SPC AC 091944

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0144 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024

   Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN
   LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into
   much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to
   severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and
   Mississippi.

   ...20Z Update...
   No changes to the ongoing forecast. Prior forecast reasoning remains
   valid as some destabilization has occurred in parts of southern
   Louisiana into southern Mississippi. The strongest storms could
   produce damaging winds or a tornado.

   ..Wendt.. 12/09/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/

   ...LA/MS...
   Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough
   moving across central TX.  This feature will track into the lower MS
   valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds
   have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). 
   A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS
   overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary
   along the southern edge.  Morning model guidance suggests that
   precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest
   destabilization and northward return of the boundary.  Forecast
   soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some
   potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early
   evening.  Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing
   structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust.

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