SPC AC 130641

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1241 AM CST Sun Mar 13 2022

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   EAST TEXAS AND THE ARKLATEX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with large hail and isolated wind damage
   are expected to develop across parts of east Texas and the Arklatex
   Monday afternoon and evening.

   ...East Texas/Arklatex...
   An upper-level trough will move from the southern Rockies eastward
   to the southern Plains on Monday, as a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet
   moves through the base of the trough. At the surface, a cold front
   will advance quickly southeastward across the southern Plains, as
   low-level moisture streams northward into east Texas and western
   Louisiana. Surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the 55 to 60 F
   range across parts of northeast Texas by late afternoon. A corridor
   of moderate instability may develop ahead of the front across parts
   of east Texas. Convection is expected to initiate along the
   northwestern edge of this corridor of instability near the
   Dallas/Fort Worth Metro around 00Z/Tuesday. Thunderstorms will
   increase in intensity and move eastward across northeast Texas.
   Other storms should develop further south across parts of east Texas
   during the early evening. A complex of storms should move across the
   Arklatex from mid evening into the early overnight period.

   The left exit region of the mid-level jet is forecast to move across
   northeast Texas Monday afternoon. This will increase lift and
   deep-layer shear, which will coincide with increasing instability.
   This will make conditions favorable for severe storms by late
   afternoon. During the late afternoon, NAM forecast soundings to the
   southeast of Dallas have MLCAPE reaching 1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear
   peaking near 75 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates reaching the 7.5 to
   8.0 C/km range. This should support supercell and large-hail
   development. The potential for large hail should be greatest during
   the late afternoon and early evening as instability becomes
   maximized. Supercells may also produce isolated damaging wind gusts.
   One limiting factor is that low-level moisture will not have much
   time to return northward ahead of the approaching system. This could
   limit severe threat coverage and magnitude.  The severe threat
   should become more isolated as a complex of strong storms moves
   eastward into southwest Arkansas western Louisiana during the mid to
   late evening.

   ..Broyles.. 03/13/2022

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