SPC AC 030557

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1257 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
   TX TO SOUTHWEST MO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely, especially on Monday
   afternoon to early evening from northeast Texas to southwest
   Missouri. Tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong, and damaging
   winds should be the main hazards.

   ...Southern Great Plains to the Mid-MS Valley...
   A vigorous shortwave impulse and intense mid-level jet will eject
   across west TX on Monday morning and advance northeast into the
   Lower MO Valley by early Tuesday. While the trough orientation will
   be positive tilt and yield a predominantly south-southwesterly
   mid/upper flow regime, some of the fast winds will overlap with the
   northwest portion of the moderate buoyancy plume across the southern
   Great Plains. Weak mid-level lapse rates will afflict the warm-moist
   sector owing to multiple preceding days of convective overturning
   and the meridional flow regime. 

   Low-level warm advection should foster one convective swath centered
   from the Ark-La-Tex to the Mid-MS Valley at 12Z Monday. A separate
   linear cluster should also be ongoing in the western north TX to
   southwest OK vicinity, near a surface cyclone attendant to the
   aforementioned shortwave trough. This surface cyclone should deepen
   slightly as it progresses northeastward. Guidance suggests a window
   for at least modest diabatic surface heating between the convective
   swaths, across northeast TX into southeast OK, where mid to upper
   60s dew points should be emanating north from east TX. Increasing
   convective coverage and intensity are expected towards midday into
   the afternoon, within a largely north-northeast to south-southwest
   oriented swath centered on eastern OK to northeast TX. While a
   linear mode should dominate, enlarged low-level hodograph curvature
   and favorable speed shear in the mid/upper-levels will support
   potential for embedded supercell structures. This should be
   sufficient for tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong, along
   with scattered damaging winds. 

   Severe potential should diminish Monday night as the mostly linear
   convective band shifts east of the daytime-heating corridor.
   Convection over east to southeast TX will likely slow its eastward
   advance and contain more undercutting outflow, as large-scale ascent
   shifts north. The extent of severe potential northeast of the Ozarks
   will be limited by progressively diminishing surface-based
   instability. But amid a very strong low-level flow, confidence is
   low in where severe potential will become negligible Monday night.

   ..Grams.. 11/03/2024

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