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Sep 17, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Sep 17 17:25:48 UTC 2021 (Print Version | 20210917 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20210917 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 171725

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1225 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for organized severe storms is expected to remain low
   across the U.S. mainland on Saturday.

   ...Great Basin area...

   A shortwave trough now situated off the southern California coast
   will accelerate northeast into the Great Basin Saturday in response
   to increasing southwesterly winds aloft associated with an upper
   trough that will amplify across the Pacific Northwest. Scattered
   showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Saturday
   within plume of subtropical moisture along the warm conveyor belt
   from western AZ to eastern NV and western UT. Activity will spread
   east through AZ and UT through the morning and into the afternoon.
   It currently appears that widespread multi-layer clouds and areas of
   precipitation will limit destabilization potential, especially over
   much of UT and northern AZ where vertical shear profiles will be
   more supportive of organized storms. Will therefore maintain less
   than 5% severe probabilities for this update. However, should it
   become apparent that instability will be greater than currently
   anticipated, a categorical upgrade may be needed in day 1 outlooks.

   ..Dial.. 09/17/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: September 17, 2021
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