SPC AC 310730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
   SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WEST TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail,
   strong gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible Friday afternoon
   and evening across parts of the southern High Plains.

   ...Central/Southern Plains vicinity...

   A mid/upper shortwave trough over northern Mexico and the southern
   Rockies will shift east into the southern Plains on Friday. Stronger
   west/southwesterly mid/upper flow compared to recent events is
   expected across parts of southeast NM into west TX, with 40-50 kt at
   500 mb. Southeasterly low-level flow will contribute to favorable
   vertically veering profiles, resulting in effective-shear values
   around 40+ kt. This will favor organized convection with at least
   isolated supercells possible. Vertical shear will weaken with
   northward extent toward the OK/TX Panhandles and eastern CO/western
   KS. Surface dewpoints in mid 60s F (low 60s further north) beneath a
   plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will foster strong
   destabilization, and a corridor of MLCAPE values to around 2000-3000
   J/kg is expected.

   Confidence in severe potential with northward extent into the
   central High Plains is lower, given several rounds of convection
   across parts of southeast CO/western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles
   leading into Friday. Furthermore, weaker shear with northward extent
   suggests severe potential will be lower compared to further south.
   Currently, the best overlap of moderate vertical shear and stronger
   instability, along with an assist via large-scale ascent offered by
   the ejecting shortwave trough, appears to be focused from southeast
   NM into the southwest TX vicinity. All severe hazards will be
   possible across this corridor, with initial supercells possibly
   growing upscale into forward-propagating clusters or a bowing MCS
   during the evening as a low-level jet increases.

   ..Leitman.. 05/31/2023

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z