SPC AC 280720

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0220 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

   Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
   COASTAL SC/NC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A tornado or two will be possible Friday into Friday night across
   the coastal Carolinas, in association with Tropical Cyclone Ian.

   ...Coastal Carolinas...
   Tropical Cyclone Ian is currently forecast to turn
   north-northwestward on Friday and potentially make a second landfall
   near the GA/SC border as a tropical storm (see NHC advisories and
   forecasts for more information regarding Ian). As this occurs, the
   stationary front offshore of the Carolinas is forecast to gradually
   move northward as a warm front, with modified tropical moisture and
   weak surface-based buoyancy spreading into near-coastal areas.
   Low-level shear/SRH near and to the warm side of the front may
   remain sufficient to support embedded rotating cells and potentially
   a tornado or two within convective bands that are expected to
   develop/persist within Ian's northeast quadrant. While some
   weakening of low-level shear/SRH is expected after Ian moves inland,
   some threat could spread as far north as eastern NC by Friday night
   into early Saturday morning.

   ..Dean.. 09/28/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z