SPC AC 191658

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1058 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
   States on Thursday.

   ...Synopsis...

   A large-scale upper trough from the Great Lakes to the southern
   Rockies will slowly pivot eastward across the Plains and Midwest on
   Thursday. Neutral to weak height falls will occur over the southern
   U.S., while a weak surface low tracks eastward along the central
   Gulf Coast vicinity. A cold front will shift east along with the
   surface low. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will allow for modest
   moisture return along the FL Panhandle into far southern AL/GA.
   However, weak diurnal heating due to abundant cloud cover and
   ongoing showers/isolated thunderstorms will limit destabilization,
   with only a couple hundred J/kg MLCAPE forecast near the Gulf Coast.
   In the absence of stronger height falls and cooling aloft, midlevel
   lapse rates also will remain poor. Additionally, organized
   convection will be further limited by weak convergence along the
   front, with deep-layer boundary-parallel flow in place. While
   isolated thunderstorms are expected, severe thunderstorm potential
   will remain low.

   ..Leitman.. 01/19/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z