Jan 20, 2019 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 20 19:50:40 UTC 2019 (20190120 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190120 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190120 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20190120 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20190120 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20190120 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 201950

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0150 PM CST Sun Jan 20 2019

   Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

   ...Discussion...
   No substantial change was made to the previous forecast.

   ..Smith.. 01/20/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Sun Jan 20 2019/

   ...Synopsis...
   A deep cyclone will move across extreme southeast New England this
   afternoon, and a trailing cold front has already progressed off the
   Atlantic coast.  Some elevated convection with isolated lightning
   strikes will be possible for the next couple of hours across
   southeast New England, before the thunderstorm threat ends by mid
   afternoon.  Farther west, a pronounced midlevel trough will move
   inland over northern CA later today into tonight.  Cooling midlevel
   temperatures and associated steep low-midlevel lapse rates will
   support weak buoyancy and a continued threat for isolated
   thunderstorms across the northern CA coast and Sacramento Valley
   through tonight.  Small hail will be possible with the stronger
   storms, given the steep lapse rates and relatively cool midlevel
   temperatures (as low as -30 C at 500 mb).

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z