SPC AC 160659
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
A marginal severe threat will be possible on Wednesday in parts of
the central and northern Plains into the mid Missouri Valley.
...Central and Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the central and
northern Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass should
be in place across the central and northern Plains where surface
dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s F. In response
to surface heating, a corridor of moderate instability appears
likely to develop across parts of the region Wednesday afternoon.
The models including the ECMWF, NAM and GFS are not in agreement
concerning where the greatest instability will develop. The ECMWF
model was the compromise solution with a gradient of moderate
instability located from northwest Missouri into southern South
Dakota which seems to be the most favorable scenario. Under this
setup, thunderstorms would develop in southern South Dakota and move
southeastward across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa during the
late afternoon and early evening. Marginally severe wind and hail
would be the primary threats.
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