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May 22, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 22 17:30:19 UTC 2022 (Print Version | 20220522 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220522 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 221730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
   NM INTO PARTS OF WEST/CENTRAL TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon into Monday
   night across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail, severe
   wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes possible. Storms capable of
   isolated damaging wind are possible across parts of the Southeast.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the south-central
   CONUS on Monday, as multiple embedded vorticity maxima move through
   the southern Rockies into the central/southern Plains. A surface low
   is expected to deepen across eastern NM, as a warm front moves
   northward across Texas. Further east, a convectively enhanced
   midlevel trough is forecast to move from the northern Gulf of Mexico
   into part of the Southeast by Monday evening.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Widespread convection is expected across the southern Plains through
   the forecast period, as low-level moisture returns in conjunction
   with the northward-moving warm front, and the upper-level trough
   amplifies over the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support
   moderate buoyancy across far eastern NM into west TX, and scattered
   thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon along/east
   of the dryline. Low-level southeasterly flow veering to westerly
   aloft will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for
   organized convection. A few supercells will be possible with initial
   development, posing a threat of large hail and perhaps a tornado or
   two. Upscale growth into one more clusters is expected with time,
   resulting in a transition toward more of a severe wind risk. 

   Further east into parts of central TX, convective evolution through
   the period is more uncertain. Elevated convection may develop or be
   ongoing near/north of the warm front during the morning, posing an
   isolated severe risk. Renewed development is possible near the warm
   front during the afternoon and evening, with a continued threat of
   at least isolated severe hail/wind. Depending on the amount of
   convective overturning during the day, one or more complexes of
   storms could move in from the west late Monday night, with a
   continued severe wind threat. The aggregate threat still supports a
   Slight Risk in this region, though confidence in the details is not
   high.  

   ...Southeast...
   Widespread convection is again expected from the northern Gulf of
   Mexico into portions of the Southeast, associated with the midlevel
   trough that is forecast to move slowly northeastward through the
   period. Deep-layer southwesterly flow east of the trough axis may be
   sufficient to support some modestly organized storm clusters.
   Locally damaging wind gusts will be a threat with the strongest
   storms, though some hail is also possible depending on the extent of
   destabilization that can occur.

   ..Dean.. 05/22/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: May 22, 2022
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