SPC AC 260636
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2022
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
The severe-thunderstorm threat currently appears low on Sunday.
A mid/upper-level cyclone initially centered near the mid-MS Valley
is forecast to evolve into a negatively tilted shortwave trough as
it ejects quickly northeastward on Sunday, moving offshore of New
England by early Monday morning. A surface cyclone is forecast to
move across parts of the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes during the
day and then move across New England Sunday night, as an attendant
cold front sweeps through much of the eastern CONUS by early Monday
..FL Panhandle northward into the Carolinas...
Convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from the FL
Panhandle into parts of GA and southeast AL, with widespread
precipitation farther north into the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and
Ohio Valley. Strong deep-layer wind fields will support organized
convection, and a few strong storms will be possible early in the
day across parts of GA and north FL. However, with generally weak
buoyancy and a tendency for the strongest large-scale ascent to move
quickly northeastward away from the region, a general weakening
trend is expected through the morning hours.
Richer low-level moisture may spread into the Carolinas by
afternoon, with wind profiles remaining conditionally favorable for
organized convection. However, weak diurnal heating and poor
midlevel lapse rates will limit buoyancy, which should tend to limit
the potential for sustained deep convection in the absence of
stronger large-scale ascent. At this time, confidence in sustained
organized convection remains low, but low severe probabilities may
eventually be needed across some part of the Southeast and/or
Carolinas, depending on shorter-term observational and guidance
...Ohio Valley and vicinity...
In the wake of widespread morning precipitation, low-topped
convection may develop in the vicinity of the ejecting shortwave
trough on Sunday afternoon across parts of the OH Valley. At this
time, buoyancy guidance ranges from very weak to nil, but with
favorable ascent associated with the shortwave trough and strong
low-level wind fields, even relatively weak low-topped convection
may be able to produce some convectively enhanced gusts. If
confidence increases regarding the potential for sufficiently
robust/sustained convection during the afternoon, wind probabilities
may eventually be needed across some part of the region.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z