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Jun 25, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 25 05:57:42 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240625 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20240625 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 250557

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z


   Scattered damaging winds are possible over parts of the Northeast
   and Mid Atlantic on Wednesday.

   ...Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast/Mid Atlantic...
   A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the
   upper Midwest toward the lower Great Lakes and Northeast on
   Wednesday, with some potential for convectively enhanced vorticity 
   maxima to move east-northeastward ahead of the primary shortwave.
   Rather moist low-level westerly flow will support potential for
   moderate diurnal destabilization from eastern OH into parts of the
   Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic, with stronger heating/mixing
   possible into parts of the southern Mid Atlantic. Scattered
   thunderstorm development will be possible Wednesday afternoon
   along/ahead of a cold front across parts of OH/PA and southern NY,
   which will spread eastward into the evening.

   Strengthening flow in the 700-500 mb layer will support sufficient
   effective shear for storm organization, with potential for a few
   organized clusters and perhaps a couple of supercells. Damaging wind
   and perhaps isolated hail will be possible, along with some
   potential for a brief tornado if a supercell can be sustained. 

   The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across parts of the Mid
   Atlantic, due to increased confidence in storm coverage within a
   somewhat favorable environment across parts of MD/VA.  

   ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Ozarks vicinity...
   Uncertainty regarding storm potential and evolution remains quite
   high from the lower Ohio Valley vicinity into the Ozarks. Elevated
   convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across
   multiple areas. An outflow-influenced front will be draped somewhere
   across the region through the day, to the south of a reinforcing
   cold front that will move southward from the upper Midwest.
   Modest northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will be in place across
   the region. Some diurnal intensification or redevelopment of storms
   will be possible near the front and any remaining outflow
   boundaries. The northwesterly flow regime may provide sufficient
   effective shear for some storm organization, with one or more
   clusters possible with a threat of damaging wind and perhaps some

   ...Southeast WY/northeast CO into central High Plains...
   Moist low-level southeasterly flow is expected on Wednesday from
   eastern CO/WY into the NE Panhandle and southeast WY. Moderate
   destabilization will be possible during the afternoon within this
   regime. While the region will initially be under the influence of an
   upper-level ridge over the southern Rockies, guidance suggests
   potential for a low-amplitude shortwave trough to crest the ridge
   from WY into western SD. This will support potential for at least
   isolated thunderstorm development. 

   Midlevel flow will be rather modest, but sufficient veering with
   height will support sufficient effective shear for storm
   organization, including some supercell potential with a threat of
   large hail and localized severe gusts. A strengthening nocturnal
   low-level jet could support some upscale growth, which could spread
   at least isolated severe-gust potential into parts of southwest NE
   and western KS.

   ...Upper Midwest...
   While guidance varies regarding destabilization potential across
   parts of the Upper Midwest, isolated storm development cannot be
   ruled out across the region, within a northwesterly flow regime.
   Moderate deep-layer shear would conditionally support strong to
   severe storms if sufficient instability can be realized, but
   confidence is too low to include probabilities for this potential at
   this time.

   ..Dean.. 06/25/2024



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