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Mar 18, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 18 05:18:38 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190318 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20190318 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 180518

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1218 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms will be possible over a portion of the central
   and southern Rockies Tuesday afternoon and evening, deep south
   Florida during the day, and the central California coast late
   Tuesday night.

   ...Central through northern Rockies region...

   A northern-stream shortwave trough will advance southeast through
   the northern and central High Plains during the day, promoting the
   southward advance of a cold front that should extend from the upper
   MS Valley southwest into northern NM by Tuesday evening. Very cold
   temperatures aloft accompanying the upper trough and diabatic
   heating during the day will contribute to very steep lapse rates and
   weak instability over the high terrain. This environment might
   support a few thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening,
   primarily within the evolving, weak post-frontal upslope regime from
   southern CO into northern NM.

   ...South Florida...

   A front will stall near or just south of the FL Keys Tuesday. A
   low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward, along and north
   of the front contributing to post-frontal ascent and development of
   widespread rain showers. While equilibrium levels and instability
   will generally remain unfavorable for thunderstorms, low-level
   moisture and instability across deep south FL in closer proximity to
   the frontal zone might remain sufficient for a few thunderstorms
   within a broader area of showers.

   ...Central California coast...

   A negative-tilt shortwave trough will move onto the central CA
   coastal area later Tuesday night accompanied by cooling mid-level
   temperatures, steepening mid-level lapse rates and weak instability.
   Scattered showers will develop in association with this feature, and
   the thermodynamic environment may become at least marginally
   supportive of a few lightning strikes.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:     <5%     - None
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Dial.. 03/18/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: March 18, 2019
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