SPC AC 290534
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN
LOUISIANA INTO WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts
of the lower Mississippi Valley during the evening and overnight.
A mid-level disturbance will move from AZ/NM eastward during the
period and reach the OK/AR border by early Tuesday morning. A
frontal zone initially in the northern Gulf of Mexico will advance
northward through parts of TX during the day as a surface low
develops over west-central TX by early evening. An inverted surface
trough will extend northwest through the TX Panhandle into the
central High Plains during the day. After dark, a cold front will
sweep east across much of TX as the surface low develops eastward
into MS at daybreak Tuesday.
...Southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley...
Strengthening southerly low-level flow and increasing moisture from
the northwest Gulf will spread north through TX during the day.
Considerable cloud cover will likely limit destabilization across
east TX within a moist/marginally unstable warm advection zone.
Farther west over the TX Panhandle, isolated storms are forecast by
late afternoon within a northwest-southeast corridor. Steepening
tropospheric lapse rates will support a few strong to severe
thunderstorms potentially capable of a hail/wind risk. This
diurnally driven activity will likely weaken by sunset. Farther
south over northwest and into central TX, uncertainty remains
whether a few storms can manage to form during the late afternoon.
Wind profiles would support updraft rotation but a paucity of storm
coverage implied by model convective schemes, casts doubt whether
more than a storm or two will develop.
During the evening into the overnight, increasing mid-level height
falls will overspread east TX into the lower MS Valley. Storm
coverage will likely increase concurrent with a strengthening warm
conveyor and mid-level DCVA. Forecast soundings show a relatively
deep/moist boundary layer with strong deep shear. The more vigorous
storms may organize into a few small clusters/bands with an
accompanying damaging wind hazard being the primary concern near and
south of the warm front. This activity will likely spread east
across the MS River late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z