Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Mar 29, 2020 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 29 05:34:07 UTC 2020 (Print Version | 20200329 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20200329 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 290534

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1234 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN
   LOUISIANA INTO WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts
   of the lower Mississippi Valley during the evening and overnight.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level disturbance will move from AZ/NM eastward during the
   period and reach the OK/AR border by early Tuesday morning.  A
   frontal zone initially in the northern Gulf of Mexico will advance
   northward through parts of TX during the day as a surface low
   develops over west-central TX by early evening.  An inverted surface
   trough will extend northwest through the TX Panhandle into the
   central High Plains during the day.  After dark, a cold front will
   sweep east across much of TX as the surface low develops eastward
   into MS at daybreak Tuesday.  

   ...Southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley...
   Strengthening southerly low-level flow and increasing moisture from
   the northwest Gulf will spread north through TX during the day. 
   Considerable cloud cover will likely limit destabilization across
   east TX within a moist/marginally unstable warm advection zone. 
   Farther west over the TX Panhandle, isolated storms are forecast by
   late afternoon within a northwest-southeast corridor.  Steepening
   tropospheric lapse rates will support a few strong to severe
   thunderstorms potentially capable of a hail/wind risk.  This
   diurnally driven activity will likely weaken by sunset.  Farther
   south over northwest and into central TX, uncertainty remains
   whether a few storms can manage to form during the late afternoon. 
   Wind profiles would support updraft rotation but a paucity of storm
   coverage implied by model convective schemes, casts doubt whether
   more than a storm or two will develop.  

   During the evening into the overnight, increasing mid-level height
   falls will overspread east TX into the lower MS Valley.  Storm
   coverage will likely increase concurrent with a strengthening warm
   conveyor and mid-level DCVA.  Forecast soundings show a relatively
   deep/moist boundary layer with strong deep shear.  The more vigorous
   storms may organize into a few small clusters/bands with an
   accompanying damaging wind hazard being the primary concern near and
   south of the warm front.  This activity will likely spread east
   across the MS River late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

   ..Smith.. 03/29/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 29, 2020
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities