Sep 23, 2018 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Sep 23 19:26:05 UTC 2018 (20180923 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180923 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180923 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180923 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180923 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180923 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 231926

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

   Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are not anticipated across the U.S. today.

   ...Discussion...

   Only minor adjustments have been made to previous forecast which
   remains largely on track.

   ..Dial.. 09/23/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the northern
   Rockies to the northern Plains through tonight. Associated lee
   cyclogenesis will occur today across southeastern WY and the western
   NE Panhandle, while a surface front remains quasi-stationary from
   southern SD to western MN.  Though low-level moisture return will
   remain limited, there should be sufficient moistening near/above the
   surface to support some elevated convection late tonight in the zone
   of ascent focused along the front.

   Otherwise, a slow-moving front will persist from east TX to the
   Ark-La-Miss and the TN Valley.  A tropical moisture plume coincident
   with the front and a series of weak midlevel perturbations will
   again support scattered thunderstorms, mainly this
   afternoon/evening.  Poor lapse rates and relatively weak vertical
   shear will preclude any threat for organized severe storms.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z