SPC AC 190540

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1240 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF THE MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong storms with gusty winds and hail will be possible over
   a portion of the Midwest region on Wednesday.

   ...Midwest Region...

   A shortwave trough now situated over the Great Basin will advance
   east, reaching the Midwest on Wednesday. The accompanying cold front
   will extend from a surface low in northwest IA southwest through the
   central Plains by 12Z Wednesday. A warm front will stretch eastward
   from the low into the Great Lakes. By the end of the period the cold
   front should extend from a surface low near Lake MI southwest into
   southern IL and the southern Plains. Partially modified Gulf air
   with a narrow corridor of mid 50s to near 60 F dewpoints will return
   through the warm sector resulting in 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Showers
   and thunderstorms will likely be in progress early Wednesday within
   zone of stronger forcing north of the warm front from northern IA
   into southern MN. Given steep 700-500 mb lapse rates and up to 1000
   J/kg MUCAPE, some hail will be possible with the stronger storms. 

   Later in the day, additional thunderstorm development is possible
   farther southeast from IL into eastern MO within corridor of ascent
   along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will be
   embedded within moderate to strong deep layer winds and 40-45 kt
   effective bulk shear. It appears that the updraft inflow layer will
   be rooted above the surface, but sufficient dry air may be present
   in the boundary layer to support at least a marginal risk for a few
   strong to damaging wind gusts.

   ..Dial.. 10/19/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z