Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Austin, TX...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Waco, TX...Killeen, TX...
SPC AC 231722
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
Thunderstorms, associated with large hail and wind damage, will be
possible on Sunday from parts of north-central Texas northeastward
into southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
A mid-level trough will deamplify over the Upper MS Valley as upper
riding builds in from the west across the Plains states
tomorrow/Sunday. Despite weakening upper support, a surface cold
front will sweep across portions of the southern Plains, providing
enough low-level convergence and lift to support scattered strong to
severe storms amid appreciable buoyancy and vertical wind shear.
Meanwhile, the remnants of Ophelia will continue to meander across
the Mid Atlantic, with periodic heavy rains and an occasional
thunderstorm attempting to move onshore.
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, potentially in the form of
one or more MCSs, may already be in progress ahead of the surface
cold front across the southern Plains. Though these storms may
inhibit morning destabilization near the Arklatex, guidance
consensus suggests that at least some clearing and destabilization
is likely ahead of the cold front, especially from southern OK into
north-central TX. Here, 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates atop surface
dewpoints around 70 F will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg in spots.
Veering winds in the lowest few hundred mb will result in hodographs
with at least modest curvature and elongation, supporting supercell
structures with storms that develop ahead of the cold front by
afternoon. Large to very large hail will be the main threat with the
more robust supercells, though a severe gust or tornado cannot be
ruled out. Supercells and their cold pools should merge after a few
hours, supporting one or more multicellular complexes or MCSs with
severe-gust potential. Primary uncertainties precluding higher
severe probabilities (especially hail) at this time involve the
specific placement and timing of the cold front, as well as impacts
made by preceding storms from Day 1 and rapidity of supercell
Though strong low-level directional shear should be present within
the northeast quadrant of Ophelia's remnants, latest guidance
consensus suggests that any buoyancy that can manage to reach the
shoreline should be scant at best. Though the threat for a brief
tornado is non-zero, such meager to near non-existent buoyancy
precludes the addition of tornado probabilities this outlook.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z