Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Nov 12, 2018 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Nov 12 05:29:27 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20181112 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20181112 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 120529

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1129 PM CST Sun Nov 11 2018

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorm potential will linger across portions of the
   Southeastern States, including the Florida Peninsula.

   ...Southeast...

   Severe probs will not be forecast this period. This is predicated on
   surface front advancing off the NC coast by the beginning of the
   day2 period. If this boundary is slower to move offshore, a strongly
   sheared and potentially buoyant air mass over eastern NC may need
   severe probs prior to 18z.

   Other wise, upper ridge is forecast to hold off the Southeast coast
   through day2 with negligible height changes expected across FL into
   coastal Carolinas. Upstream, a substantial upper trough will dig
   into TX during the day1 period then eject into the lower MS Valley
   by sunrise Wednesday morning. Seasonally high PW air mass will
   remain in place across the eastern Gulf basin but much weaker
   buoyancy should extend downstream across FL and adjacent warm
   sector. Latest model guidance suggests convection should develop
   along/north of a pronounced surface front that should sag southeast
   into the northern FL Peninsula during the afternoon. However, south
   of this boundary, poor lapse rates and lack of large-scale forcing
   should limit thunderstorm potential to more isolated activity. At
   this time it appears the prospect for severe thunderstorms will
   remain low, primarily due to upper ridging and weak lapse rates.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:     <5%     - None
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Darrow.. 11/12/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: November 12, 2018
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities