Jan 24, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 24 05:35:38 UTC 2022 (20220124 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220124 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220124 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220124 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220124 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220124 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 240535

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1135 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into
   western Louisiana beginning late on Monday.

   ...TX/LA...

   Water-vapor imagery depicts the center of an upper low just south of
   the NM border over northern Mexico, shifting east toward TX in line
   with latest model guidance. This low will open up and deamplify as
   it approaches the lower MS Valley late in the period. In response to
   this feature, a weak surface wave has formed off the south TX coast
   and a low should evolve and track across the northwestern Gulf
   Basin, likely remaining south of the LA coast Monday night. As a
   result, low-level warm advection in advance of the short wave will
   contribute to elevated convection north of the boundary across
   southeast TX into western LA. Some of this activity is expected to
   generate lightning. Forecast soundings are not particularly buoyant
   with the most unstable parcels being lifted well above 850mb much of
   the period.

   ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/24/2022

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z