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Aug 26, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Aug 26 05:46:13 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190826 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20190826 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 260546

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1246 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
   TEXAS/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from northwest
   Texas/southwest Oklahoma southeastward into western Louisiana on
   Tuesday.

   ...Synopsis...
   Maturing mid-latitude cyclone, centered near the southern
   Manitoba/Ontario border early Tuesday morning, is expected continue
   eastward into far northwest Ontario. Expansive cyclonic flow
   throughout the base of this system (and attendant enhanced westerly
   flow aloft) will also progress eastward over the upper/middle MS
   Valleys into the OH Valley.

   Surface low attendant to this upper system is expected to be
   centered over northwestern Ontario Tuesday morning. A cold front
   will extend southeastward from this low into the Upper Great Lakes
   then southwestward through the middle MS Valley into southwest TX.
   Northern/eastern portion of this front will remain progressive,
   continuing eastward through the OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes.
   Southern/western portion of this front will be less progressive with
   outflow from an MCS likely becoming the effective boundary across
   southern OK/northern TX. 

   ...Far Northwest TX/Southeast OK into Western LA...
   Showers and thunderstorm will likely be ongoing at the beginning of
   the period as a decaying MCS moves into the region. Isolated
   damaging wind gusts are possible with the strongest cells along the
   outflow boundary.

   Warm and moist conditions are anticipated south of the composite
   outflow boundary Tuesday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be
   relatively warm, but the warm and moist low-levels will likely
   result in an erosion of any convective inhibition. Convergence along
   the boundary will then lead to thunderstorm development. However,
   given the mesoscale nature of this boundary, its location is hard to
   ascertain with much confidence at this point. Most of the
   convection-allowing guidance suggests a more southerly boundary
   location during the afternoon and the 5% threat area was adjusted
   accordingly.

   The lack of stronger vertical shear suggests minimal storm
   organization and a predominantly multicellular mode. Even so, strong
   water-loaded downbursts are possible with the strongest updrafts. 

   ...Upper Midwest...
   A shortwave trough embedded within the base of the larger parent
   mid-latitude cyclone is expected to move into the region during the
   afternoon. Cool mid-level temperatures and large-scale forcing for
   ascent associated with this trough will led to thunderstorm
   development. Given the weak instability, storms are generally
   expected to remain sub-severe with some small hail possible within
   the strongest updrafts.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
   Wind:      5%     - Marginal
   Hail:      5%     - Marginal

   ..Mosier.. 08/26/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: August 26, 2019
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