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    Day 2 Outlook >
Nov 7, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 7 19:59:09 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20241107 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20241107 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 071959

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0159 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

   Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes
   are possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas.

   ...20Z Update...
   Primary change to the outlook was to adjust tornado probabilities
   along the surface boundary in central Texas. Storm coverage still
   appears it will be isolated, but low-level shear would favor some
   tornado risk. Elsewhere, only minor adjustments were made to the
   general thunder area. See the previous discussion for additional
   details.

   ..Wendt.. 11/07/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024/

   ...West and Central TX...
   A large upper low will remain over the Four Corners states through
   tonight, with model guidance suggesting a rather strong shortwave
   trough will rotate through the base of the low and move into West TX
   overnight.  The primary surface boundary currently extends E-W
   across central TX and will lift northward through the day, allowing
   very moist air to stream into parts of western and west-central TX. 


   Current indications are that storms will become more numerous
   through the afternoon and evening across the region.  Vertical shear
   profiles over a rather large area would support rotating updrafts,
   but stable near-surface conditions will limit the severe threat to
   the north of the front.  Along and to the south of the boundary,
   forecast soundings suggest some concern for supercells capable of
   damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes this evening.  Have
   extended the SLGT farther northeast into the ABI area where morning
   CAM solutions show the warm front and several intense storms later
   today.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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Page last modified: November 07, 2024
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