SPC AC 051652

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1152 AM CDT Wed Oct 05 2022

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are unlikely on Thursday.

   ...Synopsis...

   A broad mid/upper trough will envelop much of the eastern half of
   the CONUS on Thursday. Several shortwave troughs embedded within
   this larger-scale system will pivot across the Upper Midwest, Great
   Lakes and Northeast. While some enhancement to westerly midlevel
   flow will accompany these shortwave troughs, vertical shear will
   generally remain weak. At the surface, low pressure will develop
   over southern Quebec and the Northeast. A cold front associated with
   the low will develop south/southeast across the central Plains,
   mid/upper MS Valley and OH Valley vicinity through the period.
   Cooler midlevel temperatures will support modestly steep midlevel
   lapse rates and contribute to weak instability. However, a
   seasonally dry airmass will be in place ahead of the cold front
   across much of the Plains/Midwest/Northeast, limiting stronger
   destabilization. A few instances of thunderstorms will still be
   possible ahead of the front across parts of NE, the Lake Michigan
   vicinity and parts of New England, though severe thunderstorm
   potential is not expected.

   Diurnal thunderstorm activity is also expected again across portions
   of the Southwest where steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to
   weak instability amid abundant midlevel moisture. Weak vertical
   shear and modest instability will limit severe potential here as
   well.

   ..Leitman.. 10/05/2022

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