SPC AC 201719
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the California coast on
Wednesday, however severe thunderstorms are not expected.
An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front over the
eastern Pacific will move inland late Wednesday. Cool mid-level
temperatures will contribute to modest instability on the order of
100-200 J/kg despite substantial cloud cover. Lift with the front
will result in showers and isolated thunderstorms offshore and near
the coast. Although shear will be sufficient for some degree of
storm organization, the lack of more substantial buoyancy will limit
the potential for stronger storms.
A southern-stream shortwave trough will move across Texas towards
the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday, contributing to surface
cyclogenesis along a stationary front over the western Gulf of
Mexico. Although the developing warm sector will remain well
offshore, very weak elevated instability north of the
front/developing low combined with large-scale lift may result in an
occasional lightning strike. Overall potential appears too low to
warrant areal delineation.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: <2% - None
Wind: <5% - None
Hail: <5% - None
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z