SPC AC 020600

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Sunday
   from parts of the northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains.
   Large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats.

   ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central Plains...
   An upper ridge should remain over much of the Rockies and adjacent
   High Plains on Sunday, while an upper low persists along/near the
   coast of the Pacific Northwest. Multiple weak mid-level
   perturbations should round the apex of the upper ridge through the
   period. Even though large-scale ascent associated with these subtle
   shortwave troughs will be modest, there should be enough forcing to
   support scattered thunderstorm development by Sunday afternoon
   across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. This initial
   activity should be high-based and generally in a limited low-level
   moisture and weak instability environment. But, strong deep-layer
   shear may still allow for updraft organization and an isolated
   threat for both severe wind gusts and some hail.

   As these thunderstorms spread eastward off the higher terrain and
   into the adjacent northern/central High Plains, they should
   eventually encounter greater low-level moisture along/east of a
   surface lee trough. A weak surface front should also extend over
   eastern MT into ND. Modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should
   overspread parts of the warm sector across the northern/central
   Plains. Moderate to strong instability should develop from parts of
   eastern MT into the Dakotas and NE by peak afternoon heating.
   Effective bulk shear across this region appears sufficient for a mix
   of multicells and supercells. Both large hail and severe/damaging
   wind gusts appear possible as thunderstorms move generally eastward
   through Sunday evening. A tornado or two also appears possible
   along/south of the weak front in ND where low-level shear may be
   locally maximized, especially with any supercell that can be
   sustained. Have introduced a Slight Risk for hail/wind from parts of
   the northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains, where
   confidence has increased in isolated to scattered severe
   thunderstorms occurring.

   ...Southern Virginia into the Carolinas...
   A weak cold front should be present across southern VA at the start
   of the period Sunday morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
   should develop through Sunday afternoon as this boundary moves
   slowly southward into NC/SC through the day. This region will be on
   the southern periphery of modestly enhanced mid-level westerlies
   present over the Mid-Atlantic. Although mid-level flow will likely
   remain fairly weak over southern VA and the Carolinas, there should
   still be sufficient deep-layer shear for modest convective
   organization. Moderate instability should also develop and promote
   robust updrafts as diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass
   occurs. Loosely organized thunderstorm clusters capable of producing
   occasional damaging winds should spread southward from southern VA
   into the Carolinas Sunday afternoon and early evening.

   ..Gleason.. 07/02/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z