SPC AC 100530
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2019
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across central and southern
Thunderstorm potential will continue to be limited mostly to central
and southern Florida along and ahead of a southwardly moving cold
front. Surface heating within a moist airmass (characterized by 60s
to 70F dewpoints) will allow for weak buoyancy to develop despite
marginal mid-level lapse rates. Shear profiles will also be weak,
limiting any broader-scale severe risk.
Farther west, low-amplitude shortwave troughs will migrate through
the base of a larger trough centered over the Gulf of Alaska and
result in areas of precipitation along the Washington State
coastline and vicinity. Falling heights and cooling aloft should
result in enough weak buoyancy aloft for a couple of lightning
strikes especially over open waters. Elsewhere, cool and stable
low-level air of continental origin will limit thunder potential.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: <2% - None
Wind: <5% - None
Hail: <5% - None
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z