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Nov 4, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Nov 4 17:26:35 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20241104 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20241104 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 041726

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1126 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE
   TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF WISCONSIN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur on Tuesday
   across a portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys, and
   central to southern Wisconsin.

   ...Synopsis...

   A compact upper shortwave trough will shift northeast across the
   Middle and Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity on
   Tuesday. As the same time, another upper trough over the northern
   Rockies will dig south/southeast through the period, maintaining
   broad upper troughing over the West and into the Plains. Moderate to
   strong deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with the initial
   shortwave trough over the MS Valley will overspread east TX to the
   Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure initially over northeast
   KS/northwest MO/southeast NE will lift northeast into southern
   Ontario by Wednesday morning. A cold front/composite outflow will
   extend from the Mid-MS Valley into east TX and the TX Gulf Coast
   vicinity. This boundary will slowly shift east through the period.
   Meanwhile, a warm front will be draped across the upper Great Lakes
   vicinity. Strong mid/upper level flow and these low-level boundaries
   and surface low will focus some potential for strong thunderstorms
   on Tuesday, mainly over WI and parts of southeast Texas to the Lower
   MS. 

   ...East TX/Lower MS Valley...

   Convection will be ongoing Tuesday morning across east TX toward the
   TX coast as a cold front slowly progresses east. A corridor of
   modest instability will be in place ahead of the front from the TX
   coast/Sabine Valley into LA. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to
   remain poor. However, a moist boundary-layer (dewpoints in the low
   70s F) and moderate low-level and deep-layer shear will support
   organized convection. Forecast soundings indicate enlarged, looping
   hodographs, becoming elongated above 3 km. This suggests rotation
   may accompany convection, and a tornado or two will be possible,
   particularly across parts of LA into southwest AR where low-level
   shear will be somewhat more favorable compared to points further
   south near the TX coast. Otherwise, line segments and cells may also
   produce locally strong gusts. The severe risk should move offshore
   the TX coast by around midday/early afternoon, while persisting
   through the afternoon to early evening further north across LA and
   the southeast AR vicinity. Overall, severe risk should be tempered
   by poor lapse rates and only modest destabilization, along with
   generally weak large-scale ascent further removed from the ejecting
   upper shortwave trough.

   ...WI...

   Warm advection ahead of the surface low/cold front moving from IA
   into WI will result in showers/thunderstorms and widespread cloud
   cover through the morning. This will limit diurnal heating, through
   forecast soundings suggest some areas could warm into the mid 50s to
   near 60 F by mid afternoon. This could allow for weak
   destabilization, though may be ill-timed as low-level winds begin to
   veer with time. While this lends to uncertainty in severe potential,
   at least a low-end/conditional risk for a tornado or two, or locally
   strong gusts appears possible.

   ..Leitman.. 11/04/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

        
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Page last modified: November 04, 2024
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