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Sep 19, 2018 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 19 06:00:11 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180919 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20180919 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 190600

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA AND
   SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms will be possible Thursday from portions of the central
   Plains northeastward to the Upper Great Lakes region.

   ...Synopsis...
   While a ridge aloft persists over the eastern U.S., eastward
   progression of a trough out of the Rockies and across the central
   U.S. is expected Thursday.  At the surface, the progression of this
   trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone, progged to shift
   northeast out of the Plains and across the Upper Great Lakes through
   the second half of the period.  A trailing cold front should focus a
   band of strong/locally severe storms, peaking in coverage and
   intensity in the late afternoon and evening hours.

   ...Parts of Kansas northeast into the Upper Great Lakes...
   Surface low pressure initially over the central Plains is expected
   to deepen with time as it shifts northeastward across the Upper
   Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes area.  As this occurs,
   diurnal heating ahead of the low -- and trailing cold front -- will
   result in afternoon destabilization, likely maximized from the upper
   Midwest into the Upper Great Lakes area.  

   As the cold front advances across the central Plains and
   mid-Missouri Valley, scattered afternoon thunderstorms are likely to
   initiate along the cold front.  Upscale growth into a frontal squall
   line is expected to occur through the afternoon, such that by
   evening a fairly solid line of storms should be crossing western
   portions of the risk area.  Here, damaging winds and hail risk is
   expected, given relatively strong flow aloft progged to be spreading
   east ahead of the upper trough.  Across northern portions of the
   risk area -- i.e. central Wisconsin and into southeast Minnesota,
   more isolated storms may persist just ahead of the low and
   eastward-extending warm front.  Here, some risk for tornadoes may
   evolve, along with hail/wind risk.

   As the low continues moving quickly northeastward along with the
   associated warm front through the evening hours, continued eastward
   advance of the cold front -- and associated band of storms -- is
   expected.  Gradual weakening of the storms, and corresponding
   decrease in severe potential, should begin later in the evening as
   the band of storms moves across the upper Mississippi and Mid
   Missouri Valleys.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   5%     - Slight
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:     15%     - Slight

   ..Goss.. 09/19/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: September 19, 2018
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