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Nov 5, 2023 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 5 05:47:09 UTC 2023 (Print Version | 20231105 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20231105 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 050547

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1247 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2023

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z


   Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Pacific Northwest into
   Idaho and far southwest Montana, as well as over Lower Michigan, on

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   Surface low is forecast to be over western Lake Superior early
   Monday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this
   low to another secondary low over central KS. The primary low is
   expected to progress eastward throughout the day, moving across the
   Upper Great Lakes and northeast Ontario into southern Quebec, just
   ahead of its parent shortwave trough. Portion of the front close to
   the low will make steady eastward progress across the Upper Great
   Lakes and OH Valley. Some modest buoyancy is possible across Lower
   MI within the warm-air advection zone ahead of the front,
   contributing to the potential for a few deeper updrafts and isolated
   lightning flashes. Southern portion of the front is expected to
   stall across KS and MO amid persistent low-level moisture return.
   Low-level convergence will be sustained along this boundary
   throughout much of the day, with dewpoints south of the boundary
   approaching 60 deg F. Even so, warm mid-level temperatures are
   expected to prevent deep convection and limit thunderstorm chances.

   Farther west, a pair of shortwave troughs are expected to impact the
   Pacific Northwest. The lead wave will likely move through early
   Monday, continuing eastward into the northern Rockies Monday
   evening. A second, more amplified wave will follow in the wake of
   the first, approaching the Pacific Northwest and northern/central CA
   coast early Tuesday morning. Cold mid-level temperatures amid
   favorable large-scale forcing for ascent will support the potential
   for a few deeper convective cores capable of lightning from eastern
   OR into southern ID during the afternoon and evening. Multiple
   rounds of convection are also possible along the coast as the
   shortwaves move through. Cold mid-level temperatures will support
   modest buoyancy over this region as well, with some isolated
   lightning possible.

   ..Mosier.. 11/05/2023



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