SPC AC 060536
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Sun Nov 06 2022
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough/low centered along the West Coast will
amplify further on Monday as it advances slowly eastward over the
western CONUS. Cold mid-level temperatures associated with this
feature may support the development of weak instability along/near
coast of OR and northern/central CA. Isolated lightning flashes may
occur with low-topped convection across these areas. Some potential
exists for this activity to spread inland across parts of
northern/central CA with strong forcing associated with a mid-level
jet.
Low-level moisture will continue streaming northward across much of
the southern/central Plains on Monday, as lee cyclogenesis occurs
over the northern/central High Plains. Weak, elevated thunderstorms
may occur Monday morning across parts of TX into the lower MS
Valley/Mid-South in a modest low-level warm advection regime. The
potential for isolated thunderstorms should shift northward across
the southern/central Plains Monday afternoon through Monday night as
a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens. This activity
should generally remain elevated. Deep-layer shear is forecast to
gradually strengthen Monday night across the southern/central Plains
as the upper trough approaches from the west. But, instability is
forecast to remain fairly weak (MUCAPE generally less than 1000
J/kg), so the threat for hail with elevated convection appears
limited.
..Gleason.. 11/06/2022
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