SPC AC 070730
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the
southern/central Plains on Friday, and over portions of Florida and
southern Georgia.
...Southern/Central Plains...
A southern-stream shortwave trough should move eastward from
northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern High Plains
through Friday night. This trough should help erode the persistent
upper ridge across the southern Plains, and mid/upper-level flow
should also gradually strengthen through the period. A weak surface
low is forecast to develop over southeastern CO by early Friday
evening, with a dryline extending south-southeastward from this low
across the southern High Plains.
There is still a large amount of uncertainty regarding convective
initiation along the dryline through late Friday afternoon, as
modest ascent associated with the shortwave trough will probably not
overspread the surface warm sector until Friday evening/night.
Still, moderate instability and marginally sufficient deep-layer
shear should be present across parts of the southern/central High
Plains to support some organized convection and related hail/wind
threat. For now, have confined the Marginal Risk to locations where
confidence is greatest in robust convection developing late Friday
afternoon through Friday night. A more conditional threat for severe
thunderstorms will exist farther south into west/central TX, but too
much uncertainty regarding convective initiation and cap strength
currently exists to include low severe probabilities any farther
south.
...Florida/Southern Georgia...
A weak southern-stream upper trough should advance eastward from the
Gulf of Mexico across FL on Friday. Modestly enhanced
mid/upper-level flow should accompany this feature, supporting
around 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear. Any thunderstorms that can
develop Friday afternoon along/south of a weak front in southern
GA/north FL, or along the Atlantic sea breeze, may be capable of
producing isolated damaging winds and hail.
..Gleason.. 06/07/2023
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