SPC AC 020730
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2019
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday across parts of the
Florida Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Gradual amplification of mid/upper-level cyclonic flow should occur
on Monday across a majority of the central/eastern CONUS. Upper
ridging will likely remain prominent over the eastern Pacific. An
upper low should remain near the coast of southern CA and the
northern Baja Peninsula. Surface high pressure along the East Coast
should move eastward over the western Atlantic as a surface low
develops northeastward from the Great Lakes into Ontario/Quebec. A
cold front attendant to this low is forecast to develop southward
across the Plains through the period.
Modest low-level moisture return should occur ahead of this front
across parts of TX by Monday evening. However, the potential for
this moisture to be deep enough to support charge separation and
lightning late in the period remains unclear. Farther east, a
coastal front is forecast to remain near/just offshore the coast of
GA and NC/SC. Most guidance suggests that any thunderstorms that
form will probably remain over the Gulf Stream and off the Outer
Banks of NC.
Across the FL Peninsula, a remnant front should lift slowly
northward Monday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along
this boundary or the Atlantic sea breeze through the day. Although
mid-level flow may be slightly stronger Monday compared to prior
days, shear is expected to remain generally weak, and severe
thunderstorms are not anticipated.
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