SPC AC 200629
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the California coast on
Wednesday but no severe thunderstorms are expected.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to progress eastward
across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley during the period.
The approach of this shortwave will help induce surface cyclogenesis
is anticipated along the western periphery of a stalled frontal zone
extending across the Gulf of Mexico. However, the resulting low is
expected to remain over the western Gulf, precluding any warm sector
penetration inland and keeping any instability well offshore.
Farther west, a deep upper trough will move over the West Coast
during the second half of the period. Abundant cloud cover is
anticipated ahead of this system, limiting diurnal heating. Even so,
cool temperatures aloft will contribute to steep lapse rates and
modestly unstable profiles. Bands of showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected along and just ahead of the surface front
associated with the upper trough. The isolated thunderstorm threat
is only expected to extend about 50-70 miles inland with the cooler
temperatures and/or reduced low-level moisture contributing to more
stability farther inland.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: <2% - None
Wind: <5% - None
Hail: <5% - None
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z