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Nov 20, 2018 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 20 06:29:52 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20181120 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20181120 0700Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 200629

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1229 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the California coast on
   Wednesday but no severe thunderstorms are expected.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to progress eastward
   across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley during the period.
   The approach of this shortwave will help induce surface cyclogenesis
   is anticipated along the western periphery of a stalled frontal zone
   extending across the Gulf of Mexico. However, the resulting low is
   expected to remain over the western Gulf, precluding any warm sector
   penetration inland and keeping any instability well offshore.

   Farther west, a deep upper trough will move over the West Coast
   during the second half of the period. Abundant cloud cover is
   anticipated ahead of this system, limiting diurnal heating. Even so,
   cool temperatures aloft will contribute to steep lapse rates and
   modestly unstable profiles. Bands of showers and isolated
   thunderstorms are expected along and just ahead of the surface front
   associated with the upper trough. The isolated thunderstorm threat
   is only expected to extend about 50-70 miles inland with the cooler
   temperatures and/or reduced low-level moisture contributing to more
   stability farther inland.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:     <5%     - None
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Mosier.. 11/20/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: November 20, 2018
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