SPC AC 210522

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1222 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
   NORTHEAST KANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
   IOWA AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail are possible
   from far northeast Kansas across northern Missouri and into far
   southeast Iowa and west-central Illinois late Wednesday evening.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the western CONUS
   early Wednesday morning, with more zonal flow across central and
   eastern CONUS. A belt of strong southwesterly flow aloft will extend
   from the base of the upper trough over southern CA northeastward
   through the central Plains. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will
   move quickly northeastward within this belt of southwesterly flow
   from southern CA through the Four Corners, central Rockies and
   central Plains. A strong jet streak, characterized by 100 kt flow at
   500 mb, will accompany this shortwave. 

   At the surface, robust low-level moisture advection will already be
   underway early Wednesday morning. This moisture advection is
   expected to continue throughout the day amid lowering pressure
   across the central Plains and persistent southerly low-level flow.
   By Wednesday evening, the surface pattern will likely feature a low
   near the central CO/KS border, with a stationary front extending
   eastward from this low to another weaker low over northern MO. Low
   60s dewpoints may reach as far north as the Kansas City vicinity,
   with mid 60s dewpoints remaining farther south across in the
   Arklatex vicinity. 

   Southerly low-level flow will strengthen across OK, KS, and MO
   Wednesday evening, in response to the shortwave moving through NE.
   This will increase warm-air advection across the frontal zone, which
   is expected to result in elevated thunderstorm development from
   northern MO into central IL late Wednesday evening. Steep mid-level
   lapse rates and strong mid-level flow will support robust updrafts
   capable of hail. The severe threat is greatest with the initial
   development during the late evening, but thunderstorms will likely
   persist into Thursday morning eastward/northeastward into more of
   IN, OH, and southern Lower MI.

   ..Mosier.. 03/21/2023

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z