SPC AC 130430

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
   U.S. Monday through Monday night.

   ...Synopsis...
   Latest model output indicates little change from prior runs for this
   period, with the mid-latitude westerlies forecast to remain modestly
   amplified but generally progressive Monday through Monday night. 
   Within this regime, it appears that initially more prominent ridging
   over the Canadian Prairies will begin to break down.  As the ridge
   axis takes on a more notable positive tilt (toward Hudson Bay), the
   axis of large-scale downstream troughing will gradually do the same
   across the eastern U.S. into the Canadian Maritimes.

   Within the cyclonic flow, a significant lead short wave impulse
   remains forecast to be accompanied by strengthening
   lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis near the north Atlantic Seaboard
   into the Canadian Maritimes/St. Lawrence Valley.  As a similar
   trailing perturbation digs across the international border and Upper
   Midwest, toward the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys, cool surface
   ridging is forecast to build southward into much of the interior
   U.S. by the end of the period.

   It appears that the leading edge of the cold intrusion will advance
   through the south Atlantic and Gulf Coast states, well south of the
   mid-level cold core (shifting across the upper Great Lakes) and
   upper support for large-scale ascent, with little appreciable risk
   for thunderstorms.  As flow trends cyclonic across the Gulf of
   Mexico into subtropical Atlantic, an embedded residual mid-level
   shear axis, demarcating the northern periphery of a remnant plume of
   tropical moisture, likely will gradually shift southeast of the
   southern Florida Peninsula and Keys.

   Across the West, large-scale mid-level ridging may continue to
   develop inland of the Pacific coast through the Rockies.  However, a
   weakening low initially over the Great Basin may generally be
   maintained while slowly digging southeastward, to the west and
   southwest of the Four Corners region.  Mid/upper forcing for ascent
   and cooling to the northeast of this feature may contribute to
   sufficient destabilization to support convection capable of
   producing lightning across the higher terrain of Utah/adjacent
   northern Arizona into eastern Colorado Monday afternoon and evening.

   ..Kerr.. 10/13/2024

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z