SPC AC 010618

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0118 AM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong storms may affect parts of the Carolinas and Oregon on
   Tuesday, but severe potential appears limited.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large area of mainly weak cyclonic flow aloft will persist over
   the eastern CONUS on Tuesday, with an upper low over IN. An embedded
   wave will move northward across the Mid Atlantic during the day,
   with 35-40 kt midlevel winds. To the west, a ridge will remain over
   the Great Basin, but heights will fall along the Pacific Coast as a
   shortwave trough approaches late.

   At the surface, a front will linger across the northern Gulf of
   Mexico, curling northeastward across the coastal Carolinas.
   Low-level moist advection is possible over the eastern Carolinas in
   association with increasing southerly 850 mb winds, and this will
   also enhance shear. However, models vary how far inland this will
   occur.

   ...Mid Atlantic...
   Scattered showers and storms are likely to be ongoing throughout the
   day over the eastern Carolinas given aforementioned moisture
   advection. Heating may be severely limited, and destabilization
   uncertain. If enough instability can develop, either by increasing
   dewpoints or pockets of heating, a threat of marginally severe
   storms could develop with 100-200 m2/s2 effective SRH, most likely
   over far eastern NC. At this time, the threat is too conditional to
   introduce a risk area.

   ...OR...
   A surface trough is forecast to develop over central/eastern WA and
   OR during the day, where strong heating will occur. Lapse rates
   aloft will also remain steep with around -10 C at 500 mb. Isolated
   afternoon storms are expected as CIN is removed, primarily over
   central OR. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, with
   around 35 kt effective shear. This may favor a few cells capable of
   marginal hail or isolated severe gusts. However, boundary-layer
   moisture content will be questionable, thus will maintain general
   thunder at this time.

   ..Jewell.. 08/01/2021

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