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Mar 5, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 5 06:00:39 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240305 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20240305 0700Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 050600

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1200 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across
   parts of the Florida Peninsula and the southern Plains. Occasional
   large hail and gusty winds should be the main threats with this
   activity.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper trough will move northeastward across the Southeast and
   Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. A related, weak surface low is likewise
   forecast to develop northeastward from GA/SC into NC and southern VA
   through Wednesday evening. A moist low-level airmass will be in
   place across these areas ahead of a cold front. Still, greater
   instability (and isolated severe potential) is generally expected to
   remain over parts of FL, and offshore over the warmer Gulf Stream
   waters.

   Separate areas of thunderstorms may occur through the period across
   parts of coastal southern CA as an upper trough/low with associated
   cold mid-level temperatures moves eastward, and across parts of the
   Great Basin. Weak forecast instability over these regions should
   limit any appreciable severe threat.

   ...Central/South Florida...
   Cool temperatures at mid levels (500 mb temperatures around -10 to
   -12C) should aid in weak to moderate instability developing across
   parts of the FL Peninsula through Wednesday afternoon, although the
   potential for ongoing morning convection may hinder daytime heating
   to some extent. Still, ascent associated with the upper trough, and
   a related mid/upper-level jet, should help sustain thunderstorms
   moving eastward from the eastern Gulf across the FL Peninsula
   through the morning and perhaps early afternoon. Even though
   deep-layer shear may only strengthen to around 25-35 kt, somewhat
   elongated/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels may support an
   isolated hail threat with any of the stronger cores that can
   persist. Occasional damaging winds also appear possible with
   convective downdrafts as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen
   with daytime heating. The potential for redevelopment behind
   early-day convection appears rather uncertain/conditional, as the
   better forcing attendant to the upper trough should be moving
   northeastward and away from the FL Peninsula by Wednesday afternoon.

   ...Southern/Central Plains...
   Modest low-level moisture should advance northward across parts of
   the southern/central Plains through the period as weak cyclogenesis
   occurs over the southern High Plains. Even though large-scale ascent
   should remain modest beneath a strong southern-stream mid/
   upper-level jet, some guidance suggests that robust convection may
   develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of north-central TX
   in the vicinity of a weak front/dryline intersection. Around 30-40
   kt of deep-layer shear in combination with steepened low/mid-level
   lapse rates and at least weak instability should support some
   updraft organization if convection can initiate. Isolated large hail
   appears possible with the stronger cores, along with occasional
   severe winds. Have included a Marginal Risk across parts of
   north-central TX to account for this potential, although the overall
   threat remains somewhat conditional given nebulous large-scale
   forcing. Generally elevated convection may also occur across a
   broader part of the southern/central Plains Wednesday night into
   early Thursday morning as a southerly low-level jet strengthens
   across these regions. This activity should remain sub-severe,
   although small hail appears possible.

   ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: March 05, 2024
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