SPC AC 051652
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Wed Oct 05 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Severe storms are unlikely on Thursday.
A broad mid/upper trough will envelop much of the eastern half of
the CONUS on Thursday. Several shortwave troughs embedded within
this larger-scale system will pivot across the Upper Midwest, Great
Lakes and Northeast. While some enhancement to westerly midlevel
flow will accompany these shortwave troughs, vertical shear will
generally remain weak. At the surface, low pressure will develop
over southern Quebec and the Northeast. A cold front associated with
the low will develop south/southeast across the central Plains,
mid/upper MS Valley and OH Valley vicinity through the period.
Cooler midlevel temperatures will support modestly steep midlevel
lapse rates and contribute to weak instability. However, a
seasonally dry airmass will be in place ahead of the cold front
across much of the Plains/Midwest/Northeast, limiting stronger
destabilization. A few instances of thunderstorms will still be
possible ahead of the front across parts of NE, the Lake Michigan
vicinity and parts of New England, though severe thunderstorm
potential is not expected.
Diurnal thunderstorm activity is also expected again across portions
of the Southwest where steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to
weak instability amid abundant midlevel moisture. Weak vertical
shear and modest instability will limit severe potential here as
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z