Dec 2, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Dec 2 19:39:49 UTC 2022 (20221202 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20221202 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20221202 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20221202 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20221202 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20221202 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 021939

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0139 PM CST Fri Dec 02 2022

   Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

   No changes have been made to the outlook. See the previous
   discussion below for more information.

   ..Dean.. 12/02/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Fri Dec 02 2022/

   ...Synopsis...
   A potent mid-level shortwave trough over the Eastern Great
   Basin/central Rockies will rapidly move east and reach the Great
   Lakes/OH Valley by early Saturday morning.  An elongated area of
   surface low pressure from the central High Plains to the Upper
   Midwest will consolidate as the cyclone develops northeast into
   Ontario by early tonight.  A cold front will sweep southeast across
   much of the central U.S. through daybreak Saturday.  A corridor of
   strong moisture transport atop a seasonably cool continental airmass
   centered over the TN Valley, will contribute to weak buoyancy and
   the development of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z