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Mar 10, 2019 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 10 05:52:53 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190310 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20190310 0700Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 100552

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1152 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2019

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHEASTERN NM INTO WEST TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly Monday
   evening/night across parts of the southern High Plains. Marginally
   severe hail should be the main threat.

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper ridging will amplify over much of the central CONUS on Monday,
   with an expansive surface high remaining across much of the
   central/eastern states through the period. A stalled front should
   extend from vicinity of the FL/GA border westward along/near the
   Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms may occur Monday along this
   boundary, but both instability and shear should remain too weak to
   support a meaningful severe threat. Farther west, a closed upper low
   off the coast of CA will develop slowly east-southeastward to the
   Baja Peninsula and lower CO River Valley by the end of the period.

   ...Southern NM into West TX...
   Low-level moisture return will occur in earnest Monday evening and
   night across much of TX into eastern NM ahead of the approaching
   upper low as a southwesterly low-level jet quickly strengthens
   across this area. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates emanating
   from the higher terrain of northern Mexico should overspread the
   southern High Plains by Monday evening, and instability will likely
   increase across this region late in the period. Strong mid-level
   southwesterly winds should also spread northeastward over NM and
   west TX, with 50+ kt of effective bulk shear supporting organized
   updrafts.

   Model guidance continues to exhibit variability with the
   northwestward extent and quality of the low-level moisture return
   across southern NM and west TX. Still, MUCAPE potentially increasing
   to around 1000-1500 J/kg in combination with the strong shear could
   encourage elevated supercells mainly Monday evening/night from parts
   of southeastern NM into west TX. If this occurs, isolated large hail
   would probably be the main threat, although strong/gusty winds
   cannot be ruled out where instability becomes maximized. 

   There appears to be some chance for near-surface-based thunderstorm
   development by Monday afternoon across parts of the lower Rio Grande
   Valley in southern NM if the low-level moisture return is on the
   more aggressive side of the model guidance envelope. Currently, this
   potential appears too uncertain to expand the Marginal risk area any
   farther westward at this time.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
   Wind:      5%     - Marginal
   Hail:      5%     - Marginal

   ..Gleason.. 03/10/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: March 10, 2019
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