SPC AC 171957

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0257 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

   Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to locally severe storms with gusty winds may occur
   across the southern High Plains this afternoon into early evening.

   ...Discussion...

   Only minor adjustments have been made to previous forecast.

   ..Dial.. 09/17/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021/

   ...KS/OK/TX...
   No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.  Scattered
   thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along and ahead
   of a cold front moving southeastward into parts of western KS/OK and
   the TX Panhandle.  Full sunshine in this region will yield steep
   low-level lapse rates and a deeply mixed boundary layer.  Sufficient
   CAPE will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the
   strongest cells for a few hours early this evening.

   Elsewhere, an isolated strong storm or two capable of gusty winds is
   possible this afternoon over MS, and over southern AZ.  However, the
   risk in both areas appears too low to warrant inclusion of a 5% wind
   risk.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z