SPC AC 220536
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
Isolated wind damage and large hail will be possible across parts of
Texas Monday afternoon and evening.
An upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the Four
Corners region on Monday, as southwest mid-level flow remains
established from the southern Plains into the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable
airmass will be in place over Texas and Louisiana. Southeasterly
flow at the surface will result in moisture advection across much of
Texas. Dewpoints within the moist airmass will range from the 60s F
in the low Rolling Plains to the mid 70s F along the Texas coast.
The strongest instability in the afternoon will likely develop in
areas that remain convectively undisturbed. Model forecasts at this
time have a wide range of outcomes concerning the forecast
instability distribution. The current thinking takes an ensemble
approach, with moderate instability developing by afternoon from the
Texas Coastal Plains northwestward into the Texas Hill Country.
Thunderstorm development during the mid to late afternoon would most
likely take place on the western and northern edge of moderate
instability from near Del Rio to Abilene. Storm coverage should
increase in the late afternoon, with a convective complex moving
eastward across the Texas Hill Country.
NAM forecast soundings near San Antonio late Monday afternoon have
MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This
thermodynamic environment along with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35
knot range would be sufficient for severe-thunderstorm development.
Most of the storms should remain multicellular, with a threat for
wind damage and hail. Although the supercell threat will be
conditional, a few storms could become supercellular, mainly in the
late afternoon when instability is maximized. A small slight has
been added in the southern and western Texas Hill Country, where
model forecasts suggest the potential for moderate instability,
moderate shear and convective development is maximized.
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