SPC AC 100600
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KS...NORTHEAST OK...SOUTHWEST MO...NORTHWEST AR...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and
southern Plains and Ozark Plateau on Saturday. A few strong storms
are also possible over the coastal Mid-Atlantic and New England.
An upper ridge is forecast to remain in place from the Southwest
into the Southern Plains on Saturday, while an upper trough remains
over much of the East. T.C. Fay is expected to be inland over New
England at the start of the period Saturday morning and its remnant
circulation is forecast to move quickly north-northeastward into
Canada during the day (refer to NHC forecasts for more information).
Further west, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to move from
the Ohio Valley into New England by Sunday morning, with additional
lower-amplitude shortwave troughs likely to be embedded within broad
northwesterly mid/upper-level flow from the northern Plains into the
...Southern/central Plains into the Ozark Plateau...
Elevated convection, possibly in the form of a
southeastward-propagating MCS, will likely be ongoing at the start
of the period somewhere from the mid-MO Valley into the Ozark
Plateau. Any such convection would pose a threat for damaging wind
and perhaps some hail, given the presence of ample MUCAPE and
sufficient effective shear. The severe threat into the
afternoon/evening will be strongly influenced by how any morning
convection and related outflow boundaries evolve during the day.
These details remain highly uncertain, but a conditionally favorable
environment characterized by strong instability and moderate
effective shear will likely evolve by late afternoon somewhere in
the vicinity of any remnant boundary.
The greatest relative risk currently appears to be across eastern
KS/northeast OK/southwest MO/northwest AR, where multiple scenarios,
including an early-day MCS and/or redevelopment along a remnant
boundary during the afternoon/evening, will be possible.
Accordingly, a Slight Risk has been introduced for this region.
...Northern Mid Atlantic into New England...
While T.C. Fay is forecast to move quickly into Canada sometime
Saturday morning, rich low-level moisture and modestly enhanced
low/mid-level flow will likely remain in its wake from the northern
Mid Atlantic into portions of New England, in advance of the
shortwave trough moving eastward from the OH Valley. Renewed
convective development is expected by late morning/early afternoon,
with the strongest storms capable of localized wind damage.
...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Coastal Carolinas...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening
from southern portions of the Mid Atlantic into coastal regions of
NC/SC. Midlevel flow of 20-30 kt may support weakly organized
updrafts, and locally damaging wind may be possible with the
strongest storms, though confidence remains too low at this time to
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