SPC AC 041715

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 04 2023

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Monday across
   western portions of Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Both occasional
   damaging winds and hail appear possible.

   ...Synopsis...
   An expansive anticyclone is forecast to remain centered near the
   southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba border throughout the day Monday,
   with its influence stretching through the Upper Midwest into the
   northern and central Plains. Upper troughing is anticipated east of
   this anticyclone, extending from Quebec through the Northeast into
   the Mid-Atlantic. A shortwave trough is expected to move through
   this troughing, from the Lower Great Lakes region across the
   Mid/Upper OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. A pair of upper lows
   are anticipated west of the anticyclone, one over British Columbia
   and the other just off the southern CA Coast. 

   The surface pattern will likely be void of any well-defined
   features, with generally modest winds across much of the central and
   eastern CONUS. The only exception in across the High Plains in the
   vicinity of the lee trough. Somewhat stronger flow is possible from
   southern CA into NV and western AZ. 

   Low-level moisture will remain within the southern and western
   periphery of the surface ridging, i.e. from the Southeast across the
   Lower MS Valley and into the southern and central Plains. Scattered
   to numerous thunderstorms are forecast during the afternoon and
   evening in these areas, but weak shear should foster a mainly
   multicellular mode across the majority of the region, limiting the
   severe potential.

   ...Carolinas and Northeast GA...
   The best overlap between buoyancy, moderate flow aloft, and forcing
   for ascent is anticipated from the western Carolinas into northeast
   GA, ahead of the subtle shortwave trough. A mix of multicells and
   perhaps a marginal supercell or two appears possible, with a
   corresponding risk for isolated hail and damaging winds. This
   activity should generally spread southeastward through early Monday
   evening before weakening.

   ...Central ID into western MT...
   With the region oriented between the anticyclone to its east and
   upper troughing across British Columbia, slightly stronger mid-level
   flow is anticipated from central/eastern ID into western MT on
   Monday. Modest buoyancy is anticipated as well, with
   afternoon/evening thunderstorms expected. Given the slightly
   stronger mid-level flow, potential exists for a strong storm or two.
   However, the overall severe threat will be mitigated by the limited
   buoyancy.

   ...Northern CA/Southern OR...
   High-based thunderstorms will likely move westward across the region
   throughout the afternoon and evening, fostered by increased
   mid-level moisture and orographically enhanced ascent. Shear will be
   weak, but the high-based character of these storms amid the
   well-mixed boundary layer may result in a few strong downbursts,
   particularly over lower elevations.

   ..Mosier.. 06/04/2023

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