SPC AC 190637

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0137 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHEAST...CAROLINAS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts will be
   possible on Saturday from parts of Alabama northeastward into the
   Carolinas and southwest Virginia.

   ...Southeast/Carolinas/Southwest Virginia...
   An upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the
   southern Appalachian Mountains on Saturday. At the surface, a moist
   airmass will be in place across much of the Southeast including the
   Carolinas where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the upper
   60s and lower 70s F. As a result, pockets of moderate instability
   are expected to develop across parts of the region Saturday
   afternoon. A surface trough is forecast to deepen from the southern
   Appalachians southeastward into South Carolina, along which
   thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon.
   Thunderstorms will also be possible across the moist sector in the
   southern Appalachians southward into north-central Alabama and
   northern Georgia. GFS forecast soundings along the surface trough at
   Columbia, SC for 00Z on Sunday show MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg
   with 0-6 km shear near 40 kt and steep low-level lapse rates. This
   would be favorable for a marginal wind damage threat with multicells
   or supercell-like structures. At this time, the distribution of
   instability remains highly uncertain and may be determined by
   pre-existing outflow boundaries that are not identifiable yet. Due
   to the uncertainty, will keep the threat at a marginal risk for this
   outlook.

   ..Broyles.. 07/19/2018

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