SPC AC 031942

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0142 PM CST Fri Dec 03 2021

   Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon through overnight
   across parts of the southern Plains to the Mid-South.

   ...20z Update...

   The prior outlook remains on track. Only minor changes in the 10%
   general thunderstorm delineation have been made, mainly to trim
   probabilities from parts of central TX, based on latest observations
   and trends in forecast guidance. Isolated thunderstorms remain
   possible through the overnight hours from portions of
   north/northeast TX to the Mid-South.

   ..Leitman.. 12/03/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Fri Dec 03 2021/

   ...Southern Plains to Mid-South...
   Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough
   moving across TX.  A large shield of low and mid clouds is
   associated with the area of large-scale lift ahead of the trough. 
   Observed and forecast soundings across this area show a pronounced
   capping inversion, limiting surface-based parcels from convecting. 
   However, considerable moisture is noted above the inversion, which
   has led to marginal elevated CAPE and occasional clusters of
   lightning flashes this morning.  This scenario will likely persist
   through the forecast period, with showers and sporadic thunderstorm
   activity possible from central TX into portions of OK/AR/LA/MS. 
   Coverage of flashes will be quite limited.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z