SPC AC 020702
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CDT Mon Aug 02 2021
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
The threat for severe storms appears low across the USA on
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A weakening upper low will exist over KY and OH on Wednesday, with
cyclonic flow aloft from the Deep South into the Mid Atlantic.
Midlevel temperatures will remain relatively cool from the OH Valley
to the Appalachians, but warming aloft will occur across the middle
and lower MS Valley.
To the west, an upper high will remain over the Mojave Desert, with
ridge extending north into Alberta. A shortwave trough over the
Pacific Ocean will move ashore across northern CA and OR by early
Thursday morning, with cooling aloft and 50 kt midlevel winds.
Strong heating will steepen lapse rates over OR during the
afternoon, and a weak low may provide a focus for a few high-based
storms capable of gusty winds or small hail. Severe storms are
unlikely overnight due to loss of heating, and despite height falls.
A surface ridge will remain over the mid MS/OH Valleys, providing
stable conditions. A front will remain nearly stationary from the TX
and northern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas where several bouts
of rain and storms are expected with 70s F dewpoints. Shear will
remain weak and heating minimal across the Southeast, thus severe
weather is not expected.
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