SPC AC 041715
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 04 2023
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Monday across
western portions of Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Both occasional
damaging winds and hail appear possible.
...Synopsis...
An expansive anticyclone is forecast to remain centered near the
southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba border throughout the day Monday,
with its influence stretching through the Upper Midwest into the
northern and central Plains. Upper troughing is anticipated east of
this anticyclone, extending from Quebec through the Northeast into
the Mid-Atlantic. A shortwave trough is expected to move through
this troughing, from the Lower Great Lakes region across the
Mid/Upper OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. A pair of upper lows
are anticipated west of the anticyclone, one over British Columbia
and the other just off the southern CA Coast.
The surface pattern will likely be void of any well-defined
features, with generally modest winds across much of the central and
eastern CONUS. The only exception in across the High Plains in the
vicinity of the lee trough. Somewhat stronger flow is possible from
southern CA into NV and western AZ.
Low-level moisture will remain within the southern and western
periphery of the surface ridging, i.e. from the Southeast across the
Lower MS Valley and into the southern and central Plains. Scattered
to numerous thunderstorms are forecast during the afternoon and
evening in these areas, but weak shear should foster a mainly
multicellular mode across the majority of the region, limiting the
severe potential.
...Carolinas and Northeast GA...
The best overlap between buoyancy, moderate flow aloft, and forcing
for ascent is anticipated from the western Carolinas into northeast
GA, ahead of the subtle shortwave trough. A mix of multicells and
perhaps a marginal supercell or two appears possible, with a
corresponding risk for isolated hail and damaging winds. This
activity should generally spread southeastward through early Monday
evening before weakening.
...Central ID into western MT...
With the region oriented between the anticyclone to its east and
upper troughing across British Columbia, slightly stronger mid-level
flow is anticipated from central/eastern ID into western MT on
Monday. Modest buoyancy is anticipated as well, with
afternoon/evening thunderstorms expected. Given the slightly
stronger mid-level flow, potential exists for a strong storm or two.
However, the overall severe threat will be mitigated by the limited
buoyancy.
...Northern CA/Southern OR...
High-based thunderstorms will likely move westward across the region
throughout the afternoon and evening, fostered by increased
mid-level moisture and orographically enhanced ascent. Shear will be
weak, but the high-based character of these storms amid the
well-mixed boundary layer may result in a few strong downbursts,
particularly over lower elevations.
..Mosier.. 06/04/2023
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
|