Sep 15, 2019 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Sep 15 05:07:24 UTC 2019 (20190915 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190915 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190915 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20190915 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20190915 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20190915 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 150507

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1207 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S.
   today.

   ...Synopsis...

   The upper level pattern over the U.S. will become more amplified
   today. A deepening upper trough will move southeast to the Pacific
   Northwest coast. In response, an upper ridge will build over the
   Plains today, while shifting eastward toward the Mississippi Valley
   by Monday morning. Further east, a shortwave trough over the upper
   Great Lakes will progress east, overspreading the northeastern
   states by the end of the period.  

   Thunderstorms should be ongoing along a cold front attendant to the
   Great Lakes upper shortwave trough from northern IL/IN into lower
   MI. This activity will be elevated and is expected to remain
   sub-severe through the afternoon as the downstream environment will
   not be conducive to intense convection.  While moisture will stream
   northward across the Plains today beneath the amplifying upper
   ridge, limited forcing and capping will preclude thunderstorm
   activity.  Further west, a weak mid/upper level low over southern
   AZ/NM will drift northward while weakening. Still, this feature will
   provide support for diurnally driven thunderstorms across the Four
   Corners region. Weak deep layer shear and modest instability will
   preclude organized/long-lived convection, though a dry boundary
   layer could result in some gusty outflow winds with the strongest
   cells. Additional thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the
   central and western Gulf coasts as a weak low migrates westward
   across the Gulf of Mexico. Further east, the National Hurricane
   Center forecast keeps Tropical Storm Humberto well offshore from FL,
   though isolated thunderstorms are possible in areas of convergent
   low level flow from FL through the eastern Carolinas.

   ..Leitman/Dean.. 09/15/2019

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z