Mar 4, 2021 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 4 05:17:55 UTC 2021 (20210304 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20210304 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20210304 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20210304 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20210304 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20210304 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 040517

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1117 PM CST Wed Mar 03 2021

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

   ...Synopsis...

   An upper trough over the southern Plains will develop southeast
   toward the Gulf coast states on Friday. Modest moisture (dewpoints
   in the 50s to low 60s near the coast) will spread across eastern TX
   and LA ahead of a surface trough and cold front. As midlevel lapse
   rates steepen with the approach of the upper trough, enough elevated
   instability will exist for isolated thunderstorm development. This
   activity will remain elevated and weak, and severe storms are not
   expected. Surface high pressure across much of the rest of the U.S.
   will preclude thunderstorm activity elsewhere, as a dry and stable
   air mass prevails. The exception may be across parts of the Pacific
   Northwest coast. An upper shortwave trough will move onshore late in
   the period, along with a surface cold front. Bands of showers will
   move onshore through the period, but thunderstorm potential appears
   low.

   ..Leitman.. 03/04/2021

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z