SPC AC 250647
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Monday through Monday night.
Large-scale flow will remain split across the northeastern Pacific
and northwestern North America vicinity, but the mid-level high
initially centered near the southern Alaska/Yukon border may weaken
during this period. Models suggest that the lingering low to its
south may remain fairly vigorous while continuing to gradually
accelerate toward the Pacific Northwest coast, but it appears that
the mid-level cold core will remain offshore through early Tuesday.
Downstream, it appears that the westerlies will converge into a
northwesterly regime from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into broad
mid-level troughing across much of eastern Canada and the upper U.S.
Mississippi Valley through the middle and northern Atlantic
Seaboard. The leading edge of accompanying lower/mid tropospheric
cooling and drying is forecast to advance across the northern and
middle Atlantic Seaboard, while stalling across the Gulf Coast
Along and south of the front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air
and daytime heating may once again contribute to a corridor of
moderately large CAPE, across portions of eastern Texas, Louisiana
and Mississippi into the southern Appalachians by Monday afternoon.
However, this will be focused within weak flow and shear to the
south of the westerlies.
The potential for heavy precipitation loading may contribute to some
risk for downbursts in scattered convection across the Southeast
Monday afternoon and evening, while deep boundary layer mixing also
contributes to a risk for downbursts in scattered thunderstorms
across parts of the Southwest and northern intermountain region.
Overall, though, this is generally expected to remain rather sparse
in coverage, with probabilities for severe gusts still appearing
less than 5 percent.
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