Mar 18, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 18 17:24:39 UTC 2019 (20190318 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20190318 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190318 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20190318 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 181724

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1224 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z


   A few thunderstorms will be possible over a portion of the central
   and southern Rockies Tuesday afternoon and evening, far south
   Florida during the day, and parts of the central and southern
   California coast late Tuesday night.

   ...Central/Southern Rockies...
   An upper level shortwave trough will drop south/southeast over the
   central Rockies and Plains on Tuesday. Upslope flow across the
   central/southern Rockies and steepening midlevel lapse rates should
   be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and
   evening as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the
   upper wave. Instability will be limited and deep layer shear rather
   weak, precluding severe concerns.

   ...Far South Florida...
   A surface cold front will stall south of FL, but midlevel
   southwesterly flow will continue to transport moisture northward
   atop the boundary and across the peninsula. Instability will remain
   poor but could be sufficient for a few lightning strikes, especially
   near the Keys and the near-shore waters of far south Florida as a
   weak midlevel low passes from west to east across southern FL in
   broader cyclonic flow. 

   ...Central/Southern CA Coast...
   An upper trough will move inland by Wednesday morning. Steepening
   lapse rates and increasing forcing as the system moves toward the
   coast could be sufficient for a few strikes late in the forecast
   period ahead of an eastward advancing cold front.

   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:     <5%     - None
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Leitman.. 03/18/2019