Sep 27, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 27 17:30:18 UTC 2022 (20220927 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220927 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220927 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 32,773 14,393,379 Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Coral Springs, FL...Cape Coral, FL...
MARGINAL 9,172 1,420,798 Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...Hollywood, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220927 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 32,684 14,379,665 Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Cape Coral, FL...Port St. Lucie, FL...
2 % 9,439 1,513,474 Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...Hollywood, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220927 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 41,965 15,815,174 Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Orlando, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220927 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 271730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few tornadoes will be possible across the Florida Peninsula on
   Wednesday, in association with Hurricane Ian.

   ...Synopsis...
   A highly amplified upper trough will continue moving slowly eastward
   across eastern NOAM Wednesday, while a second trough -- initially
   over the northeastern Pacific -- shifts inland across southern
   British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest during the second half of
   the period.  In between, ridging will prevail across the U.S. Great
   Plains and Canadian Prairies.

   At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move slowly across the
   Pacific Northwest, while high pressure prevails over the central and
   much of the eastern portions of the country.  The main exception
   will be over the Southeast, where a quasistationary front will
   become more ill-defined, as Hurricane Ian shifts out of the eastern
   Gulf and into Florida through the end of the period.

   ...Florida Peninsula...
   While track uncertainties with respect to Ian (see the latest
   forecasts from the National Hurricane Center) persist, risk for a
   few tornadoes remains evident as the storm approaches -- and
   eventually moves into -- the Florida Peninsula.  As low-level flow
   intensifies with time, shear in the eastern half of the circulation
   will support rotating updrafts within banded convection.  As such,
   brief tornadoes will be possible for an extended period of time.  At
   this time, with the storm track continuing to trend more eastward,
   future adjustments to northern fringes of the risk area will likely
   be required.

   ..Goss.. 09/27/2022

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z