SPC AC 071729

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1229 PM CDT Sun Aug 07 2022

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The severe thunderstorm threat is expected to be relatively low on
   Monday.

   ...Lower MI into parts of the Midwest...
   A midlevel shortwave trough will move quickly from the upper Great
   Lakes toward parts of Ontario and Quebec on Monday, as a trailing
   cold front moves through parts of the Midwest and eventually the
   lower Great Lakes. Depending on the extent of diurnal heating that
   can occur in the wake of morning convection, moderate buoyancy may
   develop by afternoon within a very moist environment. Deep-layer
   will be modest at best across lower MI, and even weaker farther
   south, but a belt of somewhat enhanced flow (25-35 kt) in the
   850-700 mb layer may support storm clusters capable of isolated wind
   damage, if sufficient heating and steepening of low-level lapse
   rates can occur. Wind probabilities may eventually be needed for
   portions of this region, depending on how much recovery/heating can
   occur in the wake of morning cloudiness and convection.  

   ...Arizona...
   A few strong storms will again be possible across parts of Arizona,
   mainly across southeast AZ and also potentially along the Mogollon
   Rim, as moderate buoyancy develops within a seasonably moist
   environment. Depending on the extent of recovery that can occur in
   the wake of convection on D1/Sunday, a threat of isolated severe
   gusts and perhaps some hail may evolve, though confidence is too low
   to add probabilities at this time.

   ..Dean.. 08/07/2022

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