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Apr 16, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Apr 16 05:45:29 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240416 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20240416 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 160545

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER
   MICHIGAN SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF INDIANA/OHIO AND TOWARD THE OHIO
   RIVER...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and
   evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley.

   ...Synopsis...
   On Wednesday morning, a negative-tile shortwave trough will extend
   from MN to the mid MS Valley, and will weaken as it pivots northeast
   toward the upper Great Lakes by 00Z. To the west, a broad upper
   trough with move across the northern Rockies and into the northern
   Plains, with an intensifying midlevel speed max to around 90 kt by
   12Z Thursday over MN.

   At the surface, low pressure will fill as it moves from MN toward
   Upper MI, with a shrinking warm sector from north to south due to an
   occluded front. A plume of 60s F dewpoints will extend as far north
   as lower MI through afternoon, with mid to upper 60s from AR to the
   Red River. The trailing front will stall from the OH Valley to the
   Ozarks, then return north over the Plains as a warm front as a
   secondary low develops over the High Plains. A strong cold front
   will move south across the central Plains Wednesday night, reaching
   northwest TX into central OK by 12Z Thursday.

   ...Ohio Valley to Lower MI...
   The combination of a moist pre-frontal air mass as well as heating
   will lead to 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE, beneath 40-50 kt midlevel
   westerlies with cool temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft. Initial
   warm/moist advection east of the surface instability axis will
   likely lead to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday morning, primarily
   with little hail potential. 

   A greater threat of hail will occur during the peak heating hours,
   with east/southeast-moving cells developing from southern Lower MI
   across IN and OH. Rather veered/westerly winds will exist but may
   favor wind gusts as well. A capping inversion is forecast below 700
   mb, but lift along the front should support a narrow, broken line of
   storms. Northern areas toward Lower MI and northern OH appear to be
   more favorably positioned relative to the ejecting wave, and cell or
   two may produce a tornado in that area. Coverage of storms becomes
   uncertain with southward extend due to subsidence aloft in the wake
   of the ejecting wave. However, a conditional risk of hail will exist
   along the boundary southwestward toward the MS River.

   ...Central Plains/Lower MO Valley Late...
   As the cold front pushes south overnight, it will meet an unstable
   air mass, perhaps with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. This moisture surge
   will be aided by an increasing low-level jet, but timing of the
   front is uncertain, as they typically move faster that forecast.
   While capping is a concern, the increasing lift may remove CIN,
   allowing for elevated storms, some of which could produce hail.
   Given the favorable lapse rates aloft as well as deep-layer shear,
   low hail probabilities have been added, though the risk area may
   shift in subsequent outlooks.

   ..Jewell.. 04/16/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: April 16, 2024
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