SPC AC 160659

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0159 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A marginal severe threat will be possible on Wednesday in parts of
   the central and northern Plains into the mid Missouri Valley.

   ...Central and Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
   A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the central and
   northern Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass should
   be in place across the central and northern Plains where surface
   dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s F. In response
   to surface heating, a corridor of moderate instability appears
   likely to develop across parts of the region Wednesday afternoon.
   The models including the ECMWF, NAM and GFS are not in agreement
   concerning where the greatest instability will develop. The ECMWF
   model was the compromise solution with a gradient of moderate
   instability located from northwest Missouri into southern South
   Dakota which seems to be the most favorable scenario. Under this
   setup, thunderstorms would develop in southern South Dakota and move
   southeastward across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa during the
   late afternoon and early evening. Marginally severe wind and hail
   would be the primary threats.

   ..Broyles.. 07/16/2018

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