SPC AC 040730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
   CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday from
   parts of the northern Rockies/Plains into the Midwest, Ohio Valley,
   and Mid-Atlantic.

   ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic...
   Some thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across a portion
   of the Midwest. It remains unclear whether they will persist with
   eastward extent into the afternoon. A nearly stationary front across
   the Midwest into the OH Valley should provide a focus for severe
   convection on Wednesday. As diurnal heating occurs, strong
   instability should develop along/south of the boundary by Wednesday
   afternoon, with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized
   convection. One or more bowing clusters may move east-southeastward
   across this favorable thermodynamic environment through the period,
   with latest guidance offering a myriad of possible solutions/tracks
   to these possible MCSs. Regardless, have included a zone of Slight
   Risk equivalent severe probabilities where confidence is somewhat
   greater in robust thunderstorms occurring capable of producing
   severe/damaging winds and hail. Farther east across southern VA into
   the Carolinas, deep-layer shear is forecast to be a bit weaker.
   Still, multiple loosely organized clusters capable of producing
   mainly wind damage should occur as convection develops along/south
   of a front and spreads east-southeastward through Wednesday evening.


   ...Northern Rockies/Plains...
   Upper ridging will remain over much of the Plains through the
   period. But, a weak shortwave trough should overspread parts of the
   northern Rockies/Plains through Wednesday evening. Modest
   large-scale ascent associated with this feature should encourage
   convective development over the higher terrain initially. As this
   activity spreads into the adjacent High Plains, it will likely
   encounter greater low-level moisture and related instability.
   Deep-layer shear should be strong enough for a mix of multicells and
   supercells capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds.

   ..Gleason.. 07/04/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z