SPC AC 041725

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1125 AM CST Tue Jan 04 2022

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms may occur over far eastern North Carolina on
   Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
   continental United States.

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to stretch across the CONUS
   early Wednesday, with a belt of enhanced flow aloft extending from
   the Pacific Northwest southwestward into the central Plains then
   eastward across the Mid MS and Lower OH Valley before transitioning
   back northeastward from the Middle OH Valley into the Northeast.
   Strongest flow within this corridor will exist from the central
   Plains through the OH Valley, at the base of a shortwave trough
   centered over the Upper Midwest. This shortwave is expected to
   progress northeastward southern Ontario/southern Quebec, with jet
   streak moving northeastward across the Northeast. 

   At the surface, an occluded low associated with the Upper Midwest
   shortwave trough will begin the period centered over the Upper Great
   Lakes before tracking northeastward throughout the day and
   overnight. As this low moves northeastward, an attendant cold front
   will push eastward/southeastward across much of the eastern CONUS.
   Limited air mass modification is expected ahead of this front,
   precluding instability and thunderstorms. The only exception is
   across coastal NC, where pre-frontal confluence amid returning
   low-level moisture may contribute to a few thunderstorms. Deep-layer
   shear is strong enough to support organized storms, but the limited
   overlap between any buoyancy and vertical shear tempers the overall
   severe risk, keeping severe probabilities below 5% with this
   outlook.

   An isolated flash or two is also possible across the Lower MS
   Valley/Mid-South, ahead of a surface low expected to develop across
   east TX Wednesday afternoon before then moving northeastward into
   northern LA. Thunderstorm coverage is currently expected to be below
   10%.

   ..Mosier.. 01/04/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z