SPC AC 160730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   COLORADO/NEW MEXICO FRONT RANGE TO THE OHIO VALLEY/APPALACHIANS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday especially across
   parts of the Lower Ohio Valley and the south-central High Plains.

   ...Lower Ohio Valley...
   Current thinking is that early day thunderstorms will be ongoing
   Wednesday morning, likely aided by a convectively enhanced vorticity
   maxima as well as warm/moist advection. Downstream thunderstorm
   reintensification is expected on the southern fringes of this early
   day activity and along/south of a warm front. This should result in
   an afternoon uptick in severe storms across parts of the Lower Ohio
   Valley to the nearby Appalachians, with damaging winds and severe
   hail as the primary hazards.

   A Slight Risk is plausible in future outlook updates, although
   uncertainties regarding the extent/placement of early day convection
   and downstream impacts precludes a categorical Slight Risk at this
   time.

   ...Colorado/New Mexico Front Range and south-central Plains...
   Thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon across the
   Colorado/New Mexico Front Range and Raton Mesa vicinity. This
   scenario will be aided by modestly moist upslope trajectories.
   Modest strength mid-level westerlies atop east-southeasterly
   low-level winds could support a few supercells and sustained
   multicells capable of hail and perhaps localized severe-caliber
   winds. A loosely organized cluster of storms could evolve by early
   evening and spread east-southeastward across the south-central High
   Plains, potentially including southwest Kansas and the
   Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles.

   ..Guyer.. 05/16/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z