SPC AC 270600

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1200 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Saturday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   Low-level moisture will gradually return northward Saturday across
   parts of TX into the ArkLaTex ahead of a southward-advancing cold
   front. Enhanced mid-level west-southwesterly flow over the southern
   Plains and lower MS Valley will be tied to two somewhat distinct jet
   streams, which should tend to merge with time Saturday night. A
   stout low-level capping inversion will likely suppress convective
   potential across the developing warm sector through much of the day,
   and probably most of Saturday evening as well. Ascent associated
   with a persistent south-southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to
   eventually encourage at least isolated thunderstorm development
   across parts of east TX into LA/AR and vicinity Saturday night. This
   activity will likely remain elevated above a near-surface stable
   layer. MUCAPE should remain fairly muted owing to the incomplete
   low-level moisture return, but values up to 500-750 J/kg may support
   some small hail with the more robust updrafts given the strong
   deep-layer shear expected.

   ..Gleason.. 01/27/2023

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z