Sep 15, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Sep 15 17:26:39 UTC 2019 (20190915 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20190915 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190915 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 26,557 2,466,251 Salt Lake City, UT...West Valley City, UT...Provo, UT...West Jordan, UT...Orem, UT...
Probabilistic Graphic
20190915 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 26,594 2,466,398 Salt Lake City, UT...West Valley City, UT...Provo, UT...West Jordan, UT...Orem, UT...
   SPC AC 151726

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1226 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF THE GREAT BASIN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms with locally strong wind gusts may impact
   portions of the Great Basin Monday afternoon and night.

   ...Great Basin region...

   An amplifying upper trough currently over the eastern Pacific will
   move through the Great Basin region Monday afternoon and Monday
   night. This feature will be accompanied by a strong cold front that
   should extend from eastern OR into northern CA early Monday and from
   southeast ID through western UT by the end of this period. Primary
   limiting factor for a more robust severe threat will be limited
   low-level moisture and instability, with MLCAPE generally less than
   500 J/kg. Inverted-V boundary layers will exist in the pre-frontal
   warm sector across northwestern NV where at least 200-300 J/kg
   MLCAPE will exist during the afternoon. Storms are expected to
   develop within frontal zone where strong deep-layer winds
   accompanying the upper trough will exist. A few of these storms
   could produce locally strong wind gusts during the afternoon and
   evening.  

   Additional more isolated storms will be possible over central and
   eastern UT during the afternoon within corridor of slightly greater
   moisture and 300-500 J/kg MLCAPE. These storms will reside within
   30-35 kt effective bulk shear at least marginally supportive of
   mid-level updraft rotation. A few locally strong wind gusts and
   small hail will be possible. Overnight, a band of storms may
   increase along the front as it intercepts slightly better low-level
   moisture across UT. This activity will be embedded within strong
   deep-layer winds, and a dry-sub cloud layer will promote transfer of
   higher momentum air to the surface.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:      5%     - Marginal
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Dial.. 09/15/2019

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z