SPC AC 120529
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CST Sun Nov 11 2018
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Thunderstorm potential will linger across portions of the
Southeastern States, including the Florida Peninsula.
Severe probs will not be forecast this period. This is predicated on
surface front advancing off the NC coast by the beginning of the
day2 period. If this boundary is slower to move offshore, a strongly
sheared and potentially buoyant air mass over eastern NC may need
severe probs prior to 18z.
Other wise, upper ridge is forecast to hold off the Southeast coast
through day2 with negligible height changes expected across FL into
coastal Carolinas. Upstream, a substantial upper trough will dig
into TX during the day1 period then eject into the lower MS Valley
by sunrise Wednesday morning. Seasonally high PW air mass will
remain in place across the eastern Gulf basin but much weaker
buoyancy should extend downstream across FL and adjacent warm
sector. Latest model guidance suggests convection should develop
along/north of a pronounced surface front that should sag southeast
into the northern FL Peninsula during the afternoon. However, south
of this boundary, poor lapse rates and lack of large-scale forcing
should limit thunderstorm potential to more isolated activity. At
this time it appears the prospect for severe thunderstorms will
remain low, primarily due to upper ridging and weak lapse rates.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: <2% - None
Wind: <5% - None
Hail: <5% - None
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z