Sep 23, 2023 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Sep 23 17:22:34 UTC 2023 (20230923 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20230923 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20230923 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 84,954 9,736,169 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
MARGINAL 114,224 8,902,040 San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Norman, OK...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20230923 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 61,927 8,439,786 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20230923 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 77,050 9,425,475 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
5 % 114,188 8,647,452 San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Wichita Falls, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20230923 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 51,863 7,981,517 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
15 % 61,151 8,263,362 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
5 % 125,019 8,674,229 Austin, TX...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Waco, TX...Killeen, TX...
   SPC AC 231722

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms, associated with large hail and wind damage, will be
   possible on Sunday from parts of north-central Texas northeastward
   into southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will deamplify over the Upper MS Valley as upper
   riding builds in from the west across the Plains states
   tomorrow/Sunday. Despite weakening upper support, a surface cold
   front will sweep across portions of the southern Plains, providing
   enough low-level convergence and lift to support scattered strong to
   severe storms amid appreciable buoyancy and vertical wind shear.
   Meanwhile, the remnants of Ophelia will continue to meander across
   the Mid Atlantic, with periodic heavy rains and an occasional
   thunderstorm attempting to move onshore.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, potentially in the form of
   one or more MCSs, may already be in progress ahead of the surface
   cold front across the southern Plains. Though these storms may
   inhibit morning destabilization near the Arklatex, guidance
   consensus suggests that at least some clearing and destabilization
   is likely ahead of the cold front, especially from southern OK into
   north-central TX. Here, 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates atop surface
   dewpoints around 70 F will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg in spots.
   Veering winds in the lowest few hundred mb will result in hodographs
   with at least modest curvature and elongation, supporting supercell
   structures with storms that develop ahead of the cold front by
   afternoon. Large to very large hail will be the main threat with the
   more robust supercells, though a severe gust or tornado cannot be
   ruled out. Supercells and their cold pools should merge after a few
   hours, supporting one or more multicellular complexes or MCSs with
   severe-gust potential. Primary uncertainties precluding higher
   severe probabilities (especially hail) at this time involve the
   specific placement and timing of the cold front, as well as impacts
   made by preceding storms from Day 1 and rapidity of supercell
   upscale growth.

   ...Mid Atlantic...
   Though strong low-level directional shear should be present within
   the northeast quadrant of Ophelia's remnants, latest guidance
   consensus suggests that any buoyancy that can manage to reach the
   shoreline should be scant at best. Though the threat for a brief
   tornado is non-zero, such meager to near non-existent buoyancy
   precludes the addition of tornado probabilities this outlook.

   ..Squitieri.. 09/23/2023

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z