Jan 23, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 23 19:39:20 UTC 2022 (20220123 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220123 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220123 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220123 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220123 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220123 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 231939

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0139 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022

   Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible across southeast Arizona
   and southwest New Mexico today.

   No changes were made to the previous outlook.

   ..Jewell.. 01/23/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Sun Jan 23 2022/

   ...AZ/NM/TX through tonight...
   A closed midlevel low will move slowly eastward from Sonora/southern
   AZ to far west TX by Monday morning.  Cold midlevel temperatures
   with association steep lapse rates and weak buoyancy will support
   the potential for isolated thunderstorms, aided this afternoon by
   surface heating/mixing.  Some elevated convection (rooted near 700
   mb) may occur farther east in TX overnight, in the zone of ascent
   preceding the midlevel trough.  However, buoyancy will be limited,
   and it is not clear that cloud depth will be sufficient for
   lightning production.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z