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Jul 22, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Jul 22 06:49:05 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240722 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20240722 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 220649

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Organized severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday.

   ...Synopsis...

   The upper trough over the upper Great Lakes vicinity will slowly
   begin to migrate east toward the lower Great Lakes and the OH Valley
   on Wednesday into early Thursday. This will result in modestly
   increasing mid/upper southwesterly flow across parts of the
   Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, especially the second half of the
   forecast period. At the surface, a cold front will sag
   south/southeast across the Mid-MS and OH Valleys. Meanwhile, a
   surface trough is expected to extend south/southwest across
   eastern/central VA/NC. Weak vertical shear and poor convergence
   along the Midwest cold front will preclude organized severe
   thunderstorm chances. Further east, some severe potential could
   develop across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity where a very moist airmass
   will persist. However, forecast guidance depicts varying amounts of
   cloud cover and possibly early convection across the region.
   Furthermore, poor lapse rates and marginal vertical shear (around 30
   kt effective shear magnitudes) may further limit severe potential
   across parts of NC/VA into the Chesapeake Bay vicinity.

   ..Leitman.. 07/22/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: July 22, 2024
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