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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 25, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat May 25 20:09:24 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240525 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240525 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 252009

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

   Valid 252000Z - 261200Z


   An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon
   into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains.  A few
   long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur.  Giant
   hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected.

   Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on
   increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas
   congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast
   soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the
   overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level
   lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind
   gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. 

   The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into
   north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous
   supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they
   continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the
   primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the
   low-level jet intensifies.

   No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for
   additional discussion of the threat in this area.

   ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/

   ...Central/Southern Plains...
   Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this
   update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the
   Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z
   HREF guidance. 

   Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest
   TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and
   expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid
   a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates
   will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of
   the dryline. 

   Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon
   across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to
   erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected
   farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS,
   where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer
   coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a
   high-end/all hazards severe risk.  Additional isolated supercell
   development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern
   KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z
   high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions.  As
   mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an
   extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is
   expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from
   late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes,
   very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains

   Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring
   downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well
   into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are
   expected to continue moving southeast within a
   moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of
   strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail.  A small
   Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the
   more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear
   and moderate/strong instability will exist.  

   ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley...
   Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the
   cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal
   trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and
   persist into early evening.  

   Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported
   by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper
   50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE.  Weak
   low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind
   profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing
   layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. 
   Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the
   best-organized convection.



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