SPC AC 050718
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Sat Nov 05 2022
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough/low centered along the West Coast should
amplify further on Monday as it advances slowly eastward over the
western CONUS. Cold mid-level temperatures associated with this
feature may support the development of weak instability along/near
coast of OR and northern/central CA. Isolated lightning flashes may
occur with low-topped convection across these areas, with some
potential for this activity to spread inland across parts of
northern/central CA with strong forcing associated with a mid-level
Low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northward
across much of the southern/central Plains on Monday, as lee
cyclogenesis occurs over the northern/central High Plains. Weak,
elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of
TX into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South in a modest low-level warm
advection regime. The potential for isolated thunderstorms should
shift northward across the southern/central Plains Monday afternoon
through Monday night as a southerly low-level jet gradually
strengthens. This activity should also remain elevated. Deep-layer
shear is forecast to gradually strengthen Monday night across the
southern/central Plains as the upper trough approaches from the
west. But, instability is forecast to remain fairly weak (MUCAPE
generally less than 1000 J/kg), so any threat for hail with elevated
convection appears limited.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z