Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 271730
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes will be possible across the Florida Peninsula on
Wednesday, in association with Hurricane Ian.
...Synopsis...
A highly amplified upper trough will continue moving slowly eastward
across eastern NOAM Wednesday, while a second trough -- initially
over the northeastern Pacific -- shifts inland across southern
British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest during the second half of
the period. In between, ridging will prevail across the U.S. Great
Plains and Canadian Prairies.
At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move slowly across the
Pacific Northwest, while high pressure prevails over the central and
much of the eastern portions of the country. The main exception
will be over the Southeast, where a quasistationary front will
become more ill-defined, as Hurricane Ian shifts out of the eastern
Gulf and into Florida through the end of the period.
...Florida Peninsula...
While track uncertainties with respect to Ian (see the latest
forecasts from the National Hurricane Center) persist, risk for a
few tornadoes remains evident as the storm approaches -- and
eventually moves into -- the Florida Peninsula. As low-level flow
intensifies with time, shear in the eastern half of the circulation
will support rotating updrafts within banded convection. As such,
brief tornadoes will be possible for an extended period of time. At
this time, with the storm track continuing to trend more eastward,
future adjustments to northern fringes of the risk area will likely
be required.
..Goss.. 09/27/2022
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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