SPC AC 181724
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
A few thunderstorms will be possible over a portion of the central
and southern Rockies Tuesday afternoon and evening, far south
Florida during the day, and parts of the central and southern
California coast late Tuesday night.
An upper level shortwave trough will drop south/southeast over the
central Rockies and Plains on Tuesday. Upslope flow across the
central/southern Rockies and steepening midlevel lapse rates should
be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the
upper wave. Instability will be limited and deep layer shear rather
weak, precluding severe concerns.
...Far South Florida...
A surface cold front will stall south of FL, but midlevel
southwesterly flow will continue to transport moisture northward
atop the boundary and across the peninsula. Instability will remain
poor but could be sufficient for a few lightning strikes, especially
near the Keys and the near-shore waters of far south Florida as a
weak midlevel low passes from west to east across southern FL in
broader cyclonic flow.
...Central/Southern CA Coast...
An upper trough will move inland by Wednesday morning. Steepening
lapse rates and increasing forcing as the system moves toward the
coast could be sufficient for a few strikes late in the forecast
period ahead of an eastward advancing cold front.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: <2% - None
Wind: <5% - None
Hail: <5% - None
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z