SPC AC 221713

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1213 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the central
   and southern Plains and also across portions of Oregon, northern
   California, and central Nevada on Saturday.

   ...Synopsis...

   A midlevel low and attendant trough will lift northeast across the
   central and southern Plains on Saturday, becoming an open wave over
   the Upper Midwest by Sunday morning. At the surface, a weak lee
   cyclone will track east across KS. A dryline will extend southward
   from northwest OK into western TX during the morning, and mix
   eastward into western OK and central TX by 00z. Southerly low level
   flow will continue to transport moisture northward in warm advection
   regime and dewpoints will generally be in the mid 50s across central
   and northern TX into south-central OK.  Overnight, a cold front will
   move across the central Plains and into northern OK by the end of
   the period. 

   ...OK/TX Vicinity...

   Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Saturday morning across
   central and eastern OK and north Texas. This activity will be
   elevated in nature. Very weak instability will limit intensity and
   longevity of any stronger updrafts despite favorable shear that
   generally would support rotation/organization. Therefore, severe
   threat is not expected as convection  shifts east into the Ozarks
   during the afternoon and evening. 

   More uncertain is the convective threat during the afternoon and
   evening along the dryline. A narrow band of relatively higher
   dewpoints (56-60 F) is forecast near the dryline in the
   vicinity/just west of the I-35 corridor from north-central TX into
   western/central OK by peak heating. Stronger forcing for ascent will
   be lifting away from this region as the shortwave trough moves
   northeast. Because of this, forcing mechanism will be more subtle
   and dependent on low level convergence along the dryline and
   stronger destabilization where clearing occurs behind morning
   precipitation. Hi-res guidance continues to vary considerably with
   regards to convective initiation in this corridor during the
   afternoon/evening. As a result, the threat remains highly
   conditional and uncertain.  Steep midlevel lapse rates and favorable
   shear profiles will support rotating cells capable of producing
   severe hail and gusty winds and, perhaps even a tornado if low level
   moisture exceeds expectation. However, given the degree of
   uncertainty that any storms will develop in this corridor, will
   continue to refrain from inclusion of Marginal probs at this time.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:     <5%     - None
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Leitman.. 03/22/2019

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z