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Aug 3, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Aug 3 17:30:37 UTC 2021 (Print Version | 20210803 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20210803 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 031730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Tue Aug 03 2021

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
   NORTH CAROLINA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A severe storm or two capable of a tornado will be possible over
   coastal North Carolina mainly Wednesday morning.

   ...Eastern NC...

   A stalled front should be situated just inland of the NC coast early
   Wednesday. A surface low is forecast to develop along this boundary
   in response to an impulse moving northeast through the base of the
   synoptic trough. The NAM is the most aggressive with the surface low
   development and moves it northeast through eastern NC during the
   morning. A moist warm sector will spread inland, but instability
   will remain very marginal due to widespread clouds and poor lapse
   rates. Low-level shear profiles may become sufficient for a threat
   of low-level mesocyclones and perhaps a tornado with any
   surface-based storms developing in the warm sector. However, the
   weak thermodynamic environment and uncertainty regarding the
   strength and evolution of the surface low precludes more than a MRGL
   risk category.

   ...Cape Cod...

   Potential exists for a warm front to move inland toward the end of
   the period very late Wednesday night accompanied by increasing
   low-level shear and weak instability. NAM is the most aggressive
   with other models indicating this boundary remains offshore. A
   conditional severe threat will exist very late Wednesday, but
   confidence is too low at the current time to introduce severe
   probabilities. 

   ...Western through central Montana...

   A compact shortwave trough will move east southeast along the
   international border and into far northwest MT during the afternoon.
   Moisture will remain limited in this region with boundary layer
   dewpoints mixing down to the 40s F within a steep lapse rate
   environment supporting MLCAPE from 400-800 J/kg during the
   afternoon. Isolated high-based storms are expected to develop over
   the mountains and spread southeast. A few of these storms may become
   capable of producing downburst winds. However, coverage of any such
   events should remain sparse.

   ..Dial.. 08/03/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: August 03, 2021
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