SPC AC 070714
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Sun Aug 07 2022
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Little severe weather is anticipated across the CONUS on Tuesday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will quickly move out of the
Maritimes, allowing for subtle height rises over the Northeast
during the day. To the west, an upper low with expansive area of
cyclonic flow aloft will spread east from SK/MB into ON, with 40 kt
500 mb winds into ND and northern MN by 00Z. A slow-moving cold
front will stretch from southern New England to the OH Valley and
into the Ozarks during the afternoon, with ample moisture for
daytime storms and modest instability. Shear will remain quite weak,
with primarily non-severe storms expected.
To the west, an upper high will be centered over the central
Rockies, with a ridge building northward across MT. This will occur
ahead of an upper low, which will near the OR/northern CA coast late
in the period. Forecast soundings indicate minimal SBCAPE during the
day over OR, but moistening around 700 mb and steepening lapse rates
aloft will support areas of rain and thunderstorms into the night as
cooling aloft spreads east.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z