SPC AC 070730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the
   southern/central Plains on Friday, and over portions of Florida and
   southern Georgia.

   ...Southern/Central Plains...
   A southern-stream shortwave trough should move eastward from
   northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern High Plains
   through Friday night. This trough should help erode the persistent
   upper ridge across the southern Plains, and mid/upper-level flow
   should also gradually strengthen through the period. A weak surface
   low is forecast to develop over southeastern CO by early Friday
   evening, with a dryline extending south-southeastward from this low
   across the southern High Plains.

   There is still a large amount of uncertainty regarding convective
   initiation along the dryline through late Friday afternoon, as
   modest ascent associated with the shortwave trough will probably not
   overspread the surface warm sector until Friday evening/night.
   Still, moderate instability and marginally sufficient deep-layer
   shear should be present across parts of the southern/central High
   Plains to support some organized convection and related hail/wind
   threat. For now, have confined the Marginal Risk to locations where
   confidence is greatest in robust convection developing late Friday
   afternoon through Friday night. A more conditional threat for severe
   thunderstorms will exist farther south into west/central TX, but too
   much uncertainty regarding convective initiation and cap strength
   currently exists to include low severe probabilities any farther
   south.

   ...Florida/Southern Georgia...
   A weak southern-stream upper trough should advance eastward from the
   Gulf of Mexico across FL on Friday. Modestly enhanced
   mid/upper-level flow should accompany this feature, supporting
   around 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear. Any thunderstorms that can
   develop Friday afternoon along/south of a weak front in southern
   GA/north FL, or along the Atlantic sea breeze, may be capable of
   producing isolated damaging winds and hail.

   ..Gleason.. 06/07/2023

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z