SPC AC 020437
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
A few strong storms may affect parts of the Southeast including the
coastal Carolinas on Tuesday, but severe potential appears limited.
Isolated storms are also expected over Oregon during the afternoon.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Primarily weak cyclonic flow aloft will persist over
the eastern CONUS on Tuesday, with a surface ridge from the MO
Valley into the Northeast. Meanwhile, a front will linger across the
northern Gulf of Mexico, extending northeastward across the coastal
Carolinas. While a moist air mass will exist near this boundary,
several rounds of rain and thunderstorms will mitigate daytime
destabilization. Low-level winds may be relatively stronger over the
coastal Carolinas, but any isolated severe threat over land will
depend on frontal position.
To the west, a surface trough is forecast to develop over central WA
and OR during the day, where strong heating will occur. Lapse rates
aloft will also remain steep with around -10 C at 500 mb. Isolated
afternoon storms are expected as capping is removed over central and
eastern OR. Forecast soundings depict deep mixing layers which may
aid wind gusts. At this time, it appears coverage of storms will be
low due to limited moisture and little large-scale support for
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z