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< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Jul 22, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jul 22 05:22:23 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240722 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20240722 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 220522

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1222 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.

   ...Synopsis...

   Upper troughing will continue over the Great Lakes into the
   Mid-South on Tuesday. Some minor increase in mid/upper flow is
   forecast as the trough deepens over the Great Lakes, while the
   subtropical high over the western Atlantic pushes closer to the
   Mid-Atlantic coast. While this will result in some modest increase
   to mid/upper southwesterly flow over the central Appalachians into
   southern New England, minor height rises and midlevel warming also
   will occur. A very moist airmass will exist across the Mid-Atlantic
   vicinity amid weak to moderate instability, supporting scattered to
   widespread thunderstorm activity. However, generally unfavorable
   vertical wind profiles coupled with poor midlevel lapse rates will
   limit organized severe thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, high PW
   values and pockets of steepening low-level lapse rates where
   stronger heating occurs could still result in sporadic wet
   microbursts and locally strong gusts.

   Further east, a weak surface low will shift from the upper MS Valley
   toward Lower MI and eastern Ontario. As this occurs, a cold front
   will develop southward across the Upper Midwest into IA, northern IL
   and Lower MI. A seasonally moist airmass and a band of weak to
   moderate instability will exist ahead of the front, supporting
   isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. However, vertical
   shear will remain very weak, and thunderstorm activity will likely
   remain pulse-like/disorganized, limiting severe potential.

   ..Leitman.. 07/22/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: July 22, 2024
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