SPC AC 280720
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
A tornado or two will be possible Friday into Friday night across
the coastal Carolinas, in association with Tropical Cyclone Ian.
Tropical Cyclone Ian is currently forecast to turn
north-northwestward on Friday and potentially make a second landfall
near the GA/SC border as a tropical storm (see NHC advisories and
forecasts for more information regarding Ian). As this occurs, the
stationary front offshore of the Carolinas is forecast to gradually
move northward as a warm front, with modified tropical moisture and
weak surface-based buoyancy spreading into near-coastal areas.
Low-level shear/SRH near and to the warm side of the front may
remain sufficient to support embedded rotating cells and potentially
a tornado or two within convective bands that are expected to
develop/persist within Ian's northeast quadrant. While some
weakening of low-level shear/SRH is expected after Ian moves inland,
some threat could spread as far north as eastern NC by Friday night
into early Saturday morning.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z