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Jun 15, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 15 05:22:25 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240615 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20240615 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 150522

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1222 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
   NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE ON SUNDAY AND
   SUNDAY NIGHT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong to severe storms are expected Sunday evening and
   overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper
   Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk.

   ...Synopsis...
   On Sunday, an upper trough will move east/northeast across MT and
   the far northern Plains, becoming negatively tilted as the parent
   low moves into MB. Meanwhile, a lead wave will move quickly east
   across the Great Lakes region around the north side of a strong
   upper ridge. Late in the period, height falls will again increase
   across the Pacific NW into the Rockies as another trough amplifies
   there.

   At the surface, a nearly stationary front will extend roughly from
   northeast CO into southern MN, with a weak lee trough from eastern
   CO into NM. A prominent surface ridge will extend from the high
   pressure center over the Mid Atlantic southwestward toward the Gulf
   Coast.

   A broad area of southwest winds around 850 mb will maintain a warm
   low-level air mass south of the stationary front across the Plains
   and around the upper ridge as warmer air spreads east across the
   Great Lakes. The presence of a moist and unstable air mass in the
   vicinity of the stationary front should be the primary focus for
   scattered storms, some severe, late in the day and overnight from
   eastern WY toward MN and WI.

   ...WI into MI Early...then WY to WI Late...
   Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning over WI, in
   a region of low-level warm advection, and where elevated instability
   will be substantial. This activity will progress quickly east toward
   Upper MI and perhaps northern Lower MI, with a general weakening
   trend. However, marginal hail cannot be ruled out especially early
   in the day.

   Behind this wave of activity, strong instability will develop.
   However, lift will be quite weak as temporary height rises occur.
   Still, a weak surface boundary along with peak heating could
   initiate isolated cells capable of hail from MN into WI during the
   late afternoon.

   More likely, most of the activity will hold off until after 00Z, as
   elevated instability builds back north. Between 03-06Z, scattered
   storms will be likely from eastern WY across parts of NE and SD,
   southern MN, northern WI and into western Upper MI. Vigorous
   convection will likely produce large hail at times, with favorable
   mid and high level flow elongating hodographs despite the main wave
   well north of the region. 

   Elsewhere, more isolated storms will be possible extending south
   along the dryline from southwest NE into western KS and far eastern
   NM. Locally strong gusts and brief hail may occur, but shear will be
   weak.

   ..Jewell.. 06/15/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: June 15, 2024
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