SPC AC 020728

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH/EAST TX
   TO MO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday into Monday
   night from parts of north and east Texas to Missouri. Tornadoes and
   damaging winds should be the main hazards.

   ...Southern Great Plains to the Mid-MS Valley...
   An emerging linear MCS should develop early morning Monday (late D2
   into early D3) across parts of west TX. This should occur ahead of
   strong forcing for ascent attendant to a shortwave impulse and
   intense mid-level speed max moving through the basal portion of a
   Southwest trough. Guidance consensus continues to indicate a
   positive-tilt ejection of this wave across the Great Plains. This
   should yield meridional deep-layer flow predominantly paralleling
   the cold front moving east, to the south of the primary surface
   cyclone over the OK-TX Red River Valley advancing northeast. This
   will also support a largely asymmetrical low-level flow regime, with
   the core of the low-level jet rapidly shifting north-northeast from
   the south-central states towards the southern Great Lakes. The
   strongest 850-700 mb wind fields are expected Monday night, with
   slight deepening of the surface cyclone tracking towards the
   IA/WI/IL area. 

   The degree of instability is questionable, especially with
   north-northeast extent, given abundant preceding convection ahead of
   the probable squall line. Primary daytime severe threat will depend
   on the degree of surface heating near/north of the Red River Valley,
   as mid-level lapse rates should be weak. With the richest
   boundary-layer moisture emanating north across east TX, a focused
   corridor of greater tornado/wind potential may become clearer in
   later outlooks. Spatial extent of the wind and embedded tornado
   threat may peak during the evening from TX to MO. With time on
   Monday night, convection over the south-central states will likely
   slow its eastward advance and may yield more undercutting outflow as
   large-scale ascent quickly shifts north. The extent of severe
   potential northeast of the Ozarks will be limited by progressively
   weaker instability.

   ..Grams.. 11/02/2024

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