SPC AC 020730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur from parts of
   the northern Rockies/Plains eastward into the Midwest and Great
   Lakes regions on Monday.

   ...Northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes...
   At least scattered thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Monday
   morning across parts of the Upper Midwest associated with modest
   low-level warm advection. This activity may pose an isolated severe
   threat for hail and strong/gusty winds Monday morning as it
   continues eastward. A weak mid-level perturbation also associated
   with this convection should continue eastward across the Midwest
   into the Great Lakes through Monday evening. If sufficient low-level
   moisture can return northward ahead of the morning thunderstorms,
   they could eventually become surface based as instability gradually
   increases across the warm sector. Even though mid-level flow should
   remain fairly modest, enough deep-layer shear is forecast to support
   updraft organization and some severe potential. Current forecast
   evolution and timing of the subtle mid-level shortwave trough may be
   a little too fast for robust diurnal destabilization to occur ahead
   of it. Regardless, have included a fairly broad Marginal Risk across
   much of the Midwest into the upper Great Lakes region to account for
   one or more convective clusters that could develop and become
   capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging winds.

   Farther west across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains,
   it appears that an upper ridge will remain in place for much of the
   period. Another weak mid-level perturbation should round the apex of
   the upper ridge across these regions through Monday night. Initially
   high-based convection should spread eastward from the northern
   Rockies into the adjacent High Plains. As this convection encounters
   greater low-level moisture and instability, it should strengthen and
   pose a threat for both large hail and severe wind gusts given
   sufficient deep-layer shear for organized severe thunderstorms. This
   severe threat should persist into eastern MT and parts of the
   Dakotas through Monday evening/night. A Slight Risk has been
   included across these areas where confidence is greatest that robust
   convection will develop.

   ..Gleason.. 07/02/2022

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