Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 300523
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 AM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected across much of
west Texas into extreme southeast New Mexico. Large hail and locally
damaging winds are possible.
...Southern Plains/West TX...
An upper trough is currently located over AZ/northwest Mexico. This
feature is forecast to advance slowly east during the day1 period as
500mb flow gradually increases within the base of the trough into
far west TX during the evening hours. This evolution will encourage
surface pressures in the lee of the southern Rockies to rise,
ultimately driving a cold front across the TX South Plains into the
Big Bend region. Prefrontal boundary-layer heating will be strongest
just ahead of the wind shift which should allow for substantial
destabilization as stronger flow aloft overspreads the western
fringe of moisture/instability by early afternoon. NAM forecast
sounding for B43 (far west TX) suggests surface parcels will be
uninhibited by 19z. Thunderstorms should initiate easily over the
higher terrain where deep-layer flow will support at least organized
multicell updrafts, and perhaps a few supercells. This activity
should slowly propagate east during the day and by 01/00z, NAM
forecast sounding at MAF exhibits MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg with
minimal CINH. 850mb southeasterly inflow is expected to remain
focused across the Rio Grande Valley into the TX South Plains which
should ensure favorably moist trajectories into what most likely
will be a significant amount of convection. A southwest-northeast
corridor of strong/severe thunderstorms should evolve along/ahead of
the southward-moving cold front from midday into the overnight
hours. Hail and some wind are the main threats.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/30/2021
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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