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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jun 24, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 24 20:00:06 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240624 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240624 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 242000

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

   Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH WI...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN EAST
   NC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper
   Midwest late this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially
   widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of
   Minnesota into Wisconsin.

   ...20Z Update...
   Overall forecast scenario remains valid with potential for an
   intense, bowing MCS this evening into tonight. With continued
   spatiotemporal differences among recent guidance for initial
   supercell development, confidence is below-average for further
   increases in severe probabilities along the north-northwest to
   south-southeast oriented MLCAPE gradient over the Upper MS Valley. 
   In addition, the likely orientation of the MCS with respect to the
   instability gradient suggest the significant severe wind threat may
   be relatively confined owing to abundant warm-moist sector MLCIN to
   the west and diminishing instability to the east. The corridor
   previously highlighted, that is centered on a portion of the Upper
   MS Valley into south WI, remains the most probable zone for
   potentially destructive wind gusts.

   ..Grams.. 06/24/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/

   ...Upper Midwest...
   A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN,
   associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada.  Extreme
   instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and
   accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to
   MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. 
   Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective
   development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening
   southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm
   advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN.  Initial
   storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample
   low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail,
   damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.  

   As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that
   the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving
   bowing MCS.  However, there is considerable diversity regarding the
   track of the most intense storms.  Given the very warm temperatures
   aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the
   thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. 
   The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally
   significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. 
   The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the
   storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue
   morning, suggesting a weakening trend.

   ...Central High Plains...
   Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to
   develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread
   eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS.  Hot surface temperatures and
   inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with
   this activity for a few hours early this evening.

   ...Eastern NC/SC...
   A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a
   very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the
   front.  Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with
   sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and
   promote a risk of damaging wind gusts.  Given the amount of heating
   that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing
   substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of
   this area.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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