SPC AC 120646

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1246 AM CST Sun Mar 12 2023

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
   the Florida Peninsula on Monday. Large hail and damaging winds
   should be the main threats.

   ...Florida Peninsula...
   A large-scale upper trough centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes
   will move across the eastern states on Monday. The southern portion
   of this trough will persist over much of the Southeast. A belt of
   40-60+ kt mid-level westerly flow is forecast to be in place over
   much of the FL Peninsula. At the surface, a cold front will shift
   southward across FL through the period. Generally mid to upper 60s
   surface dewpoints will likely be in place ahead of this front. As
   diurnal heating of this moist airmass occurs, the development of
   around 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE seems probable.

   The enhanced mid-level flow associated with the southern portion of
   the upper trough will likely foster 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear and
   thunderstorm organization. Although low-level convergence along the
   front should remain limited owing to mostly westerly winds in the
   boundary layer, any convection that does form may organize into a
   supercell or small bowing cluster. With cool temperatures aloft and
   modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity may pose an
   isolated threat for large hail. Occasional damaging winds may also
   occur as low-level lapse rates steepen with daytime heating. Overall
   thunderstorm coverage may remain rather isolated owing to the
   limited convergence along the cold front.

   ..Gleason.. 03/12/2023

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z