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May 25, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat May 25 07:27:52 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240525 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20240525 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 250727

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0227 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS MUCH
   OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
   PANHANDLE...MUCH OF MARYLAND...VIRGINIA AND NORTH
   CAROLINA...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms may develop Monday afternoon, and overspread
   much of the Mid Atlantic accompanied by a risk for damaging wind
   gusts into Monday evening.

   ...Synopsis...
   Models indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo amplification
   across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America
   into and through this period.  Monday into Monday night, this is
   forecast to include digging troughing offshore of the Pacific
   Northwest coast, to the south of a broad low developing over the
   northeastern Pacific, and downstream ridging building across and to
   the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies.  

   Farther downstream, it appears that larger-scale troughing will
   continue to evolve east of the upper Mississippi Valley into the
   northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard.  One significant embedded
   short wave may pivot north-northeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay,
   accompanied by a relatively compact, but deep surface cyclone.  A
   trailing perturbation is forecast to pivot eastward and
   northeastward through the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region,
   with increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow likely
   overspreading the Mid Atlantic region during the late afternoon and
   evening.

   While surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Blue Ridge during
   the day in response to this forcing, a cold front trailing the
   cyclone likely will advance toward the Appalachians, as well as into
   the Gulf States, before progressing into the Atlantic Seaboard
   Monday night.

   ...Mid Atlantic...
   Remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air may overspread the
   southern through middle Atlantic Seaboard during the day, in advance
   of the approaching short wave trough.  This may contribute to
   moderately large CAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg, where surface dew points
   remain in the mid 60s to near 70F within the deepening surface
   troughing.  As a 50+ kt mid-level jet noses northeast of the
   southern Appalachians, strengthening deep-layer shear and mean wind
   fields will contribute to an environment potentially conducive to
   organized severe thunderstorm development.

   This could include a risk for supercells, at least initially, but
   pre-frontal convection developing along or across the Appalachians
   may evolve into an increasingly organized line while spreading east
   of the Blue Ridge late Monday afternoon and evening.  As this
   occurs, severe wind gusts will probably become the primary potential
   hazard after initial, more discrete storms pose a risk for severe
   hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a risk for a tornado
   or two.

   ..Kerr.. 05/25/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: May 25, 2024
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