Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 2 Outlook   Day 4 - 8 Outlook >
Jul 21, 2018 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Jul 21 07:04:13 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180721 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20180721 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 210704

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0204 AM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS
   INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong thunderstorms may impact interior and Atlantic coastal areas
   of the Florida Peninsula Monday, accompanied by some risk for severe
   weather.

   ...Discussion...
   South of the far northern tier of the western into central U.S.,
   subtropical ridging appears likely to remain prominent through this
   period, with the highest mid-level heights becoming centered near
   the Arizona/New Mexico border.  Mid/upper ridging also appears
   likely to remain strong across much of the Northeast.  The ridging
   may begin to pinch off the northern portion of lingering troughing
   east of the Mississippi Valley, within an elongated mid-level
   cyclonic circulation within the troughing redeveloping southward
   across the Tennessee Valley into the eastern Gulf states. 

   Modest cyclonic mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of this
   circulation may enhance diurnal thunderstorm development across
   interior and Atlantic coastal areas of the Florida Peninsula, where
   moderately large CAPE may develop with insolation by midday Monday. 
   This activity may pose some severe weather potential, mostly in the
   form of potentially damaging wind gusts, before diminishing late
   Monday afternoon or evening.

   Otherwise, generally weak to modest instability and weak/uncertain
   synoptic forcing currently seems likely to minimize severe weather
   potential elsewhere across the nation.

   ..Kerr.. 07/21/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 21, 2018
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities