Aug 2, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Aug 2 04:37:46 UTC 2021 (20210802 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20210802 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20210802 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20210802 0600 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20210802 0600 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20210802 0600 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 020437

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1137 PM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong storms may affect parts of the Southeast including the
   coastal Carolinas on Tuesday, but severe potential appears limited.
   Isolated storms are also expected over Oregon during the afternoon.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   Primarily weak cyclonic flow aloft will persist over
   the eastern CONUS on Tuesday, with a surface ridge from the MO
   Valley into the Northeast. Meanwhile, a front will linger across the
   northern Gulf of Mexico, extending northeastward across the coastal
   Carolinas. While a moist air mass will exist near this boundary,
   several rounds of rain and thunderstorms will mitigate daytime
   destabilization. Low-level winds may be relatively stronger over the
   coastal Carolinas, but any isolated severe threat over land will
   depend on frontal position.

   To the west, a surface trough is forecast to develop over central WA
   and OR during the day, where strong heating will occur. Lapse rates
   aloft will also remain steep with around -10 C at 500 mb. Isolated
   afternoon storms are expected as capping is removed over central and
   eastern OR. Forecast soundings depict deep mixing layers which may
   aid wind gusts. At this time, it appears coverage of storms will be
   low due to limited moisture and little large-scale support for
   ascent.

   ..Jewell.. 08/02/2021

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z