SPC AC 181719
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Tuesday.
The primary feature of interest will be a shortwave trough moving
from the central Rockies into the Plains, with upper low moving from
CO/WY into NE. Strong height falls will occur with this system
across the northern Plains, with a surface low deepening over NE
during the day. A cold front will accompany this system, extending
roughly from central NE into eastern CO by 00Z with a warm front
from northeast NE into southern MN. Farther south, a dryline will
stretch from central KS into western TX.
Within the warm sector, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will
develop as southerly winds increase across the Plains and west of a
surface high over the Southeast. While strong heating will occur
from southwest NE into west TX, capping is likely to inhibit
convection due to the early/poor-quality moisture return. However,
cooling aloft with the upper trough as well as a substantial
low-level jet will lead to weak elevated instability, with isolated
to scattered thunderstorms possible primarily after 00Z from SD into
Forecast soundings indicate convection may be rooted in the 850-700
mb layer, with only a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE. As such, severe
weather is not anticipated.
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z