SPC AC 060536

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1236 AM CDT Sun Nov 06 2022

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A large-scale upper trough/low centered along the West Coast will
   amplify further on Monday as it advances slowly eastward over the
   western CONUS. Cold mid-level temperatures associated with this
   feature may support the development of weak instability along/near
   coast of OR and northern/central CA. Isolated lightning flashes may
   occur with low-topped convection across these areas. Some potential
   exists for this activity to spread inland across parts of
   northern/central CA with strong forcing associated with a mid-level
   jet.

   Low-level moisture will continue streaming northward across much of
   the southern/central Plains on Monday, as lee cyclogenesis occurs
   over the northern/central High Plains. Weak, elevated thunderstorms
   may occur Monday morning across parts of TX into the lower MS
   Valley/Mid-South in a modest low-level warm advection regime. The
   potential for isolated thunderstorms should shift northward across
   the southern/central Plains Monday afternoon through Monday night as
   a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens. This activity
   should generally remain elevated. Deep-layer shear is forecast to
   gradually strengthen Monday night across the southern/central Plains
   as the upper trough approaches from the west. But, instability is
   forecast to remain fairly weak (MUCAPE generally less than 1000
   J/kg), so the threat for hail with elevated convection appears
   limited.

   ..Gleason.. 11/06/2022

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