SPC AC 121933

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0233 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

   Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely today and tonight.

   ...20z Update...
   The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required.
   Weak convection across the Great Lakes region has produced small
   (less than one inch) hail within the past couple of hours, but the
   thermodynamic environment remains rather marginal and is not
   expected to substantially improve. Latest CAM guidance continues to
   show weak convective signals across the region, suggesting the
   potential for organized severe convection remains low. See the
   previous discussion for additional details.

   ..Moore.. 10/12/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024/

   ...Great Lakes Region...
   Another relatively quiet convective day is anticipated across the
   CONUS, with most areas dry and stable.  One exception will be along
   and north of a surface boundary extending across northern IN.  A
   fast-moving shortwave trough currently over MI/WI will track along
   this boundary, aiding in the development of late afternoon and
   evening showers and thunderstorms - mainly over southern Lower MI. 
   Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and strong winds
   aloft, but very limited moisture and CAPE.  The strongest cells may
   produce small hail and gusty winds, but current indications are that
   severe thunderstorms are unlikely.

   Other thunderstorms may affect portions of south FL and the Keys
   this afternoon, but no severe storms are expected.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z