Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 211718
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
A few storms might produce locally strong to damaging wind gusts
over a portion of eastern North Carolina during the afternoon. Some
risk for marginally severe hail will exist late Friday night with
any storms developing across northeast Oklahoma and southern Kansas.
...NC...
Weak short-wave trough currently located over the central High
Plains is forecast to dig southeast into the TN Valley by the start
of the day2 period. This feature will then eject into the middle
Atlantic as a speed max translates across the southern Appalachians
into southeast VA during the afternoon. Resultant surface pressure
rises across the TN/OH Valley region will force a cold front east of
the higher terrain to a position from southeast VA-central Carolinas
after 18z. This boundary will serve to focus convection, especially
as boundary-layer heating contributes to destabilization. Forecast
wind profiles suggest some organization is possible, though
low-level shear will remain somewhat weak. Have expanded low severe
probabilities to include a bit more of eastern NC as forecast models
suggest convection will easily develop ahead of this disturbance by
peak heating. Locally damaging winds are the primary risk.
...OK/KS...
Surface anticyclone will shift downstream into the TN Valley by the
end of the day2 period. Lee cyclone will establish itself over the
high Plains of southwest KS during the latter half of the period and
this will encourage low-level moisture to advance north across TX
into eastern KS as the LLJ strengthens across this region. While
strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the High Plains,
surface-based convection will likely struggle to initiate due to the
expected presence of some CINH. However, elevated thunderstorms
should develop during the overnight period within the warm advection
zone over northeast OK/southeast KS. Forecast soundings suggest
modest MUCAPE such that a few robust updrafts may be possible. At
this time it appears marginally severe hail would be the primary
risk.
..Darrow.. 10/21/2021
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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