May 22, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed May 22 06:01:06 UTC 2024 (20240522 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20240522 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20240522 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 297,013 20,471,657 Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...
MARGINAL 507,344 84,627,599 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Boston, MA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20240522 0600 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 111,919 7,094,608 Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Plano, TX...Norman, OK...
2 % 144,344 12,697,172 Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Garland, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20240522 0600 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 296,982 20,529,921 Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...
5 % 506,816 84,537,737 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Boston, MA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20240522 0600 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 96,459 11,041,897 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
15 % 297,119 20,576,622 Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...
5 % 507,648 84,377,092 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Boston, MA...
   SPC AC 220601

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0101 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID-SOUTH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
   central/southern Plains into the Mid-South region on Thursday.
   Damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible.
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also will be possible across
   across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic and
   Northeast.

   ...Synopsis...

   Enhanced west/southwesterly flow will spread across the southern
   Plains to the Lower MS Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Thursday.
   One upper shortwave impulse is forecast to eject from the southern
   Rockies to the Mid-South, while another subtle impulse moves from
   the TN Valley vicinity to the Carolinas. To the north, a negatively
   tilted compact upper shortwave trough is expected to pivot east from
   the northern Great Basin/Rockies to the northern Plains. This will
   bring a small but strong 500 mb jet of 70-80 over NE/SD during the
   evening/overnight. Meanwhile, an upper low and attendant trough
   migrating east across Ontario and Quebec will result in height falls
   over the Northeast.

   At the surface, a cold front is expected to shift east across the
   Northeast states through early evening. To the west across the
   northern Plains vicinity, lee low development over the
   northern/central High Plains will result in increasing southerly
   low-level flow across the Plains. This will aid in northward
   transport of Gulf moisture, and surface dewpoints are expected to
   increase markedly across the southern/central Plains east into the
   OH/TN valleys. A surface dryline is forecast to extend southward
   from a low in western KS into central TX. Meanwhile, a cold front
   will sweep east/southeast across the northern/central Plains, and
   into northwest OK during the evening/overnight hours.

   ...Southern Plains/KS to the Mid-South Vicinity...

   A very moist airmass will develop by midday, with surface dewpoints
   in the upper 60s to near 70 F common. Steep midlevel lapse rates
   atop this very moist boundary layer will foster strong to extreme
   instability with MLCAPE from 2500-4500 J/kg evident in forecast
   soundings. Thunderstorms may develop across parts of AR into the
   Mid-South vicinity by early afternoon in a strong warm advection
   regime as a warm front rapidly lifts northward. Low-level shear is
   expected to be fairly weak, but supercell wind profiles are depicted
   in forecast soundings. This will support storms capable of large
   hail and damaging gusts.

   Further west, at least isolated convection is expected to develop
   along the dryline from west-central KS to near the OK/TX border.
   Capping may limit coverage given modest large-scale ascent. However,
   given the degree of instability, robust updrafts should be able to
   overcome modest capping. Very large hail (near 2.5 inch diameter)
   will be possible with these storms in addition to strong gusts. By
   late afternoon/early evening, low-level shear is expected to
   increase, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs. A few
   tornadoes will be possible with any sustained supercell activity.
   Some potential for upscale growth into an MCS will exist from
   southeast KS/southwest MO into eastern OK/AR as the low-level jet
   increases and via storm outflow consolidation.

   ...Northern/Central Plains...

   Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the
   deepening surface low over the Dakotas southward along the
   east/southeast-progressing cold front. Low-level moisture will
   remain modest with northward extent across the Dakotas into western
   MN, with higher-quality moisture expected over NE. However, steep
   midlevel lapse rates will be present, and contribute to 1000-2000
   J/kg MLCAPE. Strong to severe storms producing hail will be possible
   initially. Damaging wind potential may increase toward
   evening/overnight as a line of convection develops amid strong
   frontal forcing.

   ...KY/TN to the Mid-Atlantic...

   A subtle shortwave trough will spread east across the region as
   boundary-layer moisture increasing amid strengthening southerly
   low-level flow. Clusters of thunderstorms may pose a risk of hail
   and gusty winds across parts of KY/TN. With eastward extent into VA
   and the Carolinas, thunderstorm coverage will be higher. Clusters of
   storms may develop into one or more east/southeast progressing
   bands. Deeply-mixed sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong
   gusts will be possible in addition to isolated hail.

   ...Northeast...

   A surface cold front will shift east across the region during the
   day before moving offshore by early evening. Surface dewpoints in
   the low 60s and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE
   values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Low-level flow will remain weak, but
   fast mid/upper westerly flow will support elongated/straight
   hodographs. Thunderstorms may produce isolated strong gusts and
   marginally severe hail in this environment.

   ..Leitman.. 05/22/2024

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z