New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Metairie, LA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
39,782
4,164,296
New Orleans, LA...Tallahassee, FL...Metairie, LA...Albany, GA...Gulfport, MS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
53,403
5,961,430
New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Metairie, LA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
53,403
5,961,430
New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Metairie, LA...
SPC AC 230556
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday
morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern
Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to advance slowly eastward across
the eastern half of the U.S. on Monday, while ridging expands over
the West. At the surface, a weakening occluded low will move from
the Upper Great Lakes eastward to southern Quebec through the
period. A trailing cold front will initially stretch from the Lower
Great Lakes to the southern Appalachians, and then westward across
the Gulf Coast States to Texas. The front will move offshore into
the western Atlantic through the day, while sagging southward toward
the Gulf Coast -- where it should then linger through the end of the
period.
...Southern Louisiana to southern Georgia and the Florida
Panhandle...
Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and
south of the advancing cold front. Some severe risk (mainly
hail/wind) may accompany a couple of the stronger storms during the
morning, near the Gulf Coast region. Depending upon convective
coverage/evolution through late morning, any pre-frontal
heating/destabilization could support
redevelopment/reintensification of frontal convection, with a
secondary peak in severe potential possible in this scenario.
Still, overall risk does not appear to warrant SLGT risk upgrade at
this time. Storms should weaken into the evening, while also
shifting gradually southward/offshore.
..Goss.. 03/23/2025
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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