SPC AC 221734

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1234 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
   EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms capable of hail, some very large, are possible
   Thursday afternoon through Friday morning across parts of the
   southern Great Plains.

   ...Southern Great Plains into the mid MS Valley...
   Models show a strong upper jet centered over the Great Lakes and
   moving to the Northeast during the period.  A frontal zone will sag
   southward across parts of the lower MO Valley and OK during the day
   before stalling during the late afternoon.  Southerly low-level flow
   will maintain a persistent fetch of a seasonably moisture-rich air
   across the southern Great Plains, featuring mid 60s dewpoints across
   north TX and into southern/central OK south of the boundary. 
   Large-scale troughing located over the Desert Southwest will
   gradually move east and approach the southern High Plains by early
   Friday morning.  Low-level warm-air advection and the front will
   likely aid in storm development of an initially capped airmass. 
   Models indicate moderate buoyancy developing by mid-late afternoon
   with MLCAPE ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg from the western part of the
   Ozark Plateau west-southwestward parts of western north TX.  The
   lack of appreciable cyclogenesis over the Red River Valley will
   likely play a role in limiting both low-level flow (i.e., low-level
   shear) and an overall supercell tornado risk.  However, strong
   deep-layer shear will promote updraft organization with the more
   intense storms and favor a mix mode of supercells and multicellular
   clusters with time.  Large to very large hail is possible with the
   stronger storms.  Additional storms are possible farther south along
   a dryline over parts of the Edwards Plateau during the evening. 
   Upscale growth into one or more convective bands with some lingering
   severe risk will be possible into the overnight hours as the
   activity moves east/southeast to near the north TX I-35 corridor.  

   Farther northeast over MO/IL, weaker buoyancy is progged by model
   guidance.  Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and
   north of the front during the evening.  A couple of stronger storms
   could yield an isolated risk for large hail before convective
   overturning occurs.

   ...Southern Great Lakes...
   Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near a weak surface
   low across northern IL/northern IN early Thursday morning.  Weak
   buoyancy on the northeast periphery of steeper mid-level lapse rates
   may result in a stronger storm or two during the morning.  However,
   the coverage/magnitude of a hail threat precludes low-severe
   probabilities.

   ..Smith.. 03/22/2023

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