SPC AC 260701

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0201 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Thursday.

   ...Synopsis...
   On Thursday, a leading shortwave trough will eject northeastward out
   of eastern MT and into SK/MB, shunting an upper ridge eastward into
   MN. To the west, a large area of cyclonic flow and cool temperatures
   aloft will remain over much of the Northwest.

   To the east, a weak upper trough will exist east of the MS River,
   providing cool temperatures aloft.  Meanwhile, a surface ridge will
   exist over much of the same areas, with high pressure extending
   southwestward out of New England.

   Low pressure will develop over the central High Plains during the
   afternoon, beneath the weak upper ridge. Shear will remain weak
   across this area, but isolated daytime thunderstorms may form during
   the peak heating hours from parts of NM and the TX Panhandle
   northward into SD. This activity should generally be non-severe as
   moisture will be limited and there will be midlevel subsidence.
   However, locally gusty outflow winds will be possible with any
   activity there.

   Elsewhere, a higher probability of storms will exist over parts of
   IN, OH, KY and TN, beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Scattered
   rain or thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day in this
   area, with a few strong gusts possible. The overall severe threat
   appears low, given dry air aloft, weak shear and modest instability.

   ..Jewell.. 09/26/2023

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