SPC AC 280645

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1245 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2023

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   THE UPPER TEXAS COAST/EAST TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
   STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Sunday
   across parts of the upper Texas Coast/east Texas into the central
   Gulf Coast states. Some hail may occur with thunderstorms in east
   Texas. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds and a couple of
   tornadoes should be the main threats.

   ...Upper Texas Coast/East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast
   States...
   Mainly elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Sunday
   morning from parts of the upper Texas Coast into the lower MS
   Valley. This activity will largely be tied to modest warm advection
   associated with a 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet, and it may
   pose an isolated threat for marginally severe hail as MUCAPE
   gradually increases through the morning. A lead impulse embedded
   within broadly cyclonic mid-level flow is forecast to develop
   northeastward from the MS Valley towards the East Coast through the
   day. A southern-stream shortwave trough should advance from TX
   across the lower MS Valley and Southeast through the period. In
   response to these developments, a broad and somewhat unfocused area
   of modestly enhanced southwesterly low-level winds will overspread
   parts of the central Gulf Coast states by Sunday evening. A surface
   cold front should advance slowly southeastward over central/east TX
   through Sunday night.

   Latest guidance suggests that mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints
   will attempt to spread northward in tandem with a marine warm front
   across parts of LA, coastal/southern MS/AL, and the FL Panhandle.
   Even though instability will likely remain weak owing to poor
   mid-level lapse rates and limited diurnal heating, around 500-750
   J/kg of MLCAPE should be sufficient to support a threat for
   surface-based thunderstorms. 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear will
   easily support convective organization, and around 100-200 m2/s2 of
   0-1 km SRH should also foster some low-level updraft rotation. The
   morning convection associated with the low-level jet should spread
   eastward across LA/MS/AL through the day. Much of this activity will
   remain elevated to the north of the surface warm front. But, there
   is a chance for surface-based thunderstorms to occur across parts of
   southern LA into coastal/southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle,
   especially where surface dewpoints can reach into the upper 60s as
   some guidance suggests. Occasional damaging winds and a couple of
   tornadoes should be the main threats as convection moves eastward
   Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.

   Additional thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon along/near the
   cold front in east TX. Somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates
   emanating from northern Mexico should overspread this region. With a
   broad mid-level southwesterly jet persisting over much of TX into
   the lower MS Valley, strong deep-layer shear combined with 500-1000
   J/kg MLCAPE (locally stronger) should support an isolated threat for
   severe hail with any discrete cells that can develop. Occasional
   damaging winds may also occur as these thunderstorms move into the
   upper TX Coast and southwestern LA through early Sunday evening.
   Large-scale forcing aloft will be somewhat nebulous across this
   region in the wake of the southern-stream shortwave trough and as
   the low-level jet shifts eastward through the day. Still, isolated
   thunderstorms appear possible as low-level convergence increases
   along the cold front by late Sunday afternoon.

   ..Gleason.. 01/28/2023

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