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Jan 20, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 20 17:20:40 UTC 2022 (Print Version | 20220120 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220120 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 201720

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1120 AM CST Thu Jan 20 2022

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across
   parts of the southern Florida Peninsula. Occasional damaging wind
   gusts and marginally severe hail appear possible.

   ...South Florida...

   A positively tilted upper trough from the lower Great Lakes to south
   TX will pivot east/northeast through the period. Neutral to small
   height falls are expected over the Florida Peninsula, with stronger
   forcing for ascent remaining well north of the area. At the surface,
   a cold front will slowly progress south across central FL through
   Friday afternoon, becoming positioned across far south FL by 12z
   Saturday. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s will reside ahead of the
   front, though heating will be somewhat limited by cloud cover and
   showers. Midlevel cooling also is expected to be weak, and midlevel
   lapse rates around 6.5-7 C/km are common in forecast soundings. As a
   result, destabilization will be modest, with less than 1000 J/kg
   MLCAPE forecast. 

   Low-level shear will remain weak, with poor frontal convergence.
   However, southwesterly midlevel flow may increase modestly during
   the afternoon and effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt are
   possible. Most forecast guidance indicates a pre-frontal cluster of
   thunderstorms developing mainly south of Lake Okeechobee during the
   afternoon. Some locally strong gusts will be possible if any better
   organized clusters develop. Additionally, rather straight, elongated
   forecast hodographs above 2 km are evident and combined with modest
   lapse rates could support marginally severe hail in any better
   organized/longer-lived cells.

   ..Leitman.. 01/20/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

        
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Page last modified: January 20, 2022
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