SPC AC 261718

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
   NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday
   evening into early morning Monday across parts of the northern and
   central Great Plains. Large hail should be the predominant hazard.

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong upper-level jetlet will eject through the basal portion of
   a broad trough over the West. This should overspread the southern
   Rockies into the central High Plains by Sunday night. Primary
   surface cyclone will diurnally deepen over the central High Plains,
   with a secondary low downstream of the Bighorn Mountains. The
   primary low will advance northeast into the central SD vicinity by
   12Z Monday. A north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline will extend
   through the southern High Plains.

   ...Northern Great Plains to NE...
   Large-scale ascent will be focused across this region, especially
   Sunday evening/night as mid-level height falls/upper-level
   diffluence increase ahead of the approaching trough/jet streak. Two
   corridors of initial storm development are apparent by early
   evening, centered on the NE Panhandle and southeast MT, just ahead
   of the aforementioned surface lows. Rich low-level moisture will
   likely remain displaced to the southeast of both regions, but
   adequate moisture should be present for a few supercells with
   low-level southeasterlies beneath strengthening southwesterly
   mid/upper winds. The breadth of the uncapped warm-moist sector will
   be confined though and convection will likely become predominately
   elevated Sunday night. However, increasing convective coverage is
   anticipated within the exit region of a strong low-level jet nosing
   into the Mid-MO Valley. Large hail should be the overarching threat,
   with a mixed wind/hail threat possibly evolving amid signals of a
   linear cluster into western/central SD.

   ...KS to west TX...
   A very conditional severe threat will extend along the dryline. A
   plume of large buoyancy coincident with a supercell wind profile
   will exist from northwest TX into western KS. Forcing for ascent,
   outside of a weakly retreating dryline circulation, is nebulous.
   Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent or less,
   outside of the TX Big Bend during the late afternoon and evening.

   ..Grams.. 04/26/2025

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