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Nov 26, 2022 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Nov 26 06:36:34 UTC 2022 (Print Version | 20221126 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20221126 0700Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 260636

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1236 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2022

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z


   The severe-thunderstorm threat currently appears low on Sunday.

   A mid/upper-level cyclone initially centered near the mid-MS Valley
   is forecast to evolve into a negatively tilted shortwave trough as
   it ejects quickly northeastward on Sunday, moving offshore of New
   England by early Monday morning. A surface cyclone is forecast to
   move across parts of the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes during the
   day and then move across New England Sunday night, as an attendant
   cold front sweeps through much of the eastern CONUS by early Monday

   ..FL Panhandle northward into the Carolinas...
   Convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from the FL
   Panhandle into parts of GA and southeast AL, with widespread
   precipitation farther north into the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and
   Ohio Valley. Strong deep-layer wind fields will support organized
   convection, and a few strong storms will be possible early in the
   day across parts of GA and north FL. However, with generally weak
   buoyancy and a tendency for the strongest large-scale ascent to move
   quickly northeastward away from the region, a general weakening
   trend is expected through the morning hours. 

   Richer low-level moisture may spread into the Carolinas by
   afternoon, with wind profiles remaining conditionally favorable for
   organized convection. However, weak diurnal heating and poor
   midlevel lapse rates will limit buoyancy, which should tend to limit
   the potential for sustained deep convection in the absence of
   stronger large-scale ascent. At this time, confidence in sustained
   organized convection remains low, but low severe probabilities may
   eventually be needed across some part of the Southeast and/or
   Carolinas, depending on shorter-term observational and guidance

   ...Ohio Valley and vicinity...
   In the wake of widespread morning precipitation, low-topped
   convection may develop in the vicinity of the ejecting shortwave
   trough on Sunday afternoon across parts of the OH Valley. At this
   time, buoyancy guidance ranges from very weak to nil, but with
   favorable ascent associated with the shortwave trough and strong
   low-level wind fields, even relatively weak low-topped convection
   may be able to produce some convectively enhanced gusts. If
   confidence increases regarding the potential for sufficiently
   robust/sustained convection during the afternoon, wind probabilities
   may eventually be needed across some part of the region.

   ..Dean.. 11/26/2022



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