SPC AC 100552
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2019
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NM INTO WEST TX...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly Monday
evening/night across parts of the southern High Plains. Marginally
severe hail should be the main threat.
Upper ridging will amplify over much of the central CONUS on Monday,
with an expansive surface high remaining across much of the
central/eastern states through the period. A stalled front should
extend from vicinity of the FL/GA border westward along/near the
Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms may occur Monday along this
boundary, but both instability and shear should remain too weak to
support a meaningful severe threat. Farther west, a closed upper low
off the coast of CA will develop slowly east-southeastward to the
Baja Peninsula and lower CO River Valley by the end of the period.
...Southern NM into West TX...
Low-level moisture return will occur in earnest Monday evening and
night across much of TX into eastern NM ahead of the approaching
upper low as a southwesterly low-level jet quickly strengthens
across this area. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates emanating
from the higher terrain of northern Mexico should overspread the
southern High Plains by Monday evening, and instability will likely
increase across this region late in the period. Strong mid-level
southwesterly winds should also spread northeastward over NM and
west TX, with 50+ kt of effective bulk shear supporting organized
Model guidance continues to exhibit variability with the
northwestward extent and quality of the low-level moisture return
across southern NM and west TX. Still, MUCAPE potentially increasing
to around 1000-1500 J/kg in combination with the strong shear could
encourage elevated supercells mainly Monday evening/night from parts
of southeastern NM into west TX. If this occurs, isolated large hail
would probably be the main threat, although strong/gusty winds
cannot be ruled out where instability becomes maximized.
There appears to be some chance for near-surface-based thunderstorm
development by Monday afternoon across parts of the lower Rio Grande
Valley in southern NM if the low-level moisture return is on the
more aggressive side of the model guidance envelope. Currently, this
potential appears too uncertain to expand the Marginal risk area any
farther westward at this time.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 5% - Marginal
Hail: 5% - Marginal
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