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Mar 8, 2020 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 8 05:25:52 UTC 2020 (Print Version | 20200308 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20200308 0700Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 080525

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1125 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2020

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z


   The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
   U.S., Monday through Monday night.

   Models continue to indicate that the crest of a flattening mid-level
   ridge will nose across the northeastern mid-latitude Pacific, into
   parts of southern British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest during
   this period.  As this occurs, a significant mid-level low, initially
   digging across parts of the southern mid-latitude and subtropical
   eastern Pacific, is forecast to turn/reform eastward, roughly along
   30N latitude.  The progression likely will be slow and, though the
   leading edge of the cyclonic flow may approach the southern
   California coast by late Monday night, the mid-level cold core is
   still expected remain several hundred miles offshore.

   Downstream of the low, broad ridging likely will be maintained
   within the southern branch of the split mid-latitude westerlies,
   across the Southwest into southern Plains.  However, a transition
   toward a more zonal regime may continue across much of the nation,
   as short wave troughs within both the northern and southern streams
   progress east of the Canadian Prairies and south central Plains,

   Ahead of the north branch impulse, a surface low may consolidate
   across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region into
   southeastern Ontario and western Quebec.  A trailing cold front is
   forecast to advance east/southeast of the Upper Midwest, middle
   Missouri Valley and central Plains, eventually into parts of the
   lower Ohio Valley, Ozark Plateau and southern Plains Red River
   Valley by late Monday night, as the southern branch perturbation
   accelerates into and through the lower Ohio Valley.

   The southern branch perturbation will be preceded by a shield of
   rain associated with a plume of mid/high level moisture return from
   the lower latitude eastern Pacific.  Along the front, weakening
   convection, initially over parts of the central Plains and mid
   Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest, will spread northeastward,
   to the north/northeast of the mid-level feature.

   A moderately strong (30-50 kt) southerly 850 mb jet, initially over
   the southern Plains into middle Mississippi Valley, is expected to
   shift northeastward (within the generally stable air) in association
   with the primary developing surface low.  While it does appear that
   continuing southerly return flow off a modifying boundary layer over
   the Gulf of Mexico may yield more substantive  inland moisture
   return ahead of the cold front, models suggest that this will occur
   mostly south and southwest of the forcing for ascent associated with
   the southern branch wave.  

   ...Southeastern Plains...
   A corridor of weak boundary-layer destabilization may occur ahead of
   the cold front, across parts of northeast Texas into eastern
   Oklahoma, contributing to at least conditional potential for
   thunderstorm development Monday.  However, attempts at deep
   convection may be suppressed by increasing inhibition associated
   with warming aloft, as well as the lack of mid/upper support for

   ...Central Plains into middle Mississippi Valley...
   Trailing the initial shield of rain, cooling aloft associated with a
   developing center of cyclonic vorticity may contribute to the
   evolution of thermodynamic profiles marginally sufficient for
   scattered weak thunderstorm activity, particularly across parts of
   eastern Kansas into Missouri Monday afternoon and evening.

   Additional weak thunderstorm development is possible late Monday
   night across southwestern Nebraska and adjacent portions of the
   central Plains, aided by lift associated with increasing low-level
   warm advection.

   ..Kerr.. 03/08/2020



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