SPC AC 031703

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1103 AM CST Fri Dec 03 2021

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United
   States on Saturday.

   ...South-central states...

   A series of weak mid/upper shortwave impulses will migrate eastward
   across the southern Plains and the lower MS Valley/Southeast
   vicinity on Saturday. At the surface, a weak low will drift east
   across OK/north TX. A dryline will extend south/southwest from the
   low into central TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward
   across the Ozark Plateau and TN Valley vicinity as surface high
   pressure shifts east from the northern/central Plains to the
   Mid-Atlantic. 

   Boundary-layer moisture will increase on southerly low-level flow
   across much of eastern TX into eastern OK, the Ozarks and lower MS
   Valley. However, a warm layer around 1-2 km will preclude
   surface-based convective potential. Nevertheless, steep midlevel
   lapse rates will aid in weak destabilization and isolated
   thunderstorms are possible. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will
   remain weak ahead of the upper shortwave trough, with effective
   shear magnitudes expected to remain less than 25 kt. This should
   limit potential for organized severe thunderstorms amid elevated
   convection.

   ..Leitman.. 12/03/2021

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