SPC AC 230623

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1223 AM CST Sun Jan 23 2022

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Texas Coast Monday,
   but severe thunderstorms are not expected.

   ...Synopsis...
   A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to be centered over
   Far West TX early Monday before then progressing eastward across the
   TX Hill Country and southeast TX throughout the day. This shortwave
   is expected to lose amplitude as it moves eastward and will likely
   be centered over the Lower MS Valley by early Tuesday morning. 

   Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this shortwave over the
   lower/middle TX Coast Monday morning, with the resulting low then
   progressing northeastward through the western Gulf of Mexico. This
   track should keep any more moist/buoyant air offshore, minimizing
   the potential for robust thunderstorms over the TX coast. Even so, a
   few elevated thunderstorms are still possible along the coast amid
   strong large-scale forcing for ascent and warm-air advection.

   Elsewhere, northern-stream upper troughing will remain in place from
   the northern High Plains into much of eastern CONUS, reinforced by a
   series of embedded shortwave troughs. The progression of these
   shortwaves will also help reinforce the dry and stable conditions in
   place across the majority of the central and eastern CONUS.

   ..Mosier.. 01/23/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z