SPC AC 200729

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   An isolated severe threat, with potential for large hail, is
   expected Saturday night into early Sunday morning across parts of
   the southern and central Plains into the Ozarks.

   ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks...
   A mid-level trough will dig southeastward across the northern
   Rockies on Saturday and into the central Plains Saturday night.
   Moisture advection will take place during the day ahead of the
   trough across the southern Plains and Ozarks. By early Saturday
   evening, an axis of instability with surface dewpoints in the 50s F,
   is forecast from east Texas northward into eastern Oklahoma and
   southeastern Kansas. A cold front will advance quickly southeastward
   through the central Plains Saturday evening, as a 50 to 60 knot jet
   strengthens ahead of the front. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
   to develop late Saturday evening ahead of the front on the nose of
   the low-level jet. During the overnight period, convection is
   forecast to expand eastward from southeast Kansas across the Ozarks.
   Isolated thunderstorms may also develop further southwestward into
   northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

   Forecast soundings from 06Z to 12Z on Sunday morning along the
   instability axis have a low-level temperature inversion below 850
   mb. Across parts of southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri, MUCAPE
   is forecast to be in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, with effective
   shear from 50 to 65 knots. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are
   forecast to be around 7 C/km. This environment will likely support
   isolated supercells that are elevated, with potential for large
   hail. The greatest severe threat is expected to be after midnight,
   as the low-level jet consolidates over far northeast Oklahoma. The
   greatest severe threat is expected over southeast Kansas and
   south-central Missouri, where confidence is the greatest for
   convection initiation. Further to the southwest across parts of
   eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, convective initiation is
   more uncertain, suggesting that a severe threat there is more
   conditional.

   ..Broyles.. 03/20/2025

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z