Oct 15, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Oct 15 04:43:55 UTC 2019 (20191015 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20191015 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20191015 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20191015 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 150443

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1143 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z


   Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.


   The mid/upper level low over the Great Lakes and attendant trough
   extending southward to the northern Gulf Coast will lift
   east/northeast Wednesday, with the upper low centered over southern
   New England/NY the trough offshore the Mid-Atlantic by 12z Thursday.
   As this occurs, an upper ridge will amplify as it tracks across the
   Rockies and into the Plains ahead of another upper trough deepening
   along the Pacific coast by the end of the period. A surface low near
   coastal SC and a rain-cooled airmass across the Gulf coast states
   will result in the effective cold front extending from the SC
   coastal low westward to southern LA to near the upper/middle TX
   coast and westward across south TX. Isolated showers and
   thunderstorms will be ongoing along the front Wednesday morning, but
   generally poor thermodynamics coupled weak forcing will preclude
   severe concerns before the front moves offshore the Gulf coast by
   midday. The front will sag southward across the northern/central FL
   peninsula, but flow parallel to the boundary at all levels will not
   support sustained updrafts in the absence of stronger low level
   convergence and little upper support.

   The coastal SC low will rapidly intensify into an Nor'easter and
   approach the New England coast by Thursday morning. As this occurs,
   the northern extent of the cold front located over the upper OH
   River valley will push eastward across much of the Northeast and
   offshore the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorm
   activity will be confined from the central Appalachians vicinity
   northeastward along the I-95 corridor. Weak instability/poor lapse
   rates and marginal effective shear will limit severe potential. Some
   strong gusts are possible near the coast given the strong background
   flow as the coastal low rapidly intensifies. However, these strong
   winds are not expected to be related to convection, precluding the
   need for severe probs.

   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:     <5%     - None
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Leitman.. 10/15/2019