SPC AC 220717

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0217 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe storms with wind damage and large hail will be
   possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains and
   Arklatex.

   ...Southern Plains/Arklatex...
   An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern
   High Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
   advance southward across the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, a
   moist airmass will be in place, with surface dewpoints mostly in the
   60s F. A complex of thunderstorms is forecast to move eastward
   across parts of east Texas and the Texas Coastal Plain early in the
   period. If this complex materializes, it will have an impact on
   destabilization later in the day. Model forecasts suggest that
   moderate instability will develop by afternoon to the west of this
   complex from southwest Texas northeastward into the Texas Hill
   Country. Surface-based thunderstorm development appears most likely
   on the northern edge of the moderate instability across parts of
   central and north Texas. Additional storms may form on the cold
   front. In addition to moderate instability, forecast soundings in
   the eastern parts of the Texas Hill Country have 0-6 km shear in the
   30 to 40 knot range and show steep low to mid-level lapse rates.
   This should be favorable for severe storms with wind-damage and hail
   potential. If an MCS can become organized, then the severe threat
   could persist into the early to mid evening.

   ..Broyles.. 05/22/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z