SPC AC 260701
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
On Thursday, a leading shortwave trough will eject northeastward out
of eastern MT and into SK/MB, shunting an upper ridge eastward into
MN. To the west, a large area of cyclonic flow and cool temperatures
aloft will remain over much of the Northwest.
To the east, a weak upper trough will exist east of the MS River,
providing cool temperatures aloft. Meanwhile, a surface ridge will
exist over much of the same areas, with high pressure extending
southwestward out of New England.
Low pressure will develop over the central High Plains during the
afternoon, beneath the weak upper ridge. Shear will remain weak
across this area, but isolated daytime thunderstorms may form during
the peak heating hours from parts of NM and the TX Panhandle
northward into SD. This activity should generally be non-severe as
moisture will be limited and there will be midlevel subsidence.
However, locally gusty outflow winds will be possible with any
activity there.
Elsewhere, a higher probability of storms will exist over parts of
IN, OH, KY and TN, beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Scattered
rain or thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day in this
area, with a few strong gusts possible. The overall severe threat
appears low, given dry air aloft, weak shear and modest instability.
..Jewell.. 09/26/2023
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