SPC AC 210506
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected Monday over much of the Great
Basin and Arizona, with more isolated activity across southern
A weak area of cyclonic flow aloft will move southward across
northern Baja CA with midlevel southwesterly winds on the order of
30 kt into the Four Corners. Cool air aloft will combine with the
presence of midlevel moisture to aid the development of scattered
thunderstorms, from eastern NV across UT and into AZ. Hodographs may
be sufficiently long to support a few cells capable of small hail,
but the severe weather risk appears low at this time.
To the east, a weak disturbance will cross the Rio Grande into south
TX, with an increase in low-level warm advection. This will result
in weak elevated instability over southern TX, while a cool air mass
remains at the surface. Forecast soundings indicate sufficient
instability aloft to support a few lightning strikes within the
broader zone of precipitation.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: <2% - None
Wind: <5% - None
Hail: <5% - None
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z