SPC AC 110525

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1125 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe threat is expected across the southern half of the Florida
   Peninsula Monday.

   ...FL...

   Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across the
   southeastern US into the northern FL peninsula Monday as a
   well-defined short-wave trough digs into GA by 18z. Diffluent flow
   aloft will overspread the Peninsula and large-scale forcing for
   ascent should aid convection ahead of a sharp frontal zone. 11/00z
   NAM is a bit more aggressive with organized deep convection across
   south FL than earlier guidance and there is some concern that higher
   severe probs may be warranted...especially if forecast buoyancy is
   as great as the NAM suggests. While GFS does not exhibit
   particularly steep lapse rates or modest instability, it appears
   strengthening shear profiles and large-scale support should result
   in robust convection across the southern half of the Peninsula prior
   to frontal passage. Damaging winds are the greatest severe threat
   but deep-layer shear would support organized rotating updrafts and
   the possibility for supercells. Will not increase severe probs at
   this time but a SLGT risk may be warranted if confidence in this
   scenario increases.

   ..Darrow.. 03/11/2018

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z