Nov 15, 2018 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 15 19:56:23 UTC 2018 (20181115 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20181115 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20181115 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20181115 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20181115 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20181115 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 151956

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

   Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
   Lower 48 states.

   ...Discussion...
   The only change this outlook is to remove low-severe probabilities
   over far eastern NC since the main convective band has moved east
   over the Gulf Stream.  

   Although insignificant for this outlook, there are numerous small
   convective cumulus displaying supercell-like characteristics (well
   southeast of the NC coast over the western Atlantic) in both their
   appearance and deviation from the mean flow in the very shallow
   layer in which they are present (mid afternoon).

   ..Smith.. 11/15/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018/

   ...Eastern NC...
   Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.  Latest
   surface analysis shows a deepening surface low just off the NC coast
   near Cape Fear, with a warm front extending eastward out to sea. 
   Several significant supercells are noted on radar along this
   boundary.  Observational trends suggest that destabilization over
   eastern NC is occurring slightly slower than anticipated due to this
   widespread convection.  The back edge of the convection is also
   progressing eastward faster than guidance.  Present indications are
   that the Outer Banks and coastal counties of far eastern NC may be
   briefly in the warm sector this afternoon.  If this occurs, very
   strong low-level shear will pose a threat of damaging wind gusts and
   perhaps a tornado in any persistent convective core.  However, the
   area and time period of potential is decreasing.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z