SPC AC 171957
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021
Valid 172000Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A few strong to locally severe storms with gusty winds may occur
across the southern High Plains this afternoon into early evening.
Only minor adjustments have been made to previous forecast.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021/
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along and ahead
of a cold front moving southeastward into parts of western KS/OK and
the TX Panhandle. Full sunshine in this region will yield steep
low-level lapse rates and a deeply mixed boundary layer. Sufficient
CAPE will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the
strongest cells for a few hours early this evening.
Elsewhere, an isolated strong storm or two capable of gusty winds is
possible this afternoon over MS, and over southern AZ. However, the
risk in both areas appears too low to warrant inclusion of a 5% wind
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