Aug 22, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 22 05:01:05 UTC 2019 (20190822 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20190822 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190822 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 154,033 9,958,298 Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...Chesapeake, VA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20190822 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 152,221 10,013,133 Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...Chesapeake, VA...
   SPC AC 220501

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1201 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
   VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe wind gusts are possible Friday over parts of North
   Carolina and southern Virginia, with hail and localized strong gusts
   possible over the northern and central High Plains.

   ...Synopsis...
   A positive-tilt upper trough will move across the Northeast with
   around 30 kt midlevel winds trailing across the Mid Atlantic. A
   front will drift southward across VA during the day, providing lift
   for storms, some capable of wind damage, from VA into NC. The
   westward extension of this front will move into Plains, with
   southeast surface winds maintaining 60s F dewpoints into the High
   Plains. A compact shortwave trough will move from WY into the
   Dakotas, providing cool air aloft and maximizing instability for a
   few strong to severe storms capable of hail.

   ...Southern VA into NC...
   Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning from eastern KY
   across WV and into western VA in association with lift near the
   right entrance region of the upper jet. Preceding this activity,
   heating of a moist air mass will lead to around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE,
   allowing ongoing activity to strengthen during the day. New
   development is also likely eastward along the front. While this
   boundary will be parallel to the upper flow, a southeastward
   propagation is expected as storms merge outflows, with locally
   damaging winds possible in an otherwise weak shear environment.

   ...Northern and central High Plains...
   Temperatures aloft will become cool for this time of year with the
   weak upper trough. Shear will not increase much, but southeast
   low-level winds will maintain ample moisture into eastern WY and CO,
   with isolated strong storms likely by late afternoon forming near
   the Front Range. Additional storms are likely over the Black Hills. 
   Storms are generally expected to move east, within a narrow
   north-south corridor of hail or marginal wind threat with capping to
   the east.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
   Wind:      5%     - Marginal
   Hail:      5%     - Marginal

   ..Jewell.. 08/22/2019

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z