Nov 14, 2018 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 14 16:24:19 UTC 2018 (20181114 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20181114 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20181114 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20181114 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20181114 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20181114 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 141624

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1024 AM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

   Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

   ...FL...
   A strong upper low over western AR will track slowly eastward today
   across the southeast states.  Mid level heights are forecast to
   slowly fall over FL today and tonight, with scattered thunderstorms
   expected in vicinity of a stalled boundary across the north-central
   peninsula.  Forecast soundings in this area show weak mid-level
   lapse rates, weak vertical shear, and limited convergence along the
   boundary.  These conditions should limit the risk of organized
   severe storms.  However, there is a zone from Ocala to St. Augustine
   where a few of the 12z CAMs indicate a potential for strong storms
   later this afternoon and evening.  Gusty winds would be the main
   threat.

   ..Hart/Bentley.. 11/14/2018

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z