Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Cleveland, OH...Virginia Beach, VA...Colorado Springs, CO...
SPC AC 200555
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday, especially during
the afternoon and evening across portions of the
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic States as well as the south-central High
...Appalachians/Upper Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic States...
Although the primary surface cyclogenesis will be focused north of
the International border, a semi-amplified belt of seasonally
strong/cyclonically curved westerlies will overspread much of the
region on Tuesday coincident with an eastward-moving cold front.
Relatively widespread early-day convection and lingering cloud cover
limits confidence in appreciable destabilization and may somewhat
curb the overall magnitude of Tuesday's severe risk.
However, relatively strong low-level shear and upwards of 35-40 kt
effective shear suggests the potential for sustained multicells and
some supercells where adequate (even modest) diurnally enhanced
destabilization occurs Tuesday afternoon. This currently appears
most probable across far eastern Ohio/western Pennsylvania southward
into parts of Maryland/Virginia. Elsewhere, at least isolated severe
storms may occur as far south as the Carolinas/southern Appalachians
under a more modestly strong flow regime.
...South-Central High Plains...
Moist low-level upslope flow will be focused on Tuesday to the north
of a southern High Plains surface low. This will be in conjunction
with a moderately strong (25-30 kt at 500 mb) belt of westerlies to
the north of the southern High Plains-centered upper-level ridge.
While initial storm development Tuesday afternoon is expected over
the Front Range/foothills vicinities, it appears a sub-regional area
of more favorable deep-layer shear and buoyancy coincident with
probable storm development will exist across far southeast Colorado
and neighboring areas including far southwest Kansas and the western
Oklahoma Panhandle. Both severe-caliber wind gusts and hail will be
possible across the region.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 5% - Slight
Wind: 15% - Slight
Hail: 15% - Slight
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z