SPC AC 130641
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CST Sun Mar 13 2022
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS AND THE ARKLATEX...
Thunderstorms associated with large hail and isolated wind damage
are expected to develop across parts of east Texas and the Arklatex
Monday afternoon and evening.
An upper-level trough will move from the southern Rockies eastward
to the southern Plains on Monday, as a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet
moves through the base of the trough. At the surface, a cold front
will advance quickly southeastward across the southern Plains, as
low-level moisture streams northward into east Texas and western
Louisiana. Surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the 55 to 60 F
range across parts of northeast Texas by late afternoon. A corridor
of moderate instability may develop ahead of the front across parts
of east Texas. Convection is expected to initiate along the
northwestern edge of this corridor of instability near the
Dallas/Fort Worth Metro around 00Z/Tuesday. Thunderstorms will
increase in intensity and move eastward across northeast Texas.
Other storms should develop further south across parts of east Texas
during the early evening. A complex of storms should move across the
Arklatex from mid evening into the early overnight period.
The left exit region of the mid-level jet is forecast to move across
northeast Texas Monday afternoon. This will increase lift and
deep-layer shear, which will coincide with increasing instability.
This will make conditions favorable for severe storms by late
afternoon. During the late afternoon, NAM forecast soundings to the
southeast of Dallas have MLCAPE reaching 1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear
peaking near 75 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates reaching the 7.5 to
8.0 C/km range. This should support supercell and large-hail
development. The potential for large hail should be greatest during
the late afternoon and early evening as instability becomes
maximized. Supercells may also produce isolated damaging wind gusts.
One limiting factor is that low-level moisture will not have much
time to return northward ahead of the approaching system. This could
limit severe threat coverage and magnitude. The severe threat
should become more isolated as a complex of strong storms moves
eastward into southwest Arkansas western Louisiana during the mid to
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z