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Feb 7, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 7 17:19:32 UTC 2025 (Print Version | 20250207 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20250207 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 071719

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1119 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the
   Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night, but the risk for severe
   weather appears negligible.

   ...Discussion...
   Mid/upper flow is in the process of amplifying across the northern
   mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, and
   models continue to indicate further amplification into and through
   this period.  This includes building mid-level ridging across the
   northeastern Pacific through Alaska, and subsequent digging
   downstream troughing across and to the lee of the Canadian and
   northern U.S. Rockies.  Otherwise, the confluent downstream
   westerlies are forecast to remain generally zonal across the
   interior U.S. through offshore western Atlantic, between broad
   ridging, centered over the subtropic latitudes of northern Mexico
   into the western Atlantic, and a broad vortex, centered near the
   northeastern Canadian Arctic latitudes.  At mid/upper levels, the
   subtropical ridging may maintain considerable influence as far north
   as the southern into central tier of the United States.

   Within the confluent regime across the northern tier of the U.S., it
   still appears that at least a couple of short wave perturbations
   might loosely consolidate into larger-scale, but still
   low-amplitude, troughing across the Great Lakes into Northeast by
   late Saturday through Saturday night.  This is forecast to be
   trailed by a similar perturbation accelerating from the Great Basin
   into north central Great Plains.  Beneath and just to the south of
   this regime, another cold surface ridge is likely to be in the
   process of building to the lee of the northern Rockies by early
   Saturday, reinforcing cold air already entrenched to the east of the
   Rockies.  It still appears that the shallow southern periphery of
   this cold air will initially be in the process of eroding beneath a
   continuing south to southwesterly return flow across the Ozark
   Plateau into Ohio Valley.  However, models indicate that associated
   low-level warming and moistening will largely remain confined
   beneath dry, warming layers farther aloft, as the reinforcing cold
   intrusion progresses south (and reaches the Gulf Coast state by 12Z
   Sunday).

   ...Ohio Valley...
   A pre-frontal corridor of boundary-layer warming and moistening near
   a developing frontal wave may contribute to weak potential
   instability, coincident with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric
   wind fields, across the southern/eastern Kentucky vicinity by late
   Saturday afternoon.  However, based on latest model output, it
   remains unlikely that forcing for ascent within the warm sector will
   be sufficient to overcome inhibition.  

   Weak elevated thunderstorm development still appears possible
   Saturday through Saturday night, within an initial
   lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime near/north of the Ohio
   River into Allegheny Plateau and, later, near/south of the Ohio
   River along the undercutting southward advancing cold front.

   ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

        
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Page last modified: February 07, 2025
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