SPC AC 161700

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday.

   ...Discussion...
   A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur
   on Monday. 

   In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple
   embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across
   parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall
   amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool
   mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating
   should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped
   convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA,
   where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon.
   Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north
   of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds
   are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere
   in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated.

   Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is
   apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a
   post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp
   gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer
   heating.

   ..Grams.. 03/16/2025

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