SPC AC 250647

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
   Monday through Monday night.

   ...Synopsis...
   Large-scale flow will remain split across the northeastern Pacific
   and northwestern North America vicinity, but the mid-level high
   initially centered near the southern Alaska/Yukon border may weaken
   during this period.  Models suggest that the lingering low to its
   south may remain fairly vigorous while continuing to gradually
   accelerate toward the Pacific Northwest coast, but it appears that
   the mid-level cold core will remain offshore through early Tuesday.

   Downstream, it appears that the westerlies will converge into a
   northwesterly regime from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into broad
   mid-level troughing across much of eastern Canada and the upper U.S.
   Mississippi Valley through the middle and northern Atlantic
   Seaboard.  The leading edge of accompanying lower/mid tropospheric
   cooling and drying is forecast to advance across the northern and
   middle Atlantic Seaboard, while stalling across the Gulf Coast
   states.

   Along and south of the front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air
   and daytime heating may once again contribute to a corridor of
   moderately large CAPE, across portions of eastern Texas, Louisiana
   and Mississippi into the southern Appalachians by Monday afternoon. 
   However, this will be focused within weak flow and shear to the
   south of the westerlies.

   The potential for heavy precipitation loading may contribute to some
   risk for downbursts in scattered convection across the Southeast
   Monday afternoon and evening, while deep boundary layer mixing also
   contributes to a risk for downbursts in scattered thunderstorms
   across parts of the Southwest and northern intermountain region. 
   Overall, though, this is generally expected to remain rather sparse
   in coverage, with probabilities for severe gusts still appearing
   less than 5 percent.

   ..Kerr.. 06/25/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z