SPC AC 140728

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN
   MISSOURI...AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts
   of northeastern Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas, southwestern
   Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas.

   ...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks...
   Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to remain prominent over much
   of the western/central CONUS on Tuesday, with an upper trough/low
   moving little over the eastern states. In between these two
   features, a low-amplitude shortwave trough should move southeastward
   through the day from parts of the central Plains into the Ozarks.
   Modestly enhanced mid-level northwesterly winds attendant to the
   shortwave trough should overspread these regions by Tuesday
   afternoon. At the surface, an area of low pressure should be in
   place over OK. A cold front should move southward across the central
   Plains through Tuesday evening, while a warm front sharpens east of
   the low across the Ozarks. A dryline/surface trough should extend
   southward from the low across the southern Plains.

   A narrow corridor of moderate instability should develop from
   southeastern KS/northeastern OK into the Ozarks Tuesday afternoon
   along and south of the warm front, where most guidance suggests
   upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints should be in place. Modest
   convergence may be maximized to the northeast of the surface low by
   peak afternoon heating in the vicinity of a triple point. It appears
   that enough low-level convergence and modest large-scale ascent
   associated with the shortwave trough may exist to support robust
   surface-based thunderstorms by late Tuesday afternoon. If this
   activity forms, it would pose an isolated severe threat given
   moderate instability and adequate deep-layer shear forecast. A small
   Marginal Risk has been included to account for this possibility,
   with the southeastward extent of appreciable severe risk into AR
   Tuesday evening/night remaining rather uncertain.

   ..Gleason.. 08/14/2022

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