SPC AC 080758

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
   U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night.

   ...Discussion...
   In the wake of a broad, but weakening, cyclone forecast to slowly
   migrate east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes region, and
   downstream of amplified ridging within the split westerlies across
   the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level troughing appears likely
   to encompass much of North America through this period.  A couple of
   significant short wave perturbations digging to the east of the
   ridging will contribute to the maintenance of this troughing.  One,
   emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is forecast to
   progress inland of Pacific Northwest through the Sierra Nevada into
   eastern Great Basin/Colorado Plateau vicinity by 12Z Thursday. 
   Another, emerging from the northern Canadian Arctic vicinity, is
   forecast to turn southward into the Canadian Prairies and Rockies.

   In lower levels, a cold front trailing the lead cyclone appears
   likely to advance away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, while
   stalling and weakening near the Florida Straits/Keys vicinity
   through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  At the same time, surface
   troughing may begin to deepen to the lee of the southern Rockies
   through the lower Rio Grande Valley, accompanied by modest boundary
   layer moistening and northward return across the western Gulf of
   Mexico.  This may include surface dew point increases to around 60F
   near Texas coastal areas by late Wednesday night, beneath relatively
   warm, dry and capping lower/mid-tropospheric air.

   Beneath cold air across the Pacific Northwest, which may include an
   inland spreading cold core (around -35 C at 500 mb), some convection
   capable of producing lightning appears possible near coastal areas
   early in the period.  Inland of the coast, probabilities for
   lightning appear increasingly negligible, due to a lingering
   generally cooler and drier boundary layer.  However, convection with
   a flash or two of lightning might not be out of the question across
   parts of the northern Sierra Nevada and Sacramento Valley Wednesday
   afternoon and evening.

   ..Kerr.. 01/08/2024

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