SPC AC 020730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2019

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday across parts of the
   Florida Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   Gradual amplification of mid/upper-level cyclonic flow should occur
   on Monday across a majority of the central/eastern CONUS. Upper
   ridging will likely remain prominent over the eastern Pacific. An
   upper low should remain near the coast of southern CA and the
   northern Baja Peninsula. Surface high pressure along the East Coast
   should move eastward over the western Atlantic as a surface low
   develops northeastward from the Great Lakes into Ontario/Quebec. A
   cold front attendant to this low is forecast to develop southward
   across the Plains through the period.

   Modest low-level moisture return should occur ahead of this front
   across parts of TX by Monday evening. However, the potential for
   this moisture to be deep enough to support charge separation and
   lightning late in the period remains unclear. Farther east, a
   coastal front is forecast to remain near/just offshore the coast of
   GA and NC/SC. Most guidance suggests that any thunderstorms that
   form will probably remain over the Gulf Stream and off the Outer
   Banks of NC.

   Across the FL Peninsula, a remnant front should lift slowly
   northward Monday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along
   this boundary or the Atlantic sea breeze through the day. Although
   mid-level flow may be slightly stronger Monday compared to prior
   days, shear is expected to remain generally weak, and severe
   thunderstorms are not anticipated.

   ..Gleason.. 11/02/2019

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z