SPC AC 281729

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1229 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple of tornadoes will be possible across parts of east-central
   and northeast Florida Thursday morning and afternoon, in association
   with Tropical Cyclone Ian.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper trough is forecast to progress across the Canadian Maritime
   Provinces and northeastern U.S. Thursday, before moving into the
   North Atlantic during the second half of the period.  Meanwhile, a
   second trough/low is forecast to make slow eastward progress across
   the northwestern quarter of the CONUS.  In between, ridging will
   prevail, though several short-wave cyclonic disturbances will
   progress through weak/largely westerly flow across the
   Plains/Canadian Prairies.

   At the surface, a cold front will move across the northwestern U.S.
   and into the Great Basin/Intermountain region, while a lee trough is
   maintained over the High Plains.  In the East, high pressure will
   prevail, with the exception of the Southeast where Ian -- likely to
   have weakened to tropical storm status -- will be moving across
   central and northeastern Florida through the day, and then offshore
   overnight.

   ...Parts of central and northeastern Florida...
   Current forecasts from the National Hurricane Center place the
   center of Ian over central Florida at the start of period, with slow
   northeastward motion across northeastern portions of Florida through
   the day before moving offshore north of Melbourne by early evening.

   Given this location and movement, inland tornado risk will be
   confined largely to northeast Florida coastal counties, with the
   remainder of the risk offshore.  As such, a small SLGT risk/5%
   tornado area is being maintained at this time, for areas near and
   north of Cape Canaveral.  Risk will diminish after dark, as Ian
   continues to shift offshore.

   ..Goss.. 09/28/2022

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