Dec 9, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Dec 9 00:49:13 UTC 2022 (20221209 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20221209 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20221209 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20221209 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20221209 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20221209 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 090049

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0649 PM CST Thu Dec 08 2022

   Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Friday.

   ...01z Update...

   Large-scale pattern will not change appreciably into the day2
   period, as a dominant upper ridge will remain anchored over the Gulf
   of Mexico. This feature will continue to deflect more significant
   short waves across the southern Rockies into the middle of the
   country, then into the OH Valley, where their influence will be
   mostly well north of potentially buoyant air. While a flash or two
   of lightning can not be ruled out ahead of a short-wave trough over
   the mid MS Valley this evening, the primary risk for an isolated
   thunderstorm continues near the frontal zone from north-central TX
   into the western TN Valley. 00z soundings along/south of the front
   exhibited minimal instability at FWD and SHV where MUCAPE was
   roughly 500-800 J/kg. Warm advection will continue to be the primary
   forcing mechanism for deep convection along this corridor.

   A few flashes of lightning may also be noted with scattered showers
   spreading inland along the WA/OR Coast. This activity is low-topped
   and lightning should remain sparse.

   ..Darrow.. 12/09/2022

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z