SPC AC 251946
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2022
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PARTS OF
THE TEXAS GULF COAST...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur tonight along
parts of the Texas Coast.
No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk along parts of the TX
Coast. The development of sufficient instability to support truly
surface-based thunderstorms still appears questionable over land.
But, a chance for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may still
occur late tonight, mainly after 06Z, as mid to upper 60s surface
dewpoints attempt to spread inland across this region.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2022/
A large upper low is currently centered near El Paso, with strong
westerly flow aloft extending across northern Mexico. At the
surface, a weak low is analyzed just off the coast of south TX, with
a warm front extending eastward into the Gulf. Continued low-level
warm advection and lift will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms today near and north of the warm front - spreading
inland through the day. Thunderstorms that form in this regime will
be elevated with minimal risk of severe weather.
Later tonight, the surface low is forecast to be very near the
coastline with the warm front lifting northward to the immediate
coast as well. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will rotate around the
base of the low and approach south TX. This should result in
increasing coverage and intensity of thunderstorms after midnight.
Those storms near the low/warm front will potentially be
surface-based and in a region of strong low-level shear. A few
transient supercells may occur with a marginal risk of a tornado or
severe wind gusts.
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