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Oct 18, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Oct 18 17:19:20 UTC 2021 (Print Version | 20211018 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211018 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 181719

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Tuesday.

   ...Discussion...
   The primary feature of interest will be a shortwave trough moving
   from the central Rockies into the Plains, with upper low moving from
   CO/WY into NE. Strong height falls will occur with this system
   across the northern Plains, with a surface low deepening over NE
   during the day. A cold front will accompany this system, extending
   roughly from central NE into eastern CO by 00Z with a warm front
   from northeast NE into southern MN. Farther south, a dryline will
   stretch from central KS into western TX.

   Within the warm sector, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will
   develop as southerly winds increase across the Plains and west of a
   surface high over the Southeast. While strong heating will occur
   from southwest NE into west TX, capping is likely to inhibit
   convection due to the early/poor-quality moisture return. However,
   cooling aloft with the upper trough as well as a substantial
   low-level jet will lead to weak elevated instability, with isolated
   to scattered thunderstorms possible primarily after 00Z from SD into
   western IA. 

   Forecast soundings indicate convection may be rooted in the 850-700
   mb layer, with only a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE. As such, severe
   weather is not anticipated.

   ..Jewell.. 10/18/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: October 18, 2021
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