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Jun 14, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 14 07:00:50 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240614 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20240614 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 140700

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong and a few severe storms are expected Sunday evening
   and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper
   Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper trough will develop further over much of the western CONUS
   on Sunday, as a leading and potent shortwave trough skirts northern
   MT and ND with the parent low moving into MB. Moderate southwest
   winds aloft will remain over much of the northern Plains and upper
   MS valley during the day, with rising heights over the Great Lakes
   as the eastern ridge builds. Meanwhile, heights will generally lower
   over much of the West with an upper low over northern ID.

   At the surface, a front will move into the upper MS Valley as the
   primary surface low moves northward across MB. This front will
   become nearly stationary from WI into NE late in the day and
   overnight, while a large surface ridge remains over the Southeast.
   Southwest winds will aid moisture advection from the OH and mid MS
   Valley northward into MN, WI, and the upper Great Lakes toward the
   vicinity of the stationary front. Early warm advection and lift with
   the low-level jet will aid morning rain and storms from WI into MI,
   with generally weak lift for much of the day points west. 

   ...Central high Plains toward the upper Great Lakes...
   Storms are likely from parts of WI into MI early on Sunday as 60 kt
   westerly 850 mb winds aid theta-e advection, resulting in
   substantial elevated instability along with lift. Some of this
   activity could contain hail as it moves quickly east during the day.

   To the west, lift will be weak for much of the day as the lead
   trough and low lift well north of the area. By evening and into the
   overnight, conditions appear favorable for scattered storms along
   and north of the surface front extending roughly from eastern WY
   into Upper MI. Here, 40 kt midlevel winds parallel to the front,
   along with elevated CAPE over 2000 J/kg will likely support areas of
   hail through the night.

   ..Jewell.. 06/14/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: June 14, 2024
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