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Feb 20, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Feb 20 17:18:48 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190220 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20190220 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 201718

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1118 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk of severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
   Thursday through Thursday night.

   ...Gulf Coast states to Southeast Atlantic coast...

   Instability will remain scant across the region as weak Gulf
   moisture advects northward beneath strong mid/upper level ridge. A
   stalled cold front will drape southwest to northeast across the
   region, resulting in mainly anafrontal precipitation processes.
   Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of the
   front, but strong convection is not expected for the most part. 

   There may be a narrow/brief corridor for greater thunderstorm
   coverage and possibly a strong storm in the warm sector during the
   afternoon from southeast AL into southwest/central GA. This is
   largely dependent on how much surface heating, and resultant
   destabilization, occurs. Effective shear profiles could support a
   briefly organized storm capable of gusty winds, but low probability
   nature of the threat will preclude addition of probs at this time. 

   Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms will be possible across southern CA
   into southwest AZ.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:     <5%     - None
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Leitman.. 02/20/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

        
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Page last modified: February 20, 2019
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