SPC AC 061707

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1207 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHWEST...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
   MIDWEST...COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND FLORIDA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Wednesday
   across parts of the southern High Plains, Northwest, northern
   Plains/Upper Midwest, Carolinas vicinity, and Florida.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   The overall upper-air pattern is forecast to remain relatively
   unchanged from Tuesday through Wednesday across the CONUS. Upper
   ridging will persist across the northern and central Plains, with
   some expansion northward/northwestward into more of southern British
   Columbia and the southern Prairie Provinces. Cyclonic flow will also
   persist across the northeastern CONUS, anchored by a closed low
   centered over ME. Several shortwave troughs are expected to move
   through this cyclonic flow, include one that moves into the
   Mid-Atlantic during the late evening.

   Farther west, an upper low over southern CA is expected to gradually
   drift northward into southern NV. Some enhancement of the
   subtropical jet is forecast south of this low, stretching across the
   Baja Peninsula and northern Mexico into Texas.

   ....Southern High Plains to the Southeast and FL Peninsula...
   A nondescript surface pattern will be in place, with only modest lee
   troughing across the High Plains and the deepest area of low
   pressure over ME. Even so, a relatively moist low-level air mass
   will contribute to thunderstorm development across portions of the
   Southeast and southern Plains/southern High Plains. Within this
   broader region, a few areas appears to higher a relatively greater
   severe risk including the southern High Plains, coastal Carolinas,
   and the east coast of FL. In each of these areas, a modest increase
   in deep-layer flow may result in stronger shear and the potential
   for a more robust updrafts. A predominantly multicellular mode is
   anticipated in each of these area as well, but loosely organized
   thunderstorm clusters spreading eastward may be capable of producing
   isolated severe gusts as low-level lapse rates steepen through the
   day. A few supercells are possible across the TX Trans Pecos where
   buoyancy will be greatest.  

   ...Lower MO Valley into the Eastern Dakotas...
   A ribbon of greater low-level moisture is anticipated from the Lower
   MO Valley north-northwestward into eastern Dakotas. Here, increasing
   low-level convergence is expected along a stationary boundary
   separating the drier airmass over the Great Lakes from the one over
   the Plains. Afternoon thunderstorm development is forecast within
   this environment after the airmass destabilizes. Shear will be
   modest, but a few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts and
   isolated hail are possible.

   ....Northern CA into the Northern Great Basin...
   A shortwave trough rotating through the CA upper low will contribute
   to increasing thunderstorm coverage and low severe-thunderstorm
   potential across the region Wednesday afternoon and evening.
   Low-level moisture will be modest, but increasing mid-level moisture
   and cold mid-level temperatures will boost buoyancy, helping support
   stronger updrafts. Additionally, high cloud bases atop a deeply
   mixed boundary layer will aid in the development of strong
   downdrafts, with damaging gusts as the primary threat across the
   region. Given the cold mid-level temperatures, a few isolated
   instances of hail are also possible.

   ..Mosier.. 06/06/2023

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