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Jan 23, 2019 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 23 05:20:18 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190123 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20190123 0700Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 230520

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1120 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   FLORIDA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are likely across the Florida Peninsula on Thursday,
   with isolated strong to severe wind gusts possible mainly early in
   the day. A few storms may affect the outer banks of North Carolinas
   as well.

   ...Synopsis...
   An intense and meridional jet max will approach the East Coast on
   Thursday with a 100 kt midlevel southerly flow and 850 winds
   increasing to 60-80 kts ahead of a cold front. Instability will be
   meager in most areas, with the greatest chance of thunderstorms over
   Florida. By midday on Thursday, the front will be mostly offshore,
   ending any thunderstorm threat. Otherwise, a vast area of cool, dry
   air will infiltrate the rest of the nation behind this front, with
   multiple bouts of high pressure shifting southward out of Canada and
   into the Plains.

   ...Florida...
   Strong low-level wind profiles will exist coincident with showers
   and storms along a weakening cold front from Tampa to Jacksonville
   on Thursday. Instability looks to be marginal with MLCAPE generally
   in the 500-750 J/kg vicinity, and large-scale support will be
   decreasing with time as the shortwave trough ejects away from the
   region. This will also cause low-level winds to quickly veer to
   westerly, with decreasing storm chances during the day. A few strong
   wind gusts cannot be ruled out early on Thursday with decreasing
   severe chances during the afternoon.

   ...Eastern North Carolina...
   Wind profiles will become very strong on Thursday ahead of a cold
   front which will move offshore after 12-18Z. Models depict
   southwesterly 850 mb winds to around 75 kt before veering with the
   frontal passage, but model consensus is that the near-surface layer
   to be relatively cool and stable, possibly only supporting shallow,
   partially elevated convection with little lightning. If subsequent
   model runs show increasing trends regarding low-level instability,
   severe probabilities could be added for eastern North Carolina.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
   Wind:      5%     - Marginal
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Jewell.. 01/23/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: January 23, 2019
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