SPC AC 220536

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1236 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated wind damage and large hail will be possible across parts of
   Texas Monday afternoon and evening.

   ...Texas...
   An upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the Four
   Corners region on Monday, as southwest mid-level flow remains
   established from the southern Plains into the lower to mid
   Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable
   airmass will be in place over Texas and Louisiana. Southeasterly
   flow at the surface will result in moisture advection across much of
   Texas. Dewpoints within the moist airmass will range from the 60s F
   in the low Rolling Plains to the mid 70s F along the Texas coast.
   The strongest instability in the afternoon will likely develop in
   areas that remain convectively undisturbed. Model forecasts at this
   time have a wide range of outcomes concerning the forecast
   instability distribution. The current thinking takes an ensemble
   approach, with moderate instability developing by afternoon from the
   Texas Coastal Plains northwestward into the Texas Hill Country.
   Thunderstorm development during the mid to late afternoon would most
   likely take place on the western and northern edge of moderate
   instability from near Del Rio to Abilene. Storm coverage should
   increase in the late afternoon, with a convective complex moving
   eastward across the Texas Hill Country.

   NAM forecast soundings near San Antonio late Monday afternoon have
   MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This
   thermodynamic environment along with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35
   knot range would be sufficient for severe-thunderstorm development.
   Most of the storms should remain multicellular, with a threat for
   wind damage and hail. Although the supercell threat will be
   conditional, a few storms could become supercellular, mainly in the
   late afternoon when instability is maximized. A small slight has
   been added in the southern and western Texas Hill Country, where
   model forecasts suggest the potential for moderate instability,
   moderate shear and convective development is maximized.

   ..Broyles.. 05/22/2022

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