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< Day 2 Outlook   Day 4 - 8 Outlook >
Feb 16, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 16 19:23:51 UTC 2025 (Print Version | 20250216 1930Z Day 3 shapefile | 20250216 1930Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 161923

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0123 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
   SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve
   across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly
   Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper short-wave trough, digging southeastward across the Four
   Corners states early in the period, will gradually turn eastward as
   it emerges into the central/southern Plains region Tuesday afternoon
   and evening.  Overnight, the feature will move quickly eastward,
   reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area late.

   At the surface, a weak wave is forecast to reside over Texas at the
   start of the period, along the main baroclinic zone separating the
   continental/Arctic airmass over the Plains from the maritime/Gulf
   airmass drifting northward into the Gulf Coast region.  This wave is
   forecast to move slowly eastward through the afternoon, with a
   southward surge of the Arctic airmass to occur in its wake.  By the
   end of the period, the low will likely have reached the central Gulf
   Coast region, with the cold Arctic airmass having surged southward
   across most if not all of Texas, and the lower Mississippi Valley
   area, by 12Z Wednesday.

   ...Southeastern Texas across southern Louisiana...
   As the weak surface wave moves eastward across Texas ahead of the
   progressive upper trough, persistent southerly flow will advect
   higher theta-e air northward into the south-central CONUS.  With a
   cool/stable surface-based airmass expected to remain resistant to
   erosion, most of the destabilization resulting from the theta-e
   advection will likely remain elevated.  Still, above-surface CAPE
   development will be sufficient to support convective development,
   though likely not to begin in earnest until after dark.  Initial
   development should occur over eastern Texas and the Arklatex, with a
   couple of the strongest storms perhaps capable of producing marginal
   hail.  Storms will spread eastward with time overnight, into the
   lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast region, with
   continuation of low-probability hail risk.  Late in the period, some
   erosion of the low-level stable air may occur in coastal areas of
   Louisiana, which would potentially yield some low-end tornado
   potential.  However, this scenario remains uncertain at this time.

   ..Goss.. 02/16/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

        
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Page last modified: February 16, 2025
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