Nov 17, 2018 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Nov 17 16:12:05 UTC 2018 (20181117 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20181117 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20181117 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20181117 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20181117 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20181117 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 171612

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1012 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

   Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight across the
   contiguous United States.

   ...Synopsis/Forecast...
   Prevalent cyclonic upper-level flow over the CONUS in conjunction
   with high pressure and cold/stable conditions east of the Rockies
   will largely preclude deeper convection across the Lower 48. One
   exception may be across far south TX. While ascent within the warm
   sector will be weak, it still appears that thermodynamic profiles
   will become marginally conducive for thunderstorms late
   tonight/early Sunday across the middle/lower TX coastal plain, near
   and ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front.

   ..Guyer/Wendt.. 11/17/2018

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z