SPC AC 261730
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of Florida Tuesday
into Tuesday night, in association with Hurricane Ian.
Large-scale upper troughing will continue over eastern NOAM Tuesday,
while a second low/trough over the northeastern Pacific gradually
approaches the Pacific Northwest. In between, expansive ridging
will extend from Texas and the Desert Southwest northward across the
Rockies and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces.
At the surface, a cold front will remain roughly in place from the
southeastern U.S. Atlantic Coast, west-southwestward along the Gulf
Coast vicinity. To the south, Hurricane Ian is progged to be
shifting slowly northward into/across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
through the period. Please refer to the latest forecasts regarding
Ian from the National Hurricane Center.
As Ian moves slowly northward, the low-level flow across the Florida
Peninsula south of the aforementioned cold front -- particularly
across west-central and southwestern Florida -- will increase with
time. Widespread convection surrounding Ian will overspread the
area from south to north, with embedded cellular convection within
bands surrounding the center of circulation.
As the inland wind field gradually strengthens, potential for
rotating cells will likewise increase, along with associated tornado
potential. This risk may increase through the afternoon, and
continue into the overnight hours as the storm gradually shifts
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z