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    Day 2 Outlook >
Nov 10, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 10 19:54:11 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20241110 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20241110 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 101954

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0154 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

   Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for severe thunderstorms appears minimal through tonight.

   ...20Z Update...
   Other than minor changes to the general thunder area based on
   current observations, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid.

   ..Wendt.. 11/10/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024/

   ...Discussion...
   An upper low now crossing the Upper Mississippi Valley is forecast
   to gradually devolve into an open wave, as it crosses the Upper
   Great Lakes region and shifts across the Ottawa River and St.
   Lawrence Valleys, and Lower Great Lakes through the end of the
   period.  As this occurs, a surface cold front will similarly
   progress eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and Midwest region
   today, reaching the central and southern Appalachians by 11/12Z
   (Monday morning).

   Ahead of the front, a relatively moist boundary layer but weak lapse
   rates aloft will permit only weak warm-sector instability.  While a
   more tropical low-level airmass will reside in the vicinity of the
   Lower Mississippi Valley, in part due to east-southeasterly
   advection associated with the presence of Tropical Storm Rafael
   sitting nearly stationary over the central Gulf, weak shear
   precludes appreciable severe potential.  Farther north, stronger
   flow aloft will be offset by lower theta-e/weak CAPE as compared to
   areas farther south.  As such, severe weather is not anticipated.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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Page last modified: November 10, 2024
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