SPC AC 260550

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   KENTUCKY...INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms producing a few strong gusts or marginally severe hail
   will be possible across parts of the Ohio Valley into Middle
   Tennessee on Wednesday.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper low and associated shortwave trough over the Pacific
   Northwest Wednesday morning will weaken/fill rapidly as it sweeps
   east across MT, with height falls overnight into the northern High
   Plains. To the east, a weaker upper low will drift from IL into IN,
   with little progress into OH and Lower MI. 

   At the surface, cool air with high pressure will extend from Quebec
   southwestward across the Great Lakes and into the northern Plains,
   as well as along the East Coast. A relatively weak surface trough
   between the pressure ridges will exist across the OH Valley, where
   westerly flow in the low levels may maintain moisture and
   instability for scattered daytime storms.

   ...KY...IN...OH...TN...
   Strong daytime heating will occur across the region, with steep
   low-level lapse rates roughly from St. Louis to Louisville. Although
   moisture will be meager with dewpoints struggling to exceed 60 F,
   cool midlevel temperatures with the upper low will maximize
   instability with around 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in spots. Wind shear
   will be marginally favorable for a few longer-lived cells, but
   storms should remain relatively disorganized as they redevelop from
   IN into central KY and arcing southward toward Middle TN. The
   favorable time of day may favor isolated marginal hail in the
   strongest cells, and locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out
   given the deep mixed layers and sufficient instability.

   ..Jewell.. 09/26/2023

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z