SPC AC 270725

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple of tornadoes will be possible across parts of the central
   and northern Florida Peninsula on Thursday, in association with
   Hurricane Ian.

   ...Florida...
   Hurricane Ian is forecast to move slowly northeastward across the
   northern Florida Peninsula on Thursday, though considerable spread
   remains regarding Ian's track and forward speed (see NHC advisories
   and forecasts for more information regarding Ian). Some reduction in
   the tornado threat is possible compared to D2/Wednesday, with Ian
   expected to weaken after landfall, and a substantial midlevel dry
   slot forecast to shunt outer rain bands generally offshore of the FL
   Atlantic coast. However, low-level shear/SRH will likely remain
   favorable for embedded cell rotation, primarily east and northeast
   of Ian's track, and near/south of a persistent baroclinic zone
   draped across the northern Peninsula. A Slight Risk has been
   included across parts of the central and northern FL Peninsula,
   where the greatest risk of a couple tornadoes is currently
   anticipated. 

   ...Northern Rockies...
   A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move
   across the Pacific Northwest Thursday morning and into the northern
   Rockies during the afternoon/evening. Rather cold temperatures aloft
   and steep midlevel lapse rates will support at least isolated
   thunderstorm activity from central ID into western/central MT and
   northern WY. Limited low-level moisture should generally limit
   buoyancy, but isolated gusty winds and small hail will be possible
   with the strongest storms, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening.

   ..Dean.. 09/27/2022

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