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May 25, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat May 25 17:33:39 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240525 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20240525 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 251733

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z


   Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears likely
   across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri
   Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through
   Sunday night. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large
   hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes appears likely across
   parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through
   much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee.

   A progressive mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS and
   into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night. The
   associated surface low will begin the period in central Kansas and
   somewhere near Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan by 12Z Monday. Along and
   south of this surface low, a moist/unstable warm sector will support
   multiple rounds of strong to severe storms. 

   ...Missouri through central/southern Illinois/Indiana, Kentucky, and
   northern Tennessee...
   A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, responsible for
   the D1 severe weather episode in the central Plains is progged to be
   near the IA/IL/MO border at 12Z with a broad area of likely severe
   thunderstorms extending to the south. Storms on the northern end of
   this line will likely outrun the best instability and weaken during
   the morning, especially by the time they reach Lake Michigan.
   Farther south, low-level moisture advection will lead to rapid
   destabilization ahead of the line. This will support a sustained to
   perhaps increased severe weather threat as this line moves across
   southern Illinois and Indiana and into northern Kentucky. The
   primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. 

   Despite the stabilizing effect of this morning convection, recovery
   is anticipated across southern/eastern Missouri during the afternoon
   and eventually into southern Illinois and western Kentucky as a
   stout EML advects across the region from the west. The exact
   evolution of storm development in the wake of morning convection
   remains unclear. Persistent supercell development is possible on the
   remnant outflow boundary through the day which would have a
   continued wind/hail threat and could grow upscale into a cluster
   with an increased wind threat. However, even if storms do not
   continue to form along this boundary, additional storms are likely
   during the late afternoon/evening as a secondary shortwave trough
   approaches and erodes inhibition. 45 to 50 knots of effective shear
   will support supercell storm mode with a primary threat of large
   hail. In addition, if sufficient boundary layer recovery can occur
   north of the outflow boundary, the environment would be quite
   favorable for tornadoes with large low-level hodographs. A 10%
   hatched tornado threat has been added for the region where this
   threat may be greatest.

   Eventually, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected
   along the advancing cold front during the late evening which should
   move southeast and persist for the entire overnight period. This
   will pose a primary threat for damaging winds although there will be
   some tornado threat given the strengthening low-level jet during the
   evening hours. The orientation of the line will be the primary
   limiting factor to a greater tornado threat with this overnight
   squall line. 

   ...Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into Arkansas...
   A strongly unstable and only slightly capped environment is expected
   during the afternoon hours. Isolated supercells capable of large
   hail are possible during the afternoon as ascent from the mid-level
   trough overspread this region, but low-level focus will be nebulous.
   The better storm threat will arrive with the cold front during the
   evening with a damaging wind threat. However, some large hail is
   also possible with more scattered development/potentially transient
   supercell development on the southern extent of the line.

   ...Northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin...
   A narrow area near the surface low may destabilize during the late
   afternoon/early evening with sufficient instability for a low-topped
   hail/wind threat near the surface low for a few hours during the
   early evening hours. 

   ...Eastern Kansas...
   Remnant low-level moisture behind the cold front, combined with cold
   air advection aloft will lead to some destabilization behind the
   cold front during the afternoon/evening. A few southeastward moving
   storms/clusters may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat with the
   threat waning after sunset. 

   ...Eastern Arkansas across northern MS/AL and southern Tennessee...
   A squall line along/ahead of the approaching cold front will move
   across the Mid-MS Valley into southern TN/northern AL after
   midnight. A very moist/unstable boundary layer and strong deep layer
   shear will support a damaging wind threat through the overnight
   hours. Some guidance indicates storm development ahead of the line
   across AL/TN/MS which would have a threat for all severe hazards
   given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level and
   deep-layer shear.

   ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024



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