SPC AC 140711

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0211 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   It appears that thunderstorm development will remain limited, with
   negligible risk for severe weather across the U.S. Wednesday through
   Wednesday night.

   ...Discussion...
   Models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing will continue
   to develop inland of the Pacific coast through much of the
   Intermountain West, Rockies and northern Great Plains during this
   period.  Within this regime, one short wave impulse emerging from
   the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to progress inland of the
   British Columbia coast and across the Canadian Rockies by late
   Wednesday night, while a trailing perturbation digs into the
   northern Pacific coast.  A remnant perturbation already inland to
   the southwest of the Four Corners region appears likely to
   accelerate northeastward into and across the Wyoming/Colorado
   Rockies, as it becomes absorbed within the evolving larger-scale
   cyclonic flow.

   In response to the upstream developments, and the evolution of an
   increasingly prominent mid-level ridge centered over the subtropical
   western Atlantic, initially amplified mid-level troughing near the
   Atlantic Seaboard will tend to remain progressive, but undergo
   considerable deformation near and offshore of the coast through
   early Thursday.  One remnant embedded perturbation may support a
   developing surface wave along an associated frontal zone well
   offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard.  While this migrates
   east-northeastward through the Atlantic, the trailing front may
   linger near or just south of the Florida Keys, while
   stalling/weakening across the south central Gulf of Mexico into
   lower Texas coast/Rio Grande vicinity.

   As the evolving upper pattern supports deepening surface troughing
   to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies, the center of
   initially expansive cold surface ridging to the east of the Rockies
   is forecast to shift from the central Great Plains/lower Missouri
   Valley to the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys vicinity.  However, the
   ridge likely will maintain a considerable stabilizing influence
   across much of the Gulf Coast region and northwestern Gulf of
   Mexico.  Inland of the lower Rio Grande Valley, low-level moistening
   is forecast to remain limited, and generally elevated to the east of
   the higher terrain of southwest Texas into New Mexico.

   Thus, despite the potential focus and forcing near the deepening
   surface troughing, from eastern Colorado/western Kansas through
   eastern Montana and the western Dakotas by late Wednesday night, the
   risk for thunderstorm development (and potential for severe weather)
   appears negligible.

   ..Kerr.. 10/14/2024

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z