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Jul 1, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 1 05:58:25 UTC 2022 (Print Version | 20220701 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220701 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 010558

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z


   Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing
   damaging winds and marginally severe hail should occur Saturday
   across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Isolated severe
   thunderstorms may also develop across parts of the northern Plains
   and interior Pacific Northwest.

   ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic and Mid Mississippi Valley...
   An upper trough/low over Ontario and Quebec should move slowly
   eastward on Saturday. A belt of enhanced mid-level west-
   southwesterly winds should be present over much of the Northeast
   into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
   progress east-southeastward across these regions through the day.

   Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in coverage and
   intensity Saturday afternoon along/ahead of the front from southern
   New England into VA and vicinity. Even though mid-level lapse rates
   should remain modest, diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass
   will likely support around 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE by late Saturday
   afternoon across these regions.

   Sufficiently strong mid-level flow will be present to foster 35-45
   kt of deep-layer shear. Accordingly, a mix of multicells and
   supercells appears possible. Damaging winds should be the main
   threat, especially as cells congeal into small bowing clusters
   along/ahead of the front. Marginally severe hail also appears
   possible with any supercell that can be sustained.

   Farther west into WV/KY and the mid MS Valley, mid-level flow is
   expected to be weaker. Still, enough instability and marginal
   deep-layer shear should be present along/south of the cold front to
   support loosely organized clusters and isolated damaging winds. Some
   guidance also suggests that remnant outflow from convection that may
   be ongoing Saturday morning across eastern KS into MO may focus
   renewed thunderstorm development across parts of the mid MS Valley
   and vicinity Saturday afternoon.

   ...Northern Plains...
   Upper ridging should extend across much of the Rockies and adjacent
   High Plains on Saturday. Multiple weak mid-level perturbations may
   round the crest of this upper ridge and advance east-southeastward
   across the northern Plains through the period. Given the
   weak/nebulous large-scale forcing aloft, it remains unclear how many
   thunderstorms will develop across this region. Regardless, weak to
   locally moderate instability present along/east of a surface lee
   trough and strong deep-layer shear will support a severe hail/wind
   threat with any convection that can develop.

   With continued uncertainty in overall convective coverage, have
   expanded the Marginal Risk to account for probable high-based
   thunderstorm development off the higher terrain into southeastern
   MT, northeastern WY, and eventually the Dakotas Saturday afternoon
   and evening. Any convection that can persist into ND/SD would
   potentially pose a better severe threat as it encounters greater
   low-level moisture and related instability.

   ...Pacific Northwest...
   A closed upper cyclone should remain centered off the coast of the
   Pacific Northwest on Saturday. A mid-level perturbation is forecast
   to move northeastward across northern CA into the interior Pacific
   Northwest through the period. High-based convection should initially
   develop over the Cascades in central OR as ascent preceding the
   mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region.

   Even though low-level moisture is expected to remain limited, steep
   mid-level lapse rates and a deeply mixed boundary layer should aid
   convective downdrafts reaching near-severe levels as thunderstorms
   spread generally northeastward though the early evening. Isolated,
   marginally severe hail may also occur with the strongest cores.

   ..Gleason.. 07/01/2022



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