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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jun 14, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 14 19:46:22 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240614 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240614 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 141946

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

   Valid 142000Z - 151200Z


   Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around
   60-80 mph will be possible through this evening along the Front
   Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to locally
   severe storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will
   also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
   through about dusk.

   ...20Z Update...
   Convection from New England to the Upper OH Valley has largely
   struggled to greatly intensify beyond a marginally severe status as
   of yet. Still, where boundary-layer warming has been more pronounced
   from parts of the Upper OH Valley, DE Valley, and southern to
   eastern New England, a few clusters may yet produce strong to
   localized severe gust before convection diminishes after dusk.

   The central states severe threat appears on-track. Deepening
   convection from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains northward along the
   Front Range should intensify as it impinges on the strengthening
   buoyancy plume over the central High Plains. For additional
   short-term information, see MCD 1262.

   ..Grams.. 06/14/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/

   ...Central Plains...
   A mid-level shortwave trough over the Southwest will continue
   northeastward today towards the central Rockies/Plains.
   Post-frontal, low-level easterly upslope flow is ongoing across the
   central High Plains to the Front Range in eastern CO. A somewhat
   moist-level airmass is present across this area, and robust daytime
   heating is forecast with little cloud cover present on recent
   visible satellite imagery. Initially high-based thunderstorms should
   form over the central Rockies as forcing aloft overspreads this
   region. Modest, but sufficient, mid-level flow attendant to the
   shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear should support some
   updraft organization and a threat for severe hail with more discrete
   cells initially.

   A fairly quick evolution/upscale growth into a loosely organized
   cluster still appears likely as convection spreads
   east-northeastward into the central High Plains later this afternoon
   and early evening. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds
   around 60-70 mph should materialize as this mode transition occurs.
   As low-level lapse rates become steepened with robust heating, and
   the boundary layer becomes very well mixed, some risk for isolated
   significant severe gusts (75-80 mph) may develop. This risk appears
   relatively greatest across parts of eastern CO into adjacent
   portions of western KS/NE. Late this evening, the cluster should
   eventually encounter a less unstable airmass with eastward extent
   across the central Plains, and subsequently weaken.

   ...Northern Plains/Rockies...
   Diurnal destabilization should occur today near/east of a weak
   surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability
   extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to
   widely scattered thunderstorms should form by late afternoon into
   the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support isolated
   stronger storms capable of producing occasional hail and
   strong-to-severe wind gusts. This threat should tend to remain
   fairly isolated/marginal.

   Recent visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover remains prevalent
   across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold
   front. This should tend to delay/mute daytime heating to some
   extent, especially with northward extent into New England. Even so,
   filtered diurnal heating, and less cloud cover southward into the
   Mid-Atlantic, will support modest destabilization. Most guidance
   continues to suggest that MLCAPE will generally reach around
   500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Current
   expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage
   and intensity across these areas this afternoon as the front
   continues eastward in tandem with a mid/upper-level trough over
   eastern Canada. With around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear available
   to support updraft organization, occasional damaging winds should be
   the primary threat with any clusters or short line segments that can
   develop. Isolated hail may also occur with initially more discrete
   activity. This activity is forecast to spread eastward through the
   afternoon and early evening, before eventually weakening and/or
   reaching the coast.

   Additional convection may form this afternoon along the trailing
   portion of the cold front in western PA, northern WV, and
   southeast/central OH. An embedded, low-amplitude mid-level shortwave
   trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may aid this development,
   along with modest low-level convergence along the front. Overall
   thunderstorm coverage is still somewhat uncertain with westward
   extent into the OH Valley. But, isolated to widely scattered
   thunderstorms, including a mix of a couple of supercells and small
   clusters with associated hail/wind threat, support a westward
   expansion of the Slight Risk to account for this potential.



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