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    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 28, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Feb 28 19:43:50 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240228 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240228 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 281943

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0143 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

   Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
   THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE
   SOUTHEAST....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today
   from portions of the Northeast southward into the Mid-Atlantic
   Region, and portions of the Carolinas and Southeast.

   ...20Z Update...
   Recent surface analysis places a low over southern Quebec, with an
   extensive cold front extending south of this low into the central
   Appalachians and then back more southwestward into southern LA.
   Thunderstorms are ongoing along this front over portions of TN, GA,
   and AL. The lack of buoyancy is limiting storm depth and lightning
   production along much the front farther north from the central
   Appalachians into southern Quebec. The only exception is over
   western NY, where brief clearing allowed surface temperatures to
   climb into the upper 50s/low 60s, promoting minimal buoyancy.
   Damaging gusts will remain possible along the length of this front 
   throughout the afternoon and evening, particularly in areas where
   deeper storm depth contributes to stronger, convectively augmented
   gusts.

   ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/

   ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians...
   A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall
   line continues to progress generally eastward across northern
   Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and
   southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an
   eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind
   gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region
   today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern
   Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are
   expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds
   aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover
   will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm
   sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak
   destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near
   the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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Page last modified: February 28, 2024
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