Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 060536
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Sun Nov 06 2022
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough/low centered along the West Coast will
amplify further on Monday as it advances slowly eastward over the
western CONUS. Cold mid-level temperatures associated with this
feature may support the development of weak instability along/near
coast of OR and northern/central CA. Isolated lightning flashes may
occur with low-topped convection across these areas. Some potential
exists for this activity to spread inland across parts of
northern/central CA with strong forcing associated with a mid-level
jet.
Low-level moisture will continue streaming northward across much of
the southern/central Plains on Monday, as lee cyclogenesis occurs
over the northern/central High Plains. Weak, elevated thunderstorms
may occur Monday morning across parts of TX into the lower MS
Valley/Mid-South in a modest low-level warm advection regime. The
potential for isolated thunderstorms should shift northward across
the southern/central Plains Monday afternoon through Monday night as
a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens. This activity
should generally remain elevated. Deep-layer shear is forecast to
gradually strengthen Monday night across the southern/central Plains
as the upper trough approaches from the west. But, instability is
forecast to remain fairly weak (MUCAPE generally less than 1000
J/kg), so the threat for hail with elevated convection appears
limited.
..Gleason.. 11/06/2022
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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