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< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Jul 21, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jul 21 17:30:20 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240721 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20240721 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 211730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.

   ...Discussion...
   A largely unchanging upper flow field is forecast to persist across
   the U.S. on Monday, with a ridge over the west, and weak/cyclonic
   flow covering much of the central and eastern states.

   At the surface, a weak surface baroclinic zone will remain in place
   from the Northeast southwestward to Texas, while a weak/largely
   nondescript pattern prevails elsewhere.

   Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across a large
   portion of the country, as in previous days.  A stronger storm or
   two could affect portions of New York, where an amply unstable
   environment will combine with shear possibly supporting local
   multicell organization.  Risk appears too low to warrant inclusion
   of severe wind probabilities at this time.  

   Convection is also expected to develop once again across the
   Mogollon Rim during the afternoon, and with modest northerly flow
   aloft, some southward/southwestward propagation of storms into the
   lower deserts is again a possibility.  While the deep mixed layer
   could support isolated stronger gusts, risk at this time does not
   appear to warrant introduction of 5% risk.

   Elsewhere, aside from a sporadic, isolated stronger storm,
   severe-weather is not anticipated CONUS-wide.

   ..Goss.. 07/21/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: July 21, 2024
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