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< Day 2 Outlook   Day 4 - 8 Outlook >
Jun 25, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 25 07:25:42 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240625 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20240625 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 250725

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MT
   INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHEAST WY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Montana into the
   western Dakotas on Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms are
   also possible across the central Plains.

   ...Northern Rockies into the northern/central High Plains...
   A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to
   move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies during the day
   on Thursday, and into northern High Plains by Thursday night. A
   surface low is forecast to deepen across southeast MT during the
   day, and then move east-southeastward toward western/central SD.
   Low-level southeasterly flow will support moisture return into
   eastern MT and the western Dakotas. 

   Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop by late afternoon
   across the western Dakotas into eastern MT, with at least modest
   destabilization possible farther west into central MT. Storm
   coverage is expected to increase across parts of western/central MT
   through the day, with development possible within the more-unstable
   environment across eastern MT and the western Dakotas by late
   afternoon into early evening. Increasing mid/upper-level flow will
   support sufficient effective shear for organized convection,
   including the potential for a few supercells. Large hail and
   strong/severe gusts will be possible, along with some threat for a
   tornado or two. Some upscale growth may occur during the evening,
   with at least an isolated severe threat potentially persisting
   Thursday night as storms move eastward across the Dakotas.  

   ...Central Plains...
   Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing
   Thursday morning across parts of the central Plains. In the wake of
   the morning convection, a surface boundary is expected to move
   northeastward as a warm front, aided by a moderate southerly
   low-level jet. At least isolated storm development will be possible
   during the afternoon near the warm front, and also farther west near
   a diffuse dryline. Midlevel flow will be weaker with southward
   extent, but deep-layer shear will still be sufficient for some storm
   organization within a moderately buoyant environment. A mixture of
   cells and clusters is expected, including potential for a couple
   supercells. With rather warm temperatures aloft, hail potential
   could be limited to some extent, but at least isolated hail may
   occur, along with strong to severe gusts. Some tornado threat could
   also evolve with any supercell near the effective warm front.

   ...Carolinas into Georgia...
   Moderate destabilization is forecast Thursday along/ahead of a cold
   front that is currently expected to be draped from south GA into
   parts of the Carolinas. A weak upper-level trough is expected to be
   in place over the region, and scattered thunderstorms may develop
   during the afternoon into the early evening. Depending on trends
   regarding the frontal position and strength of mid/upper-level flow
   over the region, severe probabilities may eventually be needed.

   ..Dean.. 06/25/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: June 25, 2024
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