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Mar 26, 2023 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 26 17:28:08 UTC 2023 (Print Version | 20230326 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20230326 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 261728

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1228 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z


   Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
   Southeast Monday afternoon with a threat for large hail and damaging
   winds. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across central
   Texas Monday evening, and the Gulf Coast Monday night. Large hail
   and occasional damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from
   these storms.

   Mostly zonal flow is expected across the southern Plains into the
   Southeast on Monday with neutral height falls/rises expected across
   the region. A surface low will move off the North Carolina coast
   near mid-day Monday with a cold front extending southwest to
   southern MS/AL where it is expected to become stationary and extend
   back into central Texas. This frontal zone will be the focus for
   strong to severe thunderstorms during the day Monday and into Monday
   night/Tuesday morning. 

   ...Southern Georgia and Vicinity...
   Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
   from east-central Alabama into northern Georgia along the cold
   front. South of this cold front, temperatures are expected to warm
   into the upper 70s to near 80 with dewpoints in the mid 60s,
   yielding MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg. This instability will support
   strengthening of ongoing storms and new development along the front.
   Long/straight hodographs will favor splitting supercells, with the
   right-movers favored due to storm motion off of/ahead of the front.
   Veering of surface flow as temperatures warm and the boundary layer
   mixes should mitigate the tornado threat with large hail and
   damaging winds as the primary threat. 

   ...Central Texas into the Gulf Coast...
   A large hail threat may develop Monday afternoon across central
   Texas in a region of weak isentropic ascent with MUCAPE around
   1000-1500 J/kg. If forcing is sufficient for storm development, 90
   kts of LCL-EL shear will support supercells with the potential for
   large hail. Most 12Z CAM guidance shows storms in the region, but
   intensity is relatively muted. Nonetheless, given the environment,
   at least isolated large hail is possible. 

   Overnight, a surface high pressure center will move into the
   northern Plains. This will lead to a tightening pressure gradient
   across the southern Plains and advance the surface front southward.
   As this front moves south into a progressively more unstable
   airmass, thunderstorm chances increase. MUCAPE around 1000 to 1500
   J/kg is expected from central Texas to the Louisiana coast with
   moderate mid-level flow providing ample shear for storm
   organization. Therefore, a conditional supercell threat is possible
   from central Texas to the central Gulf Coast. Most storms will
   likely be elevated due to the front as the primary forcing mechanism
   and its southward movement during the early morning hours on
   Tuesday. However, some guidance has a few cells developing ahead of
   the front and remaining surface based for an hour or two.

   ..Bentley.. 03/26/2023



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