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Oct 21, 2018 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Oct 21 05:06:51 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20181021 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20181021 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 210506

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1206 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered thunderstorms are expected Monday over much of the Great
   Basin and Arizona, with more isolated activity across southern
   Texas.

   ...Synopsis...
   A weak area of cyclonic flow aloft will move southward across
   northern Baja CA with midlevel southwesterly winds on the order of
   30 kt into the Four Corners. Cool air aloft will combine with the
   presence of midlevel moisture to aid the development of scattered
   thunderstorms, from eastern NV across UT and into AZ. Hodographs may
   be sufficiently long to support a few cells capable of small hail,
   but the severe weather risk appears low at this time.

   To the east, a weak disturbance will cross the Rio Grande into south
   TX, with an increase in low-level warm advection. This will result
   in weak elevated instability over southern TX, while a cool air mass
   remains at the surface. Forecast soundings indicate sufficient
   instability aloft to support a few lightning strikes within the
   broader zone of precipitation.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:     <5%     - None
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Jewell.. 10/21/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: October 21, 2018
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