Nov 29, 2020 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 29 16:59:15 UTC 2020 (20201129 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20201129 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20201129 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 14,842 1,922,867 Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Portsmouth, VA...Suffolk, VA...
MARGINAL 96,680 55,339,447 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Raleigh, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20201129 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 15,220 1,954,933 Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Portsmouth, VA...Suffolk, VA...
2 % 81,151 48,762,579 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Raleigh, NC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20201129 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 14,855 1,883,436 Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Portsmouth, VA...Greenville, NC...
5 % 96,962 55,482,161 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Raleigh, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20201129 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 291659

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1059 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020

   Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   EASTERN NC INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
   damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes appear possible on
   Monday from parts of Florida into the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic and
   southern New England.

   ...Synopsis...
   A closed mid/upper low is expected to develop over the
   Midwest/central Appalachians on Monday as a large-scale upper trough
   pivots eastward across the eastern U.S. At the surface, low pressure
   over WV will lift northward across PA/NY through Monday evening. A
   trailing cold front is expected to extend from western NC southward
   through eastern GA and northern FL at the beginning of the period.
   Meanwhile, a warm front will lift northward across the mid-Atlantic
   through the afternoon, extending from eastern PA into CT and
   southern MA by 21z. The cold front will quickly push
   eastward/southeast across NC/SC and central FL during the daytime
   hours, moving offshore the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern U.S. coast
   (except in FL) by 21-00z, and offshore the New England coast during
   the overnight hours. 

   Dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F will reside across the warm
   sector, but instability will be limited due to ongoing convection
   and cloud cover, especially with northward extent. Still, at least a
   few hundred J/kg MLCAPE is forecast from FL northward toward the
   southern New England coast.

   ...Coastal NC into far Southeast VA...

   A Slight risk has been maintained with this update across parts of
   eastern NC into far southeast VA. The most favorable conditions for
   a mix of semi-discrete supercells and line segments will exist
   across this area during the morning and early afternoon hours.
   Backed low level flow to the southeast of the surface low over
   northern VA will result in enlarged low level hodographs. Strong
   south/southwesterly shear also will reside over the region in
   conjunction with MLCAPE values as high as 750 J/kg. Fast storm
   motion and strong low level winds will favor mainly a locally
   damaging wind threat, though a couple of tornadoes will be possible.


   ...Chesapeake Bay vicinity to Coastal Southern New England...

   Instability will quickly diminish with northward extent as deeper
   boundary layer moisture lessens and cooler surface temperatures are
   forecast. Nevertheless, a couple hundred J/kg MLCAPE is evident in
   forecast soundings in conjunction with strong southerly shear.
   Forcing for ascent will also be maximized across the area, and
   low-topped bowing line segments will be possible in the high-shear,
   low-CAPE environment. Locally damaging gusts will be the main
   concern with this activity. A shallow low level inversion will
   likely limit tornado activity, however, this limitation could be
   overcome near the surface low and along the warm front, and a
   tornado or two can not be ruled out. 

   ...Central FL...

   Instability will be maximized over the FL peninsula where deeper low
   level moisture will be present ahead of the cold front. However, low
   level convergence will be weak as deep layer flow becomes more
   parallel to boundary with the surface low and trough ejecting well
   to the northeast. Nevertheless, forecast soundings indicate adequate
   instability and shear to support at least a narrow corridor of
   low-end severe potential before a more subsident airmass moves into
   the area. The strongest cells during the morning hours could produce
   locally strong gusts.

   ..Leitman.. 11/29/2020

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z