Jul 16, 2018 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jul 16 06:10:57 UTC 2018 (20180716 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20180716 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180716 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 196,206 39,298,516 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...
Probabilistic Graphic
20180716 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 196,418 39,236,287 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...Yonkers, NY...
   SPC AC 160610

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0110 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A marginal risk for severe storms will be possible on Tuesday in
   parts of the Northeast and in the central to northern Plains.

   ...Northeast...
   An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Lower Great
   Lakes Region on Tuesday as a cold front advances southeastward
   across the Northeast. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front should be
   in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. In spite of extensive cloud cover,
   some instability should develop ahead of the front from the
   Mid-Atlantic northeastward into New England. In addition, forecast
   soundings from eastern Pennsylvania into western New England on
   Tuesday show 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 kt range suggesting enough
   shear will be in place for a marginal severe threat. Although
   numerous thunderstorms will be ongoing across the region, a few of
   the multicell storms that develop ahead of areas that sufficiently
   destabilize, could be associated with strong wind gusts.

   ...Central and Northern Plains...
   A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward across the
   central High Plains on Tuesday. Ahead of this feature, a corridor of
   maximized low-level moisture is forecast from the central Plains
   northwestward into the northern High Plains where pockets of
   moderate instability appear likely to develop by Tuesday afternoon.
   Although the distribution of instability remains highly uncertain,
   forecast soundings suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in
   place across most of the moist sector. For this reason,
   thunderstorms that develop in the higher terrain and along residual
   outflow boundaries in the lower elevations could obtain a marginal
   severe threat. Strong wind gusts and hail are forecast to be the
   primary threats.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
   Wind:      5%     - Marginal
   Hail:      5%     - Marginal

   ..Broyles.. 07/16/2018

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z