SPC AC 120646
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CST Sun Mar 12 2023
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the Florida Peninsula on Monday. Large hail and damaging winds
should be the main threats.
A large-scale upper trough centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes
will move across the eastern states on Monday. The southern portion
of this trough will persist over much of the Southeast. A belt of
40-60+ kt mid-level westerly flow is forecast to be in place over
much of the FL Peninsula. At the surface, a cold front will shift
southward across FL through the period. Generally mid to upper 60s
surface dewpoints will likely be in place ahead of this front. As
diurnal heating of this moist airmass occurs, the development of
around 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE seems probable.
The enhanced mid-level flow associated with the southern portion of
the upper trough will likely foster 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear and
thunderstorm organization. Although low-level convergence along the
front should remain limited owing to mostly westerly winds in the
boundary layer, any convection that does form may organize into a
supercell or small bowing cluster. With cool temperatures aloft and
modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity may pose an
isolated threat for large hail. Occasional damaging winds may also
occur as low-level lapse rates steepen with daytime heating. Overall
thunderstorm coverage may remain rather isolated owing to the
limited convergence along the cold front.
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