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Jun 14, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 14 17:29:43 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240614 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20240614 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 141729

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z


   Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail
   are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday,
   across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central
   North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska
   to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and
   wind possible in the northern Great Plains.

   ...Mid-MO Valley...
   A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four
   Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great
   Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should
   contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced
   from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat
   will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the
   Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will
   be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be
   relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor
   of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by
   greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should
   develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley.
   Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV.
   At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the
   enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along
   with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late
   afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain
   focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined
   level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast
   extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate
   convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal
   severe hail/wind threat Saturday night.

   ...Northern Great Plains...
   A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest
   into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee
   cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the
   northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central
   Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday
   night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop
   during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough,
   over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. 

   The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat
   uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a
   plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse
   rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of
   eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the
   approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based
   supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF
   guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger
   buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests
   that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold
   pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas.
   Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe
   wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level
   1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence
   in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring.

   ..Grams.. 06/14/2024



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