Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Jan 19, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 19 19:37:13 UTC 2022 (Print Version | 20220119 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220119 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 191937

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0137 PM CST Wed Jan 19 2022

   Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX TO
   THE ARK-LA-MISS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple tornadoes along with scattered damaging winds and hail will
   be possible into this evening, mainly from east Texas across western
   and northern Louisiana.

   ...20z Update...

   The ongoing outlook remains on track and no changes are needed with
   the 20z update. Convection continues to increase ahead of the
   surface cold front across parts of eastern TX into LA and far
   southern AR where Severe Thunderstorm Watch 16 is now in effect. A
   risk for hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will accompany
   this activity into this evening. For more information on short term
   severe potential reference MCD 0086.

   ..Leitman.. 01/19/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022/

   ...East TX to the Lower MS Valley...
   Boundary-layer heating of an increasingly moist wedge of partially
   modified return-flow air (surface dew points from upper 50s to mid
   60s F) and will help to offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates to
   yield MLCAPE peaking towards 1000-1500 J/kg across east TX at 21Z.
   Ascent will occur both with the southeast-moving cold front in the
   Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss and a pre-frontal, warm-sector convergence
   zone in a warm-advection plume centered on southeast TX and the
   Sabine Valley. This latter corridor is expected to contain primarily
   discrete afternoon convection amid broad 50-60 kt 500-mb westerlies.
   Guidance does suggest that hodograph weakness will be prominent
   around 700 mb, until winds near this level strengthen in the
   evening. As such, the productivity of supercells within a tornado
   and hail context may be subdued given this initial weakness and the
   modest upper-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, adequate low-level SRH
   will exist for some tornado threat and 40-50 kt effective shear
   magnitudes will support hail as well. 

   Convection along the advancing cold front will more quickly grow
   upscale with a predominant cluster to linear mode during the early
   evening. Main threat in this regime should be damaging winds and a
   brief tornado or two from embedded LEWPs/mesovortices. Greater
   low-level SRH may compensate for decreasing surface-based buoyancy
   with eastern extent across MS until convection becomes elevated.
   With time, convection should become increasingly parallel to
   deep-shear vectors as upper support from the low-amplitude impulse
   over OK shifts east of the region. While convection will likely
   persist into the overnight across the northwest Gulf Coast to Lower
   MS Valley, the severe threat should wane.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: January 19, 2022
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities