SPC AC 140700
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Sun Mar 14 2021
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Appreciable severe risk is not evident at this time across the U.S.
An upper low initially over the central Plains is forecast to shift
northward, weakening with time ahead of the next upper system
progged to dig southeastward across California and Nevada through
the day, and into Arizona late.
At the surface, a weakening front will continue to dissipate as it
shifts eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. A cold front is
also forecast to move southeastward across California and Nevada,
and eventually into the Desert Southwest, ahead of the
aforementioned upper system
Showers are forecast across California and into the Great Basin
during the day, in conjunction with the advance of the upper system.
An occasional/embedded lightning flash may occur, but any coverage
should remain too sparse to warrant a thunder area.
In the central Gulf Coast region/Mid South, a zone of weak
convection will likely shift west-to-east across the area, in tandem
with the weakening surface front. However, warm air in the 700 to
600mb layer should hinder deeper convection/lightning across much of
the area. A stronger cell or two may occur during the afternoon
near peak heating, across the northeastern Mississippi/northern
Alabama/southern Tennessee area. However, while a locally stronger
wind gust or brief tornado cannot be ruled out entirely, any
severe-weather potential appears too low to justify issuance of a
severe risk area attm.
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