Mar 19, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 19 16:29:50 UTC 2019 (20190319 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190319 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190319 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20190319 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20190319 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20190319 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 191629

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

   Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Wednesday.

   ...Florida Keys vicinity...
   A few thunderstorms will be possible across the Straits of Florida
   through the afternoon.

   ...Southern Rockies...
   A shortwave trough over the Black Hills will move south into Kansas
   through 12Z Wednesday. Scant boundary-layer moisture amid steep
   low/mid-level lapse rates in conjunction with post-frontal upslope
   flow along the adjacent High Plains may aid in isolated thunder
   occurrence during the late afternoon to early evening.

   ...California...
   A shortwave trough will approach the California coast through early
   Wednesday. The onset of mid-level height falls should overspread the
   Central Valley and western Sierra Nevada this evening where limited
   buoyancy might support a few thunderstorms. Otherwise, very isolated
   thunder may accompany the trough as mid-level lapse rates steepen
   near the central/southern coast in the early morning.

   ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri...
   A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across the region this
   afternoon near an advancing surface low and front, although
   worst-case thermodynamic profiles will likely remain only marginally
   conducive for lightning generation. Thus, a very low
   coverage/probability (10 percent or less) of thunderstorms is
   currently perceived.

   ..Guyer/Goss.. 03/19/2019

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z