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May 21, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 21 17:30:02 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240521 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20240521 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 211730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
   TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ACROSS THE OZARKS AND TOWARD THE
   MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for damaging gusts and hail will
   be possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley and lower Great
   Lakes area on Wednesday. The greatest threat of damaging hail and
   wind is forecast from north Texas across the Ozarks.

   ...Synopsis...
   A broad zone of moderate to strong southwest flow will stretch from
   the Plains to the Great Lakes, with the primary shortwave trough
   affecting the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes through 00Z. This wave
   will eject northeastward into Ontario and Quebec thereafter, with
   various convectively enhanced disturbances trailing southwestward
   within the southwest flow toward Texas.

   At the surface, low pressure near Lake Superior early Wednesday will
   fill as it occludes into Ontario, with a cold front roughly from
   lower MI into southern MO and into northwest TX by midday. Ahead of
   this front, ample moisture will exist from TX into the lower OH
   Valley, with various rounds of severe thunderstorms throughout the
   period.

   ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid South...
   Severe regimes are forecast on both sides of the synoptic front,
   beginning early on Wednesday.

   Scattered storms are expected early Wednesday morning over parts of
   OK, and expanding into southern MO. Here, forecast soundings show
   extreme elevated instability, along with very favorable hodographs
   supporting splitting elevated hail storms. Northeast winds north of
   the front beneath moderate southwest flow will result in lengthy
   hodographs and good effective-layer storm relative inflow. While the
   precise corridor is difficult to place, it will likely be just north
   of the surface front, with potential swaths of significant damaging
   hail. 

   Western portions of the front into northwest TX will also favor
   relatively early development, with steep lapse rates aloft and
   lengthy hodographs again favoring damaging hail. As heating occurs
   ahead of the boundary, additional storms will develop across
   northern TX, producing damaging hail and areas of damaging winds. A
   couple tornadoes will be possible, especially if the boundary
   briefly stalls or robust cells develop along old outflows. Given
   that the boundary is roughly parallel to the flow aloft, a prolonged
   splitting hail storm event will be possible, from the Red River
   region across the Ozarks.

   Additional clusters of storms are likely to develop and translate
   south/southeast across AR and into western TN/MS where ample
   moisture and instability will favor areas of damaging wind and hail.

   ...OH Valley into PA/NY...
   Although the region will be well ahead of the main upper wave,
   gradual height falls are forecast to occur atop the moistening air
   mass ahead of the cold front. Strong heating will lead to an
   uncapped air mass, with weak but sufficient lift timed with peak
   heating.  Scattered cells are forecast from the OH River toward the
   southern shores of Lakes Erie and Ontario by around 21Z, and modest
   veering with height may support a few longer lived cells capable of
   hail spreading east.

   ..Jewell.. 05/21/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: May 21, 2024
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