SPC AC 261942

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0242 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

   Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Episodic severe thunderstorms will persist into tonight across a
   broad portion of the Deep South/Southeast States. A few strong
   tornadoes and very large hail may occur with the most intense
   storms, particularly from central Louisiana across central/southern
   portions of Mississippi and Alabama this afternoon and evening.

   ...20Z Update...
   Two strong supercells have developed in far southeast Texas and
   should maintain themselves as they move east. The low-level jet is
   only around 25 knots per the LCH 18Z RAOB and the POE VWP. However,
   this flow is expected to increase to around 35 knots by 22Z.
   Therefore, the tornado threat is expected to increase once these
   storms reach eastern Louisiana and into Mississippi. See MCD 357 for
   additional information about the evolving threat in this region. 

   A cluster of supercells has developed farther north across
   north-central Louisiana. Storm interference will likely keep the
   severe threat somewhat muted, but some large hail is possible from
   this activity. 

   Additional supercells may develop across eastern Louisiana and
   central Mississippi this afternoon along and to the south of a
   frontal zone in the region. These storms will pose a threat for all
   severe weather hazards including tornadoes, some strong. 

   Ongoing supercells across southern Alabama and vicinity are expected
   to continue through the afternoon and into the evening with mostly a
   large hail threat. See MCD 358 for additional details.

   A few damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado remain possible across
   Northeast Illinois/northern Indiana. See MCD 356 for additional
   information.

   ..Bentley.. 03/26/2023

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023/

   ...Deep South/Southeast...
   Some severe potential, mostly in the form of hail/wind, may continue
   early this afternoon across the South Carolina Piedmont/southern
   North Carolina. This environment also remains conditionally
   favorable for a few severe storms to the west across southeast
   Mississippi, south-central Alabama, into west-central Georgia near
   the effective front. This sub-regional corridor may be experiencing
   a bout of shortwave ridging, but that at the same time, the boundary
   layer will continue to diurnally destabilize.

   Focus then quickly turns farther west to the potential for deep
   convective development along the northward-shifting boundary from
   east/southeast Texas into Louisiana, which could potentially occur
   relatively early, during early/mid-afternoon. See Mesoscale
   Discussion 354 for more short-term details. Low-level shear/SRH will
   not initially be strong but strengthen through late afternoon/early
   evening as 850mb/1-2 km AGL winds increase and low-level hodographs
   enlarge. Storms, including initially semi-discrete/intense
   supercells, will tend to cluster/gradually grow upscale along the
   boundary with hail/wind potential, but an increased concern for
   tornadoes, some of which may be strong/intense (EF2+), would exist
   with supercells that evolve/persist in a semi-discrete manner south
   of the boundary and move into and/or develop across
   south-central/southeast Mississippi, and eventually
   southwest/southern Alabama this evening as 850mb/1-2 km AGL winds
   further intensify.

   ...Illinois/Indiana...
   Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
   across eastern/northeast Illinois as a low-amplitude shortwave
   trough overspreads this region. Although low-level moisture should
   remain limited, enough weak instability should still develop through
   the day as mid-level temperatures cool with the shortwave trough
   passage. With some enhanced low/mid-level flow forecast, any
   convection that can develop and be sustained may pose an isolated
   damaging wind risk, and perhaps a brief tornado across
   north-central/northeast Illinois.

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