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Jun 25, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 25 17:12:07 UTC 2022 (Print Version | 20220625 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220625 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 251712

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1212 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
   NORTHERN ALABAMA NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of far northern Alabama into
   the lower Great Lakes region late Sunday afternoon and evening,
   posing at least some risk for potentially damaging wind gusts.

   ...Discussion...

   The broad subtropical ridge across the eastern United States will
   flatten on Sunday as a short-wave trough moves across southern
   Canada. This trough will drive a cooler, drier airmass south across
   the eastern US. Convergence along and near the leading edge of this
   airmass will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms anywhere
   from the southern High Plains northeast into the eastern Great
   Lakes. 

   Despite surface dewpoints around 70 F along and ahead of the surface
   cold front, poor mid-level lapse rates should limit CAPE to around
   1000-1500 J/kg. Additionally, the stronger mid-level flow should
   remain across Canada, limiting both deep-layer and effective-layer
   shear. This combination of seasonally-poor instability and weak
   effective-layer shear should limit the synoptically-driven severe
   threat. However, precipitable water values approaching 2" along and
   ahead of the front may result in a storm-scale driven wet
   microbursts from water loading of the updrafts. The most likely area
   for this appears to be from northeast Alabama into western New York,
   and a marginal risk is maintained/expanded for this potential.

   ..Marsh.. 06/25/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: June 25, 2022
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