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Sep 28, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 28 05:49:05 UTC 2022 (Print Version | 20220928 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220928 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 280549

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1249 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
   EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple of tornadoes will be possible across parts of east-central
   and northeast Florida Thursday morning and afternoon, in association
   with Tropical Cyclone Ian.

   ...Florida...
   Hurricane Ian is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by Thursday
   morning and move across the central/northeast FL Peninsula during
   the day, before moving offshore of the Florida Atlantic coast by
   Thursday evening (see NHC advisories and forecasts for more
   information regarding Ian). Based on the latest forecast track, the
   highest tornado probabilities have been confined to an area from
   near the Space Coast northward to south of Jacksonville, along/south
   of the persistent baroclinic zone across north FL, and north of the
   midlevel dry slot that is forecast to wrap into Ian's circulation. A
   notable convective band is expected to persist through the morning
   and potentially into early afternoon in this corridor, with
   low-level shear/SRH likely remaining favorable for embedded rotating
   cells and a couple brief tornadoes. By late afternoon into the
   evening, the threat should begin to diminish across the peninsula as
   Ian moves offshore. 

   ...Northern Rockies...
   A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move
   across the Pacific Northwest Thursday morning and into the northern
   Rockies during the afternoon/evening. Cold temperatures aloft and
   steep midlevel lapse rates will support thunderstorm development
   from central ID into western/central MT, western WY, and northern
   UT. Limited low-level moisture should generally limit buoyancy, but
   isolated gusty winds and small hail will be possible with the
   strongest storms, mainly during the afternoon and evening.

   ..Dean.. 09/28/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: September 28, 2022
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