SPC AC 020702

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 AM CDT Mon Aug 02 2021

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The threat for severe storms appears low across the USA on
   Wednesday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A weakening upper low will exist over KY and OH on Wednesday, with
   cyclonic flow aloft from the Deep South into the Mid Atlantic.
   Midlevel temperatures will remain relatively cool from the OH Valley
   to the Appalachians, but warming aloft will occur across the middle
   and lower MS Valley.

   To the west, an upper high will remain over the Mojave Desert, with
   ridge extending north into Alberta. A shortwave trough over the
   Pacific Ocean will move ashore across northern CA and OR by early
   Thursday morning, with cooling aloft and 50 kt midlevel winds.
   Strong heating will steepen lapse rates over OR during the
   afternoon, and a weak low may provide a focus for a few high-based
   storms capable of gusty winds or small hail. Severe storms are
   unlikely overnight due to loss of heating, and despite height falls.

   A surface ridge will remain over the mid MS/OH Valleys, providing
   stable conditions. A front will remain nearly stationary from the TX
   and northern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas where several bouts
   of rain and storms are expected with 70s F dewpoints. Shear will
   remain weak and heating minimal across the Southeast, thus severe
   weather is not expected.

   ..Jewell.. 08/02/2021

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