SPC AC 180518
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
A few thunderstorms will be possible over a portion of the central
and southern Rockies Tuesday afternoon and evening, deep south
Florida during the day, and the central California coast late
...Central through northern Rockies region...
A northern-stream shortwave trough will advance southeast through
the northern and central High Plains during the day, promoting the
southward advance of a cold front that should extend from the upper
MS Valley southwest into northern NM by Tuesday evening. Very cold
temperatures aloft accompanying the upper trough and diabatic
heating during the day will contribute to very steep lapse rates and
weak instability over the high terrain. This environment might
support a few thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening,
primarily within the evolving, weak post-frontal upslope regime from
southern CO into northern NM.
A front will stall near or just south of the FL Keys Tuesday. A
low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward, along and north
of the front contributing to post-frontal ascent and development of
widespread rain showers. While equilibrium levels and instability
will generally remain unfavorable for thunderstorms, low-level
moisture and instability across deep south FL in closer proximity to
the frontal zone might remain sufficient for a few thunderstorms
within a broader area of showers.
...Central California coast...
A negative-tilt shortwave trough will move onto the central CA
coastal area later Tuesday night accompanied by cooling mid-level
temperatures, steepening mid-level lapse rates and weak instability.
Scattered showers will develop in association with this feature, and
the thermodynamic environment may become at least marginally
supportive of a few lightning strikes.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: <2% - None
Wind: <5% - None
Hail: <5% - None
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z