly advancing portion of the front. Very poor 700-500
   mb lapse rates of 4.5-5 C/km evident in 12Z JAN and BMX soundings
   suggest lingering convection in the interior Deep South will
   struggle to adequately deepen for charge separation. Farther
   northeast over the Carolinas vicinity, elevated buoyancy appears to
   be quite minimal and potential for sporadic flashes within warm
   advection-driven convection should diminish by mid-afternoon. 

   In the West, isolated thunderstorms may persist into the afternoon
   with highly elevated convection across southern AZ where scant
   buoyancy has developed within a modest warm/moist advection regime,
   downstream of a lower-latitude shortwave trough in the eastern
   Pacific. Farther north, a more prominent upper low off the OR coast
   will slowly edge towards the coast through early Sunday. Adequate
   mid-level cooling might support low-topped thunderstorms overnight
   along the northern CA coast.

   ..Grams/Kerr.. 12/03/2022

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z