SPC AC 061952

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0152 PM CST Mon Dec 06 2021

   Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL LA
   INTO SOUTHWEST AL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to severe storms are expected today over parts of
   Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.  Damaging wind gusts will be
   the primary hazard.

   ...20Z Update...

   ...Far Southeast TX into West-Central GA...
   The cold front continues to push southeastward, with recent surface
   analysis placing it from HOU northeastward to near BTR before
   becoming more wavy due to augmentation by convective outflow across
   MS and AL. As discussed in MCD #1969, some intensification of
   thunderstorm development is still possible late this afternoon,
   particularly across parts of south central through southeastern
   Alabama. This intensification may be accompanied by the risk of a
   few damaging wind gusts and/or a brief tornado, particularly as the
   storms along the front interact with any pre-frontal development. A
   similar situation is possible farther west across southern LA and
   far southern MS.

   ..Mosier.. 12/06/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CST Mon Dec 06 2021/

   ...TX to GA...
   A large upper trough is dominant across much of the eastern US
   today, with the associated cold front extending from northeast LA
   into middle TN.  Widespread thunderstorms are occurring along and
   ahead of the cold front, with occasional clusters of storms showing
   sufficient intensification for some concern for damaging winds over
   the past few hours.  Pockets of heating ahead of the line will
   maintain deep convection through the day, with storms moving across
   the remainder of LA/MS/AL/western GA.  However, low and mid level
   wind fields will weaken throughout the day.  This is expected to
   keep the overall severe threat limited and sporadic.  Nevertheless,
   the strongest cells across the region will pose a risk of damaging
   wind gusts or perhaps a tornado or two.  Please refer to Mesoscale
   Discussion #1968 for further details.

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