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Dec 7, 2019 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Dec 7 06:34:31 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20191207 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20191207 0700Z Day 2 KML)
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   SPC AC 070634

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1234 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2019

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move across the
   northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains on Sunday. At the
   same time, a low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough will
   eject quickly in northern portions of the southern Plains while
   another more amplified shortwave trough moves southward across CA.
   As a result of this evolution, the overall upper pattern is expected
   to undergo substantial deepening and by early Monday morning upper
   troughing will likely extend from the Hudson Bay southwestward
   through southern CA.

   Surface pattern early Sunday will likely feature lee troughing
   across the High Plains and high pressure along the East Coast.
   Cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains with the
   resulting low moving across northern OK overnight Sunday and into
   Monday morning. Modest moisture return is anticipated from the TX
   Coastal Plain into the Arklatex, although warm temperatures aloft
   should preclude deep convection. 

   Three different regions have some potential for isolated
   thunderstorms. The first is from central CA into the Great Basin
   where cold mid-level temperatures will support modest instability
   amidst persistent forcing for ascent. Thunderstorm coverage in this
   area is expected to be over 10%, which merits delineation of a
   general thunder areas. 

   The second area is across the mid MS Valley where gradually
   increasing mid-level moisture and persistent forcing for ascent may
   result in a few updrafts deep enough to support lightning. However,
   coverage is currently expected to remain less than 10%. 

   The last area is along the Carolina coast where returning low-level
   moisture will help support modest instability. Low-level confluence
   within this moist environment will result in showers but updrafts
   are currently expected to remain too shallow for charge separation
   and lightning production.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:     <5%     - None
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Mosier.. 12/07/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: December 07, 2019
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