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< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Jun 24, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 24 17:27:14 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240624 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20240624 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 241727

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
   central Great Plains and Midwest, mainly during from late afternoon
   and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two may
   occur.

   ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great
   Lakes...
   Overall forecast confidence for the most likely outcome tomorrow is
   low with large spread in potential scenarios remaining evident. How
   MCS activity evolves later today into tonight will strongly modulate
   tomorrow's potential risk. Despite the uncertainty, the general
   trend is for expansion of level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south/westward
   in parts of the Great Plains to Mid-MS Valley region where
   confidence in storm coverage during the late afternoon and evening
   is relatively higher than across the Great Lakes.

   An MCS or remnants of one should be ongoing Tuesday morning in the
   central to southern Great Lakes vicinity. At least an isolated
   severe threat may accompany this convection, but an overall
   weakening trend is expected in mid to late morning. Meanwhile, the
   cold front that moves through the Dakotas/MN today will take on a
   more west-to-east orientation from parts of central to eastern NE
   the northern IL vicinity by tomorrow afternoon, with potential for
   one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to
   locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 4000 J/kg) will likely
   develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly
   influenced by morning convection. 

   Outside the influence of any MCVs, mid-level west-northwesterly flow
   will be decreasing with southern extent across the warm-moist
   sector. It should still be adequate for multicell clustering and
   upscale growth with south-southeast moving cold pools. It is
   possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will
   intensify around midday into the afternoon. More probable scenario
   is for widely scattered storm development along the primary front
   and any remnant outflow boundaries, centered over the Mid-MO to
   Mid-MS Valleys. Isolated high-based convection may also develop
   within a hot and well-mixed regime across the higher plains from
   western KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. 

   The favorable thermodynamic environment will support large hail
   potential with potential for discrete supercells, along the NE/IA
   portion of the front. Very large hail is most probable along the
   western flank of this development amid moderate west-northwesterly
   mid/upper flow. Clustering/upscale growth will probably occur within
   multiple separate regimes, which should result in two or more
   corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat
   could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and
   possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the
   organized severe risk remains rather uncertain. 

   Further outlook adjustments may be required in later outlook cycles,
   depending on evolution of D1 convection and potentially greater
   predictability across guidance.

   ..Grams.. 06/24/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: June 24, 2024
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