Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Nov 4, 2018 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 4 05:58:31 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20181104 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20181104 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 040558

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1258 AM CDT Sun Nov 04 2018

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO A PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Numerous severe storms with potential for damaging wind and
   tornadoes are expected Monday evening into the overnight from a
   portion of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio
   Valleys.

   ...Lower Mississippi into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys...

   Only minor adjustments have been made to previous outlook, and
   guidance remains generally consistent. Potential still exists for
   significant severe weather to transpire Monday evening and night,
   mainly from the lower MS Valley into the Tennessee Valley regions.
   Primary zone of cyclogenesis should commence Monday evening over the
   lower MS Valley (northern AR or southern MO) in response to forcing
   for ascent in exit region of a progressive, intense upper jet streak
   located within base of an amplifying shortwave trough. The cyclone
   will deepen as it lifts northeast into the OH Valley Monday night
   with trailing cold front advancing through the TN and lower MS
   valley regions. 

   Latest observations indicate surface winds over the western Gulf
   have shifted to southerly, and this air continues to modify with
   dewpoints already in the low 60s F. Cold front now moving through
   east TX as of early Sunday morning will stall along the Gulf coast,
   allowing the Gulf boundary layer to modify further through Monday.
   Gulf moisture with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will advect rapidly
   northward through the warm sector along a strengthening low level
   jet, contributing to destabilization with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE by
   Monday night, but mid level lapse rates will remain somewhat
   marginal. Mixed storm modes including a squall line and supercells
   are likely to develop along and just ahead of advancing cold front
   by late Monday afternoon, initially over the lower MS Valley, then
   continuing east into the TN and OH Valleys overnight. Impressive
   wind profiles with large 0-1 km hodographs and intense mid-upper jet
   should foster organized storms including embedded bowing segments
   and supercells with low-level mesocyclones capable of mainly
   damaging wind and tornadoes, though some hail will also be possible.
   A moderate risk upgrade might be warranted for a portion of this
   region in later outlooks.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  10% SIG - Enhanced
   Wind:     30% SIG - Enhanced
   Hail:     15%     - Slight

   ..Dial.. 11/04/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: November 04, 2018
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities