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    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 14, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 14 19:37:03 UTC 2025 (Print Version | 20250214 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20250214 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 141937

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0137 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

   Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Widely scattered weak thunderstorm development is likely across
   parts of the southern Great Basin into Four Corners vicinity, and
   across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, late this afternoon
   into evening.  More widespread weak thunderstorm development is
   probable across Arkansas into the lower Ohio Valley late this
   evening into early Saturday.

   ...20Z Outlook Update...
   Above a residual cold/stable boundary-layer, a moistening southerly
   return flow is in the process of developing off the western Gulf
   Basin.  Associated destabilization, rooted around the 850 mb level,
   has supported the initiation of some thunderstorm activity within a
   broader convective band across parts of southern Louisiana into
   southeastern Texas, in the presence of forcing for ascent aided by
   warm advection.  However, warming farther aloft is ongoing, and
   likely to increasingly suppress thunderstorm development near
   northwestern Gulf coastal areas into this evening.  To the
   north-northeast of this regime, strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric
   warm advection and destabilization are likely to support a more
   concentrated area of thunderstorm development focused across the
   Arkansas into lower Ohio Valley vicinity, downstream of the
   significant short wave trough forecast to dig across the southern
   Rockies and adjacent portions of the northern Mexican Plateau by 12Z
   Saturday.

   Beneath the mid-level cold core of this trough, ongoing insolation
   is contributing to boundary-layer destabilization across the
   southern Great Basin through Four Corners region.  Forecast
   soundings continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles will
   become supportive of widely scattered convection capable of
   producing lightning, before this potential diminishes during the
   evening with the onset of diurnal boundary-layer cooling.

   ..Kerr.. 02/14/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough
   over the West.  This feature will amplify through late tonight as a
   100-kt 500mb speed max moves through the base of the trough and into
   northern Sonora and Chihuahua.  A belt of strong southwesterly
   mid-level flow will extend downstream of this upper trough into the
   southern Great Plains northeastward through the OH Valley.  The
   gradual moistening of a low-level conveyor belt from the northwest
   Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley will facilitate
   shower/thunderstorm development beginning late this evening but
   mainly into the overnight.  

   Despite lee cyclone development initially over eastern CO today but
   evolving into western OK tonight, a cool low-level airmass of
   continental origin will only slowly modify across the Mid South.  As
   a result, the poleward transport of moisture atop a cool boundary
   layer will promote elevated buoyancy ranging from around 1000 J/kg
   MUCAPE over southeast OK to 250 J/kg in the lower OH Valley. 
   Relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates will probably limit
   overall updraft vigor and thereby limit hail potential (perhaps
   locally sub severe) with the strongest storms.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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Page last modified: February 14, 2025
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