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Sep 15, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Sep 15 05:00:57 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190915 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20190915 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 150500

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1200 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT
   SALT LAKE VICINITY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong thunderstorms may impact portions of the Great Basin near the
   Great Salt Lake late Monday night, perhaps accompanied by at least
   some risk for potentially damaging wind gusts.

   ...Synopsis...
   Within the westerlies, initially amplified mid-level troughing
   near/inland of the Pacific coast may already be in the process of
   splitting at the outset of the period.  Models indicate that this
   will continue into early Tuesday, as another significant short wave
   trough digs southeast of the Gulf of Alaska, just to the west of the
   British Columbia coast, and downstream ridging builds along an axis
   from the Upper Midwest into areas as far north as western Hudson
   Bay.  It appears that one emerging short wave impulse will gradually
   accelerate north and northeast of the Canadian Rockies, while
   another more vigorous perturbation pivots inland of the Pacific
   coast, into northern portions of the Great Basin by 12Z Tuesday. 
   This latter feature will be preceded by a perturbation emanating
   from the lower latitudes, which may accelerate northeast of the
   Colorado Rockies, toward the eastern Dakotas Monday through Monday
   night.

   East of the ridging, large-scale troughing is forecast to continue
   digging east-southeast of the Canadian Maritimes and north Atlantic
   coast.  An associated cold front may advance southward through the
   lower Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic Coast states and adjacent portions
   of the western Atlantic.  However, it is expected to remain well to
   the north of Humberto, which is forecast to reach hurricane strength
   well east of the Florida coast, while slowly accelerating eastward
   away from the coast.

   Although seasonably high (tropical) moisture content appears likely
   to remain largely confined to the Gulf of Mexico and western
   Atlantic, residual boundary layer moisture, in a corridor along the
   remnant western flank of the cold front across the lower/mid
   Missouri Valley, into deepening surface troughing across the
   northern Plains, may contribute to moderate CAPE with daytime
   heating Monday.  However, at least some combination of weak forcing
   for ascent and mid-level inhibition, associated with a plume of warm
   elevated mixed-layer air advecting northeast of the northern
   Rockies, and across the international border area, is expected to
   limit convective potential.  The development of any appreciable risk
   for severe weather still seems most probable with strong forcing for
   ascent and wind fields/shear associated with the short wave trough
   progressing into the Great Basin Monday night.

   ...Great Salt Lake vicinity...
   In the wake of the lead perturbation (of lower latitude origins),
   boundary layer moisture across western portions of the Great Basin
   may not be supportive of more than very weak CAPE.  However, some
   northward moisture return appears at least possible to the west of
   the Wasatch by late Monday night, ahead of the vigorous approaching
   short wave and associated cold front.  Coupled with strong forcing
   for ascent and mid-level cooling, destabilization may become
   sufficient to support scattered thunderstorm development across the
   Great Salt Lake vicinity by 17/09-12Z, in the presence of
   strengthening (40-70 kt) southwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer.
    This regime may become conducive to the development of potentially
   damaging wind gusts in stronger convection.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:      5%     - Marginal
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Kerr.. 09/15/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: September 15, 2019
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