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Apr 13, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 13 17:32:58 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240413 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20240413 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 131732

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1232 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
   PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon into
   the evening on Sunday, from southwestern Ohio east-northeastward to
   southwestern New England. Damaging winds should be the primary
   hazard, but a tornado or two and large hail are also possible.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level closed low initially centered over California will move
   eastward across the Great Basin Sunday, with downstream ridging to
   remain over the Plains/central U.S. through the period.  Farther
   east, west-northwesterly flow aloft will prevail, with a belt of
   enhanced/70 to 80 kt speeds across the Great Lakes and Northeast
   states.  A subtle short-wave trough/vort max associated with the
   mid-level jet is forecast to shift across the Upper Ohio
   Valley/central Appalachians through the late afternoon/evening
   hours.  

   At the surface, a weak frontal low initially over the Lower Michigan
   vicinity should move quickly eastward to western New England by the
   evening.  Meanwhile a trailing, east-west cold front will advance
   southward across the southern Great Lakes region and into the
   central Appalachians and Midwest States through the afternoon and
   evening, and reaching the Mid-Atlantic region and Ohio Valley
   overnight.

   In the West, a cold front associated with the advancing upper low
   will cross the Great Basin and Desert Southwest with time, reaching
   the High Plains by Monday morning.

   ...Upper Ohio Valley area to far southwestern New England...
   Steep mid-level lapse rates aloft are forecast to overspread the
   northeastern quarter of the country Sunday, as a cold front drops
   southward across the Northeast states.  Beneath this
   eastward-advecting mid-level lapse rate plume, modest
   east-northeastward advection of low-level moisture will occur, with
   50s dewpoints expected ahead of the front, from southwestern New
   England westward, by late afternoon in a narrow east-to-west
   corridor.  This -- combined with diurnal heating across the warm
   sector, should yield mixed-layer CAPE values to reach 500 J/kg over
   southern New York/eastern Pennsylvania, to 1500 J/kg into western
   Pennsylvania and Ohio.  

   As the front sags southward and destabilization maximizes through
   the afternoon, storm initiation along and just ahead of the front is
   expected.  Storms may initially include cellular mode, especially
   from central Pennsylvania westward, but flow roughly parallel to the
   front should favor quick upscale/linear evolution.  Still, weak
   veering and rapid strengthening of the flow with height will support
   organized storms -- including rotating updrafts within the line, and
   particularly with any storms which can remain at least transiently
   cellular.  While the expected linear storm mode should help to limit
   tornado potential, a couple of tornadoes are anticipated,
   particularly across western and central Pennsylvania, where large
   hail may also occur.  Otherwise, the primary severe risk across the
   region should be damaging wind gusts, aided by 40 to 50 kt
   westerlies extending as low as 900mb per model point-forecast
   soundings.

   Storms will spread southward into the evening, but should eventually
   weaken diurnally as the boundary layer begins to stabilize.

   ..Goss.. 04/13/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: April 13, 2024
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