Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
San Antonio, TX...Laredo, TX...Schertz, TX...Seguin, TX...Alice, TX...
SPC AC 111626
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021
Valid 111630Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX...
Large hail will be possible today across central Texas, while large
hail and damaging gusts may occur later this afternoon/evening
across parts of south central Texas. More isolated severe storms
will be possible farther east into the lower Mississippi Valley and
...TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight...
Multiple clusters of elevated thunderstorms are ongoing from the
Edwards Plateau in TX northeastward into OK in association with
850-700 mb warm advection, downstream from a series of subtle
southern-stream speed maxima ejecting eastward in advance of a
midlevel trough over UT/CO. Other clusters of storms have shown
signs of slow weakening across southern LA in a weak low-level warm
advection zone north of a surface front that is sagging southward.
The slow-moving front extends westward across southeast TX and
southwestward into south central TX. South of the front, an influx
of mid 70s boundary-layer dewpoints continues from the Gulf of
Mexico, beneath an elevated mixed layer extending northeastward over
TX from northern Mexico.
The combination of steep midlevel lapse rates and moisture influx
into the warm advection zone atop the frontal surface will continue
to support elevated thunderstorms spreading eastward from TX to the
lower MS Valley through tonight. The more consistent threat for
large hail with the stronger elevated storms will be today across TX
where moderate buoyancy remains aloft, prior to more widespread
convective overturning and reduction of midlevel lapse rates.
Farther south along the front, moderate-strong buoyancy (MLCAPE up
to 3000 J/kg) is expected with daytime heating from portions of the
Rio Grande Valley into southeast TX. Isolated storms may form along
the front and pose a large hail threat. There is also a chance for
mergers of the frontal storms with convection originating east of
the higher terrain in northeast Mexico, which could lead to the
development of a larger cluster this evening across south central
...Southern AL/FL Panhandle to southern GA this afternoon...
Isolated strong-severe storms will be possible within and east of a
cluster of storms moving eastward over the MS coast as of late
morning, as well as along and south of a diffuse boundary across
southern GA. Effective bulk shear of 25-35 kt and MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg will support the potential for isolated large
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z