Mar 3, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 3 19:59:30 UTC 2024 (20240303 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240303 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20240303 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 30,970 11,789,987 Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Orlando, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20240303 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20240303 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20240303 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 31,108 11,854,641 Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Orlando, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...
   SPC AC 031959

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0159 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024

   Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FLORIDA
   PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida
   this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be
   the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur.

   ...Discussion...
   No appreciable change was made to the previously issued convective
   outlook.

   ..Smith.. 03/03/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/

   ...FL...
   Morning water vapor loop shows a southern-stream shortwave trough
   moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into FL.  Warm and moist
   low-level conditions are in place across FL today, with sufficient
   insolation to lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80sF.  A
   combination of weak large-scale ascent and convergence along
   sea-breeze boundaries will result in scattered afternoon
   thunderstorms.  Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1500
   J/kg and weak wind fields in the lower 3 km, but 30+ westerly knot
   flow above 5km.  This should support a few storms becoming organized
   multicells or transient supercells - capable of hail and gusty
   winds.  At this time, coverage of the stronger cells appears limited
   so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z