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    Day 2 Outlook >
Oct 18, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Oct 18 19:41:31 UTC 2021 (Print Version | 20211018 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20211018 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 181941

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0241 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021

   Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
   today through tonight.

   No updates are necessary to the previous outlook.

   ..Jewell.. 10/18/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021/

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper-level low pressure will move east over the Great Basin region
   towards the central/northern Rockies through tonight, preceded by
   height falls/large-scale lift and mid-level moistening. Showers and
   isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop in association with
   the upper low this afternoon. With a dry boundary layer in place,
   pockets of stronger heating this afternoon may result in a favorable
   environment for locally gusty winds and perhaps hail, especially
   over northern UT and adjacent areas of ID/WY/CO.  An overall lack of
   more substantive low-level moisture should preclude an organized
   severe risk.

   A low-amplitude perturbation over northern Mexico will approach West
   TX this afternoon, interacting with a deep mixed layer and modest
   instability (MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg).  Isolated to widely
   scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, with
   the potential for gusty winds with an isolated stronger storm given
   the dry sub-cloud environment.

   Elsewhere, a dry/stable air mass should preclude thunderstorm
   development.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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Page last modified: October 18, 2021
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