Nov 6, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 6 05:36:33 UTC 2022 (20221106 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20221106 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20221106 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20221106 0600 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20221106 0600 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20221106 0600 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 060536

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1236 AM CDT Sun Nov 06 2022

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A large-scale upper trough/low centered along the West Coast will
   amplify further on Monday as it advances slowly eastward over the
   western CONUS. Cold mid-level temperatures associated with this
   feature may support the development of weak instability along/near
   coast of OR and northern/central CA. Isolated lightning flashes may
   occur with low-topped convection across these areas. Some potential
   exists for this activity to spread inland across parts of
   northern/central CA with strong forcing associated with a mid-level
   jet.

   Low-level moisture will continue streaming northward across much of
   the southern/central Plains on Monday, as lee cyclogenesis occurs
   over the northern/central High Plains. Weak, elevated thunderstorms
   may occur Monday morning across parts of TX into the lower MS
   Valley/Mid-South in a modest low-level warm advection regime. The
   potential for isolated thunderstorms should shift northward across
   the southern/central Plains Monday afternoon through Monday night as
   a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens. This activity
   should generally remain elevated. Deep-layer shear is forecast to
   gradually strengthen Monday night across the southern/central Plains
   as the upper trough approaches from the west. But, instability is
   forecast to remain fairly weak (MUCAPE generally less than 1000
   J/kg), so the threat for hail with elevated convection appears
   limited.

   ..Gleason.. 11/06/2022

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z