Nov 20, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 20 17:19:31 UTC 2018 (20181120 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20181120 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20181120 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20181120 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 201719

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1119 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the California coast on
   Wednesday, however severe thunderstorms are not expected.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front over the
   eastern Pacific will move inland late Wednesday.  Cool mid-level
   temperatures will contribute to modest instability on the order of
   100-200 J/kg despite substantial cloud cover.  Lift with the front
   will result in showers and isolated thunderstorms offshore and near
   the coast.  Although shear will be sufficient for some degree of
   storm organization, the lack of more substantial buoyancy will limit
   the potential for stronger storms.

   A southern-stream shortwave trough will move across Texas towards
   the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday, contributing to surface
   cyclogenesis along a stationary front over the western Gulf of
   Mexico.  Although the developing warm sector will remain well
   offshore, very weak elevated instability north of the
   front/developing low combined with large-scale lift may result in an
   occasional lightning strike.  Overall potential appears too low to
   warrant areal delineation.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:     <5%     - None
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Bunting.. 11/20/2018

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z