SPC AC 140711
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
It appears that thunderstorm development will remain limited, with
negligible risk for severe weather across the U.S. Wednesday through
Wednesday night.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing will continue
to develop inland of the Pacific coast through much of the
Intermountain West, Rockies and northern Great Plains during this
period. Within this regime, one short wave impulse emerging from
the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to progress inland of the
British Columbia coast and across the Canadian Rockies by late
Wednesday night, while a trailing perturbation digs into the
northern Pacific coast. A remnant perturbation already inland to
the southwest of the Four Corners region appears likely to
accelerate northeastward into and across the Wyoming/Colorado
Rockies, as it becomes absorbed within the evolving larger-scale
cyclonic flow.
In response to the upstream developments, and the evolution of an
increasingly prominent mid-level ridge centered over the subtropical
western Atlantic, initially amplified mid-level troughing near the
Atlantic Seaboard will tend to remain progressive, but undergo
considerable deformation near and offshore of the coast through
early Thursday. One remnant embedded perturbation may support a
developing surface wave along an associated frontal zone well
offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard. While this migrates
east-northeastward through the Atlantic, the trailing front may
linger near or just south of the Florida Keys, while
stalling/weakening across the south central Gulf of Mexico into
lower Texas coast/Rio Grande vicinity.
As the evolving upper pattern supports deepening surface troughing
to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies, the center of
initially expansive cold surface ridging to the east of the Rockies
is forecast to shift from the central Great Plains/lower Missouri
Valley to the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys vicinity. However, the
ridge likely will maintain a considerable stabilizing influence
across much of the Gulf Coast region and northwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Inland of the lower Rio Grande Valley, low-level moistening
is forecast to remain limited, and generally elevated to the east of
the higher terrain of southwest Texas into New Mexico.
Thus, despite the potential focus and forcing near the deepening
surface troughing, from eastern Colorado/western Kansas through
eastern Montana and the western Dakotas by late Wednesday night, the
risk for thunderstorm development (and potential for severe weather)
appears negligible.
..Kerr.. 10/14/2024
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