SPC AC 060730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday across
   parts of the Southeast and northern Rockies.

   ...Southeast...
   Large-scale upper troughing will continue over much of the eastern
   CONUS on Thursday, with a closed upper low remaining over New
   England. At the surface, a weak cold front is forecast to shift
   southward through the day as an embedded shortwave trough moves
   across the TN Valley and Carolinas. Moderate instability and
   sufficient deep-layer shear to support organized convection should
   be present in a narrow corridor along and just south of the front
   across parts of GA into north FL. Multicell clusters capable of
   producing damaging winds and some hail may occur as thunderstorms
   develop along the boundary and move southward Thursday afternoon and
   evening. Some potential for upscale growth into an MCS also appears
   possible. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be somewhat weaker farther
   west across the Deep South into the lower MS Valley. Have therefore
   confined the Marginal Risk to parts of GA into north FL and
   vicinity.

   ...Northern Rockies...
   High-based convection should develop Thursday afternoon across parts
   of the northern Rockies, on the northern periphery of an upper low
   expected to remain over the Great Basin. Although winds through the
   troposphere should remain fairly modest, around 20-30 kt of
   deep-layer shear should be enough to foster modest convective
   organization. A fairly moist low-level airmass, with surface
   dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s, is also forecast across parts
   of eastern WA into northern ID and western MT. As low-level lapse
   rates steepen with diurnal heating and weak to moderate instability
   develops, convective downdrafts may produce isolated severe wind
   gusts.

   ..Gleason.. 06/06/2023

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z