SPC AC 050718

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0218 AM CDT Sat Nov 05 2022

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A large-scale upper trough/low centered along the West Coast should
   amplify further on Monday as it advances slowly eastward over the
   western CONUS. Cold mid-level temperatures associated with this
   feature may support the development of weak instability along/near
   coast of OR and northern/central CA. Isolated lightning flashes may
   occur with low-topped convection across these areas, with some
   potential for this activity to spread inland across parts of
   northern/central CA with strong forcing associated with a mid-level
   jet.

   Low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northward
   across much of the southern/central Plains on Monday, as lee
   cyclogenesis occurs over the northern/central High Plains. Weak,
   elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of
   TX into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South in a modest low-level warm
   advection regime. The potential for isolated thunderstorms should
   shift northward across the southern/central Plains Monday afternoon
   through Monday night as a southerly low-level jet gradually
   strengthens. This activity should also remain elevated. Deep-layer
   shear is forecast to gradually strengthen Monday night across the
   southern/central Plains as the upper trough approaches from the
   west. But, instability is forecast to remain fairly weak (MUCAPE
   generally less than 1000 J/kg), so any threat for hail with elevated
   convection appears limited.

   ..Gleason.. 11/05/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z