SPC AC 251946

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0146 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2022

   Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PARTS OF
   THE TEXAS GULF COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur tonight along
   parts of the Texas Coast.

   ...20Z Update...
   No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk along parts of the TX
   Coast. The development of sufficient instability to support truly
   surface-based thunderstorms still appears questionable over land.
   But, a chance for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may still
   occur late tonight, mainly after 06Z, as mid to upper 60s surface
   dewpoints attempt to spread inland across this region.

   ..Gleason.. 11/25/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2022/

   ...Texas Coast...
   A large upper low is currently centered near El Paso, with strong
   westerly flow aloft extending across northern Mexico.  At the
   surface, a weak low is analyzed just off the coast of south TX, with
   a warm front extending eastward into the Gulf.  Continued low-level
   warm advection and lift will result in scattered showers and
   thunderstorms today near and north of the warm front - spreading
   inland through the day.  Thunderstorms that form in this regime will
   be elevated with minimal risk of severe weather.

   Later tonight, the surface low is forecast to be very near the
   coastline with the warm front lifting northward to the immediate
   coast as well.  Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will rotate around the
   base of the low and approach south TX.  This should result in
   increasing coverage and intensity of thunderstorms after midnight. 
   Those storms near the low/warm front will potentially be
   surface-based and in a region of strong low-level shear.  A few
   transient supercells may occur with a marginal risk of a tornado or
   severe wind gusts.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z