SPC AC 051708

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1208 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2023

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
   SIERRAS/GREAT BASIN...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHEASTERN GEORGIA
   INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTH FLORIDA ....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Tuesday across
   parts of the Sierras/Great Basin, southern High Plains, northeastern
   Georgia into South Carolina, and south Florida.

   ...Synopsis...
   Overall upper pattern is forecast to remain relatively stagnant on
   Tuesday, with upper ridging center over the northern Plains, an
   upper low over central/southern CA, and expansive cyclonic flow over
   much of the northeast CONUS. Surface pattern across the CONUS will
   be void of any influential features, with only modest lee troughing
   across the High Plains and the deepest area of low pressure over
   Nova Scotia. Even with this stagnant large-scale pattern and
   unremarkable surface pattern, a few more subtle features could still
   result in a few strong to severe thunderstorms.  

   ...South FL...
   Thunderstorm development is forecast Tuesday afternoon as sea-breeze
   boundaries move through a destabilized airmass. Slightly stronger
   mid-level southwesterly flow is anticipated across southern FL on
   Tuesday, contributing to the potential for more updraft organization
   and isolated damaging downbursts.

   ...Northwest CA into the Great Basin...
   A shortwave trough rotating through the CA upper low will contribute
   to increase thunderstorm coverage and low severe-thunderstorm
   potential across the western Great Basin Tuesday afternoon and
   evening. Low-level moisture will be modest, but increasing mid-level
   moisture and cold mid-level temperatures will boost buoyancy,
   helping support stronger updrafts. Additionally, high cloud bases
   atop a deeply mixed boundary layer will aid in the development of
   strong downdrafts, with damaging gusts as the primary threat across
   the region. Given the cold mid-level temperatures, a few isolated
   instances of hail are also possible.

   ...South Carolina into Western Georgia...
   This region is expected to be on the southern edge of any stronger
   westerly flow aloft while on the northern extent of the better
   low-level moisture and buoyancy. Overlap between these features,
   coupled with ascent attendant to a weak, southward-progressing
   surface trough, may result in a few stronger storms during the
   afternoon and evening. Steep low-level lapse rates suggest damaging
   gusts will be the primary severe risk.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Despite limited low-level moisture, afternoon thunderstorm
   development is still anticipated over the higher terrain of the
   southern Rockies. Isolated development is possible along the lee
   trough as well. Veering wind profiles will contribute to 20 to 30 kt
   of effective bulk shear, which should be enough for a few more
   organized/robust updrafts. Additional storm development, with higher
   coverage south into the TX Trans Pecos region, is expected during
   the evening as a shortwave trough progresses into the region.
   Isolated hail and a strong gust or two are possible with this
   activity as well.

   ...Northeast...
   Shortwave trough rotating around the upper low centered over Nova
   Scotia is expected to move through the Northeast during the early
   afternoon. Low-level moisture will be modest, but cold mid-level
   temperatures will still support limited buoyancy and the potential
   for a few thunderstorms. Shear will also be weak, with the marginal
   nature of the overall environmental conditions limiting the severe
   potential.

   ..Mosier.. 06/05/2023

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