Jan 26, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 26 16:02:27 UTC 2022 (20220126 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220126 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220126 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220126 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220126 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220126 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 261602

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1002 AM CST Wed Jan 26 2022

   Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern
   Florida today through early evening, although severe storms are not
   expected.

   ...Synopsis...
   A cold front will drift southward into south FL through the day and
   into tonight.  Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be weak given
   only subtle perturbations within a zonal flow regime aloft, but
   storm coverage could be aided some by pockets of surface heating
   within cloud breaks this afternoon.  Despite MLCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg
   this afternoon and effective bulk shear near 35 kt, poor midlevel
   lapse rates and weak low-level flow both suggest that severe storms
   are unlikely.

   ..Thompson/Weinman.. 01/26/2022

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z