Dec 11, 2019 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Dec 11 06:33:22 UTC 2019 (20191211 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20191211 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20191211 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20191211 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 110633

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1233 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of
   the Deep South and central Gulf Coast eastward to the Florida
   Peninsula.

   ...Synopsis...
   Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is expected to persist across the CONUS
   on Friday with a low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough
   progressing quickly from the central/southern Plains into the TN
   Valley. Another shortwave trough will follow quickly in its wake,
   moving from the Great Basin into the central/southern Plains. This
   second shortwave will move along the leading edge of an extensive
   area of enhanced mid-level flow, which is expected to extend from
   the northeast Pacific Ocean into the southern Plains by early
   Friday. 

   The surface pattern Thursday morning will likely feature an
   expansive ridge over much of the eastern CONUS with a small cyclone
   over the mid MO Valley. Both of these features are expected to shift
   northeastward as the previously mentioned southern-stream shortwave
   trough approaches the TN Valley. Moisture return ahead of this
   system will be muted by persistent northeasterly/easterly surface
   winds, but strong warm-air advection will still likely result in
   isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across
   portions of AL, GA, and SC. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible
   across FL during the day. 

   Isolated thunderstorms may also occur along the Pacific Northwest
   coast, where numerous perturbations within the strong flow aloft
   will provide persistent forcing for ascent and cold mid-level
   temperatures will foster weak instability.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:     <5%     - None
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Mosier.. 12/11/2019

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z