SPC AC 160730
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO FRONT RANGE TO THE OHIO VALLEY/APPALACHIANS...
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday especially across
parts of the Lower Ohio Valley and the south-central High Plains.
...Lower Ohio Valley...
Current thinking is that early day thunderstorms will be ongoing
Wednesday morning, likely aided by a convectively enhanced vorticity
maxima as well as warm/moist advection. Downstream thunderstorm
reintensification is expected on the southern fringes of this early
day activity and along/south of a warm front. This should result in
an afternoon uptick in severe storms across parts of the Lower Ohio
Valley to the nearby Appalachians, with damaging winds and severe
hail as the primary hazards.
A Slight Risk is plausible in future outlook updates, although
uncertainties regarding the extent/placement of early day convection
and downstream impacts precludes a categorical Slight Risk at this
...Colorado/New Mexico Front Range and south-central Plains...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon across the
Colorado/New Mexico Front Range and Raton Mesa vicinity. This
scenario will be aided by modestly moist upslope trajectories.
Modest strength mid-level westerlies atop east-southeasterly
low-level winds could support a few supercells and sustained
multicells capable of hail and perhaps localized severe-caliber
winds. A loosely organized cluster of storms could evolve by early
evening and spread east-southeastward across the south-central High
Plains, potentially including southwest Kansas and the
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