SPC AC 300559

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
   INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from
   central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the
   Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to
   severe winds and hail.

   ...Synopsis...
   A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the
   lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday,
   with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the
   Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged
   to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it
   shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before
   moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight.  A trailing
   cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the
   Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period.

   ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas...
   Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the
   edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely
   scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late
   morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will
   be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley.
   Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great
   Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower
   Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are
   expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates,
   sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging
   winds will be possible.

   Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few
   supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the
   dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is
   weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should
   be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline
   will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of
   steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in
   this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. 

   ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... 
   Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the
   Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would
   likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and
   damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into
   an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the
   period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of
   the D2 period.

   ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z