SPC AC 230829
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Monday across the CONUS.
...Discussion...
A persistent western U.S. long-wave trough is progged to remain in
place Monday, while anticyclonic westerlies prevail over most of the
East. A short-wave trough -- ejecting from the western long wave --
is expected to deamplify with time as it shifts east-northeastward
out of the central and southern Plains, and crosses the Midwest/Ohio
Valley region into the evening and overnight. Meanwhile, a second
short-wave trough -- elongated in a north-south orientation along
the western NOAM Coast early -- is forecast to shift gradually
inland.
As this western feature slowly progresses, showers -- and areas of
occasional/embedded lightning -- are expected, from the West Coast
states into the Great Basin/Four Corners states. Meanwhile, showers
and scattered thunderstorms will spread across the southeastern
quarter of the country -- as far north as the Ohio Valley and
Mason/Dixon line.
Early in the period, a few stronger storms may be ongoing across the
Arklatex region, near an Arkansas surface low and trailing cold
front. Any lingering/low-end severe risk appears at this time
insufficient to warrant any severe-weather probabilities. As the
low/front, and associated area of convection -- continues eastward
into a more stable environment, potential for robust convection
should gradually diminish with time.
..Goss.. 01/23/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z