SPC AC 150707
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday across the
Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia.
...Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia...
A weak surface low will be located near Mobile Bay early Saturday,
with a cold front trailing to the southwest across the northwest
Gulf of Mexico into far southern Texas. A warm front will extend
across the FL Panhandle/northern FL, and is forecast to lift
northward toward southern GA during the day. Dewpoints in the 60s
beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will support weak to moderate
instability across the Panhandle into southern GA. However,
destabilization may be inhibited somewhat by likely widespread
showers and thunderstorms ongoing in low-level warm advection. It is
unclear how much surface-based convection may develop due in part to
several rounds of thunderstorms between the Day 1 and Day 3 period.
Furthermore, deep-layer flow will remain nearly parallel to the
front, and in the absence of stronger upper level forcing,
convection will tend to track toward the cool side of the surface
boundaries and tend toward clusters/linear modes. Nevertheless,
supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings,
especially near the warm front. Elevated storms appear most likely
at this time, posing a threat mainly for hail. However, should any
storms develop and become rooted near the warm front and become
surface-based, an isolated severe storm capable of strong gusts or
even a tornado will be possible.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z