SPC AC 121704

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1204 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in a corridor across West
   Virginia, and perhaps into portions of eastern Kentucky and
   southwestern Virginia, late tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon and evening.
   Small to marginally severe hail and potentially damaging wind gusts
   are the main concerns.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern half of the CONUS
   as a 500 mb cut-off low meanders over the Interior West and a second
   upper trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Sunday). A surface
   low will translate across the eastern OH Valley and Mid Atlantic
   states during the day, promoting deep-layer ascent amid just enough
   moisture return to support thunderstorm development (a couple of
   which may be strong). Meanwhile, steep lapse rates associated with
   the 500 mb low over the Four Corners, in conjunction with adequate
   surface heating and orographic lift, may support isolated
   thunderstorm development. Daytime heating of a moist airmass may
   also encourage the development of a few thunderstorms over the
   southern FL Peninsula.

   ...Central Appalachians...
   As the surface low progresses toward the Mid Atlantic, a cold front
   will sag southeastward across the eastern OH Valley into the central
   Appalachians by afternoon peak heating, providing lift for at least
   isolated thunderstorm development. Surface dewpoints are expected to
   only reach the mid 50s F. However, 7+ C/km low and mid-level lapse
   rates may support over 1000 J/kg SBCAPE, that combined with rapidly
   strengthening vertical wind profiles and 35+ kts of effective bulk
   shear, may support organized multicells immediately ahead of the
   cold front. A couple of damaging gusts or instances of small to
   marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out with the stronger storms.

   ..Squitieri.. 10/12/2024

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