SPC AC 040723

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0223 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Pacific Northwest into
   Idaho on Monday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A surface low is expected to be over the western Upper MI/western
   Lake Superior vicinity early Monday morning, with an attendant cold
   front extending southwestward to another low in central KS. The
   primary surface low is forecast to progress eastward across
   northeastern Ontario into southern Quebec, just ahead of its parent
   shortwave trough. Northern portion of the front will make steady
   eastward progress with the surface low. However, the southern
   portion of the front is expected to stall across KS and MO amid
   persistent low-level moisture return. Low-level convergence will be
   sustained along this boundary throughout much of the day, with
   dewpoints south of the boundary approaching 60 deg F. Even so, warm
   mid-level temperatures are expected to be in place, preventing deep
   convection and limiting thunderstorm chances.

   Farther west, a pair of shortwave troughs are expected to progress
   across the Pacific Northwest. The lead wave is expected to move
   through the region Monday morning, while the second wave approaches
   early Tuesday morning. Despite relatively cool surface temperatures
   and limited low-level moisture, cold mid-level temperatures will
   help support modest buoyancy from coastal WA/OR into southern ID.
   Consequently, isolated thunderstorms are possible along the coast
   throughout much of the period, with a few flashes also possible from
   eastern OR into southern ID during the afternoon.

   ..Mosier.. 11/04/2023

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z