SPC AC 041913

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0213 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024

   Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

   Little was changed to the existing outlook for the 20Z outlook
   except to remove the 10% general thunderstorm area from IL as the
   activity has diminished.

   Otherwise, general storms will remain possible from the TX Coast
   into much of the Southeast, south of the Great Lakes high and within
   the relatively moist easterly flow regime.

   ..Jewell.. 10/04/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024/

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes will
   continue to quickly move east through the afternoon and a lingering
   thunderstorm cluster over west-central IL late this morning will
   gradually diminish as this disturbance becomes displaced.  

   Farther south, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be
   possible from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Gulf
   Coast/Southeast.  Weak flow will limit storm intensity in these
   regions.  A vigorous shortwave trough will move across the Pacific
   Northwest and northern Rockies/Plains through tonight.  While
   large-scale forcing and mid-level flow associated with the upper
   trough passage will be strong, thunderstorm coverage is expected to
   remain sparse due to a rather dry airmass present across these
   areas.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z